Cashing In

Your "Bad Beat" for Tuesday is on:

Diamondbacks (over 8 1/2) at St. Louis.

Nothing great at all today but a total at Busch that should have resulted in an over and didn't.

Albert Pujols belted a pair of home runs and the Cardinals raced out to the 8-0 lead by the sixth inning. Only one more run was needed for some and a push was already locked in for those who were lucky enough to go over the 8 early on.

Nada, nothing, zilch.

Game ended 8-0.



Your winners for Wednesday are on:

3* Royals (minus 120) vs. Chicago.

2* Jays (minus 125) at Cleveland.

2* Mets (minus 110) at Florida.

A small losing 1-1 Tuesday as the 3* Rays lost but the 2* A's won. Oh and by the way I always stress staying with a play as action even with a pitching change so Oakland is a winner for me.



No great once in a lifetime winner but a solid slate with some quantity.

The big play comes today from Kansas City as I am going to back Zach Greinke against the scorching White Sox. Ozzie's boys are playing at a very high level and Jake Peavy has rejuvenated his career but Greinke at home is just too cheap here.

I love the way the KC righty has been pitching after that rough stretch at the end of May. Things have turned around and we are seeing the great kid from last season right now. Throw in a decent enough lineup with Butler, Dejesus and a few others and the home field advantage and I don't care how good "the good guys" have been of late.

Greinke at home is just too cheap!



Is Cleveland really going to win a third straight against the better team in the Jays? I just don't think so. I'm not saying that Cito Gaston's team is all that but they are clearly superior and to go up against a mediocre lefty in Laffey with quality righthanded bats like Vernon Wells and a few others means we should be scoring some runs.

Jesse Litsch is obviously not a guy that I can hang my hat on and even the weak hitting Tribe with Shin Soo Choo and very little may get some pokes in but a third straight victory here at the Jake just should not happen.



The game is in Puerto Rico not Florida and Mike Pelfrey, despite not being as great as earlier in the season, is still really solid and a notch above Chris Volstad.

Don't get me wrong I really like Volstad as the kid has a solid solid ceiling and may be very good for years to come but right now he is no Pelfrey.

The Marlins, like the Indians up top, took the first two of the series and winning a third in a row is asking a lot and frankly a bit too much.

Look for Reyes, Wright, Bay and the Mets to show why they are at the top of the NL East and get a solid win today.

Your "Bad Beat" for Tuesday is on:

Astros (even money, first 5) at Kansas City.

Houston built the 6-3 lead into the bottom of the fifth inning. One more frame of less than three runs, which was highly probable, and the Houston first five backers would be counting their cash.

Felipe Paulino struck out Scott Podsednik to begin the frame and then got Jason Kendall to fly out so there were two outs and nobody on.

Then the fun begins.

A single, a walk, a catcher's interference (yes a catcher's interference), two more singles, another walk and a double plated six runs. Then finally came a pitching change and an immediate RBI single by Podsednik as KC batted around to cap the seven run rally all with two outs and nobody on-base.

From 6-3 to 10-6 just like that, yikes!!!!!



Your winners for Wednesday are on:

3* Brewers (plus 150) at Anaheim.

2* Mets (minus 120) at Cleveland.

A quality winning 1-1 Tuesday as the 2* underdog Braves lost but the 4* Brewers plus 160 came through with ease!



I am going to roll with the Brewers. Milwaukee's record still stinks but it's just a matter of time before this team started to go off and win some games with their talent and it appears that time has come.

Braun, Fielder, Hart, Weeks and the fellas are a very talente dteam that for whatever reason just could not get out of their own way for the first 60 or so games. But I have no issues sticking with these guys as they are not as bad as they showed and that is creating a nice little value in this series out west.

I like Mike Scioscia's Angels as Anaheim is a professional team that is very sound. But they are without Kendry Morales and after a great last few weeks seems to be coming back down to Earth.

Chris Narveson is on the bump for us and that does scare me but Joel Pineiro is not the same guy from last season and should have some more probelms today.

This game is very close to being 50-50 and to get this price back with the Brew Crew is a no-brainer.



Just a few weeks ago Jerry Manuel looked like he was going to get fired. Right about now though the guy is looking like the Manager of the Year.

All of a sudden the Mets are playing great ball and surging to the top of the AL East, unreal but true. David Wright looks really solid again, Jason Bay and Jose Reyes are really good and others are chipping in.

Jonathan Niese has been great when he's ben healthy this season. He hurled a brilliant one hitter last time out after returning from injury. The lefty should be just fine against what is a bad and weak hitting Cleveland team. The Tribe have been a little better of late thanks to a semi emergence from Travis Hafner but Hafner is a lefty that can get neutralized here for sure.

The Tribe overall are a bad bad baseball team that no longer has pitchers like Sabathia and Lee or hitters like Martinez, DeRosa and others and lost Sizemore for the year. This franchise has pretty much lost it and even with a pretty good pitcher in Mitch Talbot Cleveland should lose another game today.

Your "Bad Beat" for Thursday is on:

Suns (plus 2 1/2, first quarter) at Los Angeles.

A consolation prize to any Orioles backers who watched their team allow five runs in the eighth inning after leading 5-2 in that frame. How does Mark Hendrickson still have a job?

To the beat of the day and it comes in the first quarter as Alvin Gentry's club got out of the gate well on Thursday and looked to be a lock in the opening 12 minutes. Phoenix built a 19-13 lead with a tad over two minutes to go in the quarter. It would take an implosion to not cover the 2 and a hook now.

Well the champions are the champions for a reason I guess as they closed the quarter out on an 11-2 run capped by a Pau Gasol layup with about two seconds remaining and this quarter ended 24-21 Lakers and a 1/2 point comeback cover.

Yikes!



Your winner for Friday is on:

3* Mets (even) at Milwaukee.

Another winning day on Thursday as the 3* Suns came through in the end. The smaller play on the 2* Diamondbacks was a complete dud as Dan Haren stunk but all in all nothing to complain about!



I'm not saying that the Mets are a total lock here in Milwaukee as the Brewers are a talented club led by Braun and Fielder but Milwaukee has been underachieving for awhile now and all of a sudden the Mets are surging.

New York just embarassed the Phillies at home and no matter how much of that was Philadelphia being bad you still need to give credit where credit is due. The Mets are starting to play a whole heck of a lot better and now with Johan Santana on the bump I can't help but back them here.

Yovanni Gallardo is a hurler with great stuff but the righty doesn't exactly always use it. This kid has lights out potential but also seems to wet himself at times.

Reyes, Wright, Bay and the Metropolitans always had some talent, it was just a matter of manning up and playing with a little toughness. This team last season certainly had injuries as an excuse but they were also a bit gutless. Right now the Mets are becoming a solid team and are never a terrible bet with a still bona fide ace in Santana on the bump.

The Brewers have got to start playing some better ball themselves at some point but until they do I'll take my chances with Johan and the visitors and not really lay anything.

Your "Bad Beat" for Monday is on:

Magic (under 187 1/2) at Boston.

It doesn't get much more simple than this beat. Once again Orlando and Boston clamped down with the defense yesterday, more so in the second half, and this game was looking like another fairly easy under.

But then the score was tied at 86 and regulation ended meaning a full five more minutes. 16 points were still needed to push this thing over that total which was not a total given. The game was still tied at 86 after 2 plus minutes were played in the extra session. But then 16 points were scored in the next two minutes alone as Dwight Howard and the Magic won in upset fashion 96-92 and pretty much the over players rejoiced in the end thanks to sheer luck!



Your winners for Tuesday are on:

3* Yankees (minus 120) at Minnesota.

2* Mets (plus 120) vs. Philadelphia.

One play on Monday and it was a loser on the Montreal Canadiens who I am glad are now eliminated. This team lied down like dogs in this last series, dogs!



I am all about both New York teams today. Firsat the Yankees who actually are struggling a bit and just lost two of three to the rival Mets. Joe Girardi's team does not have a ton of momentum in their corner and are a little beaten up right now but the Bombers always seem to find a way to beat the Twins and behind AJ Burnett I expect that trend to continue.

I really can't say many negative things about Minnesota as they are a very good team. Mauer and Morneau are awesome and Kubel, Cuddyer and Span are solid as well. Plus I like Scott Baker and what he usually brings to the table. But Burnett has been really good more times than not this season and the Yankees are still the Yankees.

Arod and Teixeira have not been playing up to their superstar levels just yet but that's creating a solid value here and in the end to get the Yanks minus a small number against the Twins is enough for me.



The Phillies are still the better team when compared with the Mets but Philadelphia just showed they can't hit a knuckleball as Tim Wakefield stympied the Fightin's for a full eight innings just the other day. Now Charlie Manual's squad gets the pleasure of seeing that pitch one more time here against RA Dickey.

I'm not so sure that one can just make adjustments against this flutterball type of a pitch and to get some money back here against the aging Jamie Moyer with a surging Mets team is the right side. Jason Bay has broken out a bit and Wright and Reyes are still guys with superstar potential. Throw in Rod Barajas who is having a great year and the Mets at Citi Field have my vote for sure.

Dickey is not good at all but I can see Utley, Howard, Werth and the Phils struggle again against a knuckler and old man Moyer get hit a bit. Moyer has been very good of late but let's be honest here, the guy is literally 47 years old and not somebody that can be expected to continue this solid hurling.

Come on Dickey!

Your "Bad Beat" for Saturday is on:

Blue Jays (32 combined hits, runs and errors) at Arizona.

If you didn't know some on-line sportsbooks have props for each game with an over/under on "hits, runs and errors". Well the Toronto-Arizona game last night was no exception and had the very high number of 32. It would take a lot to get over that total but it certainly didn't look to be the case early on.

The Diamondbacks went crazy and built an 8-1 lead after two and the game already had a total of 19 with seven innings remaining which pretty much meant this thing was going to obviously skyrocket over that 32.

Or not.

There literally was not even a hit until the fifth inning and that was the only hit until the seventh. So this thing went from 19 after two to 21 into the eighth!?!?

Now that's a change of events!

Toronto did wreak some havoc in that frame plating four runs and four hits tacking 8 on to get to 29. But there was only one more hit in the final inning and this number ended on 30, a shocking under in the end!



Your winners for Sunday are on:

4* Angels (plus 150) at St. Louis.

4* Mets (plus 125) vs. New York.

A dreadful 3* loser on the Magic and a 2* winner on the Mets plus about 150 made this day finish up right around even.



I'm a lot higher on Mike Scioscia's Angels than most right now as the Halos have been struggling for the bulk of this season. But I do believe this team will be very good as they just have too much talent to not be and with their stud ace in Jered Weaver on the bump I can't help but back Anaheim plus a hefty number like this.

Chris Carpenter is a beast and Albert and the Redbirds are really good and probably better than the Angels but Anaheim boasts a very professional hitting team with guys like Matsui, Hunter, Abreu and others and should get some licks in today.

Weaver will not just get blasted and with Anaheim in this thing for all 9 innings I will take my chances that they are able to pull this game out in the end as they did yesterday.



Joe Girardi's Yankees are not locked and loaded right now and are actually quite injured. Today's visitors still do have a ton of tlaent thanks to Arod alone but this team is not playing all that great and are up against still one of the best in Johan Santana.

CC Sabathia is awesome and overall probably about equal to Santana. I expect both lefties to do their thing and be very good as they usually are but taking away one of the Yankees bats and having guys like Winn or Cervelli around takes away some fear of the Big Bad Bronx Bombers.

I'm sure Wright will strike out a couple of times but the guy is still solid to go along with Reyes and Bay and I'll back the home dog Mets today.

Your "Bad Beat" for Friday is on:

Reds (minus 115, first 5 innings) at Cleveland.

A consolation prize to any Yankee run-line backers as the Bombers led 2-0 with two outs and nobody on in the bottom of the 9th at Citi Field only to be backdoored thanks to a pair of doubles off of the great Mariano Rivera in the 2-1 Yankee victory.

The beat of the day goes to the Reds who owned the 4-1 lead into the bottom of the fifth inning. Cleveland had a man on second base with two outs so any Cincinnati first five backers were basically counting their cash. After all this Indian team really can't hit a lick and were showing it through the first 4.2 innings.

But then...

Trevor Crowe doubled plating a run and then on the very next pitch Shin Soo Choo belted his second home run of the game and all of a sudden this thing was tied at 4 and that's how the first 5 would end.

An absolute easy victory turned into a sister kissing tie, Wow!



Your winners for Saturday are on:

3* Magic (plus 3 1/2) at Boston.

2* Mets (plus 150) vs. New York.

A 3* winner on the Astros plus about 160 and a 3* underdog loser on the Angels leads to another winning day on Friday.

I liked the Celtics in the first few games of the series and it worked out well. But I am switching sides here, despite the boys from Boston looking like the better team, because this is it for Orlando. A loss and down 0-3 means it's over. Therefore the Magic are going to lay it all on the line and will prove that they are still the same team that just won 14 straight games, including 8 straight in the playoffs, before the first game of this series.

Doc's boys are confident and flying around and overall right now great. But Dwight Howard is still a beast in the paint and there are other pieces there with Nelson, Carter, Pietrus, Reddick, Lewis and so on.

No matter how good the Big three along with a great Rondo have been looking the Magic are still a great team and one that should win this game. Orlando hasn't just forgotten how to play the game. Yes they played back-to-back clunkers and are in a hole right now but I do believe this team is alright and will grab this game.

Back a champion against a wall and they usually will scratch and claw their way out of it. I do believe that Stan Van Gundy's team is a champion and therefore will respond with a vengeance.



Phil Hughes has been great and is legit. The kid can be dominant but so can Mike Pelfrey who has been phenomenal this season and looks to finally becoming the hurler that Mets' fans hoped.

I expect both pitchers to control this game and do their thing. To get money at home like this though is too good to pass up. The Yankees are a banged up club and have guys in their lineup that are not typical Yankees. The Cervelli's of the world and Russo's of the world and Winn's of the world do not scare me at all. Obviously Arod, Tex and Jeter are awesome but with the pitcher hitting and the plethora of injuries Joe Girardi's team is a little hamstrung today.

Wright, Reyes, Bay and the Mets at home with a quality pitcher plus this money is more than enough to give it a go.

Your "Bad Beat" for Sunday is on:

Mets (first 5 innings minus 145) at Philadelphia.

There were no real crazy beats on this Sunday. A consolation prize to Mariners backers who watched David Aardsma blow the 1-0 9th inning lead in the 3-1 extra inning loss.

The beat of the day goes to the Mets in the first 5 as they built up a 3-0 first inning lead thanks to a David Wright home run and owned the 5-2 lead in the bottom of the fourth inning.

With the great Johan Santana on the hill that should have been enough. The score was 5-2 with the bases loaded and two men out. The 47 year old pitcher Jamie Moyer was batting which should have signaled an easy out and the inning over. But Santana just completely lost it and walked Moyer. Then allowed a grand slam by Shane Victorino and two batters later a two run bomb off the bat of Chase Utley.

This thing turned into a rout in about two minutes and anybody who had Johan and the Mets in that first five was shellshocked for sure.



Your winners for Monday are on:

3* Spurs (plus 4) at Phoenix.

2* Rangers (plus 120) at Oakland.

A 1-1 Sunday for pretty much a dead even day or a slightly winning one as the 2* on the Bucks lost but the 2* on the Braves minus 1 1/2 plus about 125 cashed with ease.



I really like the Spurs in this game and this series. I get the feeling that Gregg Popovich's team is ready to make another deep run like in years' past. The big three is still intact, granted older but still there and there are some younger players like DeJuan Blair and George Hill now in the mix. Also throw in Richard Jefferson and the Spurs really could win it all after playing possum for the majority of the season.

Phoenix had a great season and is extremely talented led by the usual suspects in Nash and Stoudemire. But the point guard has that banged up hip and I still question the Suns defense when the chips are down.

The Spurs are too complete and too experienced and too good overall and should take care of business.



Rich Harden goes back to Oakland and should be rearing to go in this spot to show his old team and old fans he still has it. Granted the Canadian righthander is not what he used to be but I still think Harden has great stuff when healthy and should dominate a weak and struggling A's lineup.

Dallas Braden has been very good so far this season but he is no Harden when push comes to shove and to get the better lineup with the better pitcher who should be more than motivated plus a little is enough to give it a go.

Your "Bad Beat" for Friday is on:

White Sox (plus 175, first 5) at New York.

A big time consolation prize of a beat to any Utah Jazz first half backers as they were laying three and watched the Nuggets end the first half on an amazing 15-3 run as Denver went to the locker room trailing by only two.

But the beat of the day comes from the Bronx where Paul Konerko belted his league leading 11th home run in the first inning and the White Sox built the early 3-0 lead. The score was 4-2 in the bottom of the fifth inning with two outs and nobody on.

The fat lady wasn't singing yet but she was warming up in terms of that first five inning play. Brett Gardner singled on an 0-2 pitch so the Yanks had some life. Gardner then stole second. But that run really didn't matter as the Sox were up by a deuce.

On the next pitch though Derek Jeter homered to left and the game was tied at 4 and the play ended in a bad bad beat tie.



Your winners for Saturday are on:

3* Mets (plus 180) at Philadelphia.

2* Diamondbacks (minus 115) at Chicago.

Three plays on Friday with the big one being 5* on Utah minus the number coming through along with the 2* on the Nats plus 190 in another huge winning day!!!!



Just a pair of plays on the diamond as the hardwoods blow dog poo. The Mets may not beat the great Roy Halladay today but I certainly can't pass up this great takeback.

Mike Pelfrey has quite possibly been the best hurler in the game so far. The guy has been complete money and even saved a game in St. Louis a few weeks ago. Whatever Pelfrey has touched has turned to gold. If that doesn't continue here against the capable Phils then so be it but with the streak that the Mets are currently on combined with the streak that Pelfrey is on how can I pass this number up?

Halladay is phenomenal and probably will be phenomenal but right now the Mets are the better team of these two and Pelfrey has been every bit as good as Doc. Win or lose I'm about Wright, Reyes, Bay, Francouer and this fire hot barking dog!



Carlos Silva has been a lot better than most expected, including myself, but the righty is still not very good and certainly not close to Dan Haren.

The Arizona righthander is great at times and overall very very very good. Lou Pinella's team finally put up some runs yesterday as the wind howled out but the Cubbies are still not currently a team that is playing all that well. Lee, Soriano and Ramirez have struggled and overall things are far from being hunky dory in Wrigleyville.

The Diamondbacks are mediocre at best but guys like Kelly Johnson aned Adam LaRoche have been playing well to go along with a bona fide home run hitter in Mark Reynolds.

The bottom line is Haren vs. Silva at a near pick, enough said!

Your "Bad Beat" for Monday is on:

Timberwolves (plus 5, first quarter) at San Antonio.

There really were a bunch of "Bad Beats" last night. The Wizards getting outscored 40-21 in the fourth quarter and failing to cover would fit that description as well as the Blue Jays blowing it in the 9th and losing in extras would as well.

But there is one that I like most of all and it comes from San Antonio. The Spurs were a 14 1/2 point favorite in the game and a five point favorite in the first quarter. Yes if you didn't know you can even bet quarters these days.

Minnesota is God awful but they did jump out to the surprising 22-15 lead with less than six minutes to go in the period. When getting five one would figure that now being up 12 with five and change only remaining makes the visitors a heck of a bet in the first quarter.

"One would think".

And that's why they are the Timberwolves I guess. Tim Duncan and the Spurs went on a 12-0 run, as if it was destined by some higher being, and the number was therefore on five with about a buck and a half remaining. Then with under a minute to go Ian Mahinmi of the Spurs slammed it down on an assist from Tony Parker and this thing went into the second quarter 33-26 Spurs and a San Antonio big-time comeback and cover.



Your winner for Tuesday is on:

3* Rockies (minus 1 1/2 runs plus 145) vs. New York.

Another perfect 2-0 sweep on Monday as the 3* on the Hawks and 2* on the Texas Rangers won.



Nothing much doing today but one play from the thin air of Coors Field. Until the Mets can consistently show they are ready to become a good team again I can't help but lay that extra run with a quality hitting Colorado team and take back some coin.

Even with Jose Reyes' return the Mets are not good and not the Rockies right now. Carlos Beltran is still out, Carlos Delgado is a thing of the past and the New Yorkers just looked horrific at home against the lowly Nationals. Jon Maine can be good at times, I guess, but the righty also is nothing at all above mediocre and probably about even with lefty Greg Smith.

The Mets do have potential with Jason Bay now around helping David Wright and Reyes but Jerry Manuel's team was a disgrace last season and is once again showing negative signs early on this season.

Smith certainly is not winning a Cy Young in his future but Colorado at Coors can score runs, maybe not like in years' past pre humidor but Helton, Hawpe, Stewart, Fowler and some others are pretty good. If Colorado winds up winning by a lone run then I chalk it up to some poor luck and nothing more. But this thing can easily have 9-4 in the end, even with a converted reliever in Smith on the bump for us, and I'll back Colorado in a going away win!

Your "Bad Beat" for Sunday is on:

Thunder (minus 13) vs. Minnesota.

This type of a "Bad Beat" is truly not that abnormal in the NBA but for this night it's still the worst I could find.

Kevin Durant looked great once again pouring in 40 points and Oklahoma City was running away with this thing 43-25 after a quarter. By the half the lead was increased to 72-50.

But when laying a Baker's Dozen it's never in the bag until the final whistle and that was the case here.

The terrible Timberwolves battled and behind 22 points from Jonny Flynn did enough to cover this thing in the end. Minnesota outscored Oklahoma City 31-18 in the third and did enough in the final period, despite being down by 14 in the final 90 or so seconds to lose the game by only 8, 116-108.



Your winners for Monday are on:

4* Duke (minus 7 1/2) vs. Butler.

2* Marlins (plus 105) at New York.

An 0-2 Sunday as the Yankees crapped on themselves blowing the 5-1 lead and the Nets stunk from the get go.

It is difficult to lay such a number against such a great defensive team which Butler is and the Bulldogs are pretty much at home which helped them. But with that said Duke is too good of a team right now and way too complete to not win this thing by about 12 or so points in the end.

We all know how good Scheyer, Singler and Smith can be and of late contributions from Zoubek and Thomas and the Plumlee Brothers have been phenomenal signaling a team that is the best in the country right now and a squad that is poised and ready to cut down the nets. I never would have said this a few short weeks ago but I have been sold of late on how much improved Coach K's team is.

Howard and Mack will probably play and the Bulldogs are not going to get blown out like West Virginia did in the national semifinal but after 40 minutes Duke is just too good right now.



No Beltran and no Reyes signals a bad bad Mets team right now. The Marlins aren't going to win the World Series and Johan Santana is still a stud but the fish are the better team right now and Josh Johnson is awesome and quite possibly even better than Santana.

I love Florida's starter today as this guy when healthy is as good as any hurler on this planet. Johnson's numbers are flat out insane and the best player on the field is clearly Hanley Ramirez. Sure David Wright can be awesome and Jason Bay helps out the Mets but Citi Field is a pitchers' ballparka dn we saw how poorly the Mets fared last season thanks to all of their injuries and today in this vast park are going to have problems once again against Johnson.

Florida is just the better everything here today and to not have to lay money with Johnson, even on the road, is a semi steal.

Your "Bad Beat" for Friday is on:

Morgan State (plus 9 1/2, first half) vs. West Virginia.

Morgan State raced out to the early 10-0 lead over Bob Huggins' Mountaineers. Now I know that one run does not make a full half but come on?

It was then 17-9 Bears in the lead midway through the half so the underdog Bears were still in unreal shape. West Virginia is too good and it was obvious they would come back to seize the lead but when you're in the hole by basically 18 points and under 10 minutes left in the half Morgan State first half backers had to be smiling.

But Joe Mazzulla tied it up at 21 with 5:46 to go and hit the ensuing free throw for the three point play as the Mounties grabbed their first lead of the game.

Fast forward to the final minute and the score 36-27 for the favorites. John Flowers made a layup and was fouled but missed the free throw so the score was 38-27 with 22 seconds to go. Morgan State had the last possession but missed and West Virginia somehow covered the half thanks to the half ending 29-10 run.

Wow!



Your winner for Saturday is on:

5* St. Mary's (plus 4 1/2) vs. Villanova.

Only Georgia Tech came through for me in the poor 1-2 day. The roll has been great until these last two days, it happens, not much more I can say about it.



One play today as that is all that is needed with this dead solid lock!

St. Mary's is going to win this game and to be getting any points is more than enough for me.

Villanova is a talented squad but they are also a team that has regressed pathetically of late. Robert Morris was the better team in that last game and the Wildcats have dropped five of eight, even with that game being a win, and a lot of those have come in embarassing fashion.

I do respect and like Jay Wright as a coach because he has done some really good things with this program. But right now I believe that the team is lost. Reynolds and Fisher were just suspended for the beginning of that last game and things are just off right now for this two seed that never should have been a two seed to begin with.

Villanova is more like an eight seed right now and that is being generous. The 'Cats have been whacked around over the past month and certainly are lacking confidence. There is still talent with Reynolds, Fisher, Redding and some others but St. Mary's pounded Gonzaga to win their tournament and just pretty much shocked a lot of people in that relatively easy victory over a quality Richmond team.

Omar Samhan will bang down low and we all know about how the Mary's guards can fire away from beyond the arc.

The bottom line is that Villanova has been a bad basketball team of late and I just do not see a 180 taking place in this spot.

Your "Bad Beat" for Monday is on:

Old Dominion (minus 8 1/2) vs. William & Mary.

There were no real terrible beats for Monday that I know of but I can tell you that I got very lucky with the Tribe.

Old Dominion was the right side and should have won this game going away. The Monarchs were up early and often building the 27-14 lead 13 minutes into the contest and owning the 41-26 lead with about 14 to play.

Bill and Mary did tighten things up and were within 56-51 in the final minute. The free throw game would then evolve and ODU missed three of their final six and this thing ended in a Tribe cover at 60-53.



Your winners for Tuesday are on:

3* George Washington (plus 11 1/2) at Dayton.

2* Penn (plus 13) at Princeton.

A 2-0 sweep for 5* of profit on Monday as both William & Mary and the Nets snuck in their respective numbers in the end.



Who is Dayton right now? I'm not even sure the Flyer players know the answer. Things have not gone well at all for Brian Gregory's team. The season started out great and Dayton appeared to be headed straight for an at-large berth in the tournament but that appears to no longer be the case.

The Flyers are a talented squad that at home can be very good with Johnson and Wright but this team has done little of late if anything at all. They just lost outright at home to St. Louis as a very similar favorite to today and have dropped four of their last five overall.

Dayton is 19-11 overall and 8-8 in the A-10 which is clearly better than GW's 16-13 mark and 6-10 in-conference but Karl Hobbs has done a solid job this season and his Colonials are not terrible. Joseph Katuka has been on-fire of late and the team is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven. That's good enough for me to back this semi live dog.



The Penn Quakers have had an awful season compared to the last 15 or so years where they were either the class of the Ivy League or second best behind Princeton but in this rivalry spot against a low scoring Tiger offense I'll grab a Baker's dozen or so.

Jerome Allen's team has improved of late and just played Harvard down to the wire in an easy cover but one point loss last Friday. Then next day they beat up a terrible Dartmouth squad and with Zach Rosen filling it up as usual should be able to stay in range today. The Quakers have covered three of their last five and I really do believe we will see four of six soon.

Princeton is an upper eschelon squad in the conference as they are clearly behind Cornell but right there with Harvard for second best. Sydney Johnson's squad is 19-8 overall and 9-3 in-conference. They should win here for sure but rivalry type games are usually tighter than expected as Penn-Princeton really is a rivalry type game. Plus the Tigers are far from being an offensive juggernaut and really should not go too far north of 60, if they get that high.

The Tigers will win the game but with the Quaks semi improvements and this game being for very little I'll grab the number.

Your "Bad Beat" for Friday is on:

Drake (plus 9 1/2) vs. Northern Iowa.

A big-time consolation to any DePaul backers and under backers in that St. John's-DePaul clash as the Blue Demons blew the 16 point halftime lead and lost 90-82 in triple overtime!

Now to the beat at hand. The game was meant to be a total rout for the fresher and more talented Panthers but it was anything but early on.

The score was shockingly 24-13 Bulldogs 12 minutes into the game. Drake did not score for the final 8 minutes literally and Northern Iowa ended the first half on a 10-0 run and the score was 24-23 at the half, still looking good for this dog.

Drake's defense continued to play at a very high level limiting Northern to only 32 points in the second half and 55 total for the game. The problem though for Drake was their offense which tallied a whole 16 second half points in an unreal 55-40 defeat.

Drake was outscored 42-16 in the game's final 28 minutes. Now how the heck is that possible!?!?!?



Your winners for Saturday are on:

5* Baylor (minus 3) vs. Texas.

3* Villanova (minus 3) vs. West Virginia.

A winning 2-1 Friday as James Madison won outright with ease and The Citadel won going away!



A couple of small home favorites here that are just not giving as much as they should be.

Baylor has been great this season, flat out freakin' great. LaceDarius Dunn is phenomenal and Epke Udoh and Tweety Carter are no joke. Scott Drew has ressurected this program and in Waco should flat out win this thing by a ton.

Who the heck is Texas right now? The Longhorns are not good at all. They were the top team in the land and have done a whole lot of losing ever since. The road has been extremely cruel to the Longhorns and to expect things to change today is stupid.

The 'Horns had to rally in that last game at home just to beat a poor Oklama squad. The Sooners are in a total down year and controlled that game for 30 plus minutes.

It's asking way too much for the 'Horns to win this game and that is what it almost takes in order for them to cover.

All about da Bears!



Similar here as above with Villanova. The Wildcats at home are explosive and dangerous as all heck. Scottie Reynolds leads a team that boasts a very high ceiling. The Wildcats are well coached and are ultra deep and athletic. Jay Wright's team is probably one of about six that has a real chance of winning it all.

West Virginia can be scary at times as Butler is a stud but away from Morgantown makes them very vulnerable a lot of the time. This team can win games on the road but it just doesn't come as often and today are up against a 'Nova squad that is ready to bust out once again.

The Wildcats have not been all that in these last few games but most of them did come away from Philadelphia. Now back home should be just fine and get back to those winning ways.

Your "Bad Beat" for Tuesday is on:

Villanova (minus 4) at Cincinnati.

Let me first clarify that this number was 4 max and there were at times 3's and 3 1/2's out there. Also the game wound up pushing the four so it's not my best work ever but anybody who did lay the four with Jay Wright's Wildcats are a little perturbed.

The game was tied at the half but then Villanova exploded out of the gate in the second half eventually building a 66-51 lead with under six minutes to play. That lead should have been easy for Scottie Reynolds and the fellas to protect.

Or not.

The Bearcats went on a 15-0 run to get within one and after a ton of free throws in the last minute the game ended 77-73 Wildcats.

Cincinnati did miss a 30 foot three at the buzzer so it could have been a true bad beat but this is how the game ended.



Your winners for Wednesday are on:

4* Maryland (pk) vs. Duke.

3* Kansas State (plus 9 1/2) at Kansas.

A losing 1-1 Tuesday as Georgia Tech imploded in the second half.



Call me crazy but I am not sold on Duke. The Blue Devils don't have an inside presence, stop it with Brian Zoubek and Maryland has been phenomenal at home this season.

Coach K's team did win and cover in the first meeting but as always Duke is not the same team on the road as they are at Cameron. Those rims at home just seem to help the Duke shots go in, it's kind of crazy. Jon Scheyer can shoot the ball anywhere but I'm not so sure about the supporting cast.

Greivis Vasquez has been great this season and is coming off of that great game in Virginia Tech helping the Terrapins get within a game of Duke for the ACC title.

Revenge, at home, the better inside game and a few other factors make me all about the home Turtle today!



Kansas at home pretty much never loses and shouldn't lose tonight but Kansas State plays at too high of a level to ever not take a number such as this back. Clemente and Pullen are great shooters and great players.

Frank Martin may not have as deep of a squad as Kansas or a real big man that can counter Cole Aldrich but every single game the Wildcats have been competing and laying it all on the linre and I don't expect anything different today.

K State will need to weather an early storm because that is what happens with Bill Self's team at home but guard play cannot be belittled these days and if the three's go in for the visitors this game will come down to a last possession.

Your "Bad Beat" for Tuesday is on:

Lakers (over 198) at Memphis.

The Grizzlies led 81-76 after three quarters. This thing was on a clear cut over pace as only 42 points in the final period were needed to clear the over.

But then the teams went a bit cold on the offensive end and with the Grizz leading 98-96 in the waning seconds a Laker basket would mean overtime and a definite over. But no, Kobe did what he does best and nailed a three with right around four seconds remaining for the 99-98 late lead.

Memphis had a last chance to send it over but OJ Mayo could not score and this thing fell a point short of that over.



Your winners for Wednesday are on:

4* St. Louis (plus 4 1/2) vs. Xavier.

3* Memphis (minus 2) at Houston.

2* South Florida (plus 13) at Villanova.

A solid 1-1 Tuesday as the big 5* on Hofstra won outright as the 11 point dog!



All of a sudden Rick Majerus has put his stamp on this St. Louis program. The Billikens were pretty much always mediocre at best but right now these guys are pretty solid.

Xavier is still the better team of the two but St. Louis has won six in a row including home wins over Dayton and Rhode Island proving how this recent run is no fluke. Overall the Billikens are 18-8 and a great 9-3 in the Atlantic 10.

The Musketeers continue to beat teams and prove they are an elite squad in conference but laying points on the road is never a great strategy and to get the suddenly surging Billikens here plus this number is more than enough for me.



The days of John Calipari's Memphis Tigers are no more and Josh Pastner is no John Calipari but this price is cheap enough for me.

Memphis has lost twice this season in-conference which is unheard of but the talent level is still fairly high, not like years' past but still not bad at all. Houston is a good team but nothing more. Earlier in the season it appeared as if the Cougars were going to be very good but that has not at all come to fruition and even at home here are not ready to get over that hump and beat the Tigers.

This may not be a blowout like we have seen but Memphis is too good and it will show in the end.



Why not grab this number with Dominique Jones and the Bulls? South Florida is at the very least a competent team that has already won in Georgetown shocking the Hoyas. I don't see lightning striking twice for Stan Heath' gang but this Villanova team has not been the same team over the past few weeks and Jones is a special player who will score a ton of points today, as usual.

Scotty Reynolds is great and the rest of Jay Wright's team is very very good and very very deep but we have seen a few losses lately, including that last game at Pittsburgh and right now the confidence level is not where it was just a few short weeks ago. Throw in the fact that Syracuse is right around the corner making this a bit of a look ahead spot for the Wildcats.

Villanova is too good of a team to not win this game but South Florida is also an improving squad that should be a little perturbed after that bad home loss to St. John's.

I just don't see 'Nova running away with this thing!