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On Tuesday, Champions League kicks off the round of 16 with 2 entertaining clashes. Tottenham Hotspur travel to the San Siro to face off against AC Milan and Schalke 04 travel to Valencia. AccuScore Soccer memberships include all Champions League matches from this point forward, so we thought we would kickoff our Champions League coverage with an AccuScore preview of Tottenham at AC Milan.

AccuScore performs 10,000 simulations based solely on reliable statistical data: individual data and team data.

Tottenham Hotspur at AC Milan

Rafael Van der Vaart is expected to be fit in time for the clash after earlier reports left the Dutchman in severe doubt. Lucky for the Spurs, as AccuScore projected the Dutch midfielder to be the most likely goal scorer for Tottenham, and he scored in 21% of AccuScore’s simulations. Welsh superstar Gareth Bale, however, has been ruled out of the tie, and Luka Modric is not likely to feature. Further, Peter Crouch is limited with back issues, and his involvement is questionable.

Either Roman Pavlyuchenko or Jermaine Defoe are expected to lead the line with Aaron Lennon and Niko Kranjcer providing some attacking width. Steven Pienaar will likely watch from the bench, but the former Everton man will hope to be involved as a substitute for Lennon past the hour mark. Niko Krajcar has been firing for the Spurs with game winning goals in his last 2 appearances, but his involvement in the match is not certain due to Harry Redknapp’s tactics (yes, that was a joke). Seriously, though, Rafael Van der Vaart’s return coupled with Lennon and Pienaar availability shrouds the level of Kranjcer’s involvement in mystery. The Cech international should be involved at some level, and I anticipate he will start at the right midfield position pushing Van der Vaart as the attacking midfielder in a 4-5-1 setup. Then, the question for Tottenham becomes whether to go with the speed of Defoe of the height of Pavlyuchenko to lead the line.

AccuScore’s simulations projected Pavlyuchenko to be a more threatening choice than Defoe, as the tall Russian scored in 18% of simulations compared to the speedy Englishman who scored in 12% of the sims.

AC Milan have their own long list of injuries with Andrea Pirlo, Massimo Ambrosini, Kevin-Prince Boateng, Gianluca Zambrotta, Ignazio Abate, and Nicola Legrottaglie all ruled out. Further, Antonio Cassano, Mark Van Bommel, and Rodney Strasser are ineligible for the Champions League, so AC Milan have a rather skinny squad for Tuesday’s match.

Although the squad may be slimmer than Peter Crouch’s arms, AC Milan will still lineup with enough stars to overshadow their visiting opponents. Clarence Seedorf returned from his recent injury issues to score Milan’s first goal against Parma on the weekend. In the same match, Robinho scored a brace after coming on at the hour mark, so the Brazilian attacker will be involved in some capacity. Whether he will start behind the 2 strikers, start as a striker, or come in as a substitute for Seedorf or Pato remains unclear, but Robinho will be involved.

Pato and Ibrahimovic expect to start, as the former played just over 20 minutes on Saturday after coming on for the latter. Gennaro Gattuso and Matieu Flamini also played the substitution tradeoff game, as Gattuso started against Parma, and Flamini replaced the Italian bulldog after an hour. Both Gattuso and Flamini expect to feature from the start due to injuries and a lack of depth in the midfield.

Both squads have a long list of injuries, but both squads also possess enough class to make both managers scratch their respective heads (or each other’s heads, if you prefer that mental image). Personally, I would opt for Seedorf playing behind Robinho and Ibra, but I suspect Pato and Ibra will play ahead of Seedorf, and Robinho will play the last 30 minutes as a substitute for Seedorf. Assuming all 4 of these players were involved, AccuScore calculated Zlatan Ibrahimovic to be the most likely scorer, as the big Swede scored in 47% of the 10,000 simulations—his chances of scoring are pretty much a coin flip.

Pato was the next most likely scorer with a 33% chance of scoring and Robinho was 3rd most likely to score in the match with a 23% chance of scoring. Clarence Seedorf only scored in 8% of matches, but his role is not one of scoring goals but, rather, creating the chances. Seedorf has 5 assists and only 1 goal in Serie A the season.

Ultimately, AccuScore projected AC Milan as the favorites, as they won 55% of matches and only lost 18%. The teams finished level in 27% of the 10,000 simulations.

Champions League is back!

Check back for tomorrow for a Barcelona v Arsenal preview

Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur
From White Hart Lane
on
Sunday, January 12, 2011

Although the English Premier League offers three major derbies(the Merceyside derby, the Tyne-Wear derby, and the Second City derby), the most exciting fixture in the English Premier League this weekend is Manchester United against Tottenham Hotspur from White Hart Lane. On Sunday, Manchester United play their first Premier League match against a top 4 opponent in over a month, and, yes, David Beckham should be in attendance.

Nearly 5 months into the season, Manchester United remain undefeated in domestic league play despite Wayne Rooney not scoring a goal from open play until United’s 19th league match on new year’s day. After 20 rounds, Manchester United comfortably hold a 2 point lead on 2nd place Manchester City, while having played 2 fewer matches than their cross-city rivals (at Blackpool and at Chelsea were postponed due to weather). After all these years, Sir Alex still continues to amaze with his consistency, and Nani has stepped into the spotlight, as many hoped he would, following Cristiano Ronaldo’s departure to Real Madrid 2 seasons ago.

In 16 domestic appearances this season, Nani has recorded 6 goals and 9 assists. The Portuguese winger has been, arguably, the most consistent and important player throughout United’s first half of the season. More, Nani has repeatedly stepped up to be United’s premier player on occasions when Rooney has been unavailable and Berbatov has simply been sub-par (far more often than his 14 goals lead on). Last weekend, for example, United were the much better side against Stoke City, but Stoke leveled 1-1 on 50 minutes with a Dean Whitehead header. United required a swift response, but Rooney was busy socializing in an Old Trafford luxury box, and Berbatov was busy chasing mosquitoes. Just past the hour mark, Nani met a pass just outside the right side of the box and put in a sublime left footed curler to the bottom left corner. United held on to win 2-1 behind Nani’s spectacular match winner. With that shot, Nani delivered 3 points and took on the role of United’s savior.

The only Red Devil offering more consistency than Nani this season has been center defender Nemanja Vidic. Vidic is the only United player to start all 20 league matches this season. Vidic was the first name on the team sheet, and Vidic has been as omnipresent on the field as Rooney has been off it. If Diego Maradona was sitting in Alex Ferguson’s seat, he would likely say, “Manchester United are Vidic plus 10.” The vertically-gifted Serbian center-half has not only been the best defender on the 2nd best defensive team in this season’s English Premier League (only Manchester City have conceded fewer goals), Vidic has also knocked in 3 goals and recorded 1 assist in his 20 league starts. For those of you keeping count, Vidic has 1 more goal than Wayne Rooney this season. Wazza?

As usual, Tottenham promise to provide a great atmosphere for Sunday’s match and guarantee stars on and off the pitch. No, David Beckham will not be playing, but he will probably be in attendance. As such, the TV cameras will likely show Becks about fifteen more times than any football fan would care for, but that is one of the 3 evils all present-day football fans must accept with modern day technology: snoods, diving, and evidence of horrific officiating being the other three. Once the cameras and announcers get past Becks, they will inevitably realize that Sunday serves up Manchester United’s toughest test of this season through 21 rounds.

To this point, the toughest fixture on Manchester United’s schedule was a trip to Manchester City. However, that match was a dull 0-0 bore-fest because Mancini and City were happy to apply negative tactics and walk away with 1 point against Manchester United. Aside from that match, United have not played away to a top-5 side all season.

Tottenham, unlike City, expect to attack Manchester United, and Spurs are an especially electric side at home. Spurs have only lost 1 match in 11 contests at White Hart Lane this season. They also won all 3 Champions League fixtures at The Lane. Further, Tottenham have a habit of scoring goals and creating exciting contests. Tottenham have scored at least 1 goal in their last 15 matches across all competitions. The last time Tottenham did not score a goal was on 30th October, 2010, against Manchester United at Old Trafford.

The 30th of October meeting between Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United was at a strange point in the season and presented some scary Halloween-inspired events. That 2-0 defeat was the infamous game where Nani clearly handled a ball, Gomes snatched the ball and put it down for a free kick, and Nani walked up and kicked it past the goal keeper; yes, Mark Clattenburg’s Halloween gift to Manchester United. Entering that match, Spurs had just lost 4-3 at the San Siro, but Gareth Bale’s star had risen about 3 quarters up the sky after his 2nd half hat-trick at the San Siro. With an eye on the upcoming mid-week match against Inter at the Lane, Harry Redknapp started Robbie Keane in one of Keane’s 2 starts of the season. Tom Huddlestone was rested despite being healthy at the time, and Jermaine Jenas was tossed into the midfield to manage the game.

Vidic was the only legitimate scorer in the October meeting. Not surprisingly, he headed in a well delivered Nani free-kick. Even at Old Trafford, these two teams put on a lively show that was ultimately ruined by Clattenburg’s embarrassingly bad decision in the 84th minute. The two teams combined for 32 shots but only 12 shots were on goal. Along with refereeing, the finishing on that day was frighteningly bad.

Fortunately, Tottenham quickly put that match and decision behind them, and Gareth Bale proceeded to carve up Inter Milan a few days later. Since the 2nd Inter Milan match, Gareth Bale has become the most desired commodity in Europe. Tottenham’s other star, Rafael Van der Vaart, went on to score 6 goals and pass 5 assists in the 10 appearances he has made for Spurs following the loss at Old Trafford. Although Gareth Bale suffered an injury scare last weekend, he expects to be fully fit after sitting out the FA Cup tie against Charlton. Also, Jermaine Defoe is back from suspension and expects to start.

Tottenham expect to rely on their 2 most highly publicized stars on Sunday: Rafael Van der Vaart and Gareth Bale. If either of these two players succumbs to injury or has an untimely bad game, Tottenham do not possess the caliber of players to replace their 2 most prized assets. The duo of Bale and Van der Vaart have combined for 16 goals and 6 assists this season—they directly create more than a goal a game between the two of them. Despite how simple this two man formula may seem, it works as well as Peter Crouch’s knock down header strategy.

Tottenham are currently in 4th place, 8 points behind Manchester United despite having played 1 more match than the Red Devils. At the moment, Spurs do not truly anticipate catching United despite what the players may say, but qualifying for Champions League is of the highest importance for the North London club. Chelsea are only 1 point behind Spurs for the coveted 4th place spot, so Tottenham know that holding on to fourth place requires home victories against the top 4.

For Manchester United, the motivation for a win at White Hart Lane is simpler. After nearly 5 months of unbeaten EPL football, every match is a step closer to making history. Most experts agree that the Premier League title is Manchester United’s to lose more than it is any other team’s to win. With this mindset and with Sir Alex Ferguson leading the squad, every match United don’t win, regardless of who or where they play, is magnified and scrutinized. If Tottenham manage a victory on Sunday, United may look back at this match as the one that kept this team out of the history books.

AccuScore Simulation Analysis

AccuScore incorporated an intensely detailed level of data analysis to play this match out 1 pass at a time for 90 minutes and repeated the process 10,000 times to arrive at accurate match forecasting data. Originally, AccuScore incorporated an 11 man United lineup that included Dimitar Berbatov and Wayne Rooney and anticipated Javier Hernandez coming in as a 2nd half substitute against a Hotspur lineup that included Van der Vaart and Defoe but anticipated Crouch entering in the 2nd half. With this scenario, AccuScore projected Manchester United winning 46% of simulations, losing 28%, and drawing 26% of the time.

However, most MUFC fans know that Sir Alex has a habit of putting out a 4-5-1 against tough opponents, especially on the road. As such, AccuScore re-performed simulations with an 11-man United squad featuring Rooney as the lone front man and Berbatov being left out against an 11 man Tottenham that started Defoe and Rafa Van der Vaart: excluding substitutes for both teams. In this scenario, AccuScore calculated that Tottenham won 35% of simulations, United won 37% of simulations, and match ended in a draw 28% of the time. So, with Sir Alex playing a 4-5-1 against Tottenham’s 4-5-1, Tottenham’s chances of winning increased compared to United playing a 4-4-2 against Tottenham’s 4-5-1.

In both scenarios, AccuScore projects this to be a close encounter that leans in United’s favor. This statistical favoritism makes sense considering United have not yet lost a league match and beat Tottenham 2-0 earlier this season. However, anyone who witnessed the match at Old Trafford would quickly add that Tottenham could have just as easily walked away with 3 points. This should be a great match, and, AccuScore confirmed our suspicions.

AccuScore also provided individual goal scorer predictions for this match. If Berbatov and Rooney start for Manchester United in a 4-4-2, Dimitar Berbatov was the most likely goal scorer in the match, as the Bulgarian striker scored in 42% of simulations. In the 4-4-2 scenario, Rooney scored in 30% of simulations. When Rooney started as the lone striker in a 4-5-1, the former Everton forward scored in 37% of simulations and became the most likely goal scorer for Manchester United. AccuScore projects Wayne Rooney’s probability of scoring to increase when Berbatov is on the bench, but United’s chances of winning increase when Berbatov is starting alongside Wazza.

In both scenarios, Rafael Van der Vaart was the most likely goal scorer for Totthenham Hotspur. The attacking Dutch midfielder scored in about 1/3 of simulations under both scenarios. Jermaine Defoe was considered the 2nd most likely Tottenham scorer, and Gareth Bale was 3rd most likely Spur to find the target in both scenarios.

AccuScore provides individual and team statistical data and historical trends for all English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, Spanish Primera Liga, and UEFA Champions League matches. Go to AccuScore.com/Soccer for a risk-free 7 day trial.

EPL Expert Pick

Despite Manchester United being favored over 20,000 simulations, AccuScore’s record on projecting value on MUFC winning is only 6-7. Further, the Over 2.5 sounds like a good pick at first, but these teams are a combined 9-8 when AccuScore projects value on the Over. As such, AccuScore does not find much value in picking anything in this match. This match is a sure bet for a football fan but not a gambler.

AccuScore projected Newcastle to win against Sunderland at +277 to have value. Although AccuScore is only 6-10 in situations it calculated value on Newcastle winning, AccuScore is +1697units in those 16 picks (assuming 100 units were placed on each value situation). As such, AccuScore advises picking Newcastle to win at the Stadium of Light at +277.

AccuScore also advises picking Arsenal to win at -169 at West Ham United. Although these odds do not provide high ROI, AccuScore calculated value in picking Arsenal to win. Further, AccuScore is 4-1 when projecting value on Arsenal winning. As such, AccuScore advises picking Arsenal to win at West Ham at -169.

Review AccuScore's Soccer Pick Review to see how the picks have been doing to this point.

Also, click here for the Bundesliga Preview and Expert Pick for this week

Dallas swingman Caron Butler underwent surgery to repair a torn tendon in his right knee and will miss the rest of the season. The Mavs appear to have the depth to cover the loss with more minutes for J.J. Barea, Shawn Marion, DeShawn Stevenson, and perhaps rookie Dominique Jones.

The simulations show that without Butler, Dallas is just 0.4 wins worse for the season. They also show the playoff odds and seeding unaffected for the Mavs. The biggest difference is in the odds for the Southwest division. Dallas loses nearly 12 percentage points which is due to the fact that the Spurs are now more likely to win in head-to-head match-ups and already hold a 4 game lead.

For the next 3 weeks, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United take turns playing each other to decide the top club in England entering 2011. With Round 1 of El Clasico settling the matter of the best team in Spain in favor of Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund dominating Germany and sitting 10 points clear in the Bundesliga, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic driving AC Milan to the top of the Italian Serie A, the next 3 weeks of the EPL provide the top of the table excitement the rest of the top European leagues simply cannot offer at this point in the season. December is the month Premier League fans have been patiently waiting for since the start of the season: Let the games begin!

Chelsea at Tottenham Hotspur
Sunday, December 12, 2010

Chelsea only lead Tottenham by 4 points and face the toughest month of the top 3. Chelsea travel to 5th place Tottenham Hotspur this weekend, host 2nd place Manchester United next weekend, and finish off 2010 with a trip to the Emirates to face a young and dangerous 1st place Arsenal. With Chelsea’s recent dismal form, Chelsea could fall out of the top 5 and parallel the dip of Italian Champions Inter Milan by the time 2011 calendars hit the wall.

To those who have not been following the Premier League too keenly in recent years, Tottenham are no longer the side that was routinely thrashed by Chelsea in the early part of the decade. Entering Sunday, Tottenham boasts 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches against the Blues. Earlier this week, both these teams qualified for the Champions League round of 16 and won their respective groups, so the Champions League draw will considers these teams as 2 of the best 8 sides in Europe.

With Gareth Bale’s complete demolition of Internazionale, Tottenham have been best English football story in Europe. Sure, Chelsea's lack of form, England’s embarrassment at the hands of FIFA, and United’s Rooney drama used up all the ink in Newspaper factories across Britain, but Tottenham’s dismantling of Internazionale’s treble winning defense was the best football story English football provided Europe since the start of the season.

Against Inter Milan, Gareth Bale's pace and form were unparalleled, and the 21 year-old Welshman’s record of 3 goals and 2 assists in 135 minutes against Inter Milan’s treble winning back 4 quickly made him the most coveted commodity in Europe.

Let’s consider what Gareth Bale did to the previously invincible Maicon over 180 minutes. Maicon was generally regarded as the best right back in the world (or close to it) before Bale’s 3 goal second half at the San Siro. After another 90 minutes at White Hart Lane, Maicon was written off as too old, too slow, and finished in every newspaper from London to Milan. Maicon’s drastic decline in world football was balanced with the astronomic ascendance of Gareth Bale, and the Welshman did everything short of deliver Maicon’s retirement speech.

Chelsea have provided few highlights recently. The defending English champions have only won 1 of their last 6 league matches, and Chelsea’s prolific goal scoring frontline has only put together 1 multi-goal match in their last 8 contests. After losing 1-0 at Marseille on Wedensday in the Champions League, manager Carlo Ancelotti shared his thoughts on the fragile mental state of his defeated side. “I think we lost confidence,” he said. “Now, we are a little bit afraid to play football.”

As his words suggested, Carlo was not exactly exuding the confidence of a championship winning side. Nevertheless, Frank Lampard was back in training, and the goal scoring midfielder may be the spark Chelsea need to get off the canvas and land a few good blows to retake charge of the Premier League. Early reports point to Ancelotti using the attacking midfielder on Sunday in a desperate attempt to break Chelsea’s poor form.

Note this match in your PDA calendar because it should be a good one. Tottenham promises goals as they have not recorded a scoreless draw in their last 24 matches across all competitions and have scored 2 or more goals in 5 or their last 6 matches.

So, who’s going to score, then?

AccuScore simulated Chelsea vs Tottenham 10,000 times to predict the most likely goal scorers for each side. AccuScore projected Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard as the most likely goal scorers for Chelsea with Drogba as the only player to score in 40% of simulations. This Chelsea duo combined for an average of 0.9 goals across 10,000 simulations, so AccuScore forecasted Lampard and Drogba scoring a goal between them. Jermaine Defore, Roman Pavlyuchenko, and Gareth Bale were the most likely scorers for Tottenham. The 3 of them combined for 7 shots with 3 on target. AccuScore assumed Rafael Van der Vaart would not be available for this match.

Quote:"I see Tottenham as genuine title rivals. They're having a good season and there is no reason why they can't challenge.” Didier Drogba, Chelsea striker

Injury Round Up:

Unfortunately for Spurs, injuries have hit the North London side harder than the cold winter. Dutch midfielder Rafael Van der Vaart tore his hamstring late last month and was expected to miss the trip to Chelsea, but the former Real Madrid man has not been officially ruled out because he was recovering faster than expected. Tom Huddleston, Ledley King, Younes Kaboul, and Giovanni Dos Santos, however, are definite absentees on the weekend. Luckily for Harry Redknapp’s team, Jermaine Defoe is fully fit again and played a full 90 minutes for the first time since August in Tuesday’s Champions League match. The England international scored a brace and helped win Group A over Inter Milan, Werder Bremen, and Twente Enschede.

Chelsea’s decline in the Premier League coincided with key injuries and suspensions. Between Drogba’s mysterious malaria, Lampard missing 3 months due to a hernia surgery that had a 2 week recovery time-table, and Michael Essien getting a red card in his first match after a short injury bout, Chelsea have rarely produced a first-choice XI. Well, with Frank Lampard returning to practice this week, Chelsea’s squad is almost completely fit, (ignoring the long term injuries to Yossi Benayoun and Alex). Chelsea are gambling on Lampard’s return to spark the squad, so Lampard will be risked against Spurs. Whatever the remedy, Chelsea better snap out of it in a hurry. United and Arsenal are not providing any holiday gifts in the coming weeks. Bosingwa picked up a knock during the Champions League, so Paulo Ferreira will likely start at right back…[enter Gareth Bale stage left]

Check back Tomorrow: Preview - #1Arsenal at #2Manchester United

Click Here to View this week's Hot Trends and Learn about AccuScore Soccer's Simulation analysis

With International Euro 2012 qualifiers forcing a break in European club play, let us take this opportunity to look at what is developing in some of the major European football leagues:

Part 1:

English Premier League (EPL):

Chelsea, Chelsea, Chelsea! Unfortunately for all teams not named Chelsea, Chelsea started this year’s Premier League campaign in dominating fashion: 3 victories, 3 clean sheets, and a +14 goal differential. Last year’s FA Cup and Premier League champions returned essentially the same squad as last season with the only notable addition being Brazilian Ramires from Benfica and the only notable departures being Michael Ballack, Deco, and Ricardo Carvalho to Bayer Leverkusen, Flumenise, and Real Madrid, respectively. With Michael Essien once again healthy (Essien made only 14 appearances during the 2009/10 EPL), Ballack was already forgotten at Stamford Bridge on opening day, and the only concerns Blues fans have faced at this point in the season revolved around the fitness of Frank Lampard and John Terry. Lampard was scheduled to undergo a hernia operation this week and sit out 2-3 weeks, while Terry continued to struggle with a nagging hamstring injury left over from this summer’s World Cup. Terry’s inability to rest his injuries pointed to Chelsea’s lack of depth in the middle of the defense.

Promising Start: Chelsea has had many bright spots, but Florent Malouda appears to be the brightest. The in-form Chelsea hit-man, who scored 12 goals last season, has 3 starts and 4 goals. He has scored in every match, thus far.

Manchester United, last year’s runner up, returned an almost identical squad to last season and, thus, was projected to finish second best, once again. Sir Alex Ferguson’s nonchalant attitude against Fulham in the second round of the EPL led to United starting the only notable addition, Javier Hernandez (Chicharito), in place of Rooney, who was reportedly out sick with a stomach bug, instead of the more experienced Michael Owen. Chicharito struggled and United dropped valuable points at Fulham. Ferguson compounded his questionable line-up decision at forward by starting Park Ji-Sung in place of a perfectly healthy Nani, who came on late and contributed to the 2-2 draw by missing a penalty with 3 minutes remaining. The penalty would have put United up 3-1 and, effectively, ended the match. Fortunately, United rebounded with a through display of class against West Ham which saw Rooney finally open his 2010/11 EPL account, although it should be noted that it came from the penalty spot. Nani also rebounded by scoring in the win against West Ham.

Promising Start: The florescent bright spot for United, unquestionably, has been Dimitar Berbatov, who appears determined to improve on his 12 goals and 5 assist record from last season. The lanky Bulgarian has already finished 2 goals and passed off 1 assist in his first 3 starts. Further, his early season form has forced brilliant saves and robbed the 29 year-old of a hand full of goals.

Arsenal, last year’s bronze medalist, has impressed early in the campaign with Captain Cesc Fabregas and Dutch striker Robin Van Persie finally returning to the starting line-up in last weekend’s win over Blackburn Rovers. Unfortunately, that match marked yet another injury for the Dutch striker who only started 14 games for the Gunners last season. Although this injury does not appear to be serious, forward thinking by Arsene Wenger led to signing Marouane Chamakh from Bordeaux over the summer. In 2 starts and an appearance off the bench, the Frenchman has looked comfortable in the Arsenal system and has already opened his Premier League scoring account. Although most of the publicity about Arsenal’s long-term future gravitates towards Jack Wilshire, Cesc Fabregas’s return to the lineup means England’s 18 year-old midfielder must blend into the crowd of spectators wearing Arsenal kits at the Emirates. Arsenal’s young season has displayed great promise in its young team, but one youngster has been head and shoulders above his teammates after 3 rounds: Theo Walcott.

Promising Start: Theo Walcott, 21 years young, scored a hat-trick in his first start of the season and notched another tally in his second start lock into a 4 way tie for top EPL scoring honors with Didier Drogba, Florent Malouda, and Andy Carroll. Walcott, who made 23 appearances but only started on 12 occasions last season, has made his early season case to be a regular in Arsene Wenger’s starting XI.

Last season, 7 points separated Tottenham, who finished 4th, from Liverpool, who finished 7th. Manchester City and Aston Villa, who finished 5th and 6th, respectively, were in the hunt for the coveted 4th place finish, which, ultimately, led to Tottenham’s birth into the Champions League group stages. Entering this season, Tottenham and Manchester City bolstered their squad and seemed destined to, once again, fight it out for 4th place (if not better), while Liverpool and Aston Villa lost important central players and seemed unlikely to make legitimate runs at the top of the league. Both City and Spurs returned managers who have established themselves as leaders, leaving little doubt as to who made the decisions in their respective locker rooms.

In sharp contrast, Pool’s new manager, Roy Hodgeson, struggles to grab control of his team following the transfer deadline demands and departure of defensive-midfielder Javier Mascherano, and Villa searches to name a permanent manager after Martin O’Neill suddenly stepped aside a week before the season. However, Liverpool still retains a glimmer of hope with the positive additions of Raul Meireles and Chritian Polsen to replace the losses of Aquilani and Mascherano. Liverpool’s success this season hinges on how quickly these additions assimilate to the EPL, the fitness of Fernando Torres, and the continuing development of David Ngog.

The biggest Positive surprise of the season (Thus Far): Blackpool’s 4-0 victory against Wigan on opening day.

The biggest Negative surprise of the season (Thus Far): Everton have a disappointing 1 point after matches against Blackburn, Wolves, and Villa (without Milner).

Interesting Stat (Thus Far): 4 EPL matches have had a 6-0 score line.

(Chelsea vs West Brom; Arsenal vs Blackpool; Chelsea vs Wigan; Newcastle vs Wigan)

Notable Quote: "I think he was going to Bayern Munich yesterday for £18 million. He is available now for about £8 million and we thought for that amount of money he is a top player.” – Tottenham manager Harry Redknapp speaking about his last minute attempt to acquire Rafael Van Der Vaart from Real Madrid at the transfer deadline.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cleveland has home-court advantage and that is a big factor as to why it has the best chance of winning the Eastern Conference and the NBA Championship.  AccuScore gives Cleveland a 52% of beating Orlando in the Conference Finals, but if Orlando had home-court advantage, it would have had a 56% chance of beating the Cavs.  That means finishing with the best record was worth 8% in win probability to Cleveland.

The biggest thing to note is that the top three seeds are massive favorites with each being at least 92 percent to win in the opening round.  Boston is also a pretty sizable favorite winning the series over Miami nearly 2 out of 3 times. Moving on to the 2nd round, it becomes readily apparent that the class of the East is again Orlando and Cleveland. Atlanta has had a nice season but has just a 27 percent chance of reaching the Conference Finals because the Hawks would more than likely have to go through the Magic.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
The West probabilities are much more even across the board because of the quality of every team in the field.  All eight seeds won at least 50 games with the Lakers finishing just 7 games ahead of Oklahoma City.  By contrast, Cleveland finished 20 games ahead of 8th seeded Chicago.  The late-season surge by Phoenix was key because now it is the second overall favorite in the West behind L.A. The Lakers, despite playing poorly down the stretch, are still the clear favorites at nearly 37 percent to win the conference.

AccuScore is predicting a first-round upset with the Spurs getting the slight 50.8% chance of beating the Mavericks in the first round.  Interestingly, the Mavs still have a better shot than San Antonio of winning the West and the title despite being slight first-round underdogs. This is because AccuScore believes Dallas matches up better against the rest of the top teams in the conference than San Antonio. The Spurs, though, are favored in this one particular match-up.

WEST IS BEST, BUT CHAMPIONSHIP LIKELY GOES EAST
AccuScore simulated each team playing every other team home and away (870 total combinations).  The eight Eastern Conference playoff teams won 63.9% of simulations.  The eight Western Conference playoff teams won 73% of simulations.  The Western Conference playoff teams are clearly better collectively based on simulation winning percentage.

The West may be the stronger conference, but there is a 66% chance that the NBA champion comes out of the East because there is such a high chance that Cleveland or Orlando reaches the Finals and both teams will have home-court advantage. This gives both Cleveland and Orlando a solid advantage over any potential opponent in the Finals including the Lakers.

One other thing to note is the fact that Orlando is actually a bigger favorite than Cleveland against everyone except Denver and Oklahoma City. The Magic appear to be underrated heading into the postseason.

HOTTEST TRENDS IN THE NBA PLAYOFFS
AccuScore racked up an impressive 1193-1071, 52.7% +1490 on all point spread and totals picks this season.  Few people bet on every single game, so we do track key trends and these are some you should be aware of heading into the playoffs.  Our NBA Advisor product updates these trends and makes pick recommendations using these trends.  Make sure to sign up now.

SEASON LONG TRENDS
POINT SPREADS
Simulation and Betting line is < 2 Pts Different:   272-202, 57.4% +4980
Home Team is Favored:  422-344, 55.1% +4360
Eastern Conference Games:  188-158, 54.3% +1420
Top Team Trends

TOTALS
Simulation and Betting line is 4.5 to 6 Pts Different:  171-143, 54.5% +1370
Total Betting Line is 205.5 or More:  207-162, 56.1% +2880
Southeast Division Game Totals:  25-13, 65.8% +1070
Western Conference Game Totals:  202-174, 53.7% +1060

Before Tony Parker’s injury, the Spurs were projected to finish 6th in the West with 49.3 wins – just ahead of the Thunder and the Blazers.  Now with the news that Parker will miss 6 weeks with a wrist injury San Antonio is projected to finish – 6th in the West.

Despite losing Parker, a 3-time All-Star, for possibly the rest of the regular the forecast for San Antonio does not change significantly. His absence will mean more minutes for George Hill and Roger Mason with Manu Ginobili assuming more ball-handling duties. Keith Bogans and Malik Hairston could see increased minutes on the wing as well. 

The non-change in the forecast is less an indictment on Parker – currently averaging 16.5 points and 5.7 assists – and more circumstances beyond his influence at this point in the season. The Spurs are basically locked into one of the final three playoff spots in the West. They currently sit 1.0 game behind Oklahoma City and 1.5 ahead of Portland.  More importantly, the Spurs are 5.5 games ahead of 9th place Memphis.  With only 22 games remaining, it would take a complete collapse for San Antonio to fall out of playoff position.  The presence of Hill, Ginobili, and Tim Duncan makes that scenario extremely unlikely.

As you can see, Memphis has only a 3% chance of passing one of the three teams ahead of it including San Antonio. In the West, only the seeding is left to be determined at this point.

San Antonio’s closing schedule is very tough featuring road games against Boston, Phoenix, Denver, Dallas, Orlando, and the Lakers. The upside though is that San Antonio would be underdogs in all these road games even with a healthy Parker. The home schedule is no cake-walk either with the Cavs, Lakers, and Magic but the situation here is similar as well.  The overall forecast remains the same so Spurs fans shouldn’t worry about the rest of the regular season too much.  Instead, the team just needs to get Parker healthy for the playoffs.