In 10,000 simulations AccuScore generated the percent chance each team won the Super Bowl after the Wild Card round. Below is a review of AccuScore’s forecast as compared to the current betting lines. There is a somewhat surprising lack of difference between the two. The odds (+Yes / -No) have been translated into an Odds % which is the chance that the Vegas Odds-Makers give each team to win. The total Odds% is 111% because Vegas sportsbooks charge a vig to make a profit off betting. If you remove the vig then you get the Odds% (No Vig).

When comparing AccuScore to the Odds% (No Vig) you see the Difference (Diff). The Jets and Ravens had impressive wild card road wins, but with road games against the Patriots and Steelers respectively it is still a pretty long shot for them even though they may be two of the best four teams in the league.

The Seahawks beat the Saints, but they are still given less than a one percent chance of shocking the world with a Super Bowl win. The Bears are benefiting by getting Seattle at home which is why their chances of winning the Super Bowl are higher than the odds would indicate. The Bears may have the most value compared to the odds, but they too are still a long shot. Atlanta definitely got the short end of the stick having to face Green Bay (6 seed) rather than Seattle (4 seed).

By Stephen Oh
AccuScore.com

AFC
The Chiefs had quarterback Matt Cassel back and got a dominating rushing performance this past week to put them in a great position to take the AFC West.  The Chargers are heavy favorites in both of their remaining games, and have over a 55 percent chance of closing with two wins, but they do not control their own destiny.  With the Ravens and Jets both winning the chances of an AFC West team getting a Wild Card spot is unlikely.  San Diego and Oakland both won on Sunday, but their playoff chances still dropped considerably because of the Chiefs’ win.

By beating Pittsburgh on the road, the Jets got a huge win both in terms of building confidence and securing a playoff spot.  With a likely first round match-up against the inexperienced Chiefs, the Jets are probably better off in the sixth spot than the Ravens at five who will likely have to go to Indianapolis.   The Steelers may have lost to the Jets, but they locked up a playoff spot and are still likely to win the AFC North by having a better division record than the Ravens.

The Colts regained control over the AFC South and are the 63.6 percent favorite to win the division.  The Jaguars saw their chances drop over 20 percentage points by losing in Indianapolis.  There is only a 35 percent chance that the Jags win out, and even if they do they cannot pass the Colts who have the tiebreaker.

NFC
The Bears hammered the Vikings to win the NFC North, and the Packers saw their playoff chances plummet as a result.  If Aaron Rodgers is healthy the Packers are a 58 percent favorite to beat the Giants in Week 16 so they still have a chance if they can beat Chicago in Week 17.  The Saints and Giants may have both lost in Week 15, but they are still clear-cut favorites for the Wild Card spots.

The three team race for the NFC West is still alive.  Amazingly the 49ers control their own destiny and there is a 28 percent chance that they win out and take the division.  The Rams are actually winning less than 50 percent of Week 16 and Week 17 simulations, but they are still ultimately winning the division 43 percent of the time which is more than the 49ers and Seahawks.

AFC

The Jaguars big victory over Tennessee would have boosted their playoff chances considerably by itself;  when the Colts lost at home to the Cowboys it vaulted the Jaguars’ playoff chances up +30 percent.   Jacksonville is now the favorite to represent the AFC South with a 48 percent chance of winning the division.  The Colts are still not far behind at 39 percent, but a Week 14 win at Tennessee is a must.  Only one AFC South team will make the playoffs as the four teams are projected to combine for just a 1.6 percent chance of earning a Wild Card spot.

Kansas City got a close win against Denver which improved its playoff chances slightly alone, but the Chargers loss at home to the Raiders boosted the Chiefs’ chances over 18 percentage points.  The Chargers’ chances plummeted over 31 percentage points.  The Raiders are now averaging 8 wins per season simulation which is solid improvement this season, but they are still forecasted third in the division with just an 18 percent chance of making the playoffs. 

Pittsburgh got a huge win over Baltimore and is now virtually a lock to make the playoffs at over a 99 percent chance.  The Steelers’ chances of winning the AFC North jumped from 46 to 79 percent.  Baltimore may have seen its division chances drop from 54 to 21 percent, but the overall playoff chances only dipped 5 percentage points thanks to losses by the Colts and Chargers.  Cincinnati has been eliminated from playoff contention with a 0 percent chance, but Cleveland is barely hanging on with an 0.3 percent chance of earning a Wild Card spot.

New England only improved their playoff chances by 2.2 percent and the Jets only dipped -0.1 percent, but the significance of the Patriots’ dominating win should not be underestimated.  The Patriots are now the heavy 84 percent favorite to win the division, and their chances of advancing the Super Bowl are up considerably now that they are in position for the top overall playoff seed.  They have beaten both the Ravens and the Jets at home while beating up the Steelers on the road.

NFC

Seattle got a win over Carolina, and with San Francisco losing the Seahawks are up +8 percentage points this week.  St. Louis however, is still the favorite to win the NFC West at 62.5 percent.   This division will likely come down to who wins the Rams versus Seahawks Week 17 game.  Even though the game is in Seattle the Rams are even with the Seahawks in current simulations.  San Francisco is down to just 3.7 percent and the Cardinals are officially eliminated after making the playoffs in none of the simulations.

The New Orleans offense is clicking and the Saints up +7.6 percentage points after a road win in Cincinnati.  The Falcons only saw a +2.1 percentage point increase, but that is because they are already so close to having a 100 percent chance.  Tampa Bay played well, but after the home loss to Atlanta their playoff chances are down over -13 percent to just a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Eagles won again and saw their playoff chances improve +5.7 percentage points.  The Giants also won and while their loss crushed the Redskins’ playoff chances, the Giants’ chances actually dropped this week.  This is because two of their remaining opponents, Green Bay and Minnesota, are projected better in simulations than they were last week.  The Giants need to become Cowboys fans because Dallas plays the Eagles twice.  Currently the Eagles are 67 and 83 percent favorites against the Cowboys which is why they have the best chance of winning the division at nearly 74 percent.

Green Bay still trails Chicago in the division, but Chicago’s difficult remaining schedule (vs. NE, @ Min, vs. NYJ, @ GB) could result in the Bears winning only one more game.  The Packers have an easier schedule with games against the Lions, and are at home versus their tougher opponents like the Bears and Giants.  The Packers are favored in three of their final four games which is why they are winning the NFC North in a majority (56 percent) of simulations. 

AFC

The Baltimore Ravens struggled to beat the Bills but still saw a solid +7.6 percent improvement in playoff probability. The Ravens benefited by losses by the Bengals and Chargers – two Wild Card competitors. The Steelers lead the entire NFL in playoff probability at nearly 89 percent, and despite their loss at home to Baltimore the Steelers still have the edge in the AFC North 57 to 43 percent. The Bengals only have a 2 percent chance of making the playoffs after another disheartening loss. The Browns have to be pleased with their solid play in recent weeks, but they still have no shot at the playoffs.

The big loser in the AFC was the Miami Dolphins. They not only got the very short end of the stick at home vs Pittsburgh, but with none of the teams ahead of them in playoff probability losing, it resulted in a nearly 20 percentage point drop. The Patriots and Jets are in a very tight battle for the division with the Jets getting the slightest advantage by virtue of beating New England back in Week 2. The Bills should have beaten Baltimore but the moral victory is small consolation and their 0 percent playoff probability does not help much either.

The Tennessee Titans not only got a quality win over the Eagles, they saw their playoff chances improve +12 points and they are quickly closing the gap on the Colts. The Colts were idle but lost 5.1 playoff percentage points partly due to the wins by other AFC playoff contenders and partly due to the injuries they have suffered. The Houston Texans are 4-2, but they have struggled the past few weeks and AccuScore is expecting the Texans to head straight for another 8-8 season once they have to go back on the road.

The Kansas City Chiefs impressively beat Jacksonville while the Chargers once again fumbled their way to a deficit that they could not quite come back from. The Chiefs are now solid 63 percent favorites in the AFC West. The Chargers playoff chances have dropped double digits for a second straight week and now they are a long shot to make the playoffs despite being #1 in the league in passing and Top 3 in both pas and rush defense. The Oakland Raiders demolished Denver but they cannot expect an aberrant performance like this again. The Raiders and Broncos both have under a 5 percent chance of making the playoffs.

NFC

The Dallas Cowboys’ playoff chances plummeted from 31 to virtually 2 percent. Ten percentage points was due to another loss (to the Giants) and the other 20 is due to the possible season ending injury to Tony Romo. The Giants are well-positioned to take the division with a dynamic offense and quality defense. The Giants have a 64 percent chance of winning the NFC East. The Eagles are still sitting in a good position for a Wild Card at a 56 percent chance of making the playoffs. Washington has played well enough to see their playoff chances improve to nearly 29 percent this week.

The Minnesota Vikings saw their playoff chances drop double digits after losing to Green Bay. Brett Favre could miss several games due to injury and even though he has not played well this year AccuScore simulations indicate that the Vikings are +8 percentage points better, on average, with Favre than with Tarvaris Jackson. Green Bay saw a huge +16 percentage point improvement after beating the Vikings and getting another horrible loss by the Bears. Chicago dropped nearly 10 percentage points after losing at home thanks to poor decisions by the Coaching staff and QB Jay Cutler.

Atlanta is second to the NY Giants in playoff probability in the NFC after beating the Bengals. The Falcons’ playoff chances improved more than expected because the Saints suffered a horrible home loss. The Saints dropped 12.5 points, but even with all their struggles have the third highest playoff percentage in the NFC. The Saints are benefiting from the mediocrity in the NFC. Tampa Bay is second in the division but AccuScore is not yet a believer in the Bucs. They improved +10 points but they still only have a 23 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Seattle Seahawks may run away with the NFC West title by merely going 8-8 or 9-7 which could give them a 2 to 3 game lead at the end of the season. The Seahawks improved +13 percentage points by beating a division rival at home. It also helped that the rest of the division all lost again. The Rams lost to Tampa Bay but only saw a modest –3.6 point drop because even with the loss they still played very well for most of the game defensively which bodes well for the rest of the season. The 49ers have no business having as high a playoff probability as they have (12.9 percent) being 1-6, but in this division and conference you are apparently never really out of playoff contention.

AFC
The Tennessee Titans were seven point underdogs against Dallas. By winning a game they were supposed to lose helped them lead the AFC in playoff probability improvement at +20.7 percent. The Titans were helped by the Texans who not only lost at home, but played so poorly they hurt their projected performance in Week 6 to 17 simulations. The gains Houston made last week were completely reversed in Week 5. The Colts and Jaguars both showed slight improvements after wins in which they were favored. Indianapolis is still the favorite to win its division at just over 50 percent.

The Baltimore Ravens are tied for the best record in the conference and have beaten the other 4-1 AFC team, the New York Jets. The Ravens solidly beat the Broncos at home, a game Baltimore was supposed to win. Baltimore was helped out by Cincinnati which has lost two games in a row in which it was the clear cut favorite. The Bengals’ -10.7 percentage point drop is virtually identical to the Ravens +10.5 percent. The Ravens and idle Steelers are in a virtual tie for the division.

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The New England Patriots were on a bye week, but still managed to drop -12.6 percentage points. This is due to a combination of factors including the win by the Jets and the trade of Randy Moss. The Patriots’ chances of winning the AFC East dropped around 8 percentage points after the Moss trade. The Miami Dolphins actually picked up +9.8 points by being idle this week. Like the Jets, the Dolphins benefited from the Moss trade and the losses by other wild card competitors like Cincinnati, San Diego, Houston, and Denver.

The San Diego Chargers have dominated in many key offensive and defensive statistics and have outscored their opponents by 34 points. Despite that large point differential they are just 2-3. AccuScore expects that even if San Diego’s special teams continues to be a weakness teams won’t be scoring 7-10 points against them a game. The Chargers also can’t possibly continue turning the ball over in the red zone at this high a rate. As undisciplined as the Chargers have played they are still the clear-cut favorite at 59 percent to take the division like they have been in previous seasons. The Chiefs are looking like a legitimate playoff contender, but despite their 3-1 record they only have a 46.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. Their chances actually improved slightly after a loss to the Colts because they played well in the loss which boosted their performance in future game simulations.

NFC
The Eagles, Giants, and Redskins all got impressive wins and collectively benefitted from another bad Cowboys loss. Dallas dropped -16.7 percentage points, but still has a decent 33 percent chance of ultimately winning the division. The Redskins should be commended for their three impressive wins over playoff teams but AccuScore expects them to ultimately fall back in the NFC East with just a 7.5 percent chance of winning the division.

Tampa Bay jumped over 28 percentage points in playoff probability after a shocking comeback in Cincinnati to move its record to 3-1. It goes without saying that a win for the Bucs in Week 6 against the Saints would do wonders for their division chances which are still only 8.6 percent, well behind Atlanta and New Orleans. The Saints are clearly struggling, and dropped -16.6 percentage points this week. Statistically, they have performed like an average offensive team and below average defensive team in 2010. Despite their current struggles, the Saints still have the second highest playoff probability in the NFC. Atlanta has the highest probability after starting 4-1, and most importantly winning at New Orleans.

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The Vikings lost to the Jets Monday night, but still improved 10.2 percentage points. That is what happens when rival Green Bay also loses the same week along with a number of key players to injury. Minnesota also got a +8 percentage point bump simply by trading for Randy Moss who is not only expected to score his fair share of touchdowns, but also improve the play of Percy Harvin. Minnesota is only 1-3, but is technically second in the NFC North. The Vikings’ performance against the Packers and Bears will ultimately determine their playoff success. The Packers were the big losers in the division dropping nearly 24 percent after a loss in which they were favored. The loss combined with the injuries severely undercut their chances in Week 6 and possibly Week 7. Chicago beat Carolina and improved +13.4 percentage points thanks to the win and Green Bay’s loss and murky near future.

The Rams were the big winner last week because their defense looked poised to go from being one of the worst in the league to average or better. That notion may be out the window after getting blown out by Detroit. St. Louis’ future offensive performance was also hurt by the injury to leading receiver Mark Clayton. The Rams dropped -20 percentage points this week. The Arizona Cardinals may finish the season in the bottom third of the league offensively and defensively based on yardage or points allowed and still win the division. They are the leader at 3-2, and have a 31.8 percent chance of taking the NFC West. San Francisco lost again, but actually managed to pick up a few percentage points thanks to the bad loss by St. Louis. Believe it or not, the 49ers appear to still be in contention for the division at 20.3 percent.

AFC

After a 2-0 start, the Kansas City Chiefs were only given a 17.6 percent chance of making the playoffs but after a 3^rd win they are up +32 percentage points. While the win itself helped, the main reason why their improvement was so marked was the quality of the play offensively and defensively. This ‘helps’ the Chiefs play better in future game simulations. The Chiefs also benefited from losses by the rest of the division – San Diego, Denver and Oakland. The slow-starting Chargers are still favored to ultimately take the division at 63.1 percent, but the Chiefs have to be given proper respect.

In the AFC North, the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers all won and all saw improvement in their playoff chances after Week 3 wins. The Steelers have been the most impressive team in the division and are favored to win the division at 58.3 percent. Baltimore lost to Cincinnati but they are projected to finish ahead of the Bengals in the division. Cincinnati has the tougher schedule as last year’s division winner and Carson Palmer has just not performed well at all. Cleveland puts up a solid effort each week but with no wins they are already eliminated from playoff contention in simulations.

The New York Jets defense was not very good without Darrelle Revis in Week 3, but they still had a huge win as the offense lifted the team. The Jets are now leading the AFC East. The Patriots beat Buffalo, but their defense has to be a major concern after allowing 30 points to Buffalo. The Dolphins took the biggest hit dropping nearly 19 percentage points. They had the double whammy of losing at home and losing to a division opponent.

The AFC South has quickly reverted back to the typical scenario that one has come to expect. Indianapolis looks like the class of the division despite a lack of a running game and running defense. Tennessee and Houston are talented enough to win any game they play, but ultimately they still lay too many eggs every few weeks to take control of the division. The Texans dropped over 30 percentage points for 3 reasons: 1) they lost, 2) the Titans and Colts both won, and 3) they played poorly offensively and defensively. Poor performance often hurts more than the actual loss because it reduces winning percentages in all future games.

NFC

Michael Vick was AccuScore’s pick to start for the Eagles before Kevin Kolb was benched and Vick has more than lived up to our high expectations. He obviously has good chemistry with his big play WRs and he has not lost a step scrambling with the ball. With no real reason to doubt that Vick can maintain his high level of play the Eagles are up +27 percent this week and are the projected NFC East leader with a 50.1 percent chance of taking the division. The Cowboys helped their cause by beating Houston, but they are still 1-2 and as big as the win over the Texans was psychologically, a win over a non-conference opponent just does not help as much as losses within the division or conference can hurt. The Giants keep making a ridiculous number of mental and physical errors. Their playoff chances have dropped nearly 24 percent. Washington was taken out quite easily by St. Louis and their chances are now under 5 percent.

The Seahawks’ upset victory over San Diego helped them improve around 12 percentage points, but the rest of the +27 point improvement comes from the San Francisco disastrous start and their willingness to rely on their more dynamic play-makers like Justin Forsett and Leon Washington over aging veterans like Julius Jones. The San Francisco 49ers plummeted over 30 percentage points. An 0-3 start combined with a surprisingly poor defensive effort in Week 3 all lead to a worst case scenario for San Francisco. Arizona technically won in Week 3 but without Kurt Warner this team is a long shot at making the playoffs even though they are in a very weak division.

No single goat will likely have a bigger impact on a divisional race than Garrett Hartley. His missed OT Field Goal delivered a seismic shift in the NFC South with the Saints going from an 85 percent favorite to win the division do a 56 percent favorite. The Falcons are now in a great position to obviously make the playoffs at nearly 74 percent which is 3^rd highest in the NFC. The Saints still have an exceedingly high 86 percent chance to make the playoffs because their schedule has plenty of easy games on it and there is a lack of competition in the NFC for Wild Card spots due to the weakness of the NFC West.

The Vikings won in week 3 but they still saw their playoff chances drop nearly 18 percent because beating Detroit at home was expected. Chicago beating Green Bay was not expected and with the Bears’ emergence and +17.6 percentage point improvement their rise is the Vikings’ loss. Just as important as the Bears’ emergence is the continued lackluster play of the Vikings passing game. With every passing week the simulations rely more on 2010 Season data and less on 2009 data. Green Bay lost at Chicago but except for penalties and their late fumble, they still looked like the team to beat with a dynamic offense and defense.

AFC

The biggest shake-up in the AFC came from the AFC South. Houston not only impressed everyone by beating the Colts, but showed their running game and defense are rapidly catching up with their passing game in terms of league ranking. They jumped 31 percentage points. The Titans were also impressive but their win over Oakland does not have the same impact as beating the projected division leader. The Colts are still expected to ultimately win this division with a 42 percent chance, but the Colts still were amongst the biggest drops (-17.5 percent) this week. The Jaguars won, but only saw a slight +3.7 percentage point increase.

The loud Jets suffered a bad loss, not only because it was to a playoff competitor at home, but they also showed no improvement offensively. If anything, they declined without Thomas Jones. A -35 percentage point drop may seem impossibly large, but with division rivals, Patriots and Dolphins winning, and Wildcard competitors, Texans, Titans, Ravens, and Steelers, all winning it all took its toll on the Jets. The Dolphins jumped nearly 25 percentage points thanks to their win and the Jets’ loss. The Patriots also had a nice jump up +16 percentage points thanks to their impressive offensive display.

The Baltimore Ravens got a big win that improved their playoff chances +6.7 percentage points. They did not improve as much as you might expect because Pittsburgh also won a close game and improved +5.8 points. With both the Ravens and Steelers winning, the Bengals saw their chances plummet -38 points. Like the Jets, the Bengals not only suffered due to a loss, but also due to the wins by division rivals and the emergence of the AFC South Wildcard competitors. Cincinnati also has one of the toughest schedules in the league.

The Chargers have started slowly yet again, but AccuScore still strongly favors them to ultimately win. They saw their playoff chances drop -7.7 points, but they are still the 77 percent favorite to win the division. Kansas City improved +6.7 points, and while their explosive young players Jamaal Charles, Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas were able to deliver big plays, the offense was overall very weak and could not score a point in the second half. The Raiders stumbled out of the gate and saw their chances already dip nearly -14 points as there are too many strong Wildcard competitors in the AFC. Denver dropped -4.2 points for the same reasons.

NFC

The Seattle Seahawks got a huge win over San Francisco and saw their playoff chances jump over 25 percentage points. Their defense was one of the worst last year and at least for a week they look much improved. The Cardinals also got a win over St. Louis and while the offense may average 7 to 10 points less without Kurt Warner, their underrated defense can still keep them in competition for the division. The main reason why Seattle and Arizona saw big jumps in playoff probability was the weak performance of San Francisco. Their offense was a total flop and with trouble brewing early in SF their playoff chances were cut in half.

The Dallas Cowboys loss in Washington cost the Cowboys dearly with a -17.6 percentage point drop. While road losses usually are not that costly, when they happen within the division they always take their toll. Surprisingly, the Redskins did not see an improvement after their win. They won the game, but were not particularly impressive offensively and their ability to put up points this year even with Donovan McNabb is questionable. The big winner in the division was the NY Giants who got the win over Carolina and benefited from the Eagles and Cowboys’ losses.

The New Orleans Saints offense may not have exploded in Week 1 but by beating the Vikings and having primary division rival, Atlanta, losing to Pittsburgh, the Saints saw their playoff chances improve +5.5 points. The Falcons offense was ineffective vs the Steelers and while things will improve when they face lesser defenses, they still do not look significantly improved vs last year. Atlanta’s loss cost them -9 percentage points. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers improved +6.5 points with their win over Cleveland and, more importantly, the struggles of Carolina. Carolina hoped their turnover problems left with Jake Delhomme but with Matt Moore looking awful in Week 1 and only rookie Jimmy Clausen waiting in the wings, turnovers by the QB could do this team in again.

Green Bay and Minnesota will compete for the NFC North all season long and head-to-head match-ups will likely determine the outcome. The Packers are currently 55 percent favorites at home vs Minnesota in Week 7 but Minnesota is 66 percent favorites at home vs Green Bay in Week 11 as Sidney Rice should be back by then. With the slight overall edge going to Minnesota they are still the 50 percent favorite to win the division vs 43 percent for Green Bay. Chicago and Detroit are not expected to make a serious playoff run with just a 6.8 percent combined chance of winning the division.

AFC

In a 16-game season win-loss record is not necessarily the best indicator of who the best teams are. Strength of schedule is a very close second to talent in determining how a team will do in any given season. For example, Baltimore is AccuScore's solid favorite to win the AFC North while Cincinnati is 3rd in the division, but in their head-to-head match-ups the Bengals actually win slightly over 50% of the simulations of the two games. The teams may be equal on the simulated playing field, but Cincinnati has a tougher schedule thanks to winning the division last year. Unlike Baltimore, Cincinnati has to face the Colts (in Indianapolis) and San Diego, the two leading teams in our AFC Season forecast.

The San Diego Chargers are not necessarily the best team in the AFC but the lack of competition in the division helps them cruise to an 11 win season and an 82.6 percent chance of winning the division. Ryan Matthews looks more than capable of replacing LaDainian Tomlinson. Even without Vincent Jackson the offense should still be dynamic enough to take the AFC West. AccuScore gives a slight second place edge in the AFC West to Oakland, who no longer have to worry about JaMarcus Russell single-handedly losing games this year. Like the Raiders, the Chiefs are pegged to be improved this season after some solid upgrades in the off-season. The Broncos are picked last in the division, but they are averaging less than 1 fewer win than 2nd placed Oakland.

The Indianapolis Colts are picked to once again win the AFC South. The Titans, Texans and Jaguars are all finishing with just under .500 records on average. The Colts have the worst running game in the division, but they showed last year that this is not a big deal when you can pass like the Colts can. The Colts are 77% favorites to win the division, which is nearly as high as the Chargers' chances in the AFC West.

Besides having an easier schedule than Cincinnati, the Ravens did a great job of addressing some pressing needs in the off-season. Baltimore is averaging 10 wins per simulation. If Joe Flacco can complete 65%+ of his passes (projected for 61% in simulations) then they could be an 11+ win team. While the Ravens are the pick in the division they only have a 14 percentage point edge (41 to 27) vs the 3rd placed Bengals. The Ravens have struggled in head-to-head match-ups vs the Steelers and Bengals so even though they are AccuScore's favorite they still will need to at least split with these teams to win the division.

The New York Jets may be favored by many to win the AFC East, but people need to remember that while they were 1 game away from the Super Bowl, there were also 1 half of the Colts resting their starters away from being 8-8 and a non-playoff team. Mark Sanchez is expected to be better this year, but even if he improves his completion percentage by +5%, his TD rate by 25% and cuts his INTs by 25% he is still a statistically below-average starting QB. The Jets have a very tough schedule and when your QB has a rating under 80 it is hard to win more than 9 games. The Patriots have a lot of question marks on defense and an aging offense but they are the favorite in the AFC East.

NFC

The New Orleans Saints cannot expect to force as many turnovers this year as they did last season, but they can expect to average around 30 points per game with their offensive talent. Even if the defense regressed and allowed 24 points (up from 21 last year) they would still be at an average margin of victory of +6 and headed for an 11 or 12 win season. Atlanta is excited about the healthy return of Michael Turner, but that is not enough to close the gap with the Saints. The Panthers could be a surprisingly good 8-8 team even without Julius Peppers because they do not have Jake Delhomme blowing games with turnovers anymore.

Many are picking the Packers to take the NFC North and they are averaging the 3rd most wins in the conference, but the Vikings are still AccuScore's pick at 57% vs the Packers 39%. Minnesota cannot expect Brett Favre to be as good as he was last year, statistically, but even if he regresses with 14 to 16 INTs as AccuScore expects, they are still in position to win the division. The Bears and Lions may have taken steps to improve their teams, but in simulations it's not enough to close the gap on the Packers and Vikings.

The AFC West has no team averaging more than 9 wins per simulation, but at 9 exactly, the San Francisco 49ers are AccuScore's pick at 70% to win the division. The Cardinals will take a major step backward with the turnover prone, inaccurate Derek Anderson at QB. The Seahawks have improved their talent, but AccuScore simulations do not 'think' there is any reason why Pete Carroll should provide any special boost to the team just because he had great success at USC. The Rams have also substantially improved but even with a 400% improvement they are still a 4 win team.

The NFC East is once again going to the Cowboys in a majority of simulations (52.7%). The Giants are picked second with a 25.7 percent chance of winning the division. The reason why Philadelphia is not faring well is Kevin Kolb, in a limited sample, has been interception prone. The Redskins are improved this year, but even with a +3 win improvement, they are still just a 7 win team.

If Brett Favre does in fact retire, it will have a huge effect on the Minnesota Vikings’ playoff chances.

The Vikings were AccuScore’s strong favorite in the NFC North but now are second to the Packers. (Maybe this was one last kind thing that Favre does for the Packers?).

FANTASY IMPACT
Favre’s retirement would also significantly impact the fantasy value of the rest of the Vikings. First, Tarvaris Jackson’s projected passing numbers lag significantly behind Favre’s.

Adrian Peterson may get the same number of carries but his yards per carry and touchdown production (fewer Red Zone and Goal Line opportunities) are down.

The Vikings receivers take the biggest hit by far with receptions, yards per reception, TDs and position ranking all down significantly without Favre.

Julius Peppers has had a good career and with the exception of 2007, he has consistently delivered 10 to 12 sacks a year.  However, he is not a dominant pass rusher that elevates the defense into elite status when you look at Carolina’s sub-par defensive stats in 2009 (allowed 4.4 ypc, just 31 team sacks, allowed 62% completion percentage).   Chester Taylor is a solid runner and receiver at RB and he was more productive per touch than the disappointing Matt Forte.  He should help the Bears, who averaged just 4.0 ypc as a team, improve offensively. 

The Bears should improve by adding these two players, but it is highly debatable whether the Bears spent their money wisely.  AccuScore re-simulated the 2009 Season.  The Bears only won 7 games, but in these re-simulations they averaged 8.2 wins with the addition of Peppers and Taylor.  Without Peppers and Taylor they averaged just 7.6 wins.  These additions improved their playoff chances by +7.8 percentage points.    

This is a significant improvement, but is it worth the money?

Taylor is 31 and while he may be more productive that Matt Forte we’re not sure he was worth a guaranteed $7 Million.  The addition of Peppers and a healthy return of Brian Urlacher could make an average Bears defense a Top 10 unit in 2010, but at a guaranteed $42 Million, was it really worth it?  Washington acquired a dominant defensive player in Albert Haynesworth last year and did not have a good season.  There are some talented pass rushers in the 2010 draft.  I’m not a GM, but it seems like the Bears could have figured out a way to acquire a first round pick that would have secured a highly rated pass rusher for a fraction of the $42 million guaranteed.

The Ravens had a weakness in 2009 and that was a lack of a true #1 WR.  They got Anquan Boldin for a 3rd and 4th round pick and a fair $28 Million over 4 years.  The Ravens saw their playoff chances improve by nearly as much as the Bears did but the Bears spent 4 times as much money on Taylor and Peppers.  The Bears had a disappointing 2009 because they lacked a true #1 WR and Jay Cutler threw way to many horrifically timed interceptions.  Unlike Baltimore, who tackled their Achilles’ Heel head-on the addition of Taylor and Peppers did not directly address Chicago’s weaknesses. 

Perhaps Bears management assumed that Cutler will ‘automatically’ throw fewer interceptions in 2010 and WR Devin Aromashodu is capable of being a #1 WR.  So they looked to improve their running game and pass rush.  These are fair assumptions, but not ones that I would bet the farm on.

AccuScore simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and this season the team that won over 50 percent of simulations won 71 percent of the time (182-74 regular season, 6-4 in playoffs) and for the second straight season AccuScore is ranked No. 1 among ESPN experts in picking games. We have gone on to simulate the NFL playoffs 10,000 times and the tables below show the percent chance each team has of winning each round (teams with first round bye have 100 percent chance of winning round 1), including the Super Bowl.

For analysis of spreads and totals check out AccuScore's Winner's Edge which has gone an impressive 14-5, 73.7 percent in the playoffs.

COLTS FAVORED

The Colts are the simulation favorite winning 54 percent of the time. Both QBs are posting impressive simulation stat lines, but Peyton Manning has the slight edge with an overall passer rating of 99 vs. 94 for Brees. Brees is completing a higher percentage of his passes (69 vs 66 percent), but Manning is projected for more yards (292 vs 250) and has a 63 percent chance of passing for 2+ TDs vs 49 percent for Brees.

WHICH SAINTS PASS DEFENSE WILL SHOW UP?

The key for the Saints to upset the Colts is their pass defense playing like they did in the first 12 weeks of the regular season and not like they have recently. AccuScore uses a proprietary power rating formula that ranks the best team at 100 percent and the worst at 0 percent. After Week 12 when the Saints destroyed the Patriots the team had a pass defensive power rating of 90 percent. However, since Week 13 on the Saints pass defense is in the bottom third in the league at 31 percent. If the Saints pass defense is like the Week 1-12 unit and intercept Manning at least once then the Saints actually have a 57 percent chance of winning.

COLTS RUN DEFENSE IS MUCH BETTER THAN THE STATS INDICATE

The Colts pass rush is one of the best units in the league and even if they do not sack Drew Brees a lot, they can definitely pressure harass him like the Vikings did. The defensive key for the Colts is for the run defense to continue playing well. Overall the Colts run defensive power rating is just 56 percent - slightly above average. However, if you disregard their Week 16 and 17 data when they rested starters, the Colts run defense power rating is a high 89 percent. If Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combine for less than 100 rushing yards, the Saints are heavy 22 percent underdogs because without an effective running game even Drew Brees will struggle when he is facing 3rd and long too many times.

COLTS ARE FAVORED IN A SHOOTOUT THANKS TO TURNOVER MARGIN

If this game ends up as a shootout with both QBs playing great (300+ yards, 2+ TDs) the Colts are favored to come out on top with a 57 percent chance of winning. The Colts have the edge because they are committing fewer turnovers. There is a 52 percent chance the Saints commit 2 or more turnovers vs 41 percent for the Colts. If the Colts do commit 2 or more turnovers the Saints have the 61 percent edge, but if they commit under 2 turnovers the Colts are the 54 percent favorite.

AccuScore simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and this season the team that won over 50 percent of simulations has gone on to win 71 percent of the time (182-74) and for the second straight season AccuScore is ranked No. 1 among ESPN experts in picking games. We have gone on to simulate the NFL playoffs 10,000 times and the tables below show the percent chance each team has of winning each round (teams with first round bye have 100 percent chance of winning round 1), including the Super Bowl.

For analysis of point spreads, totals and prop bets consider becoming a Winner's Edge subscriber (details here). AccuScore went a perfect 8-0 in the opening round of the playoffs.

AFC

The Colts may have home-field advantage, but the Chargers have the best chance of coming out of the AFC at 17 percent because the Chargers have a nearly 70 percent chance of beating the Jets next week while the Colts have ‘just’ a 57 percent chance of beating Baltimore. Both the Ravens and Jets were extremely impressive in their opening-round upset victories and while they are simulation underdogs this week, they are both expected to keep their games competitive and not lose by more than a touchdown, if not win the game outright.

The keys to victory in both games are very similar. The Chargers need to be able to pass the ball despite Darrelle Revis potentially taking out No. 1 WR Vincent Jackson and the Chargers run defense, which has been below average most of the season, needs to keep the Jets RBs from having 150+ rushing yards.

The Colts passing game needs to be effective despite the long lay-off and they need to limit turnovers, something Tom Brady struggled with vs this Ravens defense. The Colts sub-par run defense also needs to make sure that Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain to not bust out for another 200+ rushing yard performance.

NFC

The Saints have the best chance of winning the NFC Championship because they have a 71 percent chance of beating Arizona this week. Arizona was spectacular offensively vs. the Packers, but its defense was not, to say the least. The game is in New Orleans and it is unlikely that the Cardinals defense can hold the Saints to under 33 points. The Saints defense ranked 3^rd in the league in interceptions and this is a key advantage for this game. If Kurt Warner does not throw any interceptions and overall the Cardinals are +2 in turnovers, then they can upset New Orleans.

The Cowboys are arguably playing the best football in the league. With Felix Jones playing so well the Vikings actually do not have the advantage in the running game despite having Adrian Peterson. The running game is even and both defenses are dynamic. The key to this game comes down to Brett Favre vs. Tony Romo. The one who can deliver down-field with big plays in the face of extreme pressure (DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer for Favre; Jared Allen for Romo) without turning the ball over will likely lead the team to victory.

SUPER BOWL "FAVORITE"

While the Saints have the highest percentage of winning the Super Bowl, these numbers are highly speculative. The performance stats that come out of this weekend’s games will significantly dictate how well each team is expected to play in the Championship Games and subsequently the Super Bowl. For example, if Dallas were to play extremely well and soundly beat Minnesota while the Saints were to barely beat Arizona, then the Saints chances of winning the NFC and subsequently the Super Bowl would be significantly different from the projection above because of how well Dallas played at New Orleans and how they have played during the playoffs. Alternatively, if the Vikings were to easily handle Dallas then they may be the clear-cut favorite vs all other teams as the stats would indicate that the team was set to dominate as they did for the first 3 months of the regular season.

Given the number of upsets that occurred in the first weekend of the playoffs (Dallas was the only betting favorite to win) this may be one of those years where you never know what you will end up seeing.

AccuScore simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and this season the team that won over 50 percent of simulations has gone on to win 71 percent of the time (182-74) and for the second straight season AccuScore is ranked No. 1 among ESPN experts in picking games. We have gone on to simulate the NFL playoffs 10,000 times and the tables below show the percent chance each team has of winning each round (teams with first round bye have 100 percent chance of winning round 1), including the Super Bowl.

These simulations obviously cannot include the data that is generated throughout the playoffs. The NY Jets may only have a 2.5 percent chance of winning and an average of a 40 percent chance of beating an NFC opponent in the Super Bowl, but chances are if the Jets were to advance to the playoffs, the data that would be generated throughout a playoff run would result in the Jets having a better than 40 percent chance if they were to actually advance to the Super Bowl.

AFC

In the AFC the first-round playoff games are all very close with the injured Patriots having a 53.7 percent chance of beating the Ravens, and the Bengals having a 52.4 percent chance of beating the Jets. The Colts are solid 63 percent favorites in their Round 2 match-up vs the Ravens (if they upset New England), Bengals or Jets. The Chargers have a tougher second-round match-up with their most likely opponent being the Patriots. That said, the Chargers would be substantial 60+ percent favorites in their second round match-up as well.

The Colts and Chargers’ chances of making the AFC Championship Game is nearly three times as high as the rest of the field because they have the first-round bye and are simulation favorites vs all their Round 2 opponents. The Colts hold a slight 34.8 to 32.9 percent chance over the Chargers in winning the AFC. This edge is the result of the Colts home-field advantage should they meet.

In past years one conference was often the clearly superior conference resulting in the NFC dominating the mid 1980s into the 1990s and the AFC dominating most of the last decade. This year there are a number of teams in both conferences that are legitimate contenders who have all taken turns at the top of various Power Rankings or were pre-season Super Bowl picks. With the exception of the Jets, who are beating the NFC opponent around 40 percent of the time, the rest of the AFC is winning between 47 and 51 percent of Super Bowl simulations.

NFC

In the NFC, the Cowboys are solid 66 percent favorites vs. the Eagles. While many would say it is hard for a team to beat another quality team three times in a season, last year the Steelers beat the Ravens three times, and you cannot discount how much the Cowboys dominated the Eagles in Week 17 despite the Eagles playing for a No. 2 Seed, first-round bye and home-field advantage in the second round. The Cardinals did not put forth a maximum effort in getting throttled by the Packers in Week 17, and the playoff rematch should be much closer, but the Packers are still slight 52 percent road favorites. The Cardinals are slight underdogs because Anquan Boldin is questionable, and if he does play will likely be slowed by injury. They also have to deal with Aaron Rodgers who has rarely thrown interceptions this season while the Packers defense has led the league in forcing turnovers. If the Cardinals passing game is not 100 percent and the Packers continue to play as they have the second half of the season Green Bay should win for the second straight week.

The Saints and Vikings dominated the first 12 weeks of the season and if this Super Bowl forecast had been done then, their chances of winning round 2 would be well over 60 percent. However, the significant improvement from the rest of the NFC playoff field combined with some of the late season struggles, especially by the Saints, results in a far closer second round forecast. Both the Saints and Vikings would still be clear 10+ percentage point favorites in second round.

SUPER BOWL "FAVORITE"

Overall, the Saints and Vikings, like the Colts and Chargers have the best chances of meeting in their conference championship games because they have that first round bye. The Colts currently have the best overall chance of winning the Super Bowl. This forecast is statistics based and does not penalize the Colts for their losses in Week 16 and 17 because the players that performed in most of those games are not the ones playing in simulations. The forecast also does not assume that the time off will negatively impact their team chemistry.

The Colts are not necessarily the best team in AccuScore’s simulations. They have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl because of their higher Round 2 probability. They are even money vs. the Saints, Vikings, Cowboys and Packers in Super Bowl simulations on a neutral field. They are slight 51 percent favorites vs the Chargers at home. So the numbers are not necessarily the right indicator of how good each team is, but they do show just how important home-field advantage and a first-round bye are to helping a teams’ chances of winning the Super Bowl.

AFC

The Broncos lost a game they were heavily favored in and saw their chances cut in half dropping from 76 percent to just 37 percent. The Baltimore Ravens were the big winners in Week 15. Not only did they beat Chicago, but the Jets, Dolphins and Broncos (a team they beat) all lost. The Ravens chances improved 24 percentage points to nearly 59 percent. Even though they control their own destiny, the Ravens are definitely not an overwhelming favorite to make the playoffs as they are just one game ahead of a number of teams.

There are two Week 16 games that could go a long way in settling the AFC playoff picture. If the slight underdog Ravens beat Pittsburgh, they will likely be a lock for a playoff spot, and if Miami beats Houston, that will eliminate the Texans from the playoff picture. If the Ravens lose to Pittsburgh, then the AFC playoff picture is an absolute mess.

Rather than spend thousands of words running through different tie-breaker scenarios, the playoff picture is simpler if we focus on who has the best chance of winning the rest of their games.

The Ravens have the best chance of winning both their remaining games and when you combine that with the fact that they are 8-6 and still have a 5 percent chance of winning the AFC North, they have the best chance of wild card contenders of making the playoffs. The Broncos are second in playoff probability at 37 percent despite only having a 24 percent chance of winning their remaining games because they are also 8-6. The rest of the teams’ playoff chances are correlated to their descending chances of winning both their remaining games. This analysis does assume the Colts still play their starters most of the way vs. the Jets.

NFC

The Cowboys' major upset of the Saints improved their playoff chances by nearly 23 percentage points and they now have an 81 percent chance of making the playoffs even though have two tough games the rest of the season. The fact is, the Cowboys are an extremely talented team that can beat anyone when their pass rush is effective and they run the ball well.

The Packers are still in very good shape as they are heavy 87 percent favorites in Week 16 vs. Seattle and have a strong 45 percent chance of beating Arizona in Week 17. The Giants only have a 27 percent chance of making the playoffs but this analysis DOES NOT factor for the Vikings potentially resting their starters in Week 17. The Cowboys and Packers need to hope that the Eagles win in Week 16, which would force the Vikings to play their starters in Week 17 to maintain their No. 2 playoff seed.

The NFC playoff picture is obviously far simpler than the AFC playoff picture, although both conferences have two teams who control their own destiny. The fact is if the Packers and Cowboys miss the playoffs this season, it will qualify as a major collapse. If the Ravens and/or Broncos fail to make the playoffs, the collapse will not be as significant as the Packers or Cowboys, but it will still qualify as a collapse in our book.

AFC

The Denver Broncos have just a 10 percent chance of catching the Chargers to win the AFC West, but they do have a 76 percent of making the playoffs (66 percent as Wild Card). With two ‘easy’ games on their remaining schedule (Oakland and Kansas City) the Broncos have a very good shot at winning 10 games, which should be enough to make the playoffs. The real race in the AFC is for the final playoff spot with four teams at 7-6. These teams owe the Steelers, who lost to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns. Based on their winning percentage, the Steelers had a 0.6 percent chance of ‘accomplishing’ this miraculous feat.

Baltimore has a 35 percent chance of making the playoffs, Miami 32 percent, the Jets 22 percent and Jacksonville 22 percent. These odds are basically correlated to their chances of winning the rest of their games. The reason why Baltimore has such an advantage is their remaining opponents are all under .500 while the other 7-6 teams all have at least two winning teams on their schedule.

The reason why Miami, at a 32 percent chance of making the playoffs, is significantly better than the Jets at 22 percent and not far behind Baltimore’s despite having just a 10 percent chance of winning out, is Miami has a much better chance of winning their division. Miami has a 10 percent chance of winning the AFC East while Baltimore has just less than a 4 percent chance of winning the AFC North. Miami also has the 2-0 edge head-to-head against the Jets.

The Jets' chances are better than expected because they could benefit from teams resting starters. While the Colts are not likely to rest players in Week 15, they could definitely start resting players in Week 16 when they play the Jets. The Jets have just a 20 percent chance of beating the Colts if the Colts play their starters, but depending on what Indianapolis does the Jets could have a 50-50 shot in a game they had no business winning. If the Bengals have nothing to play for in Week 17, they could rest key starters vs. the Jets in Week 17. The Jets only have an 22 percent chance if their opponents do not rest in Week 16 and 17, but if they rest, the Jets have a nearly 30 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Jacksonville is the team that has the lowest chance of making the playoffs of the 7-6 teams because it will play a Colts team that says it is not going to rest in Week 15. They then play at New England and the Patriots are clinging to a one-game lead in their division so they will be playing at their best. Even the Week 17 game at Cleveland could be challenging as the Browns have put up a solid efforts even though they are just 2-11.

NFC

The Eagles' chances of making the playoffs jumped by over 17 percent thanks to beating the Giants and having the Cowboys lose. The Eagles have a 76 percent chance of winning the division, which is up from 43 percent a week ago. Even though Dallas is panicking after starting the month 0-2, it still has the best chance of getting the final Wild Card spot with a 58 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Giants are making the playoffs 32 percent of the time, which is not as far behind Dallas as you might think given they are one game behind the Cowboys.

The final Wild Card spot could come down to what the Minnesota Vikings do. It is very likely that Minnesota will be locked into a No. 2 playoff seed and will rest in Week 17 – a home game vs. the Giants. The Vikings are currently 74 percent favorites in this game, but if they rest key offensive and defensive starters and the Giants have a 50 percent chance of winning. In this scenario, the Giants have a 44 percent chance of making the playoffs just 9 points behind the Cowboys at 53 percent.

We are virtually conceding the other Wild Card spot to Green Bay who has nearly a 98 percent chance of making the playoffs. They have a one-game lead on the Cowboys and beat Dallas head-to-head. They also have one ‘easy’ game vs. the Seahawks in Week 16 and it is likely the Cardinals could be resting key starters in Week 17 when Green Bay goes to Arizona. Green Bay also has a decent chance of beating Pittsburgh given their struggles. The Packers have a 94 percent chance of winning 10 or more games this season while Dallas has just a 44 percent chance and the Giants a 10 percent chance.

The 49ers still have a measurable 16 percent chance of making the playoffs after sweeping the Cardinals. The Cardinals still have a two-game lead and with games vs. the Lions and Rams, they are a virtual lock to win 2 of their final 3 which would keep them at least one game ahead of the 49ers, even if San Francisco wins out.