NBA Trade Deadline Review

  • Thursday, February 24, 2011 11:20 AM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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What began as the conclusion to the endless Carmelo Anthony rumors and the surprising Deron Williams trade quickly escalated into a full-blown NBA swap meet. The 2010-11 season clearly has shifted the landscape in professional basketball, and brought about perhaps the busiest trade deadline ever.

Boston and Oklahoma City pulled off the most shocking move of the day. The Thunder acquired Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson for Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic. OKC also got Nazr Mohammed from the Bobcats in a separate trade for D.J. White and Mo Peterson. The Celtics weren’t done with this move either. They sent away Luke Harangody and Semih Erden to Cleveland for draft picks, presumably to open up roster space for buyout candidates. Marquis Daniels was also traded to Sacramento for cash considerations.

The rumored trade involving Gerald Wallace from Wednesday came to fruition on deadline day. Wallace joins Portland in exchange for Joel Pryzbilla, Dante Cunningham, and draft picks. Phoenix picked up Aaron Brooks from Houston for Goran Dragic and a 1st round pick. Houston also dealt Shane Battier back to Memphis for Hasheem Thabeet and another 1st round pick. Late Wednesday night also brought about Baron Davis being sent to Cleveland in exchange for Mo Williams.

AccuScore re-simulated the rest of the regular season after the flurry of trades had passed.

BT = before trade deadline
AT = after trade deadline

REST OF SEASON WINS REST OF SEASON WIN% PLAYOFF CHANCES
TEAM W (BT) W (AT) W (+/-) W (BT) W (AT) W (+/-) PO (BT) PO (AT) PO (+/-)
Boston Celtics 18.7 17.9 -0.8 69.3% 66.4% -2.9% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0%
Charlotte Bobcats 10.8 10.7 -0.1 43.2% 42.7% -0.5% 25.6% 27.6% 2.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers 4.7 4.7 0.0 19.0% 18.8% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Rockets 10.6 10.6 0.1 46.0% 46.3% 0.3% 11.1% 10.1% -1.0%
LA Clippers 10.4 10.3 -0.1 43.1% 42.9% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis Grizzlies 11.2 12.2 1.0 48.6% 52.9% 4.3% 64.6% 73.4% 8.8%
Phoenix Suns 12.0 12.1 0.1 44.3% 44.7% 0.4% 24.0% 22.6% -1.4%
Portland Trail Blazers 13.7 13.7 0.0 54.7% 54.7% 0.0% 87.5% 86.7% -0.8%
Oklahoma City Thunder 15.7 16.1 0.3 60.5% 61.8% 1.3% 99.7% 99.8% 0.1%

Here are some key findings:

  • Boston obviously still remains a lock for the playoffs, but its per game win percentage dropped -2.9 percent. More importantly, the Celtics’ chances of winning the No. 1 seed fell from 36 to 32 percent. Miami is in firm control of the East.
  • Oklahoma City only improved its per game winning percentage slightly at 1.3 percent, but the full benefit of picking up two centers in Perkins and Mohammed will be more evident in the playoffs agaisnt teams like the Spurs, Lakers and Mavericks. The Thunder have long coveted a defensive center, and now have the size to deal with the Lakers and Spurs in the West.
  • Charlotte is currently in 9th in the East trailing Indiana by 1.5 games. While the Bobcats lost their best player and are projected for fewer wins, they actually gained two percent in playoff probability due to the overall movement at the deadline.
  • Shane Battier is not projected for big numbers with Memphis, but the Grizzlies did improve their playoff chances the most at +8.8 percent. He will serve as a nice replacement to the player he was originally traded for, Rudy Gay. Memphis also unsuccessfully tried to trade O.J. Mayo to Indiana for Josh McRoberts.

Yao Ming Injury Impact

  • Thursday, December 16, 2010 12:11 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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Rockets center Yao Ming had been working towards a comeback, but now it’s been revealed that he has yet another stress fracture in his ankle.  Not only is his outlook for this season compromised but possibly his career.  Sadly for Houston, he was projected to play so little this season his loss barely registers in simulations.

Rockets Wins Playoffs Seed
With Yao 34.6 12.9% 11th
w/o Yao 34.5 12.4% 11th

With or without Yao, Houston looks like it will be on the outside looking in once again come playoff time. The Rockets are projected to finish 11th in the competitive West barring any moves from their always aggressive GM Daryl Morey. Hopefully this isn’t the last we’ve seen of Yao on an NBA basketball court.

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Three-Way Deal Sends Kevin Martin to Rockets, T-Mac to Knicks, Landry to Kings

  • Thursday, February 18, 2010 12:28 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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First, the moving parts:

Houston:  Kevin Martin, Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill, Hilton Armstrong, 2012 protected first-rounder
New York:  Tracy McGrady, Sergio Rodriguez
Sacramento:  Carl Landry, Larry Hughes, Joey Dorsey

The Knicks also previously sent Darko to Minnesota and waived the incoming Brian Cardinal.  J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker are added to the bench in the Nate Robinson deal, which also sent Marcus Landry to Boston.

Houston looks like a big winner here getting Martin and lots of draft considerations while unloading McGrady.  That did not come without a price however having to take on Jeffries’ contract while losing Landry.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

W

L

%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

CONF

Current Record

28

26

51.9%

--

--

--

Before Trade Deadline

42.4

39.6

51.7%

1.2%

26.4%

9TH

After Trade Deadline

42.2

39.8

51.5%

1.0%

26.0%

10TH

Trade Impact

-0.2

0.2

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.4%

-1

Per Game Impact

-0.7%

 

 

 

 

 

The trade hurts the Rockets on paper mostly because of how terrific Landry has been this season.  He should garner serious consideration for Sixth Man of the year.  Martin, though, gives Houston an über-efficient scorer at the two which will also allow Trevor Ariza to shift to a more comfortable 3rd-scorer role.  Martin has not been great this season, but has been slowed by injuries. 

Overall, the trade actually pushes Houston from 9th to 10th in the competitive Western Conference, but 2010 is not the goal.  Next season is the target for Houston when presumably Yao will be back allowing Scola, Ariza, Hayes and the like to play much more defined roles.  A backcourt of Martin and Brooks might be tough to pass defensively, but the presence of Ariza and Shane Battier as a pair of perimeter stoppers helps there.  Jeffries actually can help here as well.  Even though his contract is terrible, he has plenty of value as a defensive role player.

NEW YORK KNICKS

W

L

%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

CONF

Current Record

19

34

35.8%

--

--

--

Before Trade Deadline

31.3

50.7

38.2%

0.0%

1.9%

10TH

After Trade Deadline

29.7

52.3

36.2%

0.0%

0.7%

10TH

Trade Impact

-1.6

1.6

-2.0%

0.0%

-1.2%

--

Per Game Impact

-5.5%

 

 

 

 

 

New York is projected to be -5.5 percent worse per game this season losing 1.6 more games than before all these moves.  That is terrific news for Utah which owns the Knicks’ first-round pick.  As for the Knicks, their dream scenario is now possible: two maximum salary slots available for this summer.  It cost them their 2012 pick, and maybe their 2011 pick as well (Houston has the right to swap picks as long as it isn’t No.1 overall). 

Also, the moves also probably will end up costing David Lee because he will be a free agent and would need to be renounced in order to sign two max guys.  Just over half a season was enough for the team to deem Jordan Hill expendable marking yet another New York mistake.  T-Mac might get a chance to prove himself now on the court, and Rodriguez will get yet another to chance to prove he can play at this level.  New York saved about $1 million extra by sending out Darko.  The guess is that David Kahn just wanted to experience Darko for himself.  There is no other explanation for Minnesota.

The Kings got cap relief, and a great young (and affordable) forward in Landry.  His contract has an option for $3 million next season.  While Sacramento won’t be a destination for Wade, LeBron, Bosh and the like, the oodles of space does make them a player for mid-tier guys and as a facilitator of future trades.  The Kings can now build around a core of Tyreke Evans, Omri Casspi, Landry, and Jason Thompson.  Not bad at all. 

Landry’s productivity actually improves Sacramento’s outlook for this season by +1.2 wins, or 4.3 percent per game, quite the impact for a former second round pick.

SACRMENTO KINGS

W

L

%

WIN DIV

PLAYOFF

CONF

Current Record

18

36

33.3%

--

--

--

Before Trade Deadline

28.8

53.2

35.1%

0.0%

0.0%

13TH

After Trade Deadline

30.0

52.0

36.6%

0.0%

0.0%

12TH

Trade Impact

1.2

-1.2

1.5%

0.0%

0.0%

+1

Per Game Impact

4.3%