AccuScore On SportsFanLive

In 10,000 simulations AccuScore generated the percent chance each team won the Super Bowl after the Wild Card round. Below is a review of AccuScore’s forecast as compared to the current betting lines. There is a somewhat surprising lack of difference between the two. The odds (+Yes / -No) have been translated into an Odds % which is the chance that the Vegas Odds-Makers give each team to win. The total Odds% is 111% because Vegas sportsbooks charge a vig to make a profit off betting. If you remove the vig then you get the Odds% (No Vig).

When comparing AccuScore to the Odds% (No Vig) you see the Difference (Diff). The Jets and Ravens had impressive wild card road wins, but with road games against the Patriots and Steelers respectively it is still a pretty long shot for them even though they may be two of the best four teams in the league.

The Seahawks beat the Saints, but they are still given less than a one percent chance of shocking the world with a Super Bowl win. The Bears are benefiting by getting Seattle at home which is why their chances of winning the Super Bowl are higher than the odds would indicate. The Bears may have the most value compared to the odds, but they too are still a long shot. Atlanta definitely got the short end of the stick having to face Green Bay (6 seed) rather than Seattle (4 seed).

Using 10,000 simulations, AccuScore generated the percent chance each team won the Super Bowl. Not surprisingly the New England Patriots lead the league with a 31.6 percent chance of winning. This is nearly 2.5 times as high as the number two team which is Pittsburgh. The home field advantage that New England would have in a match-up with the Steelers is the key to the difference.

The Falcons lead the NFC with a 12.7 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. Again, their home field advantage combined with a first round bye helps them lead the conference. The Saints, despite having to play a road game to start the playoffs, are heavily favored winning nearly 80 percent of simulations at Seattle. Even though the Saints are seeded fifth, their advantage over the Seahawks puts them in the second favored position in the NFC.

Below is a review of AccuScore’s forecast as compared to the current betting lines. There is a somewhat surprising lack of difference between the two. The odds (+Yes / -No) have been translated into an Odds % which is the chance that the Vegas oddsmakers give each team to win. The total Odds% is 111% because Vegas sportsbooks charge the vig to make a profit off betting. If you remove the vig then you get the Odds% (no vig).

When comparing AccuScore to Odds% (no vig) you see the Difference (Diff). There are minimal differences indicating AccuScore does not have any really strong value betting recommendation in these playoffs. The Bears have the highest value based on a +1.1 percentage point difference, but at 9.1 percent overall they are still a long-shot. Laying money on the Seahawks is like playing the lottery.

By Stephen Oh
AccuScore.com

AFC
The Chiefs had quarterback Matt Cassel back and got a dominating rushing performance this past week to put them in a great position to take the AFC West.  The Chargers are heavy favorites in both of their remaining games, and have over a 55 percent chance of closing with two wins, but they do not control their own destiny.  With the Ravens and Jets both winning the chances of an AFC West team getting a Wild Card spot is unlikely.  San Diego and Oakland both won on Sunday, but their playoff chances still dropped considerably because of the Chiefs’ win.

By beating Pittsburgh on the road, the Jets got a huge win both in terms of building confidence and securing a playoff spot.  With a likely first round match-up against the inexperienced Chiefs, the Jets are probably better off in the sixth spot than the Ravens at five who will likely have to go to Indianapolis.   The Steelers may have lost to the Jets, but they locked up a playoff spot and are still likely to win the AFC North by having a better division record than the Ravens.

The Colts regained control over the AFC South and are the 63.6 percent favorite to win the division.  The Jaguars saw their chances drop over 20 percentage points by losing in Indianapolis.  There is only a 35 percent chance that the Jags win out, and even if they do they cannot pass the Colts who have the tiebreaker.

NFC
The Bears hammered the Vikings to win the NFC North, and the Packers saw their playoff chances plummet as a result.  If Aaron Rodgers is healthy the Packers are a 58 percent favorite to beat the Giants in Week 16 so they still have a chance if they can beat Chicago in Week 17.  The Saints and Giants may have both lost in Week 15, but they are still clear-cut favorites for the Wild Card spots.

The three team race for the NFC West is still alive.  Amazingly the 49ers control their own destiny and there is a 28 percent chance that they win out and take the division.  The Rams are actually winning less than 50 percent of Week 16 and Week 17 simulations, but they are still ultimately winning the division 43 percent of the time which is more than the 49ers and Seahawks.

AFC

The Jaguars big victory over Tennessee would have boosted their playoff chances considerably by itself;  when the Colts lost at home to the Cowboys it vaulted the Jaguars’ playoff chances up +30 percent.   Jacksonville is now the favorite to represent the AFC South with a 48 percent chance of winning the division.  The Colts are still not far behind at 39 percent, but a Week 14 win at Tennessee is a must.  Only one AFC South team will make the playoffs as the four teams are projected to combine for just a 1.6 percent chance of earning a Wild Card spot.

Kansas City got a close win against Denver which improved its playoff chances slightly alone, but the Chargers loss at home to the Raiders boosted the Chiefs’ chances over 18 percentage points.  The Chargers’ chances plummeted over 31 percentage points.  The Raiders are now averaging 8 wins per season simulation which is solid improvement this season, but they are still forecasted third in the division with just an 18 percent chance of making the playoffs. 

Pittsburgh got a huge win over Baltimore and is now virtually a lock to make the playoffs at over a 99 percent chance.  The Steelers’ chances of winning the AFC North jumped from 46 to 79 percent.  Baltimore may have seen its division chances drop from 54 to 21 percent, but the overall playoff chances only dipped 5 percentage points thanks to losses by the Colts and Chargers.  Cincinnati has been eliminated from playoff contention with a 0 percent chance, but Cleveland is barely hanging on with an 0.3 percent chance of earning a Wild Card spot.

New England only improved their playoff chances by 2.2 percent and the Jets only dipped -0.1 percent, but the significance of the Patriots’ dominating win should not be underestimated.  The Patriots are now the heavy 84 percent favorite to win the division, and their chances of advancing the Super Bowl are up considerably now that they are in position for the top overall playoff seed.  They have beaten both the Ravens and the Jets at home while beating up the Steelers on the road.

NFC

Seattle got a win over Carolina, and with San Francisco losing the Seahawks are up +8 percentage points this week.  St. Louis however, is still the favorite to win the NFC West at 62.5 percent.   This division will likely come down to who wins the Rams versus Seahawks Week 17 game.  Even though the game is in Seattle the Rams are even with the Seahawks in current simulations.  San Francisco is down to just 3.7 percent and the Cardinals are officially eliminated after making the playoffs in none of the simulations.

The New Orleans offense is clicking and the Saints up +7.6 percentage points after a road win in Cincinnati.  The Falcons only saw a +2.1 percentage point increase, but that is because they are already so close to having a 100 percent chance.  Tampa Bay played well, but after the home loss to Atlanta their playoff chances are down over -13 percent to just a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Eagles won again and saw their playoff chances improve +5.7 percentage points.  The Giants also won and while their loss crushed the Redskins’ playoff chances, the Giants’ chances actually dropped this week.  This is because two of their remaining opponents, Green Bay and Minnesota, are projected better in simulations than they were last week.  The Giants need to become Cowboys fans because Dallas plays the Eagles twice.  Currently the Eagles are 67 and 83 percent favorites against the Cowboys which is why they have the best chance of winning the division at nearly 74 percent.

Green Bay still trails Chicago in the division, but Chicago’s difficult remaining schedule (vs. NE, @ Min, vs. NYJ, @ GB) could result in the Bears winning only one more game.  The Packers have an easier schedule with games against the Lions, and are at home versus their tougher opponents like the Bears and Giants.  The Packers are favored in three of their final four games which is why they are winning the NFC North in a majority (56 percent) of simulations. 

AFC
There was minimal movement in the AFC this week. Kansas City was the big gainer improving +8 percentage points with its road win, but was followed closely by San Diego which got a huge road win over the Colts. The Chargers are playing excellent football and are forecasted to overtake Kansas City with a 72 percent chance of taking the AFC West again. The Raiders were the big loser this week with their home loss and wins by the Chiefs and Chargers.

Indianapolis was the second biggest loser this week dropping -4 percentage points, but it still leads the AFC South in playoff probability at 54.9 percent. Jacksonville and Tennessee both lost which helped the Colts maintain their lead in the division. Jacksonville is expected to drop back due to a tough upcoming schedule. The Texans did improve +3.3 percent, but they still have just a 6.3 percent chance of getting a playoff spot (only 0.1 percent chance of a Wild Card spot).

Baltimore is up to a 93 percent chance of making the playoffs heading into a showdown with Pittsburgh. The Ravens have home field advantage, and are 54.5 percent favorites to beat the Steelers. The winner of this matchup will clearly vault to the lead in the division winner race, but the loser should be in the playoffs. The Browns do not have any shot at the playoffs, but they can play major spoiler with Week 16 games against Baltimore and Week 17 against Pittsburgh.

The Jets and Patriots clash this week and like Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the winner of this AFC East matchup will vault to over a 75 percent chance of taking the division. The loser though should still be in excellent playoff position. Miami has less than a one percent chance of winning the division but its Wild Card chances are still relevant. Like Cleveland in the AFC north, the Bills have the talent to play spoiler in Week 16 and 17 versus the Jets and Patriots.

NFC
In a division where the winner may only finish with seven wins, a one game swing has huge ramifications. In the case of the NFC West a road win by the Rams combined with a home loss by the Seahawks flipped these teams’ fortunes with the Rams doubling their playoff chances to 61 percent while the Seahawks’ chances were cut by more than half (-30.7 percent). The 49ers are playing better, but still may be running out of time with only an 11 percent chance. No NFC West team is making the playoffs as a Wild Card in simulations.

The Bears also jumped up this week (+25 percent) with an impressive win versus the Eagles combined with a tough loss for the Packers who dropped -14 percent. The Bears are still just sixth in the NFC in playoff position because of their tough remaining schedule with games against the Patriots, Jets and on the road at Green Bay. The Packers are one game back of the Bears, but having home field advantage against Chicago in Week 17 gives them a 70 percent chance of winning what could be the deciding game in the division. Minnesota is not mathematically eliminated, but has less than a one percent chance.

The NFC East saw the Giants get back on the winning track and improve nearly 10 percentage points while the Eagles dropped nearly 13 percentage points. The Eagles are still favored to win the division at 62.6 percent. Any chance that Dallas had of making a miraculous comeback were eliminated on Thanksgiving with their loss to the Saints and Washington is barely hanging on at just a 1.5 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Atlanta has the best record in the league and the highest playoff probability in the NFC at 97 percent. The Saints are looking good with over an 84 percent chance, and Tampa Bay is still hanging on at 43.7 percent. The Bucs’ loss to Baltimore combined with the Giants win dropped Tampa Bay out of the sixth projected playoff spot. Tampa’s playoff chances hinge on the Week 13 game against Atlanta in which the Falcons are 57 percent favorites in simulations.

AFC

The Baltimore Ravens struggled to beat the Bills but still saw a solid +7.6 percent improvement in playoff probability. The Ravens benefited by losses by the Bengals and Chargers – two Wild Card competitors. The Steelers lead the entire NFL in playoff probability at nearly 89 percent, and despite their loss at home to Baltimore the Steelers still have the edge in the AFC North 57 to 43 percent. The Bengals only have a 2 percent chance of making the playoffs after another disheartening loss. The Browns have to be pleased with their solid play in recent weeks, but they still have no shot at the playoffs.

The big loser in the AFC was the Miami Dolphins. They not only got the very short end of the stick at home vs Pittsburgh, but with none of the teams ahead of them in playoff probability losing, it resulted in a nearly 20 percentage point drop. The Patriots and Jets are in a very tight battle for the division with the Jets getting the slightest advantage by virtue of beating New England back in Week 2. The Bills should have beaten Baltimore but the moral victory is small consolation and their 0 percent playoff probability does not help much either.

The Tennessee Titans not only got a quality win over the Eagles, they saw their playoff chances improve +12 points and they are quickly closing the gap on the Colts. The Colts were idle but lost 5.1 playoff percentage points partly due to the wins by other AFC playoff contenders and partly due to the injuries they have suffered. The Houston Texans are 4-2, but they have struggled the past few weeks and AccuScore is expecting the Texans to head straight for another 8-8 season once they have to go back on the road.

The Kansas City Chiefs impressively beat Jacksonville while the Chargers once again fumbled their way to a deficit that they could not quite come back from. The Chiefs are now solid 63 percent favorites in the AFC West. The Chargers playoff chances have dropped double digits for a second straight week and now they are a long shot to make the playoffs despite being #1 in the league in passing and Top 3 in both pas and rush defense. The Oakland Raiders demolished Denver but they cannot expect an aberrant performance like this again. The Raiders and Broncos both have under a 5 percent chance of making the playoffs.

NFC

The Dallas Cowboys’ playoff chances plummeted from 31 to virtually 2 percent. Ten percentage points was due to another loss (to the Giants) and the other 20 is due to the possible season ending injury to Tony Romo. The Giants are well-positioned to take the division with a dynamic offense and quality defense. The Giants have a 64 percent chance of winning the NFC East. The Eagles are still sitting in a good position for a Wild Card at a 56 percent chance of making the playoffs. Washington has played well enough to see their playoff chances improve to nearly 29 percent this week.

The Minnesota Vikings saw their playoff chances drop double digits after losing to Green Bay. Brett Favre could miss several games due to injury and even though he has not played well this year AccuScore simulations indicate that the Vikings are +8 percentage points better, on average, with Favre than with Tarvaris Jackson. Green Bay saw a huge +16 percentage point improvement after beating the Vikings and getting another horrible loss by the Bears. Chicago dropped nearly 10 percentage points after losing at home thanks to poor decisions by the Coaching staff and QB Jay Cutler.

Atlanta is second to the NY Giants in playoff probability in the NFC after beating the Bengals. The Falcons’ playoff chances improved more than expected because the Saints suffered a horrible home loss. The Saints dropped 12.5 points, but even with all their struggles have the third highest playoff percentage in the NFC. The Saints are benefiting from the mediocrity in the NFC. Tampa Bay is second in the division but AccuScore is not yet a believer in the Bucs. They improved +10 points but they still only have a 23 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Seattle Seahawks may run away with the NFC West title by merely going 8-8 or 9-7 which could give them a 2 to 3 game lead at the end of the season. The Seahawks improved +13 percentage points by beating a division rival at home. It also helped that the rest of the division all lost again. The Rams lost to Tampa Bay but only saw a modest –3.6 point drop because even with the loss they still played very well for most of the game defensively which bodes well for the rest of the season. The 49ers have no business having as high a playoff probability as they have (12.9 percent) being 1-6, but in this division and conference you are apparently never really out of playoff contention.

AFC
The Tennessee Titans were seven point underdogs against Dallas. By winning a game they were supposed to lose helped them lead the AFC in playoff probability improvement at +20.7 percent. The Titans were helped by the Texans who not only lost at home, but played so poorly they hurt their projected performance in Week 6 to 17 simulations. The gains Houston made last week were completely reversed in Week 5. The Colts and Jaguars both showed slight improvements after wins in which they were favored. Indianapolis is still the favorite to win its division at just over 50 percent.

The Baltimore Ravens are tied for the best record in the conference and have beaten the other 4-1 AFC team, the New York Jets. The Ravens solidly beat the Broncos at home, a game Baltimore was supposed to win. Baltimore was helped out by Cincinnati which has lost two games in a row in which it was the clear cut favorite. The Bengals’ -10.7 percentage point drop is virtually identical to the Ravens +10.5 percent. The Ravens and idle Steelers are in a virtual tie for the division.

Readers can save 10% off any subscription by clicking here and using Coupon Code “NFL”

The New England Patriots were on a bye week, but still managed to drop -12.6 percentage points. This is due to a combination of factors including the win by the Jets and the trade of Randy Moss. The Patriots’ chances of winning the AFC East dropped around 8 percentage points after the Moss trade. The Miami Dolphins actually picked up +9.8 points by being idle this week. Like the Jets, the Dolphins benefited from the Moss trade and the losses by other wild card competitors like Cincinnati, San Diego, Houston, and Denver.

The San Diego Chargers have dominated in many key offensive and defensive statistics and have outscored their opponents by 34 points. Despite that large point differential they are just 2-3. AccuScore expects that even if San Diego’s special teams continues to be a weakness teams won’t be scoring 7-10 points against them a game. The Chargers also can’t possibly continue turning the ball over in the red zone at this high a rate. As undisciplined as the Chargers have played they are still the clear-cut favorite at 59 percent to take the division like they have been in previous seasons. The Chiefs are looking like a legitimate playoff contender, but despite their 3-1 record they only have a 46.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. Their chances actually improved slightly after a loss to the Colts because they played well in the loss which boosted their performance in future game simulations.

NFC
The Eagles, Giants, and Redskins all got impressive wins and collectively benefitted from another bad Cowboys loss. Dallas dropped -16.7 percentage points, but still has a decent 33 percent chance of ultimately winning the division. The Redskins should be commended for their three impressive wins over playoff teams but AccuScore expects them to ultimately fall back in the NFC East with just a 7.5 percent chance of winning the division.

Tampa Bay jumped over 28 percentage points in playoff probability after a shocking comeback in Cincinnati to move its record to 3-1. It goes without saying that a win for the Bucs in Week 6 against the Saints would do wonders for their division chances which are still only 8.6 percent, well behind Atlanta and New Orleans. The Saints are clearly struggling, and dropped -16.6 percentage points this week. Statistically, they have performed like an average offensive team and below average defensive team in 2010. Despite their current struggles, the Saints still have the second highest playoff probability in the NFC. Atlanta has the highest probability after starting 4-1, and most importantly winning at New Orleans.

Readers can save 10% off any subscription by clicking here and using Coupon Code “NFL”

The Vikings lost to the Jets Monday night, but still improved 10.2 percentage points. That is what happens when rival Green Bay also loses the same week along with a number of key players to injury. Minnesota also got a +8 percentage point bump simply by trading for Randy Moss who is not only expected to score his fair share of touchdowns, but also improve the play of Percy Harvin. Minnesota is only 1-3, but is technically second in the NFC North. The Vikings’ performance against the Packers and Bears will ultimately determine their playoff success. The Packers were the big losers in the division dropping nearly 24 percent after a loss in which they were favored. The loss combined with the injuries severely undercut their chances in Week 6 and possibly Week 7. Chicago beat Carolina and improved +13.4 percentage points thanks to the win and Green Bay’s loss and murky near future.

The Rams were the big winner last week because their defense looked poised to go from being one of the worst in the league to average or better. That notion may be out the window after getting blown out by Detroit. St. Louis’ future offensive performance was also hurt by the injury to leading receiver Mark Clayton. The Rams dropped -20 percentage points this week. The Arizona Cardinals may finish the season in the bottom third of the league offensively and defensively based on yardage or points allowed and still win the division. They are the leader at 3-2, and have a 31.8 percent chance of taking the NFC West. San Francisco lost again, but actually managed to pick up a few percentage points thanks to the bad loss by St. Louis. Believe it or not, the 49ers appear to still be in contention for the division at 20.3 percent.

AFC

After a 2-0 start, the Kansas City Chiefs were only given a 17.6 percent chance of making the playoffs but after a 3^rd win they are up +32 percentage points. While the win itself helped, the main reason why their improvement was so marked was the quality of the play offensively and defensively. This ‘helps’ the Chiefs play better in future game simulations. The Chiefs also benefited from losses by the rest of the division – San Diego, Denver and Oakland. The slow-starting Chargers are still favored to ultimately take the division at 63.1 percent, but the Chiefs have to be given proper respect.

In the AFC North, the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers all won and all saw improvement in their playoff chances after Week 3 wins. The Steelers have been the most impressive team in the division and are favored to win the division at 58.3 percent. Baltimore lost to Cincinnati but they are projected to finish ahead of the Bengals in the division. Cincinnati has the tougher schedule as last year’s division winner and Carson Palmer has just not performed well at all. Cleveland puts up a solid effort each week but with no wins they are already eliminated from playoff contention in simulations.

The New York Jets defense was not very good without Darrelle Revis in Week 3, but they still had a huge win as the offense lifted the team. The Jets are now leading the AFC East. The Patriots beat Buffalo, but their defense has to be a major concern after allowing 30 points to Buffalo. The Dolphins took the biggest hit dropping nearly 19 percentage points. They had the double whammy of losing at home and losing to a division opponent.

The AFC South has quickly reverted back to the typical scenario that one has come to expect. Indianapolis looks like the class of the division despite a lack of a running game and running defense. Tennessee and Houston are talented enough to win any game they play, but ultimately they still lay too many eggs every few weeks to take control of the division. The Texans dropped over 30 percentage points for 3 reasons: 1) they lost, 2) the Titans and Colts both won, and 3) they played poorly offensively and defensively. Poor performance often hurts more than the actual loss because it reduces winning percentages in all future games.

NFC

Michael Vick was AccuScore’s pick to start for the Eagles before Kevin Kolb was benched and Vick has more than lived up to our high expectations. He obviously has good chemistry with his big play WRs and he has not lost a step scrambling with the ball. With no real reason to doubt that Vick can maintain his high level of play the Eagles are up +27 percent this week and are the projected NFC East leader with a 50.1 percent chance of taking the division. The Cowboys helped their cause by beating Houston, but they are still 1-2 and as big as the win over the Texans was psychologically, a win over a non-conference opponent just does not help as much as losses within the division or conference can hurt. The Giants keep making a ridiculous number of mental and physical errors. Their playoff chances have dropped nearly 24 percent. Washington was taken out quite easily by St. Louis and their chances are now under 5 percent.

The Seahawks’ upset victory over San Diego helped them improve around 12 percentage points, but the rest of the +27 point improvement comes from the San Francisco disastrous start and their willingness to rely on their more dynamic play-makers like Justin Forsett and Leon Washington over aging veterans like Julius Jones. The San Francisco 49ers plummeted over 30 percentage points. An 0-3 start combined with a surprisingly poor defensive effort in Week 3 all lead to a worst case scenario for San Francisco. Arizona technically won in Week 3 but without Kurt Warner this team is a long shot at making the playoffs even though they are in a very weak division.

No single goat will likely have a bigger impact on a divisional race than Garrett Hartley. His missed OT Field Goal delivered a seismic shift in the NFC South with the Saints going from an 85 percent favorite to win the division do a 56 percent favorite. The Falcons are now in a great position to obviously make the playoffs at nearly 74 percent which is 3^rd highest in the NFC. The Saints still have an exceedingly high 86 percent chance to make the playoffs because their schedule has plenty of easy games on it and there is a lack of competition in the NFC for Wild Card spots due to the weakness of the NFC West.

The Vikings won in week 3 but they still saw their playoff chances drop nearly 18 percent because beating Detroit at home was expected. Chicago beating Green Bay was not expected and with the Bears’ emergence and +17.6 percentage point improvement their rise is the Vikings’ loss. Just as important as the Bears’ emergence is the continued lackluster play of the Vikings passing game. With every passing week the simulations rely more on 2010 Season data and less on 2009 data. Green Bay lost at Chicago but except for penalties and their late fumble, they still looked like the team to beat with a dynamic offense and defense.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota and Texas have not mathematically clinched playoff spots, but in 10,000 AccuScore simulations there were none where the Twins did not win the AL Central and the Rangers did not win the AL West. The only playoff “race” that is up in the air is Yankees vs. Rays AL East winner. The Yankees are up 0.5 games and in simulations they are finishing one game up on the Rays because in their upcoming four-game series the Yankees have home-field advantage.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Last week Colorado was coming off a huge winning streak, but AccuScore forecasted a statistical correction for Colorado and a 10-9 finish. The Rockies ended up going 3-3 this week and as a result their playoff chances dipped -2.5 percentage points. They did not lose ground in the NL West because San Francisco was just 3-3 and dipped -2.2 points and San Diego was just 3-4 and dropped -15.3 points. The only NL West team that will likely make the playoffs is the division winner. All three teams play series against each other. If one team resoundingly beats the other two, then it is unlikely that these two would get a wild card. If all three beat each other “equally” then again, none would be in a great position to catch Atlanta in the wild card race.

All NL West teams lost ground to Atlanta (4-2 this week) and Philadelphia (a perfect 6-0). The Phillies jumped +10.1 percentage points and are now the heavy favorite to win the NL East at 83.6 percent and a virtual lock at making another playoff run. Atlanta may not win the NL East but the Braves actually jumped +11.8 points (more than Philadelphia) because of their two-game lead in the wild card race. Atlanta is benefiting from the round-robin NL West with San Francisco, Colorado, and San Diego all hurting each other.

AFC

The biggest shake-up in the AFC came from the AFC South. Houston not only impressed everyone by beating the Colts, but showed their running game and defense are rapidly catching up with their passing game in terms of league ranking. They jumped 31 percentage points. The Titans were also impressive but their win over Oakland does not have the same impact as beating the projected division leader. The Colts are still expected to ultimately win this division with a 42 percent chance, but the Colts still were amongst the biggest drops (-17.5 percent) this week. The Jaguars won, but only saw a slight +3.7 percentage point increase.

The loud Jets suffered a bad loss, not only because it was to a playoff competitor at home, but they also showed no improvement offensively. If anything, they declined without Thomas Jones. A -35 percentage point drop may seem impossibly large, but with division rivals, Patriots and Dolphins winning, and Wildcard competitors, Texans, Titans, Ravens, and Steelers, all winning it all took its toll on the Jets. The Dolphins jumped nearly 25 percentage points thanks to their win and the Jets’ loss. The Patriots also had a nice jump up +16 percentage points thanks to their impressive offensive display.

The Baltimore Ravens got a big win that improved their playoff chances +6.7 percentage points. They did not improve as much as you might expect because Pittsburgh also won a close game and improved +5.8 points. With both the Ravens and Steelers winning, the Bengals saw their chances plummet -38 points. Like the Jets, the Bengals not only suffered due to a loss, but also due to the wins by division rivals and the emergence of the AFC South Wildcard competitors. Cincinnati also has one of the toughest schedules in the league.

The Chargers have started slowly yet again, but AccuScore still strongly favors them to ultimately win. They saw their playoff chances drop -7.7 points, but they are still the 77 percent favorite to win the division. Kansas City improved +6.7 points, and while their explosive young players Jamaal Charles, Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas were able to deliver big plays, the offense was overall very weak and could not score a point in the second half. The Raiders stumbled out of the gate and saw their chances already dip nearly -14 points as there are too many strong Wildcard competitors in the AFC. Denver dropped -4.2 points for the same reasons.

NFC

The Seattle Seahawks got a huge win over San Francisco and saw their playoff chances jump over 25 percentage points. Their defense was one of the worst last year and at least for a week they look much improved. The Cardinals also got a win over St. Louis and while the offense may average 7 to 10 points less without Kurt Warner, their underrated defense can still keep them in competition for the division. The main reason why Seattle and Arizona saw big jumps in playoff probability was the weak performance of San Francisco. Their offense was a total flop and with trouble brewing early in SF their playoff chances were cut in half.

The Dallas Cowboys loss in Washington cost the Cowboys dearly with a -17.6 percentage point drop. While road losses usually are not that costly, when they happen within the division they always take their toll. Surprisingly, the Redskins did not see an improvement after their win. They won the game, but were not particularly impressive offensively and their ability to put up points this year even with Donovan McNabb is questionable. The big winner in the division was the NY Giants who got the win over Carolina and benefited from the Eagles and Cowboys’ losses.

The New Orleans Saints offense may not have exploded in Week 1 but by beating the Vikings and having primary division rival, Atlanta, losing to Pittsburgh, the Saints saw their playoff chances improve +5.5 points. The Falcons offense was ineffective vs the Steelers and while things will improve when they face lesser defenses, they still do not look significantly improved vs last year. Atlanta’s loss cost them -9 percentage points. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers improved +6.5 points with their win over Cleveland and, more importantly, the struggles of Carolina. Carolina hoped their turnover problems left with Jake Delhomme but with Matt Moore looking awful in Week 1 and only rookie Jimmy Clausen waiting in the wings, turnovers by the QB could do this team in again.

Green Bay and Minnesota will compete for the NFC North all season long and head-to-head match-ups will likely determine the outcome. The Packers are currently 55 percent favorites at home vs Minnesota in Week 7 but Minnesota is 66 percent favorites at home vs Green Bay in Week 11 as Sidney Rice should be back by then. With the slight overall edge going to Minnesota they are still the 50 percent favorite to win the division vs 43 percent for Green Bay. Chicago and Detroit are not expected to make a serious playoff run with just a 6.8 percent combined chance of winning the division.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AccuScore does not see a lot of drama going down the stretch in the American League, at least in terms of who makes the playoffs. The Rays, Yankees, Rangers, and Twins all have at least a 95 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Red Sox were 3-3 this week but after losing two of three in Tampa Bay, their chances dropped in half from 12.6 to 6.4 percent.

The White Sox are a long shot to catch the Twins. While they are just 4.5 games behind, the Twins have the advantage of playing 19 home games vs just 12 on the road. Even if the White Sox get Manny Ramirez he only helps improve their chances of catching Minnesota by around 1 percentage point.

In terms of who wins the AL East, AccuScore is still favoring the Yankees at 57.8 percent over the Tampa Bay Rays at 41.3 percent. The Yankees have a tough schedule but they do have the advantage of playing more of their remaining games at home than on the road.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Unlike the AL, only two NL teams have a better than 95 percent chance of making the playoffs. The San Diego Padres are at 95.8 percent despite only having a 2-4 week including dropping 4 in a row and getting swept at home by the Phillies). They still hold a 5 game lead in the division and have the best record in the NL.

The Phillies sweeping the Padres did not have as big an impact as you would expect with Philly only seeing a +1.5 percent increase in playoff probability. The Phillies started by dropping 4 in a row at home vs the Astros which pretty much off-set any positives. By losing 4 at home to the Astros, the Phillies helped Atlanta improve their chances by 0.7 percent despite going just 2-4.

The big loser this week was the St. Louis Cardinals who are now 5 games behind the Reds with just a 15.8 percent chance of winning the division. The Cardinals saw their playoff chances cut in half from 55.5 to just 28 percent after going 2-5. The San Francisco Giants could not capitalize on the Cardinals and Phillies sub-.500 weeks because they were just 3-3 and lost 2 of 3 at home to the Diamondbacks.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

A week after jumping more than 20 percentage points, the Chicago White Sox’s playoff chances suffered a severe market correction with a 34 percentage point decline in playoff probability. While a 2-5 week is always going to hurt, this week was especially bad because the White Sox were at home for six games and lost two of three to the Twins. The Twins were 5-1 and saw their playoff chances jump 20 percentage points. The Twins have a better than 88 percent chance of winning the division because they hold a three-game lead and they have six more home games than road games the rest of the season.

The Yankees were just 3-4 and their playoff chances dipped below 90 percent. The Rays were 4-2 and picked up seven percentage points as they are just one game behind. Even though they hold just a one-game lead in the AL East, AccuScore forecasts the Yankees to finish three games up. The Red Sox had a solid bounce-back week but are still a long shot to make the playoffs at just 23 percent.

The Rangers have run away with the AL West holding an 8.5 game lead. The Rangers could very well be the only team over .500 in the division by the end of the season.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The San Francisco Giants may have done all the talking before their three-game series with San Diego, but the Padres clearly won that series taking two of three. The Padres went 5-1, beat their main competitor for the division, and the Dodgers and Rockies continued to play mediocre baseball. As a result the Padres led the NL with an 18.5 percentage point increase in playoff probability and everyone’s pre-season pick for last place in the division now have an 84 percent chance of winning the division.
The Braves were a solid 4-2 and hold an 86.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. The loss of Chipper Jones had no negative impact on the team’s playoff chances. The Phillies were also 4-2, but saw their playoff chances slightly dip. The Phillies chances will improve if Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return a week or two sooner than originally expected.

In the Central, the Cardinals are one game back of Cincinnati and the Reds swept the Marlins, but the Cardinals still saw their playoff chances improve from 52 percent to 66 percent. Cincinnati went 3-3, but saw their playoff chances drop 15 points all because the three losses were at home to the Cardinals. The Reds also still have six more road games than home games the rest of the season. On average, AccuScore simulations have St. Louis finishing one game ahead of Cincinnati.

Another sparking acrobatic play Tuesday night turned out horribly wrong for Chipper Jones. Even though he recorded the out in a scoreless tie, Jones suffered a torn ACL that will knock him out for the rest of the season. After bringing up retirement earlier this year you have to wonder whether or not this is the end of his career.

Before the injury, Jones had been on a tear with a triple slash line of .400/.471/.833 in the month of August with 3 home runs. As of Wednesday night Atlanta held a 2.5 game lead over the Phillies and was projected to maintain that lead according to AccuScore projections.

While losing a veteran leader like Jones is a blow, Atlanta has the depth to absorb the loss on the field. Brooks Conrad will most likely fill in at third base for now while Omar Infante could slide in at the corner when Martin Prado returns from the DL. Conrad has hit for some pop with a .808 OPS in 101 at-bats while Infante made the All-Star team and is currently hitting .330. Because of this the forecast for the NL East remains virtually unchanged even without Jones in projections with the Phillies only 0.4% more likely to win the division.

This projection could of course change if the Braves were to suffer another injury, Infante and Conrad do not perform in expanded roles, or if Prado doesn’t return as expected. But the Phillies are also dealing with their own injury issues with a tenuous situation at first with Ryan Howard out and Ross Gload possibly headed to the disabled list himself.

How much is Darrelle Revis worth to the Jets?  To find out, AccuScore simulated New York’s season 10,000 times with and without the star cornerback suiting up for Gang Green.

Obviously losing one of the best defensive players in the NFL would negatively impact any team. For a team like the Jets that considers itself a Super Bowl contender, his loss is huge. Without Revis they 0.7 fewer games, allow 1.3 more points per game, and are nearly 14% less likely to reach the playoffs.

Losing Revis negatively impacts New York, and in turn positively impacts the rest of the AFC East. The Patriots odds of winning the division rise 6.1% while the gap between New York and Miami in the playoff race closes considerably.

Looking at the game by game schedule, Revis makes the biggest difference against Baltimore, Green Bay, at New England, at Pittsburgh, and at Chicago. His absence also makes the Jets under 50% to win the first two games meaning a potential 2-0 start could flip to 0-2. 

If the Jets were to win every game it is favored in by AccuScore with Revis their record would be a sparkling 11-4-1. Taking that same tact without Revis leaves them just 8-8 and out of the postseason. Needless to say, the Jets need to get their star player in camp and on the field.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

After dropping 2 of 3 to the Yankees the Red Sox find themselves with just a 14.7 percent chance of making the playoffs. New York, meanwhile, went back over the 90 percent mark in playoff probability with a nearly 75 percent chance of winning the AL East. The Rays have been strong all year on the road this season, but they dropped 5 in a row costing them 13 percent. The Rays are in a battle with the Twins and White Sox for the Wild Card. Currently less than 0.6 wins per simulation separates the 3 teams in projected win total.

The Twins are AccuScore's slight favorite to win the AL Central at 56.7 percent vs 43.3 percent for Chicago, but the White Sox had a great week. The White Sox were 4-2 (all road games) and by sweeping the Tigers in Detroit they basically eliminated them from the playoff picture. With Tampa Bay and Boston both having bad weeks, the White Sox vaulted near 22 percentage points in the playoff race.

The AL West has been largely settled for a month now. Even though they were just 3-3 the Rangers still hold a 97.6 percent chance to win the division and make the playoffs. The A's were the only AL West team with a winning record this past week (4-2) but they only have a 1.7 percent chance of catching Texas who is projected to win the division by a full 10 games.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The Phillies had a tremendous 5-1 week and have now improved their playoff chances by over 30 percentage points over the past 2 weeks. They have closed the gap from 67 to 33 percent to win the division vs Atlanta down to 56 to 43 percent. The Phillies also have the advantage of playing 7 more home games than road games the rest of the season.

The Reds also had a great 5-1 week with a +20 percentage point improvement. They currently hold a 2 game lead over the Cardinals. AccuScore still sees the Cardinals as the favored team to win the division but the difference is minimal with the Cardinals at 52.6 percent and Cincinnati at 47.4 percent.

The only team to drop more than St. Louis (-11.5 percentage points) this past week were the 2-4 Giants who were rolling before struggling on this road trip. The Giants dropped to just a 27 percent chance of winning the division, down from nearly 38 percent the prior week. The Dodgers and Rockies also saw their playoff chances drop this week while the Padres were up slightly, despite going just 3-4. The Padres benefited from the Giants bad week and the whole division suffered because the Phillies and Reds are the front-runners for the Wild Card if they do not win their respective divisions.