MLB Closer Report - Week 16 - Trade Targets

  • Tuesday, July 27, 2010 3:40 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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This week in the Closer Report: talking trade targets and both Bobby Jenks and Kerry Wood get votes of confidence from their managers.

NL

Closer

Back-Up

ARI

Juan Gutierrez

Heilman, Demel, Qualls

ATL

Billy Wagner

Takashi Saito

CHC

Carlos Marmol

Sean Marshall

CIN

Francisco Cordero

Arthur Rhodes

COL

Huston Street

Manny Corpas

FLA

Leo Nuñez

Brian Sanches

HOU

Matt Lindstrom

Brandon Lyon

LAD

Jonathan Broxton

Hong-Chih Kuo

MIL

John Axford

Trevor Hoffman

NYM

Francisco Rodriguez

Pedro Feliciano

PHI

Brad Lidge

Jose Contreras

PIT

Octavio Dotel

Evan Meek, Joel Hanrahan

SD

Heath Bell

Luke  Gregerson

SF

Brian Wilson

Jeremy Affeldt

STL

Ryan Franklin

Jason Motte

WAS

Matt Capps

Drew Storen

• The most likely NL closers to be traded?  I’ll go with Matt Capps from Washington and Octavio Dotel with Pittsburgh. Both players would probably be sent to teams with established closers, and in both cases both guys would be droppable in all but the deepest formats.

In Washington I think the vacated closer job would go to Drew Storen. He was drafted as the future closer, and aside from some control issues (4.4 BB/9) he’s been solid in his rookie season. Giving the job to Tyler Clippard would seem counterproductive given their relative positions in the franchise. Clippard also has pitched very poorly over the past month allowing 16 runs in his last 13.2 IP.

Pittsburgh has two candidates for the job: Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan. While Meek currently has an ERA more than 2 runs better than Hanrahan (1.30 to 3.59) their FIPs (removing fielding from the equation) are nearly identical (2.91 to 2.76) with Hanrahan actually coming out slightly better. Hanrahan also has much better strikeout stuff sitting down 12.45 batters per 9 compared to just under 8 for Meek.  Hanrahan also has the all important “experience” with 14 career saves compared to just 1 for Meek. Even though Meek was inexplicably an All-Star this year (over deserving teammate and outfielder Andrew McCutchen) I believe Hanrahan is the better choice to take over the Pittsburgh closer role should Dotel be moved this week.

• Arizona interim manager Kirk Gibson is now trying to trust his bullpen more, and in turn appears to be using Juan Gutierrez as his de facto closer even though he has not named him officially. Gutierrez has logged the last two saves for the D-Backs, and he’s the one guy I would consider owning in a mixed league. I wouldn’t trust him however in a 10-team league, and would prefer to stay away from this situation completely.

 

AL

Closer

Back-Up

BAL

Alfredo Simon

Mike Gonzalez

BOS

Jonathan Papelbon

Daniel Bard

CHW

Bobby Jenks

Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz

CLE

Chris Perez

Wood (DL)

DET

Jose Valverde

Phil Coke

KC

Joakim Soria

Kyle Farnsworth

LAA

Brian Fuentes

Fernando Rodney

MIN

Jon Rauch

Matt Guerrier

NYY

Mariano Rivera

Joba Chamberlain

OAK

Andrew Bailey

Michael Wuertz

SEA

David Aardsma

Brandon League

TB

Rafael Soriano

Grant Balfour

TEX

Neftali Feliz

Frank Francisco

TOR

Kevin Gregg

Scott Downs

• There doesn’t appear to be a clear trade possibility among AL closers because of Kerry Wood’s injury. Players more likely to move are middle relievers like Scott Downs or Jason Frasor from Toronto or Kyle Farnsworth from Kansas City. Any reliever that moves to the Yankees immediately loses almost all value because Mariano Rivera is the only true “lock” in the majors.

• Kerry Wood’s injury more than likely precludes him being moved at the trade deadline, and Manny Acta says he will keep the closer job when he returns from injury.  That obviously isn’t good news for Chris Perez who has performed well in a temporary role. Wood of course is still an injury risk going forward, but Perez takes a value hit for the rest of the year.  Wood is 8-for-11 in save situations and Perez is 9-for-12 this season.

• Despite rumors to the contrary Bobby Jenks never lost his closer job according to White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. "We're a better ballclub if Bobby is our closer because that makes a lot of things easier for us,” said Guillen.  It certainly sounds like Jenks will be afforded every opportunity to keep pitching in the 9th, but if he continues to struggle J.J. Putz and Matt Thornton would both be in the mix for saves. Thornton already has five saves in seven opportunities this year.

• Baltimore still has not officially gone back to Mike Gonzalez as its closer. The last save for the team though was last Friday and completed by Alfredo Simon.  Gonzo has thrown just 1.2 innings since returning from the DL, and the team probably wants him to keep him in a set-up role awhile longer. Given the fragile state of Gonzalez, I would say Simon still has value the rest of the year. I’d keep Simon over other AL set-up men like Chris Perez, Daniel Bard, and Brandon League (but not Matt Thornton). 

• Joba Chamberlain has lost the exclusive set-up role to Mo Rivera. What that means if Rivera were to ever get hurt or be unavailable to close is unclear. Both Nate Robertson and Boone Logan will be part of the mix in the 8th inning now, and it would be hard to imagine the Yankees trusting Joba to close if they don’t trust him in the 8th. I don’t think this increases the value of either Robertson or Logan.  What it does mean is that the Yankees are probably trying to find some bullpen help via trade.  A guy like Scott Downs, if he were to be acquired would probably become the set-up man/back-up closer for the Yanks.

Closer Report Week 5 - Wood Returns, Street Rehabs, and a Mess in Philly

  • Tuesday, May 11, 2010 6:24 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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This week in the Closer Report we take a look at some rehabbing pitchers, unsettled situations in Philadelphia and Colorado, and two big-name closers struggling in the American League.

AL

Closer

Back-up to own

BAL

Alfredo Simon**

Cla Meredith, Gonzalez (DL)

BOS

Jonathan Papelbon

Daniel Bard

CHW

Bobby Jenks

Matt Thornton

CLE

Kerry Wood

Chris Perez

DET

Jose Valverde

Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

KC

Joakim Soria

Kyle Farnsworth

LAA

Brian Fuentes

Fernando Rodney

MIN

Jon Rauch

Matt Guerrier

NYY

Mariano Rivera

Joba Chamberlain

OAK

Andrew Bailey

Brad Ziegler

SEA

David Aardsma

Brandon League

TB

Rafael Soriano

Grant Balfour

TEX

Neftali Feliz

Frank Francisco

TOR

Kevin Gregg

Jason Frasor

**temporary closer

 

• I’ve taken Neftali Feliz off temporary status.  He’s converted 9 of 10 saves opportunities, and has now twice gone back-to-back outings without incident. Even better, he hasn’t walked a batter since 4/14, a span of 12 innings. I think he’ll stay in the closer role all season.

• The Indians have been cautious with Kerry Wood, but he finally made his return last Friday. He came in during the 7th inning and allowed 2 runs on 2 hits and 2 walks. He came in again in the 7th on Sunday and got an out. Eric Wedge has said though that he will be back in the closer’s role this week, and he is safe to own for now. Keep Chris Perez around though, just in case.

• Bobby Jenks finally might lose his job. In his last 7 appearances he has given up 8 earned runs. His last outing on Sunday was horrendous as he failed to get an out allowing a double, a single, then a three-run bomb. There is some hope though as Jenks’ xFIP (fielding independent pitching with normalized home run rates) is 3.07 compared to his 6.75 ERA.  But still, he won’t keep his job if can’t stop walking guys. Matt Thornton is probably the next in line as a power lefty with a K/9 at an electric 14.67. Thornton is pitching with control too with a career best 1.76 BB/9.  Scott Linebrink could potentially be in the mix, but Thornton is clearly the top candidate to replace Jenks.

• Do you know who’s not a good pitcher?  Brian Fuentes, and the Angels probably knew that when they signed Fernando Rodney. Fuentes has already given up 3 home runs and walked 4 batters in just 7.2 innings. He’s giving up a ton of fly balls with poor control so it’s no wonder that when batters make contact the ball is flying out of the park. Rodney has shown poor control as well this year, but it seems inevitable that Fuentes loses his job at some point this season.

NL

Closer

Back-up to own

ARI

Chad Qualls

Juan Gutierrez

ATL

Billy Wagner

Takashi Saito

CHC

Carlos Marmol

Carlos Zambrano

CIN

Francisco Cordero

Arthur Rhodes

COL

Manny Corpas?

 Street (DL)

FLA

Leo Nuñez

Renyel Pinto

HOU

Matt Lindstrom

Brandon Lyon

LAD

Jonathan Broxton

Troncoso, Sherrill

MIL

Trevor Hoffman

LaTroy Hawkins

NYM

Francisco Rodriguez

Pedro Feliciano

PHI

Brad Lidge

Jose Contreras

PIT

Octavio Dotel

Evan Meek

SD

Heath Bell

Mike Adams

SF

Brian Wilson

Jeremy Affeldt

STL

Ryan Franklin

Jason Motte

WAS

Matt Capps

Clippard, Batista

**temporary closer

• Huston Street will start his rehab assignment on Thursday.  He should be back on 5/25 if there are no setbacks, and he can’t come back soon enough for Colorado. Franklin Morales is now on the DL with shoulder issues. Manny Corpas pitched very well in April, but has been terrible in May allowing 6 earned runs in 5.2 innings with 1 blown save and a loss. I would guess Corpas gets another shot, but if he fails in that outing, the next chance would probably go to another reliever based on match-ups. Beimel, Belisle and Daley would be in the mix, but they have only 5 career saves combined. If Street was dropped in your league, this is obviously a grab-and-stash situation.

• Brad Lidge felt something in his elbow and was unavailable Monday. Any discomfort in the arm for a player with Lidge’s injury history is cause for alarm. With Madson on the DL, owning Jose Contreras is a must if you own Lidge. I’m expecting Lidge to miss some more time.

• Matt Capps already has 13 saves so he’s entrenched as the closer. Tyler Clippard has great numbers, but is curiously allowing plenty of inherited runners to score. These don’t affect his own ERA, but is still not a good sign for a guy that’s supposed to be a set-up man. Because of this stat quirk, Clippard actually blew three consecutive saves and gotten three wins while his ERA rose just 0.32.  He’s still striking guys out so I would assume he’s the primary back-up. Miguel Batista got a rogue save Monday because both Capps and Clippard had pitched the prior two days.

Rookie Fantasy Hitters to Watch

  • Wednesday, March 10, 2010 12:08 PM
  • Written By: AccuScore

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Everyone loves the new guy.  It’s especially true for back-up quarterbacks, and in baseball it’s true for hotshot prospects every spring.  Every year though, fantasy players jump a bit overboard looking for the next big thing and reach for prospects without defined roles, are too far from the majors, or simply not as good as their press clippings.  Here is a quick look at some rookies that could be interesting in fantasy this season.

Jason Heyward – OF, Atlanta
If there is one rookie to own in fantasy this year, this is the guy.  Conventional wisdom would say Heyward would return to the minors at least to start the year, but this is not a conventional player.  Universally seen as the top position player prospect in baseball, Heyward is a freak of nature.  He is still just 20 years old, but stands 6’4’’ and is up to 235 lbs. He also has been crushing balls this spring drawing rave reviews from everyone, and leading to comparisons to Albert Pujols from opposing managers.  Currently AccuScore has a conservative projection of 50% playing time with close to a .300 average and 13 home runs.  If he wins a job out of spring, he should be the true breakout star fantasy owners are looking for.  With Melky Cabrera, Matt Diaz and Eric Hinske being his main competition, RF looks like the perfect spot for Heyward in 2010.

Desmond Jennings – OF, Tampa Bay
Here is the classic case of a top prospect that fantasy owners should temper expectations for.  While viewed as a top 10 prospect, Jennings might not see a major league field this season.  Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton have two OF spots locked up, and Matt Joyce, and Gabe Kapler are very serviceable.  Jennings isn’t draftable in all but the deepest mixed leagues (unless you’re in a keeper/dynasty league of course).

Scott Sizemore – 2B, Detroit
Sizemore is the likely starter at 2B, and playing time is the key to success for any prospect.  He is not flashy, but put up solid numbers in the minors hitting .297.  More importantly he had a career .383 OBP which could lead to a decent run total in Detroit.  Sizemore has average speed, but could get you around 15-20 stolen bases with a full season of work.  He’s worth a look in AL-only leagues.

Brandon Wood – 3B, Anaheim
It’s probably now or never for Wood with the Angels. The loss of Chone Figgins leaves the 3B job to Wood, and we project him to hit .265 with solid power about 20 home runs. His problem has always been a long swing that leads to strikeouts, something he improved on last season. Wood is probably ready for a major league role, but I personally get the feeling the Angels don’t trust him and that Mike Scioscia flat-out doesn’t like him (as a player). For some reason, Scioscia seems to prefer Macier Izturis. A trade to another team would probably improve his fantasy outlook.

Drew Stubbs – OF, Cincinnati
Stubbs will probably face some competition for the CF job from Chris Dickerson, but he is likely to win a starting spot. We currently project Stubbs for a .277 average with 30 steals and more than 80 runs.  That is a useful fantasy player.  His does have a problem with strikeouts, and hit just .202 on the road in about 200 major-league at-bats last season. However, he is just 25 and will have time and opportunity this season.  He could be a nice late-round pick-up.

Tommy Manzella – SS, Houston
The fact that he will be the starting SS for the Astros should be an indictment on the entire franchise.  Manzella posted a career .321 OBP in the minors.  He is all-glove and no-hit, somebody you don’t want to own in fantasy.

Michael Brantley – OF, Cleveland
The signing of Russell Branyan might leave Brantley without a job pushing Matt LaPorta to LF. Still, Brantley is a name to remember for later in the year.  He hit .313 during a September call-up, and is a career .300 avg / .383 OBP hitter in the minors with plus speed.  With a full season of work he could hit for a solid average with 40 steals and good run totals (but without much power).