Middle Earth

By the time you’re reading this, everything I have to tell you about what’s happening may be outdated. This machine is moving faster than anyone realized, or wanted. It’s not just the blazing instantsy of the Internet and television, folks: The moving parts spread from New Brunswick to the Rose Bowl are moving constantly and quickly, trying to prepare for the Armageddon that seems imminent.

Nebraska to the Big Ten. Six other Big 12 teams to the Pac-10. Television networks. Money money money. You know all the lingo, but you might not know exactly what has happened in the blur of just a few days. It’s not worth my time to sit here and write about what’s going to happen, because what’s going to happen could become what’s already happened before I finish this sentence. But I can tell you how this new era of college football – when it happens – happened:

Nebraska didn’t kill the Big 12. Right now, the spotlight is on Tom Osborne, that football coach turned politician turned athletic director turned Gordon Gekko stand-in. Nebraska and T.O. are getting all the attention and are likely going to be the first team to defect from the Big 12 Conference, but this wasn’t their idea. Nebraska is nothing more than the convenient scapegoat for all the parties objecting to the Big 12’s imminent break-up. The Huskers are only reacting to a situation that has become too likely, too threatening to their future as a major university, both academically and athletically.

Remember, it was Missouri that first got huffy over its place in the Big 12, with school administrators and even the state’s governor declaring interest in the Big Ten. According to unnamed sources, Nebraska isn’t even the first Big 12 school to receive an official invite from another conference – it’s still waiting to get asked to the dance while Colorado mulls over its future with an invite from the Pacific 10 Conference in hand. And depending on what the Big Ten’s motives are, five more Pac-10 invites could be headed to the Big 12 South schools, with Baylor being the unfortunate (but logical) odd man out. However, none of the schools mentioned – in fact, no school anywhere – is responsible for killing the Big 12. In fact, it wasn’t even a homicide.

The Big 12 killed the Big 12. Yes, that’s right – suicide. But why, you may ask, face quivering and rain-drenched. In a word, stupidity. In two words, poor leadership. First, the obvious: College football is all about money. It’s not about tailgating, school colors, Red Rivers, rivalries, NOTHING but money. And in the Big 12, that didn’t amount to much – only $7 million to $12 million in revenue share for the member schools. Revenue share, as its name suggests, is the money earned by the conference mainly through television contracts and distributed to all schools evenly.

Despite the excellent on-field product in the Big 12, the conference failed to generate that into big dollars for the member schools. Its television contracts were puny and outdated compared to what the SEC and Big Ten were doing. The Big Ten even put together its own television network to enjoy a larger piece of the television pie. The result? Big Ten schools split $22 million last year. That’s a tough figure for most schools to pass up, particularly if you’re coming from the Big 12. The Pac 10 isn’t doing any better, averaging $8 million to $10 million in revenue share each year, but the addition of anywhere from two to six new schools could prompt the Pac-10 to put together its own television network, which would increase revenue significantly – as would the creation of a conference championship game.

If the Big 12 could have done this, things might have turned out all right, but a Big 12 Network was never a realistic possibility. More likely, though still in its dream stages, was Texas’ interest in creating its own Texas Sports Network, creating enormous earnings for one school while cutting out the other 11 schools. If you’re the most valuable school in terms of bringing money into the conference, that’s a great idea. If you’re everyone else, you hate that idea. And you hate more that there’s no alternative, a la a Big 12 Network. And you look over the fence and see everyone else driving nice new cars, and you realize the direction your neighborhood’s headed.

So Nebraska and all these other schools want to get more money? Yes. Wouldn’t you? But it’s not just the money. In the case of Nebraska, it’s the opportunity to align itself with respected

academic universities – schools with higher academic profiles than those in the Big 12. That improves the complexion of the school, which can lead to an increase in research funds and grants – also called money. And before you ask why money matters, let me pull out a tissue and prepare to console you when I wake you out of your utopian daydream: These schools are businesses, the kind that juggle hundreds of millions of dollars – sometimes billion – in an effort to stay afloat, academically relevant and financially secure. They’re not about to act out of emotion, and any time it seems like they do, it’s only because there is financial incentive to do so.

Why is Nebraska at the center of all this? People in Nebraska are wondering the same thing. After all, Osborne’s stance has never swayed away from taking the wait-and-see approach. In essence, every school and conference involved is watching Nebraska because they’re the wanted piece: The Big Ten wants the Huskers, and even the Pac-10 wouldn’t mind taking a run at them if some of its top options fell through.

Nebraska is a well-run money machine. The athletic department doesn’t use any tuition funds or money from the academic side to stay afloat – in fact, they end up giving money to the academic side of things. The school has a huge fan base that will generate income for whatever conference it belongs to. It’s important to remember that in a revenue-share system, it’s pointless to bring in a school that doesn’t make enough money to account for itself and then some – if Nebraska were going to come into the Big Ten and draw money away from the other schools, no one would support it. But with the Big Ten Network and the massive national fan base, Nebraska will flourish -- much more so than a school like Missouri – and all the schools will reap the benefits.

Unfortunately for the Big 12, Nebraska is also a significant pillar in that conference. Losing Nebraska also means losing prestige and dollars. The Big 12 North becomes a wasteland of schools that don’t have much to offer the conference economically. And rather than risk money lost in a post-Nebraska Big 12, any school that gets the chance is likely going to jump over to a more stable conference.

Why now? Why not wait and try to fix the Big 12, and see if it works? It’s a noble idea, and it has some legs. But no school trusts the others enough to do that. If one school goes, it will start a domino effect that will destroy the Big 12. Furthermore, the offers from other conferences are coming in now, not a few years down the road when efforts to fix the Big 12 fail. The opportunity to find a new home may not be available later. If you’re Nebraska, you also have to consider that if you say no now, another school may accept the invitation originally offered to you. If the ship starts to come apart, the Huskers may not have a soft spot to land. And I would bet you anything that all the schools begging, pleading and chastising Nebraska to stay in the Big 12 – if they were in the Huskers’ position, they would leave the Big 12. It’s the only safe thing to do.

What happens to the other schools? If Nebraska moves to the Big Ten and six other schools join the Pac-10, the prospects for the schools left out will be grim. Missouri may end up getting a Big Ten bid, but it is not being given serious consideration at the moment. Kansas has a great profile for the Big Ten, with a powerhouse basketball team and a great reputation, but its football program is behind the times business-wise, and the school has committed to sticking with in-state rival Kansas State. Iowa State is in a dire situation and may have to lobby for a spot in the Mid-America Conference or possibly the Mountain West, where Kansas State and Kansas are most likely to land. Baylor is geographically closest to the Conference USA, but its Texas locale may be of interest to the Mountain West.

And then, there’s the chance that the leftover Big 12 teams could patch together a new conference, plucking teams from the smaller conferences interested in better television coverage and an automatic bid. It’s not impossible, but it won’t resemble the old Big 12 in any way.

Doesn't this seem to be very hastily done? Aren't there any risks involved? There are risks with anything. Unfortunately, this train seems to be moving so fast, not many people seem to understand the risks, or even know they exist. One potential scenario is that the Internal Revenue Service, which has played nice with college football conferences, giving them federal tax deductions due to their collegiate sport status. But this blatant moneygrab could push lawmakers to reconsider that break and cost the schools millions of dollars each year. You can bet that politicians in the states where schools are shut out of the BCS landscape - Kansas and Iowa are both likely - lawmakers will pull out the stops trying to save the universities, whether it's killing the tax deduction or pursuing antitrust law violations on the parts of the BCS conferences.

When can I expect the realignment to happen? You just spent the last 10 minutes reading. For all you know, it’s already happened.

Do you find yourself waking up in the middle of the night laughing hysterically about any of this? Yes.

What, then? That’s easy! Missouri and its tough guy impersonation. Le Tigres thought they were all tough talking about how they wanted out of the Big 12, thinking that widespread boot-quaking would ensue. Instead, their northern nemesis – the one that continually shot down the opportunity to state its interest in leaving the Big 12 – gets the invitation that Missouri so desperately coveted. The Tigers may come out alright if the Big Ten decides to invite them, but I imagine it’s tough to sleep at night if you’re a Tigers fan. The lesson to be learned: When you talk out of your butt, sometimes you bite yourself in the ass.

There's no time like the bowl season to break out the nostalgia and take a look back at the last decade. Big 12 football has gone through a shift in power from the start of the decade -- when Nebraska and Colorado were contenders for a national championship in 2000 -- to the end, when three Big 12 South Division teams were at one point ranked in the Top 5 nationally and Big 12 South teams closed out the decade with two straight national title berths.

Between all that, there was a lot worth remembering, even if it's painful. Here's your quick rundown of the Decade in Big 12 Football:

Team of the Decade: This one goes to Oklahoma. Texas fans might disagree, clinging to its national championship in 2005, its berth in 2009 and Vince Young's historic season. Impressive as that is, Oklahoma tied them in national championships, earned four total title game appearances, won two Heismans to UT's none and collected four straight Big 12 championships. Texas didn't hold a flame to the Sooners.

Top Candidate for Conference Dismissal: Baylor. Hard as I may cheer for the Bears, they haven't done much in the decade, and they've always been undersized.

Greatest Offensive Player: Vince Young. His struggles early in his career benefited him at the end, as he closed out four years at Texas by rushing for 200 yards and defeating favored USC for the national championship.

Greatest Defensive Player: Ndamukong Suh. Nebraska's dominant defensive lineman broke through offensive lines and barriers all season, winning the Bednarik, Nagurski, Outland and Lombardi trophies while becoming just the 15th defensive player to be named a finalist for the Heisman. Earlier this week, he became the first defensive player ever named the Associated Press Player of the Year.

Greatest Upset: In 2003, Kansas State won the North Division and the right to be Oklahoma's stepping stool to a national championship game. The day of the game, numerous newspapers across the country featured articles discussing the Sooners' merits as potentially the best football team in the history of college football for its dominance throughout the regular season. Oklahoma scored a quick seven points against Kansas State, and that was the end of it: The Wildcats scored 35 straight, routing OU and claiming their first Big 12 Championship.

Worst Athletic Director Move: I couldn't cut this any other way than a tie: Steve Pederson's firing of Nebraska's Frank Solich in 2003 and Tim Weiser's hiring of Kansas State's Ron Prince in 2005. Solich's canning came one day after wrapping up a 9-3 season with a revamped coaching staff that seemed built to return Nebraska for glory. It was the first major move in Pederson's long-term abortion of Nebraska's tradition, which ended after he was fired in October 2007. Weiser's folly was hiring a man completely different from the one he was replacing, former Kansas State coach and program architect Bill Snyder. Prince struggled through an abysmal era, gutting the program of its prestige and the values that Snyder used to turn it into a winner. He tied the record for shortest-tenured coach in Big 12 history at three years.

Best Speech: Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy's "I'm a man! I'm 40!" speech earned him YouTube fame, but it also served him well in the recruiting aspect of coaching. Every player wants to play for a guy that stands up for his players. People will remember that speech for years.

One-hit wonder: Kansas, circa 2007. That team went 12-1, claiming an Orange bowl victory. Two years later, their coach was fired after a six-game losing streak sent them home for the bowl season. Outside of 2007, the Jayhawks' record boasts gratuitous amounts of mediocrity, sprinkled with awfulness.

Biggest Recruiting Bust: Every team has a handful, but I'm going to go with Nebraska's Harrison Beck, once an Elite 11 quarterback turned transfer to North Carolina State. He languished behind the Huskers' Zac Taylor, who earned Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year awards in 2006, while trying to progress as a budding punk rocker (so the story goes).

Best Trick Play: Black 41 Flash Pass Reverse, otherwise known as the touchdown pass thrown to Nebraska quarterback Eric Crouch in the Huskers' 20-10 victory over Oklahoma in 2001. The catch was the biggest play of the game and a boost of momentum to Crouch's Heisman bid, which he ultimately won. It also kept Nebraska undefeated en route to an 11-0 start and national championship game berth.

Top Off-the-Field Moment: Colorado's fallout. With Katie Hnida kicking field goals, half a dozen rape accusations and the discovery of recruits being bribed with sex and alcohol, the Buffs had more drama than General Hospital. I'll be surprised if the next decade can provide something to top that.

If you watched the Big 12 Championship Game on Saturday, you watched a classic. You don't see many games where both teams storm the field to celebrate victory. And amid all the excitement, confusion and disbelief the game provided, we learned a lot about both teams (and a little bit about college football). The rundown:

Ndamukong Suh is the best player in the college football. That will have to be enough to satisfy him and his fans, since he won't win the Heisman. But his incredible performance against Texas (which Brent Musburger called the greatest he'd ever seen) has at least earned him support, and a trip to the Heisman Trophy ceremony isn't out of the question.

Cincinnati was one second from playing in the national championship. They may be from the Big East, but the Bearcats get respect like they play in the MWC. Playing for the championship would have been a great opportunity to further prove the increasingly parity of college football. Instead, we got yet another awkward marriage, brought to you by the BCS.

This game's finish was a bone-chilling reincarnation of the 1994 Orange Bowl. Picture this: Nebraska scores and takes a late fourth-quarter lead against a team it has no business competing with. It drives the kickoff out-of-bounds, then pitches in another defensive penalty to set up the favored team for a game-winning field goal. Which game am I talking about? Both. The way Nebraska's 2009 loss to Texas mirrors its 18-16 loss to Florida State more than 15 years ago can mean only one thing: There is a God, and He has a sense of humor. The good news for Nebraska: After that loss, the program went 49-2 and won three national championships in four years.

Colt McCoy was about as nervous and skittish as a punted kitten. Who could blame him? He was sacked nine times and tossed three interceptions, and he very nearly lost the game for his team by extending his final snap almost until the clock expired (technically it did, but was resuscitated upon further review). He spent most of his time on the sidelines holding his head in his hands and spent most of his time in the pocket running out of it and away from Nebraska's mammoth defensive line. Was there ever a moment when McCoy's feet were planted behind center and he wasn't hurried by pressure coming at him from all directions? Ask him in 10 years: This will go down as the most flustered performance of his career.

Adi Kunalic's net contribution to Nebraska is officially and forever negative. No amount of touchbacks can make up for kicking the ball out-of-bounds on a kickoff with less than two minutes left. Without that penalty, there's no way Texas scores and wins the game. Kunalic's error gave Texas the ball at the 40-yard line, which was almost all the help Texas needed to get itself into field goal range. Why do I say almost? Well ...

Larry Asante has a one-personal-foul-per-game quota to fill. His horsecollar of Jordan Shipley after a catch moved the Longhorns another 15 yards down the field, putting them in field-goal range. Had Larry Asante simply sat on the ground and cried, another Husker defender would have grabbed Shipley after another two or three yards. "The Assassin" picked up where Kunalic left off, completing the screw job.

The Longhorns' offense is one-dimensional against formidable defenses. Colt McCoy is UT's rushing leader this season. Except for a few timely quarterback draws, that facet of offense was lacking -- and Nebraska was only bringing four defenders into the backfield on most plays. I don't see how McCoy can light it up through the air against any team that drops back six defenders, much less seven, and I don't see why Alabama would have any reason not to drop back and swarm the Texas receivers in coverage.

Nebraska will be a powerhouse soon enough. The Huskers have got all the right components, the most important being a stable, swarming defense. If you look around college football, all the great programs of the moment have great defenses. Great teams might get by with great offenses (Missouri had its moments in the past; same with Kansas; and Texas Tech has always knocked at the threshold) but great programs are built on defense. Nebraska's offense could be worse, sure, but it could be a lot better. A friend pointed out that if Nebraska's offense from 2008 had taken the field with this year's defense, that team would be in the national championship game. No truer words have been spoken.

Texas will lose to Alabama. The Horns have been far short of amazing this season, and Alabama is too strong all-around.

The Big 12 Championship Game is the capstone to a great day of BCS-busting games. But those expecting a blowout should think twice: Texas is the favorite, but Nebraska's defense is unlikely to let the Longhorns run up the score. Given that Texas should win this game nine times out of 10, here's a quick look at what the Huskers need to do to win:

Run the ball. Stay away from the conservative passing game that's plagued them offensively. They've won two games with time-consuming running drives that moved the ball and led to a touchdown. If they can run the ball well when teams know it's coming, they should be able to get some sort of production while controlling the game clock and limiting quarterback Zac Lee's opportunities for error.

Test the ball deep. They've got to stretch the field, something they've struggled to do in several games. I see Nebraska's offense being successful if it puts together three scoring drives, so most of its offensive work is going to be testing the Longhorns' defense and building toward future drives. It's going to be a frustrating and slow day for Nebraska. But what they're really needing to do is slowly chip away at the Longhorns' defense so that they can unravel it and find the end zone. With their defense, the Huskers don't need to get 30 to win. They could probably do it with less than 20.

Drop seven. Colt McCoy is UT's biggest running threat, but using some heavy zones could isolate him even if he gets outside the pocket and force him to throw into a thick secondary. If he's working too well with just four coming at him, you can always blitz the long side of the field. The idea is that Nebraska's excellent defensive line will be able to win a matchup with Texas' offensive line, letting them get more bodies into the secondary.

And just to play it different this week, here's a score prediction:

17-10, Texas wins.

2009 ALL-BIG 12 FOOTBALL INDIVIDUAL AWARDS

Coach of the Year Mack Brown, Texas

Offensive Lineman of the Year Russell Okung, Oklahoma State

Defensive Lineman of the Year Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska

Offensive Freshman of the Year Christine Michael, Texas A&M

Defensive Freshman of the Year Aldon Smith, Missouri

Special Teams Player of the Year Brandon Banks, Kansas State

Defensive Newcomer of the Year David Sims, Iowa State

Offensive Newcomer of the Year Daniel Thomas, Kansas State

Defensive Player of the Year Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska

Offensive Player of the Year Colt McCoy, Texas

2009 ALL-BIG 12 FOOTBALL FIRST TEAM

Offense

Pos. Player School Class

QB Colt McCoy Texas Sr.

RB Daniel Thomas Kansas State Jr.

RB Keith Toston Oklahoma State Sr.

FB Bryant Ward Oklahoma State Jr.

WR Jordan Shipley Texas Sr.

WR Danario Alexander Missouri Sr.

WR Dezmon Briscoe Kansas Jr.

TE Jeron Mastrud Kansas State Sr.

OL Russell Okung Oklahoma State Sr.

OL Trent Williams Oklahoma Sr.

OL Nick Stringer Kansas State Sr.

OL Brandon Carter Texas Tech Sr.

OL Nate Solder Colorado Jr.

PK Grant Ressel Missouri So.

KR/PR Brandon Banks Kansas State Sr.

Defense

DL Ndamukong Suh Nebraska Sr.

DL Gerald McCoy Oklahoma Jr.

DL Von Miller Texas A&M Jr.

DL Brandon Sharpe Texas Tech Sr.

DL Jared Crick Nebraska So.

LB Sean Weatherspoon Missouri Sr.

LB Jesse Smith Iowa State Sr.

LB Travis Lewis Oklahoma So.

DB Earl Thomas Texas So.

DB Perrish Cox Oklahoma State Sr.

DB Dominique Franks Oklahoma Jr.

DB Prince Amukamara Nebraska Jr.

DB Larry Asante Nebraska Sr.

P Derek Epperson Baylor Jr.

What should we expect from Big 12 athletic directors this off-season? Or, better yet, will we see what we should see? Early on, it looks like most of the Big 12 offices mulling a firing of the head football coach are inclined to give it one more year; really, the two hot seats are Colorado and Kansas.

We've already heard that Colorado plans to give coach Dan Hawkins one more year. Maybe it does believe in Hawkins, and maybe there are signs of improvement. I think there might be, but I'm convinced of Colorado's fear of the buyout in Hawkins' contract more than I am its fear of ruining forward progress. In a recession, and at a school with a meager athletic fund, it's not surprising that Hawkins is coming back. Coach should be thanking the state of economics more than the grace of his athletic director, but he lives on regardless.

The verdict is still out on Mangino, but that doesn't mean Kansas isn't trying to get rid of him. It's more likely the Jayhawks are trying to find cause to fire him and save the school a boatload of money. Until the investigation of Mangino gets sorted out, you can expect him to remain head coach. The longer they wait to fire him, though, the tougher it will be to pull the trigger, knowing the potential ramifications such a move could have on the recruiting front.

This week: 4-1 overall, 4-1 Big 12

Overall: 69-26, 36-12 Big 12

Hits

Texas 49, Texas A&M 39: The Aggies made an impressive show of their battle with the Longhorns, but all it ended up doing was provide Texas QB Colt McCoy to have a signature Heisman performance.

Nebraska 28, Colorado 20: Nebraska didn't instill much faith that it can keep close to Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game this week, but it's hard to predict how the game should have gone given the pretenses leading up to it: Nebraska had won the Big 12 North, and Colorado had already solidified its losing season. Add on Colorado's decision to retain Hawkins regardless of the game result, and you have a perfect storm of disinterest.

Oklahoma 27, Oklahoma State 0: I'll tell you what, only the loosest gambler would ever make a wager in an Oklahoma State football game. Even if you picked Oklahoma to win, no one with a brain would have predicted a shutout. But hey, that's OSU football: They have no idea who they are.

Texas Tech 20, Baylor 13: Baylor kept it close with some impressive defense, and it's too bad its late drive to tie the game stalled. Both teams had impressive moments this season, but I doubt you'd find many people aligned with either school that was happy with the season results.

Misses

Missouri 41, Kansas 39: If Mark Mangino remains the head coach at Kansas, that school doesn't deserve a good football team. Forget the Orange Bowl win a few years back. The Jayhawks just missed a bowl trip with the best quarterback in school history (Todd Reesing), two of the best receivers in school history (Desmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier) and a defense that was supposed to be revamped and respectable. There's no upside to this program. And now Mangino looks like an overweight, angry man that eats players' self-esteems for lunch (with a side of Crisco). I realize firing Mangino means you're basically saying the forward movement the program made was an illusion. But let's take the body of work for what it is. Mangino brought the Jayhawks to heaven and back to hell. Tell him thanks for the honeymoon, and send him on his way.

The last week of the Big 12 regular season is coming to a close, but few teams have anything worth playing for. The division championships have already been decided, and only Kansas is playing for a bowl berth. There's always rankings and prestige, but it's tough to predict what will motivate teams -- or if nothing will.

Typically, the highest entertainment value from these final games is the rivalries (of which most games this weekend are) and the potential for firings. Obscured by the media cloud hovering above Charlie Weis, there are a couple different Big 12 coaches sitting squarely on the hot seat, and at least a couple more headed that way if they repeat this season's success in 2010.

The picks:

Texas at Texas A&M: It's the last regular-season hurdle for Texas. But the Longhorns just seem too aware of themselves and the opportunity ahead of them to blow it against the Aggies. Plus, do you see coach Mike Sherman having the skill set to lead A&M in an upset of Texas? It's not that he's a bad coach -- it's that he's a bad college coach. But the ineffective pro-ball mentality will get at least one more season to reign in Aggieland, no matter how badly they lose this game.

Nebraska at Colorado: Last year, NU's Alex Henery booted a 57-yarder that gave Nebraska the lead late in the fourth quarter. It was this game that the Huskers regained the swagger they had been missing for the past half-decade -- they weren't back, but they put on a charmed performance that carries good programs to wins and bad programs to sucker-punch losses. This is always a great game and often hard to predict, but let's say Nebraska.

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma: You're telling me that if Oklahoma loses this game, it ends the season 6-6? No way. I just can't fathom that happening at the hands of its in-state rival. Plus, OSU tends to be unreliable. It seems like a trap game for the Cowboys, and besides, I pick the favorite too often. So it's Oklahoma.

Kansas at Missouri: Two years ago, both Mark Mangino and Gary Pinkel were candidates for national coach of the year. Now, KU is trying to find a way to get Mangino fired, and Pinkel has fallen out of favor in Missouri, although he won't be going anywhere this year. But I guarantee you, the Kansas athletic department is trying to find a way to can Mangino over his alleged verbal abuse of players. Why, you ask? It's all about the Benjamins: If they fire him for being awful, he gets around a $6.6 million buyout. If they have cause, he's on the street without a dollar's worth of severance. It doesn't help that he and athletic director Lew Perkins don't get along.

Baylor at Texas Tech: Overall, Tech's season has gone better than many would have expected. Its big win over Oklahoma exercised some demons, and with a win over Baylor it'll hit eight wins. You can't say it was a failed season for Baylor -- even when the quarterback position imploded, the Bears still managed four wins and proved they've got a respectable defense and solid prospects for the future. If Robert Griffin's behind center for the entire season next year, they'll make a bowl game. For now, they're limping (admirably) to the finish.

Not that there's a whole lot to get distracted from, but news of a probe into Kansas coach Mark Mangino's coaching habits has fully eclipsed the bulk of games on the Big 12 slate (pun slightly intended). Amid a five-game losing streak, stories have surfaced of Mangino verbally abusing athletes and hitting them in the chest and shoulder pads. The philosophy behind the actions, according to several players speaking out on the subject, is that Mangino aims to break his players down in order to build them back up stronger, and to motivate through anger.

Some definitely seem motivated by their anger, but not in the way he'd hoped. Now Mangino has to scrape and claw to get his Jayhawks bowl eligible while wondering if he'll have a job at the end of this probe.

If KU has grown tired of Mangino, this could be a convenient means to an end. It seems like Mangino has a hairy situation even if he doesn't leave -- recruits generally don't want to go play football so they can be humiliated and attacked.

I don't have any insider knowledge of the situation. But I do have YouTube to help me draw my conclusion, which is that the claims aren't far from the truth:





The picks:

Colorado at Oklahoma State (Thursday): I can't easily articulate why, but Oklahoma State's games so often fail to intrigue me. It's not that the Cowboys aren't a good team with an explosive offense and a bright future. It's just that until I see them make a leap toward the elite level, they're just a good team that isn't living up to what it could be. They had me after the Georgia game, but lost me against Houston the following week. Even a crushing win over Colorado won't make them easier to love, although beating Oklahoma next week will.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech: If Texas Tech ever wanted to exact revenge on Oklahoma for ruining its perfect season last year, opportunities like this only come once every few years. But when you look at Oklahoma's losses this season, all of them have been at the hands of capable, if not excellent, defense. The Sooners also have a penchant for muzzling the Red Raiders, and unless Steven Sheffield plays the whole game and throws close to 500 yards, I think Oklahoma escapes.

Iowa State at Missouri: Easily the toughest game to call this week. Do you go with the team that has more talent and, on paper, should win, or the team that has proven it knows how to win and continues to improve? The thing about Iowa State is that it has played consistently on the road. In the Big 12 North the Cyclones won at Nebraska and lost to Kansas State and Kansas by a combined six points. And it seems like confidence has been one of the bigger hurdles this team has faced this year, and they've continually cleared it. So let's say seven wins for the Cyclones.

Baylor at Texas A&M: Texas A&M can become bowl eligible with a win, and you should expect that to happen. The Aggies are still a pretty shoddy team, and you would be wise to note that I would definitely pick Baylor if they still had their starting quarterback. But if Baylor pushes the Aggies, I won't be surprised. Even with a plague of injuries, this program's better now than it has been in past years.

Kansas State at Nebraska: The Big 12 North Championship game is a throwback to a decade ago, when Kansas State was coming into its prime and forcing its games with Nebraska into nationally-televised contests. It's great to see this game have meaning again, even if it doesn't have the national title implications of the past. Nebraska will win with defense and give itself a shot at Texas in the Big 12 title game.

Kansas at Texas: This was a good week for all the Mangino buzz to come out. With or without it, the Jayhawks would be losing this game. That'll be six straight losses. But hey, at least this bad news didn't come out in 2007 during Kansas' mid-Orange Bowl run. Back then, Mangino was the hottest item on the meet rack. After two sub-par seasons, he doesn't exactly have a wellspring of support.

Oklahoma's fallen far from where it was, and Texas could very well end the season as the consensus national champion. And let's not forget, Iowa State isn't even the sole surprise in its own division -- Kansas State had equally grim expectations and has out-performed the Cyclones to this point, including winning head-to-head (by virtue of a missed PAT). But I don't think anyone in America saw the Cyclones coming. It's bad news for the Big 12 Conference that Paul Rhoads can make a bowl game with a team of misfits, and even worse news that he's got a promising freshman quarterback who can run and throw.

In a season where Kansas and Missouri were supposed to bounce back from down years, they're playing the way Kansas State and Iowa State were supposed to. Where the Cyclones end up in the postseason is irrelevant. The fact that they've made it there is a borderline miracle. And you think I'm exaggerating, but I'm not. Rhoads inherited a team that had won five games the past two years and hadn't won six games in a season since 2005.

I would be surprised if the Cyclones weren't perennial bowl teams now, particularly considering the improvement Rhoads can be expected to make in recruiting. It's further proof that a lot of times, it's not the school or the players that can't win games, it's the coach.

This week: 5-1 overall, 5-1 Big 12

Overall: 60-24, 27-10 Big 12

Hits

Oklahoma State 24, Texas Tech 17: It played out with less insanity than I'd expected, but OSU wins, surprisingly, thanks to its defense. What I fail to understand is why Tech started Potts, and why they've ever played Potts. His performance this season hasn't compared to that of quarterback Steven Sheffield.

Oklahoma 65, Texas A&M 10: Maybe in the wake of a 55-point rout isn't the best time to bring this up, but Oklahoma definitely does not look like a team two stars from a national champion. The Sooners look more like a middling team that is great against lesser competition but doesn't know how to win when it gets hit in the mouth. Good thing the Aggies are a good half-decade removed from being able to land a punch.

Nebraska 31, Kansas 17: Maybe Nebraska's offense is starting to get back to normal. On the other side of the field, Kansas is in completely disarray, losing five straight games while a probe of coach Mark Mangino's potentially-inappropriate conduct in practice surfaces. Could things be worse in Kansas?

Iowa State 17, Colorado 10: I won't rehash it, but what a great job by Iowa State. Now, Colorado, that's a different beast. Dan Hawkins has clearly lost control of his crew. His team's talent far exceeds its results, and Hawkins has struck out in motivational tactics since coming to Colorado from Boise State. In college football, that's a fatal error.

Texas 47, Baylor 14: Colt McCoy tied the mark for most victories by a major-college quarterback, and he needed less than 200 passing yards to do it. Now he has to keep his team awake for the next month, because the Longhorns will have a rude awakening if they get caught daydreaming of the BCS Title Game.

Misses

Missouri 38, Kansas State 12: Don't think this takes MU coach Gary Pinkel off the hot seat. The Tigers still have two losable games ahead of them. Still, Missouri seemed to exorcise some demons on both sides of the ball in a win that brought bowl-eligibility weeks later than they'd hoped or expected.

The big talk in Missouri this off-season was that the team wasn't in rebuilding mode -- it was in reloading mode. This was the year where questions plagued Missouri's roster, but Gary Pinkel made a passionate case that this team wouldn't lose a beat, it just wouldn't be the same team. Maybe the offense didn't have Chase Daniel or Jeremy Maclin, but it did have Blaine Gabbert and Danario Alexander, not to mention an experienced defense that was supposed to pick up any slack the offense couldn't handle.

Well, that assessment proved to be grossly misguided in almost every way. It turns out Gabbert, for all his efforts in the off-season to prepare himself to fully fill out Daniel's shoes, is not as a sophomore what Daniel was as a senior. The Tigers' passing yards per game has dropped to 276 yards from 330 yards in 2008. For a number of reasons, the less threatening passing game being one of them, the running game also dropped off sharply this season, from 154 yards per contest to 111.

The result is a steep drop in scoring offense from 42.2 points per game in 2008 to 27.9 in 2009. Two fewer touchdowns a game is a tremendous drop-off, and it's taking its toll.

Then there's the defense, which for all its lauding and praise has only improved marginally, from 27.2 points per game to 24.4, a jump in the national rankings from 69 to 63. Is it pessimistic for me to say that's not making much of a difference in the box score?

Missouri is in the midst of what looked in the preseason like its cakewalk portion of the Big 12 schedule, with games against Colorado, Baylor, Kansas State and Iowa State all strung together. But the Tigers gave up 40 points to a famously-inept Baylor program playing its third-string quarterback, and now they face a Kansas State team trying to stake its claim to surprise team in the nation.

So it turns out the Tigers are who we thought they were -- a program with potential, but not an annual player. I wonder how long they'll give Pinkel to prove strong seasons can come consistently -- and let's remember his track record for producing underwhelming seasons. Prior to 2007, all of the Tigers' records under Pinkel were a disappointment. Even 2008, when they went 10-4, was a letdown after their preseason national title hopes.

I'm not holding my breath. I don't think Pinkel can lead Missouri where it wants to go.

The picks:

Texas at Baylor: I think if Baylor can score seven and hold Texas under 40, it should go down as a moral victory. But then again, who knows? Bears quarterback Nick Florence seems to be getting more comfortable in the pocket and getting more production out of his unit. Maybe they can squeeze a quarter or two of intrigue out of this one.

Missouri at Kansas State: The Karma Gods say Missouri, which has excelled at catching the wrong team at the wrong time, would knock off Kansas State, which has had everything go its way as of late. And while I'm tempted to pick Missouri, I just wrote seven paragraphs blasting almost every aspect of the Tigers' football program and issuing a vote of no confidence in their coach. So consider this an obligatory pick against Missouri rather than for Kansas State.

Colorado at Iowa State: I would enjoy watching this game between two programs headed in opposite directions. I think Colorado could pull it out, because it has had shown some surprising fight recently, and perhaps its mathematically-alive hopes of making a bowl game are fueling the Buffs in this last leg of the regular season. But at home, with the better coach, I'm going with the Cyclones for the win and the bowl eligibility. That's right, Cyclones fans! Book your flights for Shreveport!

Nebraska at Kansas: Is Nebraska's offense worse than Kansas' defense? I'm guessing it is. And I'm guessing you'll see both quarterbacks on Saturday trying to create something, anything on the offensive end. Luckily, Nebraska's defense is not only far superior to Kansas' offense, it's also the best in the country, and debate is almost futile. Go find another defense out there playing alongside an offense that can't even muster 40 passing yards in a game -- find that defense and ask them if they can hold Oklahoma to just three points for an entire game. Only the Blackshirts. They're why Nebraska wins.

Texas A&M at Oklahoma: So every other week, Landry Jones is labeled either the second coming of Sam Bradford or complete garbage. He was complete garbage last week, but I'm guessing A&M makes him look more like a Heisman winner. Sooners win.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State: Another interesting game. These teams usually have wild games between them, often shootouts. Texas Tech has been a stumbling block for Oklahoma State, but I think the Cowboys will finish the year second in the Big 12 South, and a big step towards that goal is by beating Tech this weekend.

Oklahoma's visit to Nebraska represented the top two defenses in the country taking on offenses with more than their fair share of offensive struggles. The Sooners' issues are well-documented: the careers of Sam Bradford and tight end Jermaine Gresham were prematurely ended by injuries, putting a freshman quarterback behind a sub-par offensive line. Nebraska's woes are largely from a tactical point of view -- they haven't settled on a starting quarterback because neither is able to move the ball down the field, though that assignment has grown tougher as the season has progressively neutered the running game. First Quentin Castille was dismissed for failing his fifth drug test, and then Roy Helu Jr., probably their best offensive weapon, is hampered by a shoulder injury that's reduced his effectiveness and caused him to miss snaps.

So there shouldn't be much surprise that the game was low-scoring, a 10-3 Nebraska win, given their offensive reputations. Oklahoma finished first nationally in scoring last season, averaging more than 51 points per game. The Huskers scored 35.4 points per game and were ranked 25th nationally.

The game was also significant in regards to the disparity between the Big 12 North and South Divisions. Nebraska's win was the first time since 2007 a Big 12 North team beat Oklahoma, and the first Nebraska win over the Sooners since 2001, when Eric Crouch caught a touchdown pass on his way to a 20-10 win and a Heisman.

It's a down year for Oklahoma, but if the North wants to rebuild its reputation, games like this must be won. Nebraska can rest easy, now that it has a signature win under coach Bo Pelini.

This week: 3-3 overall, 2-3 Big 12

Overall: 55-23, 22-9 Big 12

Hits

Oklahoma State 34, Iowa State 8: Keith Toston is a nice storyline in the Big 12. The senior got his chance to start after running back Kendall Hunter went down injured in the second game of the season. He had his day in the sun against the Cyclones, rushing for 206 yards and three touchdowns.

Kansas State 17, Kansas 10: Manhattan and Lawrence are only a few hours apart, but they might as well be at the North and South poles. You'd think they're cashing each other's checks every weekend, with the Wildcats soaking up all the success the Jayhawks were supposed to have and KU wallowing in KSU's shoulda-been failure. Back to the same old mantra for Kansas: When does basketball start?

Texas 35, Central Florida 3: I can't help but feel that a game against Central Florida after a schedule featuring Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech has to feel like a vacation. I doubt Jordan Shipley would disagree. The wide receiver decimated the school record for receiving yards in a game, finishing with 273.

Misses

Nebraska 10, Oklahoma 3: How many teams can upset a ranked team with only 39 passing yards and seven first downs? About as many as can boast the top defense in the nation. Nebraska's offense was completely inept, but it took care of the ball and did what it needed to win. Best stat: The lone touchdown drive was one yard long.

Colorado 35, Texas A&M 34: There's just no telling what these teams will do. A&M had the win and was running away with it, but they tripped over themselves and let Colorado surge back for the win.

Baylor 40, Missouri 32: I can tell you Gary Pinkel's having trouble sleeping. This was supposed to be the Tigers' "let's get back on track" game. Instead, Baylor quarterback Nick Florence turned it into the "who's Robert Griffin?" show. Next up for Mizzou: Kansas State. Uh oh.

Depending on how things shake out, we could see 10 bowl-eligible teams in the Big 12 this year. Texas, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have already reached or passed the six-win mark needed for bowl eligibility, while seven teams enter this weekend with five wins.

It's a particularly big week in the Big 12 North, where all six teams are within one loss of each other and the majority have significant challenges this weekend. The Big 12 South is less dynamic, with Tech off, Texas playing a non-conference game and the other four teams taking on North Division foes.

The picks:

Central Florida at Texas: My favorite part of this game is that it's playing second fiddle to Marcus Jordan's shoes on the Florida sports pages. Will Air Jordan provide signature football cleats for the game? Doubtful, though it wouldn't make a difference in a Texas romp.

Kansas at Kansas State: It's a huge game, in my mind -- as significant as Oklahoma-Texas. Why? Kansas State can run its mark to 4-2 and bury overrated Kansas at 1-4 in conference play with a win. That, with a Nebraska loss to Oklahoma, would give Kansas State a huge lead in the Big 12 North race. This team's gotten better all season, and I think the energy in Manhattan is going to be at a new level for a lot of the players. Wildcats win.

Texas A&M at Colorado: The division models for inconsistency meet in this game, but there's no way Jerrod Johnson is going to succumb to Colorado, even if they come out of the gate like Gerald Ford in a potato sack race.

Baylor at Missouri: The Tigers have to approach every game as a must-win to salvage any of their goals for the season. Baylor comes at a good time. The Bears play respectably against a Nebraska offense that's coming apart at the hinges, but they won't be so lucky this time.

Oklahoma State at Iowa State: The bigger story is that they refused to let Dez Bryant return this season. Just another reason to hate the NCAA's politics. Honestly, for all the great things college football has done for itself in its ascension to the top tier of popular sports, the NCAA sure knows how to kick the sport in the nuts. Cowboys win.

Oklahoma at Nebraska: A friend said it best: Nebraska's defense will play well, but they're going to get exhausted when all the Husker offense can manage is three-and-outs for the whole game. We don't even know Nebraska's starting quarterback this game, so it's hard to know how they will come out, but like the last month of Nebraska football you should expect a slow grind that wears the Blackshirts out. By the end of the third, Oklahoma will probably look like a runaway train. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt I am.

There was no question whose game it was to win or lose last Saturday between Texas and Oklahoma State. Colt McCoy was the man of the hour, the one with Heisman and BCS Title hopes resting squarely on his performance. And after a 41-14 victory -- after he passed, ran, and led his team to not just a win, but a convincing one -- there's no doubt that McCoy is a Heisman front-runner entering the all-important November.

It's too early to pencil Texas into the BCS Title Game, but if any team has a clear path to an undefeated season, it's the Longhorns. Their regular-season schedule is filled with heavy underdogs, and the conference title game probably won't present much of a challenge the way it could decide the conference title game representative in the SEC. On second thought, pencils come with erasers. Go ahead and put down Texas in this year's national championship game.

This week: 6-0 overall, 6-0 Big 12

Overall: 52-20, 20-6 Big 12

Hits

Texas A&M 35, Iowa State 10: Texas A&M gets a win it badly needed and does so in style. The Aggies surpassed 500 offensive yards and played an efficient game that kept their punter out of the game. The Cyclones did fine for their part, given who and what they are. Both teams are just one game from bowl eligibility.

Texas Tech 42, Kansas 21: The Jayhawks tried to give Tech a run for their money, even taking a quick lead in the game, but the Red Raiders put it together with enough time to amass 42 on Kansas. Pretty good for an offense undergoing some rare struggles, even if it came against an overrated defense.

Oklahoma 42, Kansas State 30: If you're Kansas State, you've got to be happy about the way it battled, falling behind by 21 early but clawing back to within five points in the second half. If you're Oklahoma, you take the win over an upstart team that habitually plays you close, and you breathe easy. Because the way things are going in Manhattan, games against the silver-and-purple are only going to get tougher.

Texas 41, Oklahoma State 14: Texas should spend the next few games working on its running game. It's dangerously one-dimensional. As great a player as McCoy is, if he's the leading rusher with 34 yards, top teams -- say Florida or Alabama -- will find a way to neutralize the passing game, and the offense with it.

Missouri 36, Colorado 17: The Tigers got back on the right track against Colorado, and the defense continued to show improvement over last year, forcing four turnovers and collecting eight sacks. The Buffs continued to look miserable, but there's a silver lining: If they kick it into high gear and get on a win streak, they might be able to hit the 10-win mark before October 2010.

Nebraska 20, Baylor 10: Cody Green's first start for Nebraska started fast, but the final three quarters of the game showed little departure from Nebraska's offensive struggles of the past few weeks. They need a healthy Roy Helu Jr. and to utilize Green's running skills. Credit to Jarred Crick, who set a Nebraska record with five sacks.

Texas has been far from exceptional while remaining undefeated this season, producing unimpressive wins that tempt voters to drop the Longhorns in the Associated Press rankings. Part of that can be credited to Colt McCoy, who has battled the flu and nagging injuries that have held him back for much of the season. Even so, this weekend might be the most realistic shot any team has at beating Texas prior to the national championship game. Oklahoma State is down Dez Bryant and won't have a fully healed Kendall Hunter, but it has a defense that can lock down when it commits itself and an offense that's as good as any.

Personal interests aside, there aren't many more compelling matchups in the Big 12 this weekend, unless you believe upstart Kansas State has a shot against Oklahoma. You're quite the optimist, if that's the case.

The picks:

Nebraska at Baylor: If Baylor hadn't lost Robert Griffin to injury, I'd pick Nebraska to lose this game. They're starting Zac Lee again, and Baylor's defense is good enough that if the Huskers continue to play out of sync, they'll get manhandled by the Bears. However, Nebraska also has an exceptional defense that won't give up much to Baylor's offense. Husker fans with high blood pressure should still consider taking the day off.

Missouri at Colorado: Talk about two teams that both need wins. Mizzou is winless in the Big 12, and the Buffs are 2-5 with almost no reason for optimism. But unlike Colorado, we've seen Missouri can play well, despite its record. Its conference schedule this far has been Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Texas. Expect the Tigers to find Colorado much easier.

Iowa State at Texas A&M: Iowa State's offense looks positioned to improve every week. It's still putting the pieces together. Meanwhile, the defense overachieves on a daily basis. And that win against Nebraska was big, but the Aggies don't have as many offensive problems as the Huskers did. They may get slowed but Jerrod Johnson won't be stopped. I'll pick A&M, but I'm rooting for Iowa State. Did you realize they're one win from bowl eligibility?

Kansas at Texas Tech: Texas Tech clearly needs solidarity at the quarterback position, and it is struggling this season. It's interesting, because Tech so rarely has quarterback problems. It comes down to whether the Red Raiders can be stable behind center. I think they will, and I don't think Kansas will be able to keep up.

Kansas State at Oklahoma: Bob Stoops and Bill Snyder always put on a good show. For that reason, I don't think this will be a blowout. And what a win it would be if the Wildcats could pull it out. It's just too much to ask of this young, confident Kansas State team. They've done well, but Oklahoma is a different beast than they've faced thus far.

Texas at Oklahoma State: This could be McCoy's Heisman performance, and it might have to be. Texas' offense has excelled at doing just enough to win, but it won't be able to hide in this game. Oklahoma State will get its points, and Texas will have to keep up. Expect the Longhorns to do so, but remember that the spotlight's on McCoy, now more than ever. It's his team, and his play will decide who wins.

Paul Rhoads probably knows his Iowa State team got lucky at Nebraska. But you can bet he doesn't care.

How bad is Iowa State? It's coming off a winless conference season in 2008, after which its touted coach left two years in, leaving an unapologetic mess in his wake.

And then comes Rhoads, who brought optimism, understanding and energy to the sideline. Suddenly, Iowa State knows how to play football.

Four games remain on the Cyclones' schedule. With one more win, they're bowl eligible and likely bowl-bound. They pushed Kansas to its limit. They beat Nebraska at its own game -- defensive fortitude. And maybe they needed a trick play to extend a drive that led to their only touchdown, and maybe Nebraska's eight turnovers were unprecedented, but it doesn't matter.

Iowa State isn't an easy place to build a program. It's got all the attraction Nebraska does, minus the program prestige -- which is to say, none. Jack Trice Stadium is small and the athletics department doesn't have much money. But when you have a good coach, you can usually get things done, at least in the short term. Right now, there's no question Rhoads is doing just that.

This week: 4-2 overall, 4-2 Big 12

Overall: 46-20, 14-6 Big 12

Hits

Texas 41, Missouri 7: Everyone's saying that Colt McCoy returned in this game after struggles with illness and injuries earlier in the season. Missouri pulled quarterback Blaine Gabbert midway through en route to its first 0-3 conference start since 2002.

Oklahoma 35, Kansas 13: How awful did Todd Reesing look? Three interceptions on the first three drives is no way to start a game against the Sooners. Of course, he didn't get much help from his offensive line, which gave up three sacks and let OU get to Reesing all day.

Oklahoma State 34, Baylor 7: No intrigue, no surprise. But OSU hosts Texas next weekend in possibly the only legitimate game standing between Texas and a BCS Title Game appearance.

Kansas State 20, Colorado 6: What a contrast of coaching jobs. Kansas State is on an absolute roll right now. Meanwhile, the Buffs have to go 3-2 to finish with a 5-7 record. It seems even my five wins prediction was above and beyond Colorado.

Misses

Texas A&M 52, Texas Tech 30: Cyrus Gray had a field day against Texas Tech, scoring four touchdowns. Texas Tech can't be feeling good about losing by 22 to the team that Kansas State railed 62-14. It was a much-needed win for Texas A&M, which is still in pretty poor shape but at least won't feel as much heat this week.

Iowa State 9, Nebraska 7: Had I waited a week to write my midseason coaching review, Bo Pelini's efforts this season would place him solidly at No. 10. Losing to Iowa State, at home, via eight turnovers, by a score ofnine to seven no less, is among the ugliest home losses in Nebraska football history. This team has struggled from the get-go with its personnel, which lacks a serious playmaker. But credit to Iowa State: it looks like it has found a quarterback, and there are a lot of reasons for that program to be optimistic.