AccuScore On SportsFanLive

What began as the conclusion to the endless Carmelo Anthony rumors and the surprising Deron Williams trade quickly escalated into a full-blown NBA swap meet. The 2010-11 season clearly has shifted the landscape in professional basketball, and brought about perhaps the busiest trade deadline ever.

Boston and Oklahoma City pulled off the most shocking move of the day. The Thunder acquired Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson for Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic. OKC also got Nazr Mohammed from the Bobcats in a separate trade for D.J. White and Mo Peterson. The Celtics weren’t done with this move either. They sent away Luke Harangody and Semih Erden to Cleveland for draft picks, presumably to open up roster space for buyout candidates. Marquis Daniels was also traded to Sacramento for cash considerations.

The rumored trade involving Gerald Wallace from Wednesday came to fruition on deadline day. Wallace joins Portland in exchange for Joel Pryzbilla, Dante Cunningham, and draft picks. Phoenix picked up Aaron Brooks from Houston for Goran Dragic and a 1st round pick. Houston also dealt Shane Battier back to Memphis for Hasheem Thabeet and another 1st round pick. Late Wednesday night also brought about Baron Davis being sent to Cleveland in exchange for Mo Williams.

AccuScore re-simulated the rest of the regular season after the flurry of trades had passed.

BT = before trade deadline
AT = after trade deadline

Here are some key findings:

• Boston obviously still remains a lock for the playoffs, but its per game win percentage dropped -2.9 percent. More importantly, the Celtics’ chances of winning the No. 1 seed fell from 36 to 32 percent. Miami is in firm control of the East.

• Oklahoma City only improved its per game winning percentage slightly at 1.3 percent, but the full benefit of picking up two centers in Perkins and Mohammed will be more evident in the playoffs agaisnt teams like the Spurs, Lakers and Mavericks. The Thunder have long coveted a defensive center, and now have the size to deal with the Lakers and Spurs in the West.

• Charlotte is currently in 9th in the East trailing Indiana by 1.5 games. While the Bobcats lost their best player and are projected for fewer wins, they actually gained two percent in playoff probability due to the overall movement at the deadline.

• Shane Battier is not projected for big numbers with Memphis, but the Grizzlies did improve their playoff chances the most at +8.8 percent. He will serve as a nice replacement to the player he was originally traded for, Rudy Gay. Memphis also unsuccessfully tried to trade O.J. Mayo to Indiana for Josh McRoberts.

The Nets-Knicks rivalry just might come to fruition after New Jersey pulled off the shocker of the trade deadline by acquiring All-Star point guard Deron Williams from Utah.  The Nets sent rookie Derrick Favors, Devin Harris, two first-round picks, and cash to the Jazz for Williams.  The Nets then sent Troy Murphy and a second-round pick to the Warriors for Dan Gadzuric and Brandan Wright.

The deal came as a big surprise, and reportedly came together very quickly in the wake of the Carmelo Anthony trade.  While that trade barely moved the needle with regard to AccuScore’s projections for this season, the Williams trade is much more impactful.  The Jazz are currently holding on to the 8th spot in the West just half a game ahead of Memphis.  In 10,000 simulations after the trade, Utah’s playoff chances dropped from 53.4 percent to just 32.3 percent.

NEW JERSEY NETS
The Nets are significantly better with Williams manning the point guard position, and now have a true marquee player to anchor their move to Brooklyn and attract other players.  Williams is still not eligible to sign an extension, and could potentially be a free agent after the 2011-12 season.

This season though, New Jersey has virtually no shot at the playoffs trailing the 8th seeded Pacers by 9.5 games.  They would likely need to win 20 of their remaining 25 games just to reach 37 wins and have a decent chance of overtaking Indiana.  While that’s not likely, the Nets do improve by about six percentage points per game with Williams at the point.

PLAYOFF PAIRINGS AFTER TRADES
The Eastern Conference had no change in playoff standings but the Knicks’ chances did increase +7.6 percent.

In the West the Nuggets dipped after the Carmelo trade, but Utah’s decline resulted in an improvement overall by the Nuggets.  More importantly, the Memphis Grizzlies now have the eighth highest chance at the playoffs in the West.

Carmelo Anthony is finally a Knick.  Following endless rumors since before the season even started, the trade that everyone knew was coming finally came to fruition late Monday night.  Here is how everything shakes out:

Knicks get:  Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter, Renaldo Balkman
Nuggets get:  Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, Corey Brewer, 2014 1st round pick (NYK), $3 million (NYK)
Timberwolves get:  Anthony Randolph, Eddy Curry, $3 million (NYK)

The Knicks traded basically half their roster to get Anthony, but did finally get their man in the end along with Billups to replace Felton as the starting point guard.  In our projections with Anthony and Billups going forward, they won nearly two more games over their remaining 28 (+6.8 percent per game) and improved their playoff chances by 6.2 percent.

The big issue for New York going forward will be size.  Gallinari, Mozgov, Curry, and Randolph were the four tallest players on the team.  Now Ronny Turiaf and Shelden Williams are left to man the middle alongside Amare Stoudemire.

Denver did well to gain some nice players and assets despite only one viable destination for Anthony.  Still, the team is left in a tenuous position for this season, and that is precluding any further trades before Thursday’s deadline.  The Nuggets will suit up only nine players Tuesday against Memphis, the biggest direct threat to their playoff spot in the West.

With the trade, the Nuggets’ chances at the playoffs drop -10.8 percentage points to 72 percent, and their per game win percentage drops -5.6 percent.  Denver is projected to win 1.4 fewer wins.  This trade is a boon for Memphis, Phoenix, and Utah who are all vying for the final two playoff positions.

The biggest thing for the Nuggets is that the team can finally move forward from the Carmelo-era as well as earning big savings cash-wise.  The team went from more than $13 million over the luxury tax threshold to below the salary cap saving upwards of $25 million plus.  They also go significantly younger as Mozgov is just 24, Gallinari 22, and Chandler 23.  Felton is nearly eight years younger than Billups, and also comes at half the salary.

The Grizzlies were dealt a huge blow Wednesday when it was revealed that forward Rudy Gay would miss at least a month due to a shoulder injury. Gay was in the middle of a career year averaging career bests in every major category except points.

Gay’s more efficient game this season had led Memphis to a 31-26 record heading into the All-Star break, tied with the Jazz for 8th in the West, and just a game behind the Nuggets. The Grizzlies have won 8 of their last 10 games, and a 13-5 record over the last month. The injury to Gay probably knocks Memphis out of serious playoff contention.

Even with the improved overall play, AccuScore had projected the Grizzlies to only average 11.4 wins over the rest of the season even with Gay in the lineup. This is due to a schedule jampacked with playoff teams coming out of the break. Here is the projected impact of this injury:

Memphis is likely to play between 12-14 games minimum without its star forward. Over that stretch, the Grizzlies are forecasted to lose 0.8 more games, and are 9.2 percent less likely to make the playoffs. Immediately coming out of the All-Star break they will face Denver, San Antonio (twice), New Orleans, Dallas, Oklahoma City, New York (twice), and Miami in less than a 20 day span.

Expect Memphis to compensate by playing Sam Young and Tony Allen together in the starting lineup. Another option would be to play Tony Allen at the small forward spot, and reinstate O.J. Mayo, who is coming off a 10-game suspension, back to the starting five. Although Allen and Young have played some of their best basketball in recent games, any combination of those three wing players are unlikely to be able to make up for the loss of Gay.

Dallas swingman Caron Butler underwent surgery to repair a torn tendon in his right knee and will miss the rest of the season. The Mavs appear to have the depth to cover the loss with more minutes for J.J. Barea, Shawn Marion, DeShawn Stevenson, and perhaps rookie Dominique Jones.

The simulations show that without Butler, Dallas is just 0.4 wins worse for the season. They also show the playoff odds and seeding unaffected for the Mavs. The biggest difference is in the odds for the Southwest division. Dallas loses nearly 12 percentage points which is due to the fact that the Spurs are now more likely to win in head-to-head match-ups and already hold a 4 game lead.

The Magic went all-in over the weekend making two separate trades to help keep up in the Eastern conference.  It was becoming increasingly clear that Orlando was falling behind Boston and Miami in the pecking order so GM Otis Smith pulled the trigger on two trades acquiring Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson and Earl Clark for Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, Mickael Pietrus, Marcin Gortat, and a first-round pick.

On the floor the trades appear to be a net minus for Orlando. Before the trades the Magic was projected for 55 wins with a 25 percent chance at beating the Heat for the division title. After the moves Orlando is now nearly three projected wins worse with just under a 15 percent chance at the division.

Arenas is shooting just 39 percent from the field this season, and is just a 42 percent career shooter. He is also a high turnover rate player. Turkoglu once fit in well with this team, but he appears to be a shell of his former self. The swap from Carter to Richardson appears to be negligible and all three players are poor defenders putting more pressure on Dwight Howard. The moves also leave a void behind Howard in the middle. Marcin Gortat was considered one of the best back-ups in the league. That job will now be manned by Brandon Bass (who will likely start at PF) and Ryan Anderson. It has actually already been reported the team is looking to move Chris Duhon and/or Quentin Richardson to find another back-up big man.

While the moves may not have helped Orlando, it is at least understandable why the team made them. The Magic was clearly third in the pecking order, and it was looking increasingly unlikely it could not win a title as previously constituted.  Something had to be done to shake up the roster, and this was about as bold a makeover as one could imagine. While the commitment to winning might be admirable, these moves don’t look like enough to keep Orlando in the title discussion.

For Phoenix, as I said, Carter is roughly the same as Richardson. Gortat should provide a big boost in the middle for a team that has zero size outside of Robin Lopez. Pietrus probably gets lost among the wing players already in Phoenix. The big upside for the Suns is giving away Turkoglu’s contract.  On the court, simulations project them to be about one win worse and still 9th in the West. While Phoenix is also eight percent less likely to make the playoffs, the move could actually help more than expected if Gortat can help solve some of the defensive and rebounding issues that have plagued this squad for years.

This move for Washington was all about saving money as Lewis’ contract effectively ends in 2012 (the last year is non-guaranteed) and moving on from Arenas. The trade actually looks to help the Wizards on the floor as well since Lewis is a moderately useful frontcourt player and removes Arenas’ shooting percentages from the equation.  The simulations also assume John Wall should return to health soon and play most of the remaining games.

Rockets center Yao Ming had been working towards a comeback, but now it’s been revealed that he has yet another stress fracture in his ankle.  Not only is his outlook for this season compromised but possibly his career.  Sadly for Houston, he was projected to play so little this season his loss barely registers in simulations.

With or without Yao, Houston looks like it will be on the outside looking in once again come playoff time. The Rockets are projected to finish 11th in the competitive West barring any moves from their always aggressive GM Daryl Morey. Hopefully this isn’t the last we’ve seen of Yao on an NBA basketball court.

Joakim Noah has been playing for several weeks now with an injured thumb. Both he and the Bulls however have deemed it necessary now to undergo surgery in order to be ready for the playoffs.  The center is expected to miss up to 8-10 weeks of action which would put him out until March.

Noah has been a huge factor in the Bulls’ improvement this season averaging 14 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks a night. He ranks 5th in the NBA in boards, and is one of the best defenders in the league.  His loss is a big one for Chicago.  The Bulls are projected to be about four games worse without Noah in the lineup for 10 weeks, but luckily the Central division and the teams behind them are relatively week. They are still projected to maintain their 4th position in the East.

Chicago only had Carlos Boozer and Noah together for nine games winning the last seven in a row. Luckily the upcoming schedule lightens up now for the Bulls, and the timeline for recovery should allow for at least a month of games to re-assimilate Noah in preparation for the playoffs.

Atlanta swingman Joe Johnson will undergo surgery on his elbow and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks of action.  Johnson leads the Hawks in scoring and assists at 17.1 and 5.2 per game.  Below are AccuScore’s season projections if Johnson is out until mid-January.

Without Johnson out, Jamal Crawford or Mo Evans will move to the starting lineup and further weaken the bench.  Atlanta is projected to lose 1.6 wins on average in the standings over the next 6 weeks.  This might not even matter in the long run however as the Hawks were projected as the 6th seed in the East before the injury, and are still projected to finish in the same spot in the standings.

EASTERN CONFERENCE PREVIEW
Predictably the Heat, Magic and Celtics sit atop the projected NBA standings for this coming season.

The Heat have already been dinged by some injuries: Mike Miller’s finger that will keep him out for awhile and concern over Dwyane Wade’s hamstring. Health will be the key for Miami. If it can keep Wade in the lineup along with LeBron James and Chris Bosh AccuScore sees them easily winning 60+ games and finishing with the best record in the NBA.  The Heat is the only projected lock for the playoffs before the season begins.

Orlando is second ahead of the Celtics in the East. While that does not necessarily mean the Magic are better, it does mean it is built perfectly for the regular season as demonstrated by the past two seasons. Orlando does have a 32 percent chance of stealing the division crown from Miami while Boston is the massive favorite in the Atlantic.

The new look Bulls are about 3-to-1 favorites to win the Central over the upstart Bucks. Chicago is projected to break the 50 win barrier with the addition of Carlos Boozer and some of his Jazz teammates as well as an improved Derrick Rose. Milwaukee could be a threat for homecourt if it can continue the progress it showed late last season before the injury to Andrew Bogut. Atlanta is projected for a dip, but still solidly a playoff team.

After the top six, the standings get murky. Washington is projected 7th behind uber-rookie John Wall, but nothing in the past year has gone smoothly for the franchise. The Wizards will need to transition the team to Wall while hoping Gilbert Arenas is behaves and plays well off the ball. They also need Andray Blatche to prove that last season’s end of year performance was not a mirage. If all that happens the playoffs are certainly within reach.

While Washington might have the highest potential because of Wall, it wouldn’t be wrong to lump them in with Charlotte, Indiana, Philadelphia, New York, and New Jersey who are all likely fighting for the final two playoff spots in the East. Cleveland, Toronto, and Detroit are all projected for winning percentages under 35, and will more than likely be playing solely for draft position.

WESTERN CONFERENCE PREVIEW
The Lakers remain on top of the heap out West, and this upcoming season will be about if any true challengers will emerge.

L.A. remains the class of the West with a comfortable margin of +5.5 games ahead of its nearest competition in the projected standings. The Lakers are over 96 percent likely to make the playoffs at this point, and can probably afford to round into shape slowly as the season progresses.

Currently, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and San Antonio look like the best bets to compete with the Lakers in the West.  All three are projected for at least 48 wins with the Mavs just over the 50 win plateau.  Each team has questions to answer however. Dallas must prove that its window is not closed, and find some youth to help move the team forward. Oklahoma City must prove that, led by Kevin Durant, it is truly ready to take that step from upstart to contender. Finding more of a presence inside will be key for the Thunder whether it be from rookie Cole Aldrich, or veterans Nenad Krstic and Serge Ibaka.  The Spurs are back again for another go this time with Tiago Splitter to pair with Tim Duncan. San Antonio will need to keep Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili healthy this season or their hopes will likely be dashed.

Five teams – Houston, Denver, Phoenix, Portland, and Utah – are all projected to win between 44 and 46 wins.  That likely means at least one of them will be on the outside looking in come playoff time. Denver’s outlook of course is contingent on keeping Carmelo Anthony on the team for the full season. If he is traded or the team implodes from within someone from the next tier in the standings could make a leap up. One intriguing team to watch could be the Clippers. History tells us that the other L.A. can’t compete and it is projected for just a 20 percent chance at the postseason. That could change if Blake Griffin lives up to his All-Star potential right away, and he brings Baron Davis right along with him and revitalizes the roster.

The only truly awful team in the West looks to be Minnesota. The Timberwolves have an odd unbalanced roster, and will need a minor miracle to get out of the basement. They are forecasted to win just 18 games, fewest in the NBA.

Think the new super team in Miami can dominate the NBA like no other team has before?  There’s always a chance. Below are some statistical nuggets about the Heat now that they have teamed up LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. This data is as of 10/20. The season is simulated 10,000 and assumes normal health for the full roster.

Chance of winning 70+: 19.3%
Chance of winning 72+: 11.3%
Best single season record:  78-4 (1 in 10,000)
Worst single season record:  41-41 (1in 10,000)
Longest winning streak:  58 games

By Jonathan Lee and Stephen Oh
AccuScore.com

The word floating around is that LeBron James, on his televised “Decision” Thursday night, will choose to sign with Miami Heat and form a super team with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.  This type of superstar trio is unprecedented, and would obviously make the future of the NBA very intriguing.

With the Heat having just four players under contract before LeBron (Wade, Bosh, Chalmers, Beasley) we had to make assumptions based on average players that could be signed at the minimum to fill out the rest of the roster. The trio signing with an Eastern Conference team allows it rack the victories more easily as the last team with the best record, Cleveland, becomes significantly worse and creates more available “easy” wins.

Full NBA seasons were projected 10,000 times with all the current free agents moves and LeBron in Miami. Here are some interesting numbers for the Heat:

1. The average record is 67-15, best in the NBA
2. Best record in any simulation was 79-3 (1 in 10,000)
3. Worst record in any simulation was 40-42
4. Chance of winning 73+ games is 19.3% (NBA win record)
5. Chance of winning 72+ games is 24.6% (ties Bulls win record)
6. Chance of winning 60+ games is 79.4%

In our simulations when a game is a complete blowout the starters end up playing fewer minutes which limits the statistical output of this trio.  In simulations AccuScore uses player performance stats based on their career numbers so the statistical line for the three stars are comparable to previous years with a slight reduction. All three could post more impressive lines if they went for numbers, but this is unlikely.

1. Lebron James:  27.8 Points, 7.5 Rebounds, 7.7 Assists
2. Dwyane Wade:  27.0 Points, 4.8 Rebounds, 7.0 Assists
3. Chris Bosh:   22.3 Points, 9.6 Rebounds, 1.8 Assists

ACCUSCORE’S 2010 NBA DRAFT PREVIEW

AccuScore could spend days running billions of simulations about the impact of different rookies on all the different teams to see which players each team should draft. However, we do not need to run these numbers to know that there are really only 5 to 10 rookies a year that actually make a significant statistical impact in their first year (i.e. double digit points and/or 4+ assists and/or 4+ rebounds). Rather than use up all of our super-computer resources for 2 or 3 meaningful findings, we decided to save some a ton of time and focus on a few key player evaluation questions that will actually make a significant impact on the teams that draft these players.

QUESTION 3: Comparing Derrick Favors and DeMarcus Cousins
The other prized big man at the top of this draft is DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins is not as athletic as Favors, and his commitment to both the game and staying in shape is questionable. His potential however, as a low post scorer, rebounder and defender are as high as anyone in the draft. His skill set if not found very often even in the NBA which makes him so tantalizing as a prospect despite his off-court issues. Offensively and on the boards we drew from players like Carlos Boozer and Al Jefferson to create our virtual Cousins. We also made him a better defensive player than Boozer and Jefferson. Remember, the goal of this analysis is to evaluate the impact of these top players if they fulfill their potential.

Cousins likely could not co-exist with Elton Brand, but if Cousins was as good as his stats would indicate and he gets the bulk of minutes at the PF spot he has a larger positive impact on the Sixers than Favors. You can see why a number of stats-focused analysis rates Cousins as the top prospect in the draft. His impact is slightly greater than Favors’ on the Sixers.

The one thing the Nets are happy with after last year is the play of Brook Lopez. He is a skilled low post scorer, and there may not be space down low for both Lopez and Cousins to operate. While the overall impact is virtually the same the slightest edge in impact goes to Favors whose presence on the offensive boards could be a nice pairing with Lopez.

The T-Wolves may also look to add one of these two big men. This would definitely come with a trade of Al Jefferson and/or Kevin Love. Adding either Favors or Cousins to the current roster would not make much of an impact since Jefferson and Love are still on the team. The impact for both players is nearly half the impact they have on the Nets with the slight edge going to Cousins.

The Kings have drafted some big men the past few years (Spencer Hawes, Jon Brockman, Jason Thompson), and traded for undersized power forward Carl Landry last year. If Favors or Cousins performed to his potential, they would be clear upgrades over these current Kings big men. Again, the impact is very similar but Cousins ability to score with his back to the basket and draw double teams seems to help the Kings win slightly more than they win with Favors.

ACCUSCORE’S 2010 NBA DRAFT PREVIEW

AccuScore could spend days running billions of simulations about the impact of different rookies on all the different teams to see which players each team should draft. However, we do not need to run these numbers to know that there are really only 5 to 10 rookies a year that actually make a significant statistical impact in their first year (i.e. double digit points and/or 4+ assists and/or 4+ rebounds). Rather than use up all of our super-computer resources for 2 or 3 meaningful findings, we decided to save some a ton of time and focus on a few key player evaluation questions that will actually make a significant impact on the teams that draft these players.

QUESTION 2: Should Philadelphia Take Derrick Favors or Evan Turner?
Derrick Favors stock was already high despite relatively modest numbers in his one year at Georgia Tech, but with measurables that match him closely with Dwight Howard Favors is now being viewed as a legitimate possibility as the number two overall draft pick. The Sixers just traded Samuel Dalembert to Sacramento for Spencer Hawes and Andres Nocioni. Some think that this indicates they will draft Derrick Favors over Evan Turner in order to replace much of what they lose with Dalembert.

The positive scouting reports for Favors make him seem like a combination of Dwight Howard and maybe Antonio McDyess (pre-injuries). For this “best possible scenario” forecast we took a combination of Howard and McDyess in their second seasons to create Derrick Favors. We used the same virtual Evan Turner that we used in our first scenario comparing him to John Wall.

Before the Dalembert trade Turner had a more positive impact on the Sixers than Favors. However, after the trade the situation has been reversed and now Favors is the recommended pick for the Sixers assuming both Turner and Favors live up to high expectations. The Sixers need an athletic PF/C who can rebound, block shots, and use his athleticism to score 12 to 15 points on 50%+ shooting.

ACCUSCORE’S 2010 NBA DRAFT PREVIEW

AccuScore could spend days running billions of simulations about the impact of different rookies on all the different teams to see which players each team should draft. However, we do not need to run these numbers to know that there are really only 5 to 10 rookies a year that actually make a significant statistical impact in their first year (i.e. double digit points and/or 4+ assists and/or 4+ rebounds). Rather than use up all of our super-computer resources for 2 or 3 meaningful findings, we decided to save some a ton of time and focus on a few key player evaluation questions that will actually make a significant impact on the teams that draft these players.

QUESTION 1: John Wall or Evan Turner?
This is not actually much of a debate. The Washington Wizards are going to draft John Wall, and AccuScore supports that as the correct decision. We wanted to evaluate the impact of these players assuming both pan out and perform up to their capabilities. General Managers, scouts, and other NBA statistical analysis services specialize in projecting how players will develop in the NBA. In doing so they are trying to determine which players will develop and perform and which players will fail to realize their potential. Our game-by-game simulation is NOT designed to project a player’s future level of play. It is designed to evaluate how a player would impact a team assuming he performs to a certain pre-determined level.

For this analysis we want to assume that John Wall and Evan Turner are terrific players from the moment they step onto an NBA court. We took data from Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo and other comparable point guards to create our virtual instant All-Star version of John Wall. We took Brandon Roy and other top shooting guards to create a virtual Evan Turner. We also wanted to make sure our virtual Turner rebounded and passed at a better rate than most shooting guards while also struggling from three-point range more than most NBA players at his position.

What is not displayed here is the impact that the players have on team defense and the shooting percentages of his teammates. John Wall is having the bigger impact defensively on the Wizards because he is capable of being an All-League defender with his combination of speed and length from the point guard position. As the lead guard his penetration will help create open perimeter shots while also helping young emerging power forward Andray Blatche get more easy baskets. Turner is a good passer as well, but a lot of assists in college does not necessarily translate to helping an NBA team get better looks and shoot a higher percentage. In college it is often more a reflection of a player dominating the ball.

In our simulations John Wall is lifting the Wizards into the playoffs in 35.6% of simulations and helping them win nearly 11 more games than the current roster would win in 2010-2011. Evan Turner is having a phenomenal year in simulations and would certainly get plenty of Rookie of the Year votes as well, but Wall improves Washington by +5.4% per game more than Turner, and in turn significantly increases the Wizards’ chances at the postseason.