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The Cardinals had already suffered an injury to a superstar losing Adam Wainwright before the season. Now leftfielder Matt Holliday is out after surgery Friday for an emergency appendectomy.

There is reason for hope however for St. Louis. Holliday could potentially be out as little as two weeks. The team did not immediately put him on the disabled list just in case he could return earlier. In the mean time, Jon Jay and Allen Craig should adequately fill in over the next two weeks.

Even if Holliday is out for a full month, it’s not the end of the world for the Cards. Below is the impact of this injury. Losing Holliday for a sixth of the season cost them only 0.8 wins and -1.7 percent at the division. If he can return earlier, those numbers would be even smaller.

AccuScore is still undergoing our preparations for the Major League Baseball season, but we now have our early win total forecasts for every team. Keep in mind these numbers are preliminary so check back after the weekend for up-to-date information before the start of the season.

Some quick thoughts on the lines looking at the AccuScore projections:

Philadelphia Phillies – 97 Line, 97.6 Projection
The Phillies are the massive favorite in the National League with their win total set at 97. No other NL team has a line set within 8.5 wins of them (the Giants and Braves are second at 88). This is because of the four aces at the top of the rotation. While the starting pitching will be dominant barring injury, there are plenty of worries in the lineup. Chase Utley’s injury status is completely up in the air, and with Domonic Brown also out to start the season there is little depth on the bench. If Ben Francisco struggles in a full-time role, there is nobody else to replace him. Fans should also be concerned about the declines of Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, and Raul Ibanez. Given these risk factors, the under is probably a better bet.

Minnesota Twins – 86 Line, 94.5 Projection
The Twins have the biggest difference between their betting line and their projected line at 8.5 wins. I would caution going overboard with this pick because a big part of this projection is based on health for the five starters. There is some leeway there with Kevin Slowey being a very good sixth option that many teams would fight to include in the middle of their rotations, but there are also other question marks. Alexi Casilla will be playing shortstop full-time for the first time, and it remains to be seen how well Tsuyoshi Nishioka adjusts to the majors. Still, this franchise seems to find a way to win games every year and their status as AL Central favorites is well deserved. The Over is clearly within reach, particularly if Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan return to health. Just don’t see the +8.5 difference and bet the farm.

Baltimore Orioles – 76 Line, 70.0 Projection
There is a lot of possible leeway here with Baltimore given the youth and talent in the starting rotation. Most of that talent though appears to be at least a year away from real success especially given the difficulty of the AL East. In the spring every fanbase is optimistic about the season, and the tendency is for the public to lean towards the Over. It’s virtually mathematically impossible for every team in a division to all beat their opening lines, and at this point Baltimore is clearly the fifth team in the AL East. Derek Lee and Vlad Guerrero aren’t the same players as they used to be. I like the Under.

The latest major free agent to sign in baseball was third basemen Adrian Beltre to the Rangers.  Beltre posted one of his best seasons ever at the plate last season and parlayed that into a six-year $96 million deal.

Beltre’s 2010 line of .321/.365/.553 easily outpaced incumbent third baseman Michael Young’s line, and also provides a sizable boost on defense.  The Rangers should now have one of the best defensive infields in baseball with Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler, and Moreland/Davis.

This acquisition boosts the Rangers over three wins over a full season, and improves both their division and playoffs chances significantly. With Beltre now manning third, Young will move into a super-utility role likely filling in all around the diamond as well as at DH. Texas should have no problem keeping his bat in the lineup, and providing rest for their infield starters throughout the season.

AccuScore’s World Series preview assumes both teams will stick to their projected pitching rotations. Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum are set to square off in Games 1 and 5. C.J Wilson will stay in the second spot in the Texas rotation ahead of Colby Lewis and oppose Matt Cain. Lewis will face Jonathan Sanchez is Games 3 and 6. Tommy Hunter and Madison Bumgarner are the fourth starters. Both players are questionable to start Game 7, and would likely be on very short leashes if they were to pitch in the deciding game.

AccuScore projects the Rangers are solid favorites to win their first World Series title. Texas is winning 60 percent of simulations buoyed by the strength of Cliff Lee. The ace lefty is favored to win 57 percent of the time even against Lincecum on the road. Lee represents an even greater advantage at home with a 66-34 edge.

The Rangers are -143 favorites to win the series which translates to a 57 percent winning percentage. Since AccuScore’s percentage is higher at 60 percent, the value play for the series is with Texas.

Previously we at AccuScore was projected Lewis to move up and pitch Game 2 for the Rangers and go against Sanchez. Texas however has decided to stick with Wilson while the Giants have moved Cain to the second slot. These changes combine to slightly improve San Francisco’s chances in the second game from 54 to 56 percent. While two percent isn’t much, everything is magnified in the World Series so I’m sure Giants fans will take every advantage they can get.

Colby Lewis proved his mettle against the Yankees which is resulting in the Rangers solidly being favored in Game 3. His projected Game 6 start is also the smallest deficit for a road pitcher not named Cliff Lee in the series.

Texas, being the AL team, appears to have a nice advantage at DH with Vladimir Guerrero. Guerrero will play Game 1 in the outfield, and likely again should the series come back to San Francisco. His replacement in the outfield for the other games though is likely to be David Murphy, a very capable hitter in his own right. The Giants will employ Pat Burrell at DH against lefties (with probably Nate Schierholtz in OF) and Pablo Sandoval against righties. A couple of things to watch will be the health of Edgar Renteria and Juan Uribe for San Francisco as they have nagging injuries that could cause problems for the infielders. Andres Torres also suffered a minor groin injury against Philadelphia that bears watching. Texas appears to be mostly healthy as a team can be in October.

Even though the Rangers are favored overall, it would be beneficial for them to end the series before it reaches a seventh and deciding game. Their superior lineup gives them the advantage, but a single game situation in which every pitcher is in play leaves a lot of things to luck and random chance. The Giants obviously would also benefit in Game 7 by having the final chances at-bat.

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By Jonathan Lee, AccuScore.com

The Yankees won’t have home-field for the ALCS, but that might not matter as they are the slight favorites to win the pennant and return to the World Series. Pitching will clearly play a huge role in the outcome of this series.

By being pushed to limit by the Rays, the Rangers were unable to save Cliff Lee for the start of the ALCS. Instead, Lee will start Game 3 with C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis squaring off against CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes. Wilson and Lewis are actually projected to fare very well in the first two games at home while Lee starting the third game puts him in line to pitch a potential Game 7. Lee in the deciding final game of the series is obviously a big advantage (projected 60/40 over Andy Pettite) but it does preclude the possibility of three starts in the series or an appearance out of the bullpen.

The biggest source of angst for Yankee fans is probably the inclusion of A.J. Burnett as the fourth starter in the rotation. That fear might be slightly misplaced as New York is a 60 percent favorite in Burnett’s projected Game 4 start at home because he will be going against Tommy Hunter. While Hunter has much better season-long numbers than Burnett, he doesn’t have strikeout stuff (4.78 K/9) which is a problem against a lineup as potent as New York’s. Burnett at the very least has the talent edge, and has performed in the playoffs in the past.

Overall, Texas has the edge in the first three games of the series, and will need to jump on the Yankees to have a good shot at advancing. Lee is the trump card for the Rangers in a potential Game 7, but New York has a large forecasted advantage in games 4 through 6. The Yankees will try to end the series before it goes the distance.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota and Texas have not mathematically clinched playoff spots, but in 10,000 AccuScore simulations there were none where the Twins did not win the AL Central and the Rangers did not win the AL West. The only playoff “race” that is up in the air is Yankees vs. Rays AL East winner. The Yankees are up 0.5 games and in simulations they are finishing one game up on the Rays because in their upcoming four-game series the Yankees have home-field advantage.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Last week Colorado was coming off a huge winning streak, but AccuScore forecasted a statistical correction for Colorado and a 10-9 finish. The Rockies ended up going 3-3 this week and as a result their playoff chances dipped -2.5 percentage points. They did not lose ground in the NL West because San Francisco was just 3-3 and dipped -2.2 points and San Diego was just 3-4 and dropped -15.3 points. The only NL West team that will likely make the playoffs is the division winner. All three teams play series against each other. If one team resoundingly beats the other two, then it is unlikely that these two would get a wild card. If all three beat each other “equally” then again, none would be in a great position to catch Atlanta in the wild card race.

All NL West teams lost ground to Atlanta (4-2 this week) and Philadelphia (a perfect 6-0). The Phillies jumped +10.1 percentage points and are now the heavy favorite to win the NL East at 83.6 percent and a virtual lock at making another playoff run. Atlanta may not win the NL East but the Braves actually jumped +11.8 points (more than Philadelphia) because of their two-game lead in the wild card race. Atlanta is benefiting from the round-robin NL West with San Francisco, Colorado, and San Diego all hurting each other.

This week in the Closer Report: Hensley cleaning up for the Marlins, Takahashi, Lyon and Uehara still under-owned, and Kuo stabilizes the Dodger bullpen.

• Brandon Lyon was signed to be the closer, and since assuming the role from Matt Lindstrom he has performed well. His pitching line since August 1: 2.59 ERA, 16 strikeouts, 10 walks, 24.1 innings, 14 saves.  The walks are still higher than you’d like, but he’s been getting the job done. He’s probably the Astros closer for 2011.

• Since being promoted to the closer role, Clay Hensley has allowed just 3 hits in 6.1 innings with 3 saves.  That was on the heels of a great August when he went 2-0 with 12 strikeouts in 13 IP.  Hensley has a 2.42 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts on the season.  Pick up Hensley if you need a strikeouts and saves.  Leo Nunez has been very poor since August (8.03 ERA, 7 walks in 12 IP) so the 9th inning job will likely be an open battle next spring.

• Hisanori Takahashi is still available in 60% of ESPN standard leagues. He already has four saves in September and hasn’t allowed a run in 11 appearances.  What are you waiting for?

• The Dodgers are having a lost season, but at least Hong-Chih Kuo has been consistently dominant.  He has only been scored upon five times this year in 50 outings with a 1.36 ERA and 0.81 WHIP.  His only blown save( in 10 chances) was on 6/4, and even so he got the win. With Jonathan Broxton relegated to middle relief the rest of the year converted catcher Kenley Jansen is the back-up closer. He’s got amazing stuff with 29 strikeouts in just 18.2 innings. His inexperience (he converted to pitching in the middle of last year) is evident in his 11 walks, but he’s only allowed two runs without a home run. It will be very interesting to see what the Dodgers do with Broxton in the offseason and spring training.

• Evan Meek will get some save chances as the season winds down according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. With essentially a timeshare and less than  month’s worth of games remaining this decision effectively kills the value of both Meek and Joel Hanrahan in mixed leagues. Both are under contract for 2011 so the duo will likely battle next spring for the job.

• Being a closer suits Koji Uehara. Since recording his first save August 21 Uehara has pitched 10.1 innings. In that span he’s converted 9 of 10 saves with 11 strikeouts. Subtract a blip on 9/8 against the Yankees when he surrendered 2 runs while getting just 1 out and his ERA is 2.70.  He’s still available in far too many leagues so go get him if you need to make up ground in saves.

• Chris Perez since August 1: 16.1 IP, 1.10 ERA, 20 strikeouts, 4 walks, .185 SLG against, 8 saves. Why did the Indians sign Kerry Wood again? (I will continue to answer this question until 2011 starts)

• David Aardsma had a rough June and first half of July, but he’s been pretty much nails since giving up two runs on 7/8. Since then he’s made 20 appearances pitching 19.1 innings with a 0.93 ERA converting 13 of 14 saves. In that span he’s struck out 21 batters with 10 walks, both numbers right in line with his career numbers. While it looked like Aardsma could have been on the way out of the closer job in Seattle midseason, he looks fine going forward to keep his job heading into next season.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

The Minnesota Twins are hot at the right time going 5-1 this week and increasing their playoff chances by 9 percentage points. They were helped by Chicago who only went 3-4 and saw their playoff chances drop double digits. The Texas Rangers have been 98+ percent locks to win the AL West for over a month now so while they did not ‘need’ the wins to make the playoffs, a 5-2 week including beating Mariano Rivera in the 9^th has to help their confidence.

The only real drama in the American League is who will win the AL East. The Yankees play a 3 game series in Tampa Bay to start this week and play them 4 more times in NY next week. After all the dust settles, AccuScore still slightly favors the Yankees to ultimately win the division (they currently have a 0.5 game lead).

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The Colorado Rockies are on another ridiculous winning streak and have seen their playoff chances jump from 2.5 percent two weeks ago to nearly 30 percent today. While it may not be smart to bet against Colorado ever losing again, AccuScore still thinks that there will be a statistical correction soon and Colorado will end the season on a 10 and 9 stretch. Obviously with the Padres coming to town for a 3 game series the Rockies can continue to make San Diego’s September miserable. The Padres are still clinging to a tie in the NL West and are still holding a 52.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Giants were 5-2 and are up to a 48.4 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Rockies are not only making this tough in the NL West they have now cost Atlanta (currently 1 game behind the Phillies) quite a bit. The Braves were just 3-4 but dropped 17 percentage points. The Phillies are now 61 percent favorites to win the NL East after a 5-2 week. Cincinnati also had a bad week at 2-5 and they dropped 4.3 percentage points. However, with the Cardinals only going 3-4, Cincinnati still has a 94 percent chance of winning the NL Central and making the playoffs.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AccuScore does not see a lot of drama going down the stretch in the American League, at least in terms of who makes the playoffs. The Rays, Yankees, Rangers, and Twins all have at least a 95 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Red Sox were 3-3 this week but after losing two of three in Tampa Bay, their chances dropped in half from 12.6 to 6.4 percent.

The White Sox are a long shot to catch the Twins. While they are just 4.5 games behind, the Twins have the advantage of playing 19 home games vs just 12 on the road. Even if the White Sox get Manny Ramirez he only helps improve their chances of catching Minnesota by around 1 percentage point.

In terms of who wins the AL East, AccuScore is still favoring the Yankees at 57.8 percent over the Tampa Bay Rays at 41.3 percent. The Yankees have a tough schedule but they do have the advantage of playing more of their remaining games at home than on the road.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Unlike the AL, only two NL teams have a better than 95 percent chance of making the playoffs. The San Diego Padres are at 95.8 percent despite only having a 2-4 week including dropping 4 in a row and getting swept at home by the Phillies). They still hold a 5 game lead in the division and have the best record in the NL.

The Phillies sweeping the Padres did not have as big an impact as you would expect with Philly only seeing a +1.5 percent increase in playoff probability. The Phillies started by dropping 4 in a row at home vs the Astros which pretty much off-set any positives. By losing 4 at home to the Astros, the Phillies helped Atlanta improve their chances by 0.7 percent despite going just 2-4.

The big loser this week was the St. Louis Cardinals who are now 5 games behind the Reds with just a 15.8 percent chance of winning the division. The Cardinals saw their playoff chances cut in half from 55.5 to just 28 percent after going 2-5. The San Francisco Giants could not capitalize on the Cardinals and Phillies sub-.500 weeks because they were just 3-3 and lost 2 of 3 at home to the Diamondbacks.

This week in the Closer Report: Takahashi, Lyon, Gonzalez worth pick-ups and Jenks solidifies his role through attrition.

• Brandon Lyon has taken over for the injured Matt Lindstrom, and now has 7 saves on the season and has been very solid recently. In his last 19.1 innings Lyon has allowed 5 runs but all 5 came in a single outing against the Braves on 8/11. A couple worries for Lyon would be his 10:10 K:BB ratio in that span, unsustainable .229 BABIP (career .304), and his shaky history.  But any player can be lucky for a short period of time especially in a small sample.  There’s no real reason why Lyon can’t be fine for the rest of the year. An interesting name to watch for Houston in 2011 would be Wilton Lopez who has had a solid rookie season with a 2.61 FIP and 1.1 WAR in 56.1 IP.

• With Francisco Rodriguez out for the year, Hisanori Takahashi has taken over as closer for the Mets. Since 7/28 Takahashi has a 1.62 ERA in 16.2 IP with 19 strikeouts (0 HR allowed). His job is safe, and his performance warrants a pick-up for those needing saves in all formats.

• Juan Gutierrez came off the DL on 8/19 and promptly got a save on 8/21. I’d say he has the lead in this committee situation.

• Honestly I have no idea what Joe Torre is doing day-by-day with this entire roster in Los Angeles not to mention the closers. The good news is that Broxton and Kuo are still both terrific pitchers no matter what the yelling heads say on TV, and both are worth owning in fantasy because of strikeouts and save potential.

• Braves set-up man Takashi Saito is reportedly having trouble with his vision at night, but he is still the top option behind Wagner.

• Both Matt Thornton and J.J. Putz were put on the DL Wednesday.  Bobby Jenks never truly lost his job, but this latest news makes sure he gets the most saves for the White Sox from here on out.  Jenks has actually pitched very well recently only allowing a run in one of his last 11 appearances (11.2 IP with 15 strikeouts and 3 ER) converting 4 of 5 save opportunities. My guess would be Scott Linebrink would back up Jenks for now, but with Ozzie Guillen it wouldn’t surprise me if either Sergio Santos or Chris Sale were used despite their youth and inexperience.

• It’s still unclear who the closer in Baltimore “officially” is.  Since 8/8 when Alfredo Simon recorded his last save Simon has allowed 4 ER (3 HR) with 7 strikeouts in 6.1 IP with a blown save. Mike Gonzalez has allowed just 1 ER in 4.0 IP with 7 strikeouts. Koji Uehara actually notched a save on 8/21 and protected a 4 run lead on 8/19. If I had to own one Baltimore reliever for the rest of the season it would be Gonzalez and then Uehara.

• Chris Perez in August: 8.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 4 saves.  Why did the Indians sign Kerry Wood again?

• Andrew Bailey returned Sunday and pitched a perfect 9th in a loss to Tampa Bay. He had two strikeouts, and is fine going forward. Michael Wuertz was solid as a replacement. In 11.1 IP he had 5 saves and 16 strikeouts with a 3.97 ERA.

Troy Glaus still leads Braves with 70 RBI, but has been an offensive sinkhole since the All-Star break. In 102 at-bats Glaus has a .595 OPS and just 2 home runs. Enter Derrek Lee whom Atlanta acquired Wednesday for three minor league players. Lee had earlier rejected a trade to the Angels, but will now take over as the full-time first basemen with the Braves.

Before the trade, the Braves were projected as near locks to make the playoffs at 91.7% and 3:1 favorites to win the NL East.

Despite Lee having a disappointing year by his standards, he is hitting a robust .313 since the All-Star break with a .939 OPS. He certainly represents an upgrade over Glaus at first.  With only 43 games left in the season not much changes in the projected final standings in terms of wins and losses, but Atlanta improved its chances of a division title by 5.6%.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

A week after jumping more than 20 percentage points, the Chicago White Sox’s playoff chances suffered a severe market correction with a 34 percentage point decline in playoff probability. While a 2-5 week is always going to hurt, this week was especially bad because the White Sox were at home for six games and lost two of three to the Twins. The Twins were 5-1 and saw their playoff chances jump 20 percentage points. The Twins have a better than 88 percent chance of winning the division because they hold a three-game lead and they have six more home games than road games the rest of the season.

The Yankees were just 3-4 and their playoff chances dipped below 90 percent. The Rays were 4-2 and picked up seven percentage points as they are just one game behind. Even though they hold just a one-game lead in the AL East, AccuScore forecasts the Yankees to finish three games up. The Red Sox had a solid bounce-back week but are still a long shot to make the playoffs at just 23 percent.

The Rangers have run away with the AL West holding an 8.5 game lead. The Rangers could very well be the only team over .500 in the division by the end of the season.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The San Francisco Giants may have done all the talking before their three-game series with San Diego, but the Padres clearly won that series taking two of three. The Padres went 5-1, beat their main competitor for the division, and the Dodgers and Rockies continued to play mediocre baseball. As a result the Padres led the NL with an 18.5 percentage point increase in playoff probability and everyone’s pre-season pick for last place in the division now have an 84 percent chance of winning the division.
The Braves were a solid 4-2 and hold an 86.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. The loss of Chipper Jones had no negative impact on the team’s playoff chances. The Phillies were also 4-2, but saw their playoff chances slightly dip. The Phillies chances will improve if Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return a week or two sooner than originally expected.

In the Central, the Cardinals are one game back of Cincinnati and the Reds swept the Marlins, but the Cardinals still saw their playoff chances improve from 52 percent to 66 percent. Cincinnati went 3-3, but saw their playoff chances drop 15 points all because the three losses were at home to the Cardinals. The Reds also still have six more road games than home games the rest of the season. On average, AccuScore simulations have St. Louis finishing one game ahead of Cincinnati.

Another sparking acrobatic play Tuesday night turned out horribly wrong for Chipper Jones. Even though he recorded the out in a scoreless tie, Jones suffered a torn ACL that will knock him out for the rest of the season. After bringing up retirement earlier this year you have to wonder whether or not this is the end of his career.

Before the injury, Jones had been on a tear with a triple slash line of .400/.471/.833 in the month of August with 3 home runs. As of Wednesday night Atlanta held a 2.5 game lead over the Phillies and was projected to maintain that lead according to AccuScore projections.

While losing a veteran leader like Jones is a blow, Atlanta has the depth to absorb the loss on the field. Brooks Conrad will most likely fill in at third base for now while Omar Infante could slide in at the corner when Martin Prado returns from the DL. Conrad has hit for some pop with a .808 OPS in 101 at-bats while Infante made the All-Star team and is currently hitting .330. Because of this the forecast for the NL East remains virtually unchanged even without Jones in projections with the Phillies only 0.4% more likely to win the division.

This projection could of course change if the Braves were to suffer another injury, Infante and Conrad do not perform in expanded roles, or if Prado doesn’t return as expected. But the Phillies are also dealing with their own injury issues with a tenuous situation at first with Ryan Howard out and Ross Gload possibly headed to the disabled list himself.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

After dropping 2 of 3 to the Yankees the Red Sox find themselves with just a 14.7 percent chance of making the playoffs. New York, meanwhile, went back over the 90 percent mark in playoff probability with a nearly 75 percent chance of winning the AL East. The Rays have been strong all year on the road this season, but they dropped 5 in a row costing them 13 percent. The Rays are in a battle with the Twins and White Sox for the Wild Card. Currently less than 0.6 wins per simulation separates the 3 teams in projected win total.

The Twins are AccuScore's slight favorite to win the AL Central at 56.7 percent vs 43.3 percent for Chicago, but the White Sox had a great week. The White Sox were 4-2 (all road games) and by sweeping the Tigers in Detroit they basically eliminated them from the playoff picture. With Tampa Bay and Boston both having bad weeks, the White Sox vaulted near 22 percentage points in the playoff race.

The AL West has been largely settled for a month now. Even though they were just 3-3 the Rangers still hold a 97.6 percent chance to win the division and make the playoffs. The A's were the only AL West team with a winning record this past week (4-2) but they only have a 1.7 percent chance of catching Texas who is projected to win the division by a full 10 games.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The Phillies had a tremendous 5-1 week and have now improved their playoff chances by over 30 percentage points over the past 2 weeks. They have closed the gap from 67 to 33 percent to win the division vs Atlanta down to 56 to 43 percent. The Phillies also have the advantage of playing 7 more home games than road games the rest of the season.

The Reds also had a great 5-1 week with a +20 percentage point improvement. They currently hold a 2 game lead over the Cardinals. AccuScore still sees the Cardinals as the favored team to win the division but the difference is minimal with the Cardinals at 52.6 percent and Cincinnati at 47.4 percent.

The only team to drop more than St. Louis (-11.5 percentage points) this past week were the 2-4 Giants who were rolling before struggling on this road trip. The Giants dropped to just a 27 percent chance of winning the division, down from nearly 38 percent the prior week. The Dodgers and Rockies also saw their playoff chances drop this week while the Padres were up slightly, despite going just 3-4. The Padres benefited from the Giants bad week and the whole division suffered because the Phillies and Reds are the front-runners for the Wild Card if they do not win their respective divisions.

The next top prospect has been called up, and before you rush out to grab him in your fantasy leagues, take a moment to examine Chris Carter.  The Oakland A’s are completely out of the race with just a 1.9% chance at the playoffs according to AccuScore’s latest numbers.  And that is up from just 0.5% just last week.  Carter will fill in at 1B and OF, and management has said that when he comes up he will be up for good.  With the variety of injuries currently plaguing the A’s, playing time will probably be plentiful.  Success however might be in short supply.

Carter has hit .262/.368/.531 with 27 homers in 424 at-bats at Triple-A Sacramento in the offensively oriented PCL.  He started the season off very slowly, but has picked it up considerably since the All-Star break hitting .362 with a 1.151 OPS and 8 HR in 25 games. The downside though is clear: 124 strikeouts, a rate of nearly 30%. The power is legitimate, but he will be playing in a poor hitter’s environment in Oakland as well as Anaheim and Seattle.

The best comparable out there is probably Florida’s Mike Stanton, another prospect with huge power and problems making contact.  Stanton has a K-rate of 36% while hitting the ball a long way when he does connect (10 HR).  Expect much of the same from Carter which makes him barely on the fringe in standard mixed leagues and an AL-only play.