AccuScore On SportsFanLive

By Stephen Oh and Jonathan Lee

AccuScore approves of Andy Reid’s decision to stick with Michael Vick as the starting quarterback.  The Eagles’ playoff chances are 8.8% better with Vick starting over Kevin Kolb for the rest of the season.

The NFC East is forecasted to be extremely close regardless of who start at quarterback for Philly. In the overall season projection the switch at quarterback makes the Eagles go from having the third best chance of winning the division to the number one spot.

The move was not an easy one to make when taking contracts into account as the Eagles signed Kolb to a lucrative two-year extension back in April. Kolb signed for $12.25 million, but $11.4 million of that is guaranteed for THIS season. Vick on the other hand has an incentive-laden non-guaranteed contract that will more than likely increase in price for Philly now that he is the full-time starter.

Everyone loves the new guy.  It’s especially true for back-up quarterbacks, and in baseball it’s true for hotshot prospects every spring.  Every year though, fantasy players jump a bit overboard looking for the next big thing and reach for prospects without defined roles, are too far from the majors, or simply not as good as their press clippings.  Here is a quick look at some rookies that could be interesting in fantasy this season.

Jason Heyward – OF, Atlanta
If there is one rookie to own in fantasy this year, this is the guy.  Conventional wisdom would say Heyward would return to the minors at least to start the year, but this is not a conventional player.  Universally seen as the top position player prospect in baseball, Heyward is a freak of nature.  He is still just 20 years old, but stands 6’4’’ and is up to 235 lbs. He also has been crushing balls this spring drawing rave reviews from everyone, and leading to comparisons to Albert Pujols from opposing managers.  Currently AccuScore has a conservative projection of 50% playing time with close to a .300 average and 13 home runs.  If he wins a job out of spring, he should be the true breakout star fantasy owners are looking for.  With Melky Cabrera, Matt Diaz and Eric Hinske being his main competition, RF looks like the perfect spot for Heyward in 2010.

Desmond Jennings – OF, Tampa Bay
Here is the classic case of a top prospect that fantasy owners should temper expectations for.  While viewed as a top 10 prospect, Jennings might not see a major league field this season.  Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton have two OF spots locked up, and Matt Joyce, and Gabe Kapler are very serviceable.  Jennings isn’t draftable in all but the deepest mixed leagues (unless you’re in a keeper/dynasty league of course).

Scott Sizemore – 2B, Detroit
Sizemore is the likely starter at 2B, and playing time is the key to success for any prospect.  He is not flashy, but put up solid numbers in the minors hitting .297.  More importantly he had a career .383 OBP which could lead to a decent run total in Detroit.  Sizemore has average speed, but could get you around 15-20 stolen bases with a full season of work.  He’s worth a look in AL-only leagues.

Brandon Wood – 3B, Anaheim
It’s probably now or never for Wood with the Angels. The loss of Chone Figgins leaves the 3B job to Wood, and we project him to hit .265 with solid power about 20 home runs. His problem has always been a long swing that leads to strikeouts, something he improved on last season. Wood is probably ready for a major league role, but I personally get the feeling the Angels don’t trust him and that Mike Scioscia flat-out doesn’t like him (as a player). For some reason, Scioscia seems to prefer Macier Izturis. A trade to another team would probably improve his fantasy outlook.

Drew Stubbs – OF, Cincinnati
Stubbs will probably face some competition for the CF job from Chris Dickerson, but he is likely to win a starting spot. We currently project Stubbs for a .277 average with 30 steals and more than 80 runs.  That is a useful fantasy player.  His does have a problem with strikeouts, and hit just .202 on the road in about 200 major-league at-bats last season. However, he is just 25 and will have time and opportunity this season.  He could be a nice late-round pick-up.

Tommy Manzella – SS, Houston
The fact that he will be the starting SS for the Astros should be an indictment on the entire franchise.  Manzella posted a career .321 OBP in the minors.  He is all-glove and no-hit, somebody you don’t want to own in fantasy.

Michael Brantley – OF, Cleveland
The signing of Russell Branyan might leave Brantley without a job pushing Matt LaPorta to LF. Still, Brantley is a name to remember for later in the year.  He hit .313 during a September call-up, and is a career .300 avg / .383 OBP hitter in the minors with plus speed.  With a full season of work he could hit for a solid average with 40 steals and good run totals (but without much power).

Almost a year to the day (1/24/09) after originally tearing his MCL and ACL in his left knee, Michael Redd suffered a repeat of the same injury against the Lakers on Sunday.  He will be out for the season once again.

On the surface, this seems like a cruel, crippling blow to a young and an improving Bucks team.  When looking at AccuScore’s simulations, this injury could be considered almost an afterthought.  That is shocking considering Redd is a former All-Star, and one of the highest paid players in the league.  He is also considered one of the best perimeter shooters in the game, even being named to the U.S. National Team specifically for his outside shot.

Coming off injury this season however, Redd has been a shell of his former self.  Outside of a short 6-game rookie stint in this 2000-01, this has been Redd’s worst season.  He was shooting a career-low 35.2% from the field, over 9% worse than his next lowest performance (44.3% in 07-08).  To compound matters, he is shooting just 30.0% from three-point range.  Redd’s next worst season was 35% way back in 03-04, ironically his All-Star season.  His shooting woes extend even to free throw line (71.2%).  He had never shot below 79% before.

His poor shooting has led to a precipitous drop in his scoring average to 11.9 points a night, down from his career 20.3 average.  Because of this, the Bucks actually are affected very little by the loss of Redd.  With Redd in the lineup, Milwaukee was projected to win 33 total games (currently 15-20 record) with a 26.6% chance of reaching the playoffs.  Without Redd in the lineup, the Bucks are projected to win 33 games with a 26.5% chance at the postseason – no change.

The injury is a tough break for a player that made himself into an All-Star through his own hard work.  Redd was more of a slasher in college, and his size for the two-guard spot was questioned coming into the NBA leading to him falling to the 43rd pick in 2000.  Redd though is not the same player after his knee injury, and the Bucks can survive on the court for the rest of this season without him just fine.