AccuScore On SportsFanLive

In 10,000 simulations AccuScore generated the percent chance each team won the Super Bowl heading into championship Sunday.

Below is a review of AccuScore’s forecast compared to the current betting lines.  There is a somewhat surprising lack of difference between the two.  The odds (+Yes / -No) have been translated into an Odds % which is the chance that the Vegas Odds-Makers give each team to win.  The total Odds% is 111% because Vegas sportsbooks charge the vig to make a profit off betting.  If you remove the vig then you get the Odds% (No Vig).

The Chicago Bears were heavy 82 percent favorites to beat Seattle, and as a result last week they led the playoff teams in positive Diff at +4.3 percentage points.  Despite their impressive win they are now winning the Super Bowl just 14.3 percent of the time, which is less than the Odds would indicate.  This is due to the fact that Green Bay has been so impressive and is actually favored on the road against Chicago.  The Packers are winning the Super Bowl at the highest probability, 34.5 percent, but even at this rate they are not winning as much as the Vegas odds indicate (35.5 percent).

The Steelers may have lost to the Jets at home in the regular season, but as the Jets showed against the Patriots, regular season does not impact playoff performance.  Pittsburgh will have safety Troy Polamalu this time around, and as a result the Steelers are given a 32.1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.  The Jets are also given a higher chance by AccuScore than the Vegas odds indicate.

In 10,000 simulations AccuScore generated the percent chance each team won the Super Bowl after the Wild Card round. Below is a review of AccuScore’s forecast as compared to the current betting lines. There is a somewhat surprising lack of difference between the two. The odds (+Yes / -No) have been translated into an Odds % which is the chance that the Vegas Odds-Makers give each team to win. The total Odds% is 111% because Vegas sportsbooks charge a vig to make a profit off betting. If you remove the vig then you get the Odds% (No Vig).

When comparing AccuScore to the Odds% (No Vig) you see the Difference (Diff). The Jets and Ravens had impressive wild card road wins, but with road games against the Patriots and Steelers respectively it is still a pretty long shot for them even though they may be two of the best four teams in the league.

The Seahawks beat the Saints, but they are still given less than a one percent chance of shocking the world with a Super Bowl win. The Bears are benefiting by getting Seattle at home which is why their chances of winning the Super Bowl are higher than the odds would indicate. The Bears may have the most value compared to the odds, but they too are still a long shot. Atlanta definitely got the short end of the stick having to face Green Bay (6 seed) rather than Seattle (4 seed).

Using 10,000 simulations, AccuScore generated the percent chance each team won the Super Bowl. Not surprisingly the New England Patriots lead the league with a 31.6 percent chance of winning. This is nearly 2.5 times as high as the number two team which is Pittsburgh. The home field advantage that New England would have in a match-up with the Steelers is the key to the difference.

The Falcons lead the NFC with a 12.7 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. Again, their home field advantage combined with a first round bye helps them lead the conference. The Saints, despite having to play a road game to start the playoffs, are heavily favored winning nearly 80 percent of simulations at Seattle. Even though the Saints are seeded fifth, their advantage over the Seahawks puts them in the second favored position in the NFC.

Below is a review of AccuScore’s forecast as compared to the current betting lines. There is a somewhat surprising lack of difference between the two. The odds (+Yes / -No) have been translated into an Odds % which is the chance that the Vegas oddsmakers give each team to win. The total Odds% is 111% because Vegas sportsbooks charge the vig to make a profit off betting. If you remove the vig then you get the Odds% (no vig).

When comparing AccuScore to Odds% (no vig) you see the Difference (Diff). There are minimal differences indicating AccuScore does not have any really strong value betting recommendation in these playoffs. The Bears have the highest value based on a +1.1 percentage point difference, but at 9.1 percent overall they are still a long-shot. Laying money on the Seahawks is like playing the lottery.

By Stephen Oh
AccuScore.com

AFC
The Chiefs had quarterback Matt Cassel back and got a dominating rushing performance this past week to put them in a great position to take the AFC West.  The Chargers are heavy favorites in both of their remaining games, and have over a 55 percent chance of closing with two wins, but they do not control their own destiny.  With the Ravens and Jets both winning the chances of an AFC West team getting a Wild Card spot is unlikely.  San Diego and Oakland both won on Sunday, but their playoff chances still dropped considerably because of the Chiefs’ win.

By beating Pittsburgh on the road, the Jets got a huge win both in terms of building confidence and securing a playoff spot.  With a likely first round match-up against the inexperienced Chiefs, the Jets are probably better off in the sixth spot than the Ravens at five who will likely have to go to Indianapolis.   The Steelers may have lost to the Jets, but they locked up a playoff spot and are still likely to win the AFC North by having a better division record than the Ravens.

The Colts regained control over the AFC South and are the 63.6 percent favorite to win the division.  The Jaguars saw their chances drop over 20 percentage points by losing in Indianapolis.  There is only a 35 percent chance that the Jags win out, and even if they do they cannot pass the Colts who have the tiebreaker.

NFC
The Bears hammered the Vikings to win the NFC North, and the Packers saw their playoff chances plummet as a result.  If Aaron Rodgers is healthy the Packers are a 58 percent favorite to beat the Giants in Week 16 so they still have a chance if they can beat Chicago in Week 17.  The Saints and Giants may have both lost in Week 15, but they are still clear-cut favorites for the Wild Card spots.

The three team race for the NFC West is still alive.  Amazingly the 49ers control their own destiny and there is a 28 percent chance that they win out and take the division.  The Rams are actually winning less than 50 percent of Week 16 and Week 17 simulations, but they are still ultimately winning the division 43 percent of the time which is more than the 49ers and Seahawks.

AFC

The Jaguars big victory over Tennessee would have boosted their playoff chances considerably by itself;  when the Colts lost at home to the Cowboys it vaulted the Jaguars’ playoff chances up +30 percent.   Jacksonville is now the favorite to represent the AFC South with a 48 percent chance of winning the division.  The Colts are still not far behind at 39 percent, but a Week 14 win at Tennessee is a must.  Only one AFC South team will make the playoffs as the four teams are projected to combine for just a 1.6 percent chance of earning a Wild Card spot.

Kansas City got a close win against Denver which improved its playoff chances slightly alone, but the Chargers loss at home to the Raiders boosted the Chiefs’ chances over 18 percentage points.  The Chargers’ chances plummeted over 31 percentage points.  The Raiders are now averaging 8 wins per season simulation which is solid improvement this season, but they are still forecasted third in the division with just an 18 percent chance of making the playoffs. 

Pittsburgh got a huge win over Baltimore and is now virtually a lock to make the playoffs at over a 99 percent chance.  The Steelers’ chances of winning the AFC North jumped from 46 to 79 percent.  Baltimore may have seen its division chances drop from 54 to 21 percent, but the overall playoff chances only dipped 5 percentage points thanks to losses by the Colts and Chargers.  Cincinnati has been eliminated from playoff contention with a 0 percent chance, but Cleveland is barely hanging on with an 0.3 percent chance of earning a Wild Card spot.

New England only improved their playoff chances by 2.2 percent and the Jets only dipped -0.1 percent, but the significance of the Patriots’ dominating win should not be underestimated.  The Patriots are now the heavy 84 percent favorite to win the division, and their chances of advancing the Super Bowl are up considerably now that they are in position for the top overall playoff seed.  They have beaten both the Ravens and the Jets at home while beating up the Steelers on the road.

NFC

Seattle got a win over Carolina, and with San Francisco losing the Seahawks are up +8 percentage points this week.  St. Louis however, is still the favorite to win the NFC West at 62.5 percent.   This division will likely come down to who wins the Rams versus Seahawks Week 17 game.  Even though the game is in Seattle the Rams are even with the Seahawks in current simulations.  San Francisco is down to just 3.7 percent and the Cardinals are officially eliminated after making the playoffs in none of the simulations.

The New Orleans offense is clicking and the Saints up +7.6 percentage points after a road win in Cincinnati.  The Falcons only saw a +2.1 percentage point increase, but that is because they are already so close to having a 100 percent chance.  Tampa Bay played well, but after the home loss to Atlanta their playoff chances are down over -13 percent to just a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Eagles won again and saw their playoff chances improve +5.7 percentage points.  The Giants also won and while their loss crushed the Redskins’ playoff chances, the Giants’ chances actually dropped this week.  This is because two of their remaining opponents, Green Bay and Minnesota, are projected better in simulations than they were last week.  The Giants need to become Cowboys fans because Dallas plays the Eagles twice.  Currently the Eagles are 67 and 83 percent favorites against the Cowboys which is why they have the best chance of winning the division at nearly 74 percent.

Green Bay still trails Chicago in the division, but Chicago’s difficult remaining schedule (vs. NE, @ Min, vs. NYJ, @ GB) could result in the Bears winning only one more game.  The Packers have an easier schedule with games against the Lions, and are at home versus their tougher opponents like the Bears and Giants.  The Packers are favored in three of their final four games which is why they are winning the NFC North in a majority (56 percent) of simulations. 

AFC
There was minimal movement in the AFC this week. Kansas City was the big gainer improving +8 percentage points with its road win, but was followed closely by San Diego which got a huge road win over the Colts. The Chargers are playing excellent football and are forecasted to overtake Kansas City with a 72 percent chance of taking the AFC West again. The Raiders were the big loser this week with their home loss and wins by the Chiefs and Chargers.

Indianapolis was the second biggest loser this week dropping -4 percentage points, but it still leads the AFC South in playoff probability at 54.9 percent. Jacksonville and Tennessee both lost which helped the Colts maintain their lead in the division. Jacksonville is expected to drop back due to a tough upcoming schedule. The Texans did improve +3.3 percent, but they still have just a 6.3 percent chance of getting a playoff spot (only 0.1 percent chance of a Wild Card spot).

Baltimore is up to a 93 percent chance of making the playoffs heading into a showdown with Pittsburgh. The Ravens have home field advantage, and are 54.5 percent favorites to beat the Steelers. The winner of this matchup will clearly vault to the lead in the division winner race, but the loser should be in the playoffs. The Browns do not have any shot at the playoffs, but they can play major spoiler with Week 16 games against Baltimore and Week 17 against Pittsburgh.

The Jets and Patriots clash this week and like Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the winner of this AFC East matchup will vault to over a 75 percent chance of taking the division. The loser though should still be in excellent playoff position. Miami has less than a one percent chance of winning the division but its Wild Card chances are still relevant. Like Cleveland in the AFC north, the Bills have the talent to play spoiler in Week 16 and 17 versus the Jets and Patriots.

NFC
In a division where the winner may only finish with seven wins, a one game swing has huge ramifications. In the case of the NFC West a road win by the Rams combined with a home loss by the Seahawks flipped these teams’ fortunes with the Rams doubling their playoff chances to 61 percent while the Seahawks’ chances were cut by more than half (-30.7 percent). The 49ers are playing better, but still may be running out of time with only an 11 percent chance. No NFC West team is making the playoffs as a Wild Card in simulations.

The Bears also jumped up this week (+25 percent) with an impressive win versus the Eagles combined with a tough loss for the Packers who dropped -14 percent. The Bears are still just sixth in the NFC in playoff position because of their tough remaining schedule with games against the Patriots, Jets and on the road at Green Bay. The Packers are one game back of the Bears, but having home field advantage against Chicago in Week 17 gives them a 70 percent chance of winning what could be the deciding game in the division. Minnesota is not mathematically eliminated, but has less than a one percent chance.

The NFC East saw the Giants get back on the winning track and improve nearly 10 percentage points while the Eagles dropped nearly 13 percentage points. The Eagles are still favored to win the division at 62.6 percent. Any chance that Dallas had of making a miraculous comeback were eliminated on Thanksgiving with their loss to the Saints and Washington is barely hanging on at just a 1.5 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Atlanta has the best record in the league and the highest playoff probability in the NFC at 97 percent. The Saints are looking good with over an 84 percent chance, and Tampa Bay is still hanging on at 43.7 percent. The Bucs’ loss to Baltimore combined with the Giants win dropped Tampa Bay out of the sixth projected playoff spot. Tampa’s playoff chances hinge on the Week 13 game against Atlanta in which the Falcons are 57 percent favorites in simulations.

Each quarterback is the cornerstone of his franchise, and health has a significant impact on his team’s overall record and playoff probability. With Matthew Stafford set to return, Brett Favre limping around, and Tony Romo with a broken collarbone, AccuScore simulated the rest of the season for the Vikings, Cowboys and Lions to measure each starter’s value compared to their backup.

Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo vs. Jon Kitna
Despite getting off to a 1-5 start the Dallas Cowboys were still clinging to a 19.5 percent chance of making the playoffs due to the overall mediocrity in the NFC.  Now that Tony Romo is out for 6-8 weeks the Cowboys are forced to rely on Jon Kitna thus rendering their season basically over.

The loss of Romo has caused Dallas’s playoff probability tumble from 17.4 percent to a meager 2.1 percent.  The Cowboys can say goodbye to the playoffs as their woes are expected to continue in the win-loss column.  With Romo at quarterback, AccuScore projected Dallas to finish the season with a 7-9 record. Kitna finishing the season at quarterback creates a four game swing with the Cowboys finishing just 5-11. 

Minnesota Vikings: Brett Favre vs. Tavaris Jackson
The difference between Brett Favre starting for the Vikings for the remainder of the season compared to Tavaris Jackson is roughly one game. That one extra win Favre provides translates into a Vikings playoff probability of 55.6 percent vs. 36.3 percent with Jackson.

The number makes it is clear the Vikings need to be all-in with Favre, but also highlights his decline.  Before the season started the Vikings were 16 percent more likely to win a game with Favre starting over Jackson. Now with Favre’s less than stellar play that number has been reduced to 7.7 percent margin.

To further illustrate Favre’s decline this season AccuScore projected the Vikings to be 11-5 in the preseason with Favre and 9-7 with Jackson.  Now AccuScore projects a Favre-led Vikings squad to finish with nine wins or the same number that the simulations predicted for Minnesota had they simply gone with Jackson and avoided all the quarterback drama.

Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford vs. Drew Stanton
The return of Matthew Stafford is a catch-22 for Detroit. The Lions are not a threat to make the playoffs no matter who plays quarterback, but Stafford is more likely to produce wins and hurt Detroit’s draft positioning.

Stafford’s return to the starting gig makes the Lions a far more competitive team, but they will still be significant underdogs in their remaining games. With Stafford resuming control the Lions are projected to finish the season 4-12 vs. 2-14 if Stanton were to play for the rest of the year. Detroit has suffered enough in recent years and probably isn’t too worried about draft positioning for yet another season.

AFC

The Baltimore Ravens struggled to beat the Bills but still saw a solid +7.6 percent improvement in playoff probability. The Ravens benefited by losses by the Bengals and Chargers – two Wild Card competitors. The Steelers lead the entire NFL in playoff probability at nearly 89 percent, and despite their loss at home to Baltimore the Steelers still have the edge in the AFC North 57 to 43 percent. The Bengals only have a 2 percent chance of making the playoffs after another disheartening loss. The Browns have to be pleased with their solid play in recent weeks, but they still have no shot at the playoffs.

The big loser in the AFC was the Miami Dolphins. They not only got the very short end of the stick at home vs Pittsburgh, but with none of the teams ahead of them in playoff probability losing, it resulted in a nearly 20 percentage point drop. The Patriots and Jets are in a very tight battle for the division with the Jets getting the slightest advantage by virtue of beating New England back in Week 2. The Bills should have beaten Baltimore but the moral victory is small consolation and their 0 percent playoff probability does not help much either.

The Tennessee Titans not only got a quality win over the Eagles, they saw their playoff chances improve +12 points and they are quickly closing the gap on the Colts. The Colts were idle but lost 5.1 playoff percentage points partly due to the wins by other AFC playoff contenders and partly due to the injuries they have suffered. The Houston Texans are 4-2, but they have struggled the past few weeks and AccuScore is expecting the Texans to head straight for another 8-8 season once they have to go back on the road.

The Kansas City Chiefs impressively beat Jacksonville while the Chargers once again fumbled their way to a deficit that they could not quite come back from. The Chiefs are now solid 63 percent favorites in the AFC West. The Chargers playoff chances have dropped double digits for a second straight week and now they are a long shot to make the playoffs despite being #1 in the league in passing and Top 3 in both pas and rush defense. The Oakland Raiders demolished Denver but they cannot expect an aberrant performance like this again. The Raiders and Broncos both have under a 5 percent chance of making the playoffs.

NFC

The Dallas Cowboys’ playoff chances plummeted from 31 to virtually 2 percent. Ten percentage points was due to another loss (to the Giants) and the other 20 is due to the possible season ending injury to Tony Romo. The Giants are well-positioned to take the division with a dynamic offense and quality defense. The Giants have a 64 percent chance of winning the NFC East. The Eagles are still sitting in a good position for a Wild Card at a 56 percent chance of making the playoffs. Washington has played well enough to see their playoff chances improve to nearly 29 percent this week.

The Minnesota Vikings saw their playoff chances drop double digits after losing to Green Bay. Brett Favre could miss several games due to injury and even though he has not played well this year AccuScore simulations indicate that the Vikings are +8 percentage points better, on average, with Favre than with Tarvaris Jackson. Green Bay saw a huge +16 percentage point improvement after beating the Vikings and getting another horrible loss by the Bears. Chicago dropped nearly 10 percentage points after losing at home thanks to poor decisions by the Coaching staff and QB Jay Cutler.

Atlanta is second to the NY Giants in playoff probability in the NFC after beating the Bengals. The Falcons’ playoff chances improved more than expected because the Saints suffered a horrible home loss. The Saints dropped 12.5 points, but even with all their struggles have the third highest playoff percentage in the NFC. The Saints are benefiting from the mediocrity in the NFC. Tampa Bay is second in the division but AccuScore is not yet a believer in the Bucs. They improved +10 points but they still only have a 23 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Seattle Seahawks may run away with the NFC West title by merely going 8-8 or 9-7 which could give them a 2 to 3 game lead at the end of the season. The Seahawks improved +13 percentage points by beating a division rival at home. It also helped that the rest of the division all lost again. The Rams lost to Tampa Bay but only saw a modest –3.6 point drop because even with the loss they still played very well for most of the game defensively which bodes well for the rest of the season. The 49ers have no business having as high a playoff probability as they have (12.9 percent) being 1-6, but in this division and conference you are apparently never really out of playoff contention.

AFC
The Tennessee Titans were seven point underdogs against Dallas. By winning a game they were supposed to lose helped them lead the AFC in playoff probability improvement at +20.7 percent. The Titans were helped by the Texans who not only lost at home, but played so poorly they hurt their projected performance in Week 6 to 17 simulations. The gains Houston made last week were completely reversed in Week 5. The Colts and Jaguars both showed slight improvements after wins in which they were favored. Indianapolis is still the favorite to win its division at just over 50 percent.

The Baltimore Ravens are tied for the best record in the conference and have beaten the other 4-1 AFC team, the New York Jets. The Ravens solidly beat the Broncos at home, a game Baltimore was supposed to win. Baltimore was helped out by Cincinnati which has lost two games in a row in which it was the clear cut favorite. The Bengals’ -10.7 percentage point drop is virtually identical to the Ravens +10.5 percent. The Ravens and idle Steelers are in a virtual tie for the division.

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The New England Patriots were on a bye week, but still managed to drop -12.6 percentage points. This is due to a combination of factors including the win by the Jets and the trade of Randy Moss. The Patriots’ chances of winning the AFC East dropped around 8 percentage points after the Moss trade. The Miami Dolphins actually picked up +9.8 points by being idle this week. Like the Jets, the Dolphins benefited from the Moss trade and the losses by other wild card competitors like Cincinnati, San Diego, Houston, and Denver.

The San Diego Chargers have dominated in many key offensive and defensive statistics and have outscored their opponents by 34 points. Despite that large point differential they are just 2-3. AccuScore expects that even if San Diego’s special teams continues to be a weakness teams won’t be scoring 7-10 points against them a game. The Chargers also can’t possibly continue turning the ball over in the red zone at this high a rate. As undisciplined as the Chargers have played they are still the clear-cut favorite at 59 percent to take the division like they have been in previous seasons. The Chiefs are looking like a legitimate playoff contender, but despite their 3-1 record they only have a 46.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. Their chances actually improved slightly after a loss to the Colts because they played well in the loss which boosted their performance in future game simulations.

NFC
The Eagles, Giants, and Redskins all got impressive wins and collectively benefitted from another bad Cowboys loss. Dallas dropped -16.7 percentage points, but still has a decent 33 percent chance of ultimately winning the division. The Redskins should be commended for their three impressive wins over playoff teams but AccuScore expects them to ultimately fall back in the NFC East with just a 7.5 percent chance of winning the division.

Tampa Bay jumped over 28 percentage points in playoff probability after a shocking comeback in Cincinnati to move its record to 3-1. It goes without saying that a win for the Bucs in Week 6 against the Saints would do wonders for their division chances which are still only 8.6 percent, well behind Atlanta and New Orleans. The Saints are clearly struggling, and dropped -16.6 percentage points this week. Statistically, they have performed like an average offensive team and below average defensive team in 2010. Despite their current struggles, the Saints still have the second highest playoff probability in the NFC. Atlanta has the highest probability after starting 4-1, and most importantly winning at New Orleans.

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The Vikings lost to the Jets Monday night, but still improved 10.2 percentage points. That is what happens when rival Green Bay also loses the same week along with a number of key players to injury. Minnesota also got a +8 percentage point bump simply by trading for Randy Moss who is not only expected to score his fair share of touchdowns, but also improve the play of Percy Harvin. Minnesota is only 1-3, but is technically second in the NFC North. The Vikings’ performance against the Packers and Bears will ultimately determine their playoff success. The Packers were the big losers in the division dropping nearly 24 percent after a loss in which they were favored. The loss combined with the injuries severely undercut their chances in Week 6 and possibly Week 7. Chicago beat Carolina and improved +13.4 percentage points thanks to the win and Green Bay’s loss and murky near future.

The Rams were the big winner last week because their defense looked poised to go from being one of the worst in the league to average or better. That notion may be out the window after getting blown out by Detroit. St. Louis’ future offensive performance was also hurt by the injury to leading receiver Mark Clayton. The Rams dropped -20 percentage points this week. The Arizona Cardinals may finish the season in the bottom third of the league offensively and defensively based on yardage or points allowed and still win the division. They are the leader at 3-2, and have a 31.8 percent chance of taking the NFC West. San Francisco lost again, but actually managed to pick up a few percentage points thanks to the bad loss by St. Louis. Believe it or not, the 49ers appear to still be in contention for the division at 20.3 percent.

AFC

After a 2-0 start, the Kansas City Chiefs were only given a 17.6 percent chance of making the playoffs but after a 3^rd win they are up +32 percentage points. While the win itself helped, the main reason why their improvement was so marked was the quality of the play offensively and defensively. This ‘helps’ the Chiefs play better in future game simulations. The Chiefs also benefited from losses by the rest of the division – San Diego, Denver and Oakland. The slow-starting Chargers are still favored to ultimately take the division at 63.1 percent, but the Chiefs have to be given proper respect.

In the AFC North, the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers all won and all saw improvement in their playoff chances after Week 3 wins. The Steelers have been the most impressive team in the division and are favored to win the division at 58.3 percent. Baltimore lost to Cincinnati but they are projected to finish ahead of the Bengals in the division. Cincinnati has the tougher schedule as last year’s division winner and Carson Palmer has just not performed well at all. Cleveland puts up a solid effort each week but with no wins they are already eliminated from playoff contention in simulations.

The New York Jets defense was not very good without Darrelle Revis in Week 3, but they still had a huge win as the offense lifted the team. The Jets are now leading the AFC East. The Patriots beat Buffalo, but their defense has to be a major concern after allowing 30 points to Buffalo. The Dolphins took the biggest hit dropping nearly 19 percentage points. They had the double whammy of losing at home and losing to a division opponent.

The AFC South has quickly reverted back to the typical scenario that one has come to expect. Indianapolis looks like the class of the division despite a lack of a running game and running defense. Tennessee and Houston are talented enough to win any game they play, but ultimately they still lay too many eggs every few weeks to take control of the division. The Texans dropped over 30 percentage points for 3 reasons: 1) they lost, 2) the Titans and Colts both won, and 3) they played poorly offensively and defensively. Poor performance often hurts more than the actual loss because it reduces winning percentages in all future games.

NFC

Michael Vick was AccuScore’s pick to start for the Eagles before Kevin Kolb was benched and Vick has more than lived up to our high expectations. He obviously has good chemistry with his big play WRs and he has not lost a step scrambling with the ball. With no real reason to doubt that Vick can maintain his high level of play the Eagles are up +27 percent this week and are the projected NFC East leader with a 50.1 percent chance of taking the division. The Cowboys helped their cause by beating Houston, but they are still 1-2 and as big as the win over the Texans was psychologically, a win over a non-conference opponent just does not help as much as losses within the division or conference can hurt. The Giants keep making a ridiculous number of mental and physical errors. Their playoff chances have dropped nearly 24 percent. Washington was taken out quite easily by St. Louis and their chances are now under 5 percent.

The Seahawks’ upset victory over San Diego helped them improve around 12 percentage points, but the rest of the +27 point improvement comes from the San Francisco disastrous start and their willingness to rely on their more dynamic play-makers like Justin Forsett and Leon Washington over aging veterans like Julius Jones. The San Francisco 49ers plummeted over 30 percentage points. An 0-3 start combined with a surprisingly poor defensive effort in Week 3 all lead to a worst case scenario for San Francisco. Arizona technically won in Week 3 but without Kurt Warner this team is a long shot at making the playoffs even though they are in a very weak division.

No single goat will likely have a bigger impact on a divisional race than Garrett Hartley. His missed OT Field Goal delivered a seismic shift in the NFC South with the Saints going from an 85 percent favorite to win the division do a 56 percent favorite. The Falcons are now in a great position to obviously make the playoffs at nearly 74 percent which is 3^rd highest in the NFC. The Saints still have an exceedingly high 86 percent chance to make the playoffs because their schedule has plenty of easy games on it and there is a lack of competition in the NFC for Wild Card spots due to the weakness of the NFC West.

The Vikings won in week 3 but they still saw their playoff chances drop nearly 18 percent because beating Detroit at home was expected. Chicago beating Green Bay was not expected and with the Bears’ emergence and +17.6 percentage point improvement their rise is the Vikings’ loss. Just as important as the Bears’ emergence is the continued lackluster play of the Vikings passing game. With every passing week the simulations rely more on 2010 Season data and less on 2009 data. Green Bay lost at Chicago but except for penalties and their late fumble, they still looked like the team to beat with a dynamic offense and defense.

By Stephen Oh and Jonathan Lee

AccuScore approves of Andy Reid’s decision to stick with Michael Vick as the starting quarterback.  The Eagles’ playoff chances are 8.8% better with Vick starting over Kevin Kolb for the rest of the season.

The NFC East is forecasted to be extremely close regardless of who start at quarterback for Philly. In the overall season projection the switch at quarterback makes the Eagles go from having the third best chance of winning the division to the number one spot.

The move was not an easy one to make when taking contracts into account as the Eagles signed Kolb to a lucrative two-year extension back in April. Kolb signed for $12.25 million, but $11.4 million of that is guaranteed for THIS season. Vick on the other hand has an incentive-laden non-guaranteed contract that will more than likely increase in price for Philly now that he is the full-time starter.

By Jonathan Lee and Stephen Oh

Reggie Bush might not be the superstar everydown back many expected him to be when he was drafted, but he has become a dangerous weapon in the Saints offense. So with the news Bush will miss up to six weeks with a fractured fibula, how much of an effect, if any, will this have for New Orleans?

The answer is probably not as much as you’d think. AccuScore projections don’t expect this injury to impact the team all that much. While the loss of Bush is measurable, it does not cost the Saints significantly in terms of wins. Over the next six weeks, the Saints average 4.6 wins with Bush and 4.5 without him, a difference of just 0.1 win.

Bush has missed a total of 12 games over the past 4 seasons (2006-09). Over that time New Orleans has averaged 25.3 points per game with him in the lineup, and 32.7 points per game without him. While strength of schedule, and random chance helps explain the difference there, it does show that the team is perfectly of continuing to perform at a high level without Bush.

This week’s scoring leaders are littered with the usual names except two defenses ranking in the top 20, 2 back-up running backs listed below, as well as an aberrant Mark Sanchez performing up to his inflated reputation.  On to the wire.

Jason Snelling, RB, Falcons
95.7% available on ESPN, 80% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 24 carries, 129 rushing yards, 5 catches, 57 receiving yards, 3 TDs
Week 3 projection: 4.3 carries, 22 rushing yards, 0.72 catches, 6 receiving yards

He is not a must-add, but clearly he’s a must-own handcuff to Michael Turner. Turner was on his way to a spectacular day before leaving with a groin injury (9 carries, 75 yards). He reportedly was cleared to return, but the Falcons held him out to make sure he was healthy. Of course if Turner suffers a more serious injury at any point in the season, Snelling is the number one fantasy replacement option given the way the Atlanta offense is geared around the run. Another point to remember in this situation is that you should always start your running backs against the woeful Cardinals defense.

Mike Tolbert, RB, Chargers
99.4% available on ESPN, 99% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 16 carries, 82 rushing yards, 1 catch, 13 receiving yards, 1 TD
Week 3 projection: 5.4 carries, 28 rushing yards, 2.07 catches, 24 receiving yards

Like Snelling, Tolbert is not an immediate must-add but he must be owned as a handcuff to Ryan Mathews. San Diego’s prized rookie was carted off the field in the first quarter on Sunday, and later returned to the sidelines but not the game. With the way the Chargers doled out playing time I think Tolbert would be the primary back to replace Mathews in the event he misses time with Sproles remaining as a third-down back or change-of-pace guy. San Diego doesn’t view Sproles as a full-time player which bodes well for Tolbert’s value. Tolbert could be worth a pick-up as a speculative hold while monitoring Mathews’ health this week in practice.

Earnest Graham, RB, Buccaneers
99.7% available on ESPN, 99% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 3 rushes, 1 rushing yard, 5 catches, 33 receiving yards, 1 TD
Week 3 projection:  4.7 carries, 13 rushing yards, 1.71 catches, 12 receiving yards

Tampa Bay rushed for only 95 yards on 34 carries as a team against Carolina. This isn’t a great running team, but the upside with Graham is that he was the only other back besides Cadillac Williams to receive a carry while he was second on the team with six targets in the passing game. This is just an alert for you to be prepared when the inevitable Williams injury comes later on this season.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
98% available on ESPN, 82% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 9 targets, 8 catches, 97 receiving yards, 1 TD
Week 3 projection: 5.18 catches, 60 receiving yards, 0.22 TD

Thomas made his debut Sunday, and led the Broncos with nine targets. Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney were next on that list with five apiece. Thomas has the size and skills to be a rookie facsimile of Brandon Marshall for Denver’s offense. He looks to be the top target for Kyle Orton, and while he probably will be inconsistent he is the top WR waiver option this week.

Kevin Walter, WR, Texans
89.3% available on ESPN, 66% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 11 targets, 11 catches, 144 receiving yards, 1 TD
Week 3 projection: 3.28 catches, 40 receiving yards, 0.27 TD

This is back-to-back weeks with touchdowns for Walter. After gashing the Colts on the ground and throwing only 17 passes last week, Houston got back to its passing identity with Matt Schaub putting the ball up 52 times. Walter is third on the team with 13 targets through two games. While he won’t be consistent, Walter is a nice back-up WR to have as a solid player on a very good offense. Remember, he has averaged 59 catches over the past 3 seasons with 14 TDs.

Louis Murphy, WR, Raiders
69.5% available on ESPN, 71% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 10 targets, 6 catches, 91 receiving yards, 1 TD
Week 3 projection: 4.6 catches, 35 receiving yards, 0.16 TD

Murphy leads the Raiders with 17 targets through 2 weeks, and should continue to be a top target for whoever is playing QB. He did have a solid rookie showing considering the mess that was Oakland in 2009 so with the team slightly more competent this year, and Darren McFadden providing a running game, Murphy is a decent WR3 option for fantasy teams.

Nate Washington, WR, Titans
62.5% available on ESPN, 50% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 9 targets, 4 catches, 34 receiving yards, 1 TD
Week 3 projection: 2.62 catches, 34 receiving yards, 0.16 TD

This is the second straight week Washington is a solid pick-up for fantasy owners as he was snapped up in 34.9% of ESPN leagues a week ago. Expect a similar jump up again as Washignton scored for the second straight week. While he only has eight total catches this season, he leads the Titans with 13 targets. Running back Chris Johnson is second with 10. Washington has teased fantasy owners before, but this FINALLY might the year he puts up a more consistent effort as he is clearly the favorite Titans receiver through two weeks.

Tony Moeaki, TE, Chiefs
98.6% available on ESPN, 91% on CBS
Week 2 stats: 10 targets, 5 catches, 58 receiving yards
Week 3 projection: 3.24 catches, 32 receiving yards, 0.14 TD

Moeaki scored Week 1, and leads the Chiefs with 14 targets. He’s a weapon and QB Matt Cassel is going to him. Moeaki was always talented, but his production was limited at Iowa because of various injuries. He’s healthy now however, and performing up to his talent.

By Jonathan Lee

The Niners were the preseason favorites to take the NFC West, but are facing the daunting task of trying to avoid a 0-2 start against the defending Super Bowl champions. Even with the advantage of being at home, winning might be tougher than San Francisco fans would like to admit. 

AccuScore simulations project the Saints to be heavy favorites covering the five-point spread 59 percent of the time, and winning outright almost 72 percent of the time.  On the bright side for the Niners, each of their division counterparts has already lost this week. The Saints are looking to match the surprising Bucs in the NFC South at 2-0.

The play of quarterback Alex Smith will be a critical key for San Francisco. He is projected for 215 passing yards, but just a 73 rating. In the 28 percent of simulations where he leads his team to a victory his TD-INT ratio is 2.3-1 compared to a dismal 0.76-1 in forecasted losses. Running back Frank Gore also averages 44 more rushing yards and nearly twice as many touchdowns in wins as compared to losses. All of this basically means that the Niners offense must perform very well to keep up with Drew Brees and the Saints to have a realistic shot at winning.  Brees is projected for nearly 270 yards passing and a 102 passer rating in average simulations.

Both teams actually performed very well defensively in Week 1. San Francisco held Seattle to just 242 total yards, but lost by 25 due to an interception returned for a score. Another interception led directly to another Seahawks touchdown off a short field. If the Saints are able to force two or more turnovers their winning percentage in simulations rises to 81% and their average margin of victory jumps up to 12 points. If Smith were to protect the football and not throw an interception, San Francisco is projected to win 42% of the time and cuts its average deficit to a very manageable 2 points.

One thing to remember is that New Orleans has had extra time to prepare for this game having last played the Vikings on Sept. 9 to kick-off the season. The Saints have beaten San Francisco five times in a row.  Last season in games involving either New Orleans or San Francisco AccuScore correctly picked the game winner 26 out of 35 times.

Week 1 of the NFL is in the books, and already there are key injuries (Ryan Grant, Kris Jenkins) and even a trade (Laurence Maroney). Here are the best players available that you should be targeting on waivers for fantasy domination.

Brandon Jackson, RB, Packers
97.9% available on ESPN, 73% on CBS
Week 1 stats: 18 carries, 63 yds rushing, 2 catches, 12 yds receiving
Week 2 projection: 20 carries, 92 yds rushing, 0.79 total TD, 23 yds receiving

Ryan Grant is out for the season with a fractured ankle and ligament damage. Jackson was undoubtedly the number one pick-up this week, and this only further increases his value. He is worth spending the majority of your FAAB to get him. He has favorable match-ups coming up with Buffalo on Sunday and Chicago and Detroit in the following weeks. Jackson has moved in the top 15 fantasy running backs in our season long projections.

Fred Taylor, RB, New England Patriots
78.7% available on ESPN, 58% on CBS
Week 1 stats: 14 carries, 71 yds rushing, 2 catches, 6 yds receiving
Week 2 projection: 13 carries, 63 yds rushing, 0.48 total TD, 3 yds receiving

While New England will still rotate running backs, the trade of Laurence Maroney clears some room in the backfield. The trade can also been seen as a vote of confidence for the veteran Taylor. Taylor got 61% of the Patriots carries in Week 1, and should continue to see a similar workload as long as he remains healthy. With the way New England’s offense hummed in the opener, Taylor could be a nice secondary option at running back.

Mark Clayton, WR, St. Louis Rams
95.5% available on ESPN
Week 1 stats: 16 targets, 10 catches, 119 yds
Week 2 projection: 4.4 catches, 61 yds receiving, 0.2 TD
Danny Amendola, WR, St. Louis Rams
98.8% available on ESPN, CBS, Yahoo
Week 1 stats: 9 targets, 6 catches, 67 yds
Week 2 projection: 2.9 catches, 26 yds receiving, 0.11 TD

The Rams are going to be throwing the ball plenty this season. Rookie quarterback Sam Bradford went to the air 55 times against Arizona against just 24 rushing attempts with almost half those passes headed toward these two receivers. Bradford will struggle this year, but looks worthy of the number one overall selection which boosts the value of both Clayton and Amendola. Clayton is clearly the number one receiver receiving nearly twice as many targets as the next two players (Amendola and Laurent Robinson) combined. Because of this, Clayton is actually forecasted for a 1000 yard season. The Wes Welker comparisons for Amendola are inevitable. Both guys went undrafted, were incredibly successful playing at Texas Tech, and fit perfectly in the slot. Think of Amendola as Welker-lite; he’s on a worse team and offense but should still be able to put up numbers. Amendola has extra value in PPR leagues, just like Welker.

Austin Collie, WR, Indianapolis Colts
21.9% available on ESPN, 34% on CBS
Week 1 stats: 12 targets, 11 catches, 163 yds, 1 TD
Week 2 projections: 4.2 catches, 56 yds, 0.56 TD

You only need to look as far as Brandon Stokley to know that the 3rd receiver for the Colts can still be a dominant force in fantasy. Collie probably had his best game of the season in Week 1, but a repeat performance is never out of the question with Peyton Manning throwing him passes. Anthony Gonzalez is out for Week 2 with a high ankle sprain, an injury that is notoriously tough to recover from. Collie isn’t widely available, but I’m listing him here because he should be universally owned.

Legedu Naanee, WR, San Diego Chargers
61.3% available on ESPN, 71 % on CBS
Week 1 stats: 8 targets, 5 catches, 110 yds, 1 TD
Week 2 projections: 3.4 catches, 42 yards receiving, 0.41 TD

With Vincent Jackson out for the foreseeable future, Naanee is the primary beneficiary. Quarterback Philip Rivers has clicked quickly with receivers in the past – Jackson, Malcolm Floyd – so a solid for Naanee could be the start of a trend. Teams will be focused on stopping Floyd and Antonio Gates so Naanee should face plenty of single coverage this season.

Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos
65% available on ESPN,
Week 1 stats: 21/33, 295 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 INT, 12 yds rushing
Week 2 projections: 62% completion, 251 yds passing, 1 TD, 0.76 INT, 5 yds rushing

The Broncos threw 33 times while running 25 times. The trade for Laurence Maroney seems like a cry for help for the ground game which means Denver will probably continue to be a passing offense. Orton finished among the top 15 QBs last year (standard scoring) and while he’s not elite he can be a solid back-up option. AccuScore projects him as the 16th best quarterback for the rest of the season.

David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
79.6% available on ESPN, 64% on CBS
Week 1 stats: 16/21, 170 yds passing, 3 TD, 0 INT, 10 yds rushing
Week 2 projections: 63% completion, 208 yds passing, 1.04 TD, 0.7 INT, 18 yds rushing

Garrard posted a career high passer rating in Week 1 (138.9) in leading his team to a win against Denver. While he’s not a flashy name, or some hotshot rookie Garrard should be a nice steady option and a solid fantasy back-up. For the season he is projected to average better than 12 points per week the rest of the season, and ranks 15th overall according to our player rankings. If for some reason you were banking on Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, or Mark Sanchez this year change your mind quickly and pick up Garrard.

Chiefs D/ST
99.2% available on ESPN
Week 1 stats: 14 points allowed, 1 return TD, 1 fumble recovery, 2 sacks
Week 2 projection: 19.7 points allowed, 1.3 sacks, 2.57 turnovers

The Chiefs are not world beaters by any means, but oftentimes with fantasy D/ST it all comes down to match-ups. And in this case, being in the AFC West is a very good thing. KC has a nice match-up in Cleveland this week, and then San Francisco for Week 3. Also looking ahead it has St. Louis in Week 15 just in time for your final playoff match-up. And with Javier Arenas and Dexter McCluster returning kicks, you could get just the boost your team needs.