After Hours

Logic says the Colts will win Super Bowl XLIV. They’re the better team. But logic has never been one of my strengths. Look no further than the folks who have much better heads than me, the oddsmakers in Vegas, who are picking the Colts. That means plenty. They opened as a three-point favorite, but they’ve doubled that. Tony Dungy says it won’t even be that close. And what better authority is there than Dungy? After all, it took Peyton Manning less than a half to figure out the Jets, the league’s best defense. Midway through the second half, it was game over.

The Saints’ defense isn’t the Jets. It isn’t close. It ranked No. 25 in the league (Colts were 18th). And it’s why many believe Peyton will have a field day with it and the Colts will win their second title in four seasons. Be prepared for the greatest of all time arguments. And how many commercials will he have then?

But in my convoluted logic, I still believe offense is the best defense. N.E. Quinn and Bill Standford taught me that. So whatever Jonathan Vilma, Darren Sharper and the Saints’ unit lacks, Drew Brees and the offense can make up. They're the league’s best, averaging more than 400 yards per game. A good defense stops offense you say?

OK, consider this: The Saints have one of the better rushing attacks in the NFL (they rank sixth) and the Colts were last in the league. It hasn’t meant much so far (unless you’re a Chargers’ or Jets’ fan) in this pass-happy era, but ball control means plenty for the Saints, particularly if they can keep Manning and his offense off the field and dictating drive after drive. Pierre Thomas will be a factor.

“It is very important to be balanced, to be able to run and pass and have each of those set the other up, because you can’t be one-dimensional against a team like the Colts," Brees said earlier this week. "They’ve shown with their pass rush and their ability to bring a safety down in the box to stop the run, if you are one-dimensional, they can eat you up. You have to be able to mix both the run and the pass and be effective at it.”

Here’s another stupid reason we’re picking the Saints: Isn’t Peyton due for a bad game and maybe the other Payton (Sean) is due a big one? And what about Dwight Freeney? Yeah, what about him? The Saints aren’t buying his story (so why should we?), obviously believing he’ll play. But will he be a factor? We say no. Or it won’t be positive if you’re a Colts’ fan. And that’s another reason we like the Saints.

How can Indy win if it doesn’t pressure Brees? The Vikings had the best front in football, and though the Saints struggled with it, they came out on top.

They’ll win this game too. Why ruin a good story and an awesome party?

Saints 33, Colts 31.

Read more of Forrest Lee at Blak4rest.com.