Middle Earth

What's become of football scheduling is a shame. Gone are the non-conference schedules abundant with what would become BCS conference schools. Instead, we're left with disappointing matchups between big-time programs and the Bowling Greens, Toledos and UTEPs of the world. And why? Three reasons:

A) BCS conference schedules make up for weak non-conference schedules;

B) Schools would be stupid to make a long, hard road longer and harder than it has to be in a sport where championships are decided by formulas and speculation instead of on-field results;

and (most importantly)

C) Money.

Think I'm wrong? Ask Nebraska how much it makes off those 85,000 seats selling out at $45 a piece (minimum). Add in the $30 pay-per-view charge for schools with committed fan bases. We're already well over $3 million heading towards $4 million. And this is hardly a conclusive estimate.

So schools minimize the home-and-away series they schedule with respectable programs and bring in teams like Arkansas State, throwing more money at the opposing school than they know what to do with, and everyone's happy.

Except fans.

But unlike the polls vs. playoffs debate, which I expect to rage until Orrin Hatch is a young 400 years old, this problem has a solution:

Bring down the free market.

Easy to say, tough to do. Which brings us to this week's Big 12 Alum of the Week: Nebraska's Warren Buffet, formerly the richest man in the world. The guy knows his economics.

With that, this week's picks:

Colorado at Toledo (Friday): Remember what I said about BCS schools banking off home games against lower-tier schools? CU didn't get that memo. I have no idea why they're playing at Toledo. I also have no idea why they could only manage a 1.4-yard rushing average in a loss to Colorado State last week. And I have no idea what Dan Hawkins plans on doing to keep this team believing they can win 10 games. I'm still saying five. One of them comes this week.

Iowa at Iowa State: The only Big 12 loss I'm predicting this week. Iowa blocked field goal attempts on two consecutive plays against Northern Iowa last week to win by one point, notching a nice win over a team that's been the best in the state, or close to it, the last couple years. Iowa State's been the worst by a considerable margin, and it will uphold that reputation.

Arkansas State at Nebraska: Arkansas State won 61-0 last weekend -- something you don't expect from teams named Arkansas State. It runs a spread offense similar to what Nebraska will see during much of the Big 12 season. Nebraska will win, but ASU will land some punches, too.

Houston at Oklahoma State: Man, did you see the Cowboys take down Georgia last weekend? OSU fans won't even be able to see this win through the smoke still lingering from last weekend's barn burner.

Texas at Wyoming: Before you start lambasting me for totally botching my "Top teams just schedule home games except for the rare semi-annual marquee non-conference match-up," let me explain: This is Texas' marquee non-conference match-up. "But didn't they visit Ohio State, like, yesterday?" Yes. Well, 2005, though it seems much more recent. That's actually the Longhorns' last road game against a ranked foe outside the Big 12. So let's retract that blanket statement with a "generally speaking" statement with the same parameters. Oh, Texas wins.

Bowling Green at Missouri: I can't wait to see if this Tigers defense, that Blaine Gabbert, that offense of no-names, is for real. And on October 8 against Nebraska, I'll get to. But I bet they don't disappoint en route to a win.

Idaho State at Oklahoma: Boy, does Oklahoma need Idaho State more than Idaho State needs Oklahoma. What a tragedy of a season, and it's only week one. Luckily, Landry Jones will have it easy after a demanding game last week.

Kansas State at Louisiana-Lafayette: You know, Kansas State has always traveled to the middle of nowhere to play football games. I'm guessing its paying teams back for traveling to the middle of nowhere to play the Wildcats in the late 1980's, when, much like now, K-State was a program in shambles, and Bill Snyder had just been hired to fix things. Kansas State wins. If I were you, I'd bet against me.

Rice at Texas Tech: I bet there's some scoring in this game. Am I alone in my near-total lack of interest in Texas Tech? I thought it was just that they played North Dakota last week, but I'm starting to think I just don't care for the product Mike Leach has put on the field every year except last: good offense doomed by sub-mediocre defense. They're still good enough to win this one easily.

Kansas at UTEP: Todd Reesing is so good. UTEP is going to make him look good. Then next week they'll play Duke, and once again they'll look good. But that won't matter as much, because next week has some intriguing games in the Big 12. Be smart: hit the snooze button. You won't miss much.