Middle Earth

There's no time like the bowl season to break out the nostalgia and take a look back at the last decade. Big 12 football has gone through a shift in power from the start of the decade -- when Nebraska and Colorado were contenders for a national championship in 2000 -- to the end, when three Big 12 South Division teams were at one point ranked in the Top 5 nationally and Big 12 South teams closed out the decade with two straight national title berths.

Between all that, there was a lot worth remembering, even if it's painful. Here's your quick rundown of the Decade in Big 12 Football:

Team of the Decade: This one goes to Oklahoma. Texas fans might disagree, clinging to its national championship in 2005, its berth in 2009 and Vince Young's historic season. Impressive as that is, Oklahoma tied them in national championships, earned four total title game appearances, won two Heismans to UT's none and collected four straight Big 12 championships. Texas didn't hold a flame to the Sooners.

Top Candidate for Conference Dismissal: Baylor. Hard as I may cheer for the Bears, they haven't done much in the decade, and they've always been undersized.

Greatest Offensive Player: Vince Young. His struggles early in his career benefited him at the end, as he closed out four years at Texas by rushing for 200 yards and defeating favored USC for the national championship.

Greatest Defensive Player: Ndamukong Suh. Nebraska's dominant defensive lineman broke through offensive lines and barriers all season, winning the Bednarik, Nagurski, Outland and Lombardi trophies while becoming just the 15th defensive player to be named a finalist for the Heisman. Earlier this week, he became the first defensive player ever named the Associated Press Player of the Year.

Greatest Upset: In 2003, Kansas State won the North Division and the right to be Oklahoma's stepping stool to a national championship game. The day of the game, numerous newspapers across the country featured articles discussing the Sooners' merits as potentially the best football team in the history of college football for its dominance throughout the regular season. Oklahoma scored a quick seven points against Kansas State, and that was the end of it: The Wildcats scored 35 straight, routing OU and claiming their first Big 12 Championship.

Worst Athletic Director Move: I couldn't cut this any other way than a tie: Steve Pederson's firing of Nebraska's Frank Solich in 2003 and Tim Weiser's hiring of Kansas State's Ron Prince in 2005. Solich's canning came one day after wrapping up a 9-3 season with a revamped coaching staff that seemed built to return Nebraska for glory. It was the first major move in Pederson's long-term abortion of Nebraska's tradition, which ended after he was fired in October 2007. Weiser's folly was hiring a man completely different from the one he was replacing, former Kansas State coach and program architect Bill Snyder. Prince struggled through an abysmal era, gutting the program of its prestige and the values that Snyder used to turn it into a winner. He tied the record for shortest-tenured coach in Big 12 history at three years.

Best Speech: Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy's "I'm a man! I'm 40!" speech earned him YouTube fame, but it also served him well in the recruiting aspect of coaching. Every player wants to play for a guy that stands up for his players. People will remember that speech for years.

One-hit wonder: Kansas, circa 2007. That team went 12-1, claiming an Orange bowl victory. Two years later, their coach was fired after a six-game losing streak sent them home for the bowl season. Outside of 2007, the Jayhawks' record boasts gratuitous amounts of mediocrity, sprinkled with awfulness.

Biggest Recruiting Bust: Every team has a handful, but I'm going to go with Nebraska's Harrison Beck, once an Elite 11 quarterback turned transfer to North Carolina State. He languished behind the Huskers' Zac Taylor, who earned Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year awards in 2006, while trying to progress as a budding punk rocker (so the story goes).

Best Trick Play: Black 41 Flash Pass Reverse, otherwise known as the touchdown pass thrown to Nebraska quarterback Eric Crouch in the Huskers' 20-10 victory over Oklahoma in 2001. The catch was the biggest play of the game and a boost of momentum to Crouch's Heisman bid, which he ultimately won. It also kept Nebraska undefeated en route to an 11-0 start and national championship game berth.

Top Off-the-Field Moment: Colorado's fallout. With Katie Hnida kicking field goals, half a dozen rape accusations and the discovery of recruits being bribed with sex and alcohol, the Buffs had more drama than General Hospital. I'll be surprised if the next decade can provide something to top that.

Texas has been far from exceptional while remaining undefeated this season, producing unimpressive wins that tempt voters to drop the Longhorns in the Associated Press rankings. Part of that can be credited to Colt McCoy, who has battled the flu and nagging injuries that have held him back for much of the season. Even so, this weekend might be the most realistic shot any team has at beating Texas prior to the national championship game. Oklahoma State is down Dez Bryant and won't have a fully healed Kendall Hunter, but it has a defense that can lock down when it commits itself and an offense that's as good as any.

Personal interests aside, there aren't many more compelling matchups in the Big 12 this weekend, unless you believe upstart Kansas State has a shot against Oklahoma. You're quite the optimist, if that's the case.

The picks:

Nebraska at Baylor: If Baylor hadn't lost Robert Griffin to injury, I'd pick Nebraska to lose this game. They're starting Zac Lee again, and Baylor's defense is good enough that if the Huskers continue to play out of sync, they'll get manhandled by the Bears. However, Nebraska also has an exceptional defense that won't give up much to Baylor's offense. Husker fans with high blood pressure should still consider taking the day off.

Missouri at Colorado: Talk about two teams that both need wins. Mizzou is winless in the Big 12, and the Buffs are 2-5 with almost no reason for optimism. But unlike Colorado, we've seen Missouri can play well, despite its record. Its conference schedule this far has been Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Texas. Expect the Tigers to find Colorado much easier.

Iowa State at Texas A&M: Iowa State's offense looks positioned to improve every week. It's still putting the pieces together. Meanwhile, the defense overachieves on a daily basis. And that win against Nebraska was big, but the Aggies don't have as many offensive problems as the Huskers did. They may get slowed but Jerrod Johnson won't be stopped. I'll pick A&M, but I'm rooting for Iowa State. Did you realize they're one win from bowl eligibility?

Kansas at Texas Tech: Texas Tech clearly needs solidarity at the quarterback position, and it is struggling this season. It's interesting, because Tech so rarely has quarterback problems. It comes down to whether the Red Raiders can be stable behind center. I think they will, and I don't think Kansas will be able to keep up.

Kansas State at Oklahoma: Bob Stoops and Bill Snyder always put on a good show. For that reason, I don't think this will be a blowout. And what a win it would be if the Wildcats could pull it out. It's just too much to ask of this young, confident Kansas State team. They've done well, but Oklahoma is a different beast than they've faced thus far.

Texas at Oklahoma State: This could be McCoy's Heisman performance, and it might have to be. Texas' offense has excelled at doing just enough to win, but it won't be able to hide in this game. Oklahoma State will get its points, and Texas will have to keep up. Expect the Longhorns to do so, but remember that the spotlight's on McCoy, now more than ever. It's his team, and his play will decide who wins.

Suddenly, with a few upsets around the conference, you start to see how the stars could align themselves at the end of the season. Two of the three favorites in the Big 12 North are massive underdogs this week against Oklahoma and Texas, opening the door for Kansas State -- playing a winnable game at home -- to start 3-1 in the conference.

In the Big 12 South, it's less clear at the top, but we should be able to see a clear division between the top four and bottom two teams. But, barring an upset, the Longhorns should still finish on top.

It's a critical juncture for a team like Missouri, which runs the risk of starting 0-3 in the conference. It would take the entire season to dig out of that hole, and it's more likely they wouldn't. Nebraska would have to go 4-4 in the conference for Missouri to jump them, and that's just one team.

The picks:

Iowa State at Nebraska: Two years ago, Iowa State was a terrible team that almost beat a terrible defense on its home turf. This year, Nebraska gets time to work out its major offensive woes, because the Blackshirts will hold down the Cyclones all afternoon.

Colorado at Kansas State: I usually give Colorado a lot of credit, because I think it has the personnel to win most games it goes into. It's no credit to Dan Hawkins that the Buffs blow it most weeks. And since this game features my best and worst Big 12 coaches at midseason, I'll have to go with Bill Snyder's Wildcats. At 3-1 on a week when most of their division competition falls, they'll create some buzz.

Oklahoma State at Baylor: Closely related to those non-conference games that make me want to gouge my eyes out. OSU wins, onto the next game.

Oklahoma at Kansas: Some people seem to think Kansas on the upswing can beat Oklahoma on a downswing. But it's not true. Because Kansas is overrated, and Oklahoma will have no trouble squelching KU's offense. The Jayhawks will be humbled and knocked from that Top 25 perch they don't deserve.

Texas A&M at Texas Tech: If Kansas State could drop 62 on A&M, maybe the Red Raiders can hit 100. Seriously. If you want to know what watching me play NCAA Football 10 on the junior varsity difficulty setting looks like, watch Texas Tech in this game. It's going to be ugly.

Texas at Missouri: The air seems to be coming out of Missouri's sails fast. I'm sure Gary Pinkel's worrying about the morale of his team. I could see the first half played closely, for a few reasons: Texas has been starting slow during much of the season, it's coming off a big game against Oklahoma, and Missouri's season is all-but-doomed if its loses this one. Though ultimately, Texas will prevail.

What I love about college football is the emphasis and control coaching has. There aren't GMs or contracts to blame. Coaches build their teams, select every player. Coaches develop players. Coaches win games. Coaches. In the NFL, mediocre coaches can make it to the Super Bowl when they have a good team -- Sam Wyche, Jim Fassel and Bill Callahan are sterling examples -- but few coaches in college football reach the highest levels of achievement by accident.

Credit the slim margin of error. You can lose seven games in the NFL and win the Super Bowl. In college football, you might be able to withstand two losses, but you'll need a lot of upsets, a tough conference to play in and hype.

I've never been a huge fan of midterm grades -- they've always woken me from a daydream in which I believe I'm doing well in school -- but when it comes to coaching, I inhale them. I put a lot of emphasis on the direction a school seems headed, rather than where they stand. It's not the records that matter, it's the progress of rebuilding schools and the standing of established programs in regards to their expectations.

And since nothing makes or breaks a program like coaching, there's no better way to forecast a school's future. So here you go -- the best coaching jobs in the Big 12 this season:

1. Bill Snyder: I'm not afraid to say I love this coach. I love his dedication to his school, I love the charred remains of a football team he inherited, and I love that he has them chugging along like the tortoise vs. the hare. Kansas State seems to get better every week -- remember, it lost to Louisiana-Lafayette 17-15 earlier this season. Now the Wildcats are dropping 62 on a Big 12 school? Part of it is that the depth chart is sorting itself out, but make no mistake: This team has tons of momentum. They're better than everyone thought. They're probably better than Snyder thought. But he's a legendary coach who made a career out of achieving unexpected things. He's doing it again.

2. Paul Rhoads: Let me reiterate what I've said in past blogs: Iowa State could so easily be 3-0 in Big 12 play. The Cyclones missed an extra point at the end of the game with Kansas State. A game-winning touchdown pass against Kansas sailed just beyond an open receiver. They're playing good defense, and they're doing it with a roster that Rhoads has admitted to be too thin and weak for the Big 12. Plus, Rhoads was an assistant under former ISU coach Dan McCarney. He was already familiar with the school, brought a ton of energy, and got his players to commit to his style. They've accomplished more halfway through the season than I thought they would all year.

3. Mack Brown: You could do a lot worse than being undefeated and in the heat of the national title race, so it's hard to discredit Brown's coaching efforts. But even then, Texas hasn't exactly blown anyone out. The Horns beat Texas Tech and Oklahoma by a combined 10 points, struggled at Wyoming and were down 14-3 to Colorado at one point. But as unimpressive as they are, they've still passed two huge tests, and they're in the position every team America covets. Besides, it's tough to please people when you're in the Longhorns' shoes. They can't go anywhere but down, yet despite everyone's best efforts, they remain at the top.

4. Mike Gundy: They've drifted into obscurity after their loss to Houston, but Oklahoma State is still plugging away, undefeated in conference play, and is one upset of Texas away from being in the division driver's seat. It handled Missouri well, stands a good shot against Texas Tech and Oklahoma this season, and currently has a Top 10 recruiting class coming in next February.

5. Art Briles: That Baylor program is changing, and Briles is the catalyst. Never mind if the Bears lose the rest of their games this season (they won't); if they hadn't lost their starting quarterback -- arguably the brightest star in Waco since they joined the Big 12 -- we'd be hearing and fearing Baylor's resurgence. Briles shouldn't be faulted for an on-field injury. And aside from Robert Griffin, the coach has assembled a decent defense and is developing his talent -- a key for the only Big 12 South school outside Scout.com's current Top 25 recruiting classes for 2010.

6. Mike Leach: People had middling expectations about Texas Tech, and the results have been equally middling. So placing Leach smack in the middle of this list seems appropriate. He does seem to have found a solid option at quarterback, and the Red Raiders' two losses are by a combined eight points. Leach makes the top half by virtue of a win over No. 7's program.

7. Bo Pelini: I've always thought Pelini was a sure thing. He seems poised for success, and he's got a coaching staff with an offensive background that nicely complements his strengths as a defensive coach. And even though I think Pelini will eventually put together a power program at Nebraska, the results this season have been sub-par. The offense is struggling, the defense is good but prone to big errors, and the Huskers followed up their first big win of Pelini's era with a letdown at home. We can talk about being headed in the right direction, and it seems the Huskers are. But they're also good enough that they should be producing now, and they're faltering.

8. Bob Stoops: Landry Jones is a good quarterback. So as good as Sam Bradford is, I'm surprised that the Sooners have gone 3-3 to this point. I don't think the switch from Bradford to Landry can be entirely blamed, even if the Sooners have lost their three games by only five points. The reality is that the offensive line isn't what it was last year, and neither are the Sooners. They're better than their record shows, but this season is still a nightmare.

9. Gary Pinkel: Missouri started off fast, but Nebraska and Oklahoma State have cooled it quickly. This was a big year for Pinkel, who was supposed to show the country that his system was built to reload with talent every year, rather than wait for a few exceptional athletes to boost Missouri up into relevancy. Maybe that system is still in place, but they're not showing it. Missouri is the only Big 12 North team without a conference win, and there's still plenty of difficult season remaining.

10. Mark Mangino: Kansas is 5-1 and nationally ranked, so why would they be this low? Pure inference, my friend, and it goes like this: If we are to assume Kansas' record is weak, then we can assume that their record is not representative of their talent level. If we assume that Iowa State and Colorado are both bad teams, and we look at Kansas' record to discover that the Jayhawks lost to Colorado and were lucky to beat Iowa State, then we can conclude that while anything can happen in one game, two games goes a long way towards identifying a trend. And the trend I'm seeing is that Kansas can't play defense well, and its offense isn't what it used to be. That they are nationally ranked blows my mind.

11. Mike Sherman: Remember my general inclination to appreciate everything Bill Snyder does? I have a similar inclination to assume Sherman will fail at Texas A&M. It's nothing personal. He was a fine NFL coach, but many NFL coaches struggle to acclimate to college football, and I've always expected Sherman would struggle to adapt. He's got a strong roster, he's got good recruits coming in, but he just isn't a college football coach. I don't blame him for trying, but like 98 percent of romantic comedies, we know how this one will end. I'm already looking ahead to the next guy.

12. Dan Hawkins: Now here's a guy you blame for his own predicament. I'm talking more about the 10 wins prophecy that is currently being supplanted by the seven losses reality, but that has more to do with public embarrassment than job security. In fact, the statement suggests that Hawkins himself understood the urgent need to win and rolled the dice. Nevertheless, this program is mired in a free-fall, and Hawkins has been there long enough to absorb complete blame. I don't see a future in which he's not the next Big 12 coach fired.

Seven weeks of college football, and who leads the Big 12 North? Kansas State, the team some picked to finish last (I was not far behind, tabbing them 11th). A couple weeks ago it looked like the Big 12 North was split in two, with half the teams rising to the Top 25 and half slumming it in obscurity. Instead, we've got three teams at 1-1 in conference play, another at 1-2, with Kansas State leading and Missouri in the basement.

Unfortunately, parity doesn't earn you respect -- at least not this early in the season, in this division. Maybe the SEC East could get away with a logjam, but the Big 12 North has been the dunce for a few years now. And we've seen too many poor performances to buy stock in the belief that perhaps it's back to being highly competitive. More likely, what we have is a few C-grade teams trying to pull down a few B-grade teams to their level. And so far, so good.

Week 6 record: 2-4, 2-4 Big 12

Overall record: 42-18, 10-4 Big 12

Hits

Oklahoma State 33, Missouri 17: Missouri's had a hard run. Nebraska and Oklahoma State are a hard way to open Big 12 play. Nevertheless, the Tigers are still 0-2, and clearly not a Top 25 team -- for now, at least. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is 2-0 in conference play, but that counts for very little when your wins are over Mizzou and A&M (see below).

Texas 16, Oklahoma 13: Texas was a little less than inspiring. Even against Oklahoma, I expected more than 16 points. On the other side of the ball, I imagine Bob Stoops wants to choke a doctor right about now. Preferably the one that said Sam Bradford ran no risk of re-injuring his shoulder.

Misses

Iowa State 24, Baylor 10: Sure, it's Baylor, but Iowa State is competing well. Paul Rhoads is doing a great job with the Cyclones, who have been in the game for every second of Big 12 play this season.

Colorado 34, Kansas 30: In the preseason, this wouldn't have seemed so unlikely. But that was before the Buffs fell apart. And Kanssa was supposed to have a solid defense. So does this mean Colorado's turned it around? No, not at all. Rather, the Jayhawks are no good this year. Cue the Iowa State footage if you don't believe me. They don't deserve their Top 25 ranking.

Kansas State 62, Texas A&M 14: Talk about a flashback to 2003. This has to be the most unlikely line score I've seen this season. Never mind how pitiful Texas A&M is -- Kansas State is supposed to be running on fumes, limping through 2009. Guess what? The Wildcats are 4-3, a bowl game is a possibility, they're recruiting well, and Bill Snyder has a long-term contract. Things are looking sunny in Manhattan.

Texas Tech 31, Nebraska 10: A lot went wrong for Nebraska, but the Huskers did their fair share wrong. Like failing to commit to the run. Having an ineffective offensive gameplan. Playing Zac Lee too long. Letting Ndamukong Suh get handled in the second half. The list goes on. But at the end of the day, Nebraska blows it right when it seems on the cusp of reaching the next level.

While the ACC's reputation continues to elevate, the Big 12 Conference is plummeting. Ten months ago the debate was over which of three conference schools was worthy of a BCS Title Game appearance. Now, only Texas remains in the Associated Press Top 14, while the slide to mediocrity is illustrated by five Big 12 teams being ranked between 15th and 24th place.

But polls can be biased and stubborn, particularly early in the season. After all, Kansas and Missouri are still undefeated, and Nebraska's record is marred only by a one-point road loss to the nation's current No. 5 team. So here I present the Big 12's performance against the other notable football conferences, meaning the BCS auto qualifiers and the Mountain West. The results have been far from dominant:

Big East: 0-2

SEC: 1-1

ACC: 2-2

MWC: 5-2

Big 10: 1-1

Pac 10: 0-1

Other: Two losses to Conference USA (both at the hands of Houston), one to a MAC school, and one to the Sun Belt.

The numbers aren't always fair. UCLA-Kansas State is not an accurate barometer for comparing the Big 12 and Pac 10. The ACC and SEC games, however, all featured games between schools that were perceived as worth opponents, Kansas-Duke aside. And while the MWC numbers look nice, Wyoming and New Mexico accounted for four of those victories.

So if Texas loses at any point this season, don't expect a Big 12 team in the BCS Title Game. The ACC, on the other hand, has been playing its way back in to high regard and has two teams with viable hopes, provided they run the table. And there's always USC, who is seventh despite losing to a team that lost 15 of its prior 16 teams.

Don't underestimate the power of reputation.

A quick review of the weekend:

Week 5 record: 3-3, 1-0 Big 12

Overall record: 34-14, 2-0 Big 12

Hits

Kansas State 24, Iowa State 23: You know what, Kansas State's going to be all right under Snyder. I had my doubts, but his decision to start quarterback Grant Gregory over Carson Coffman was probably the biggest factor in the Wildcats' win -- even more than the Cyclones' missed extra point with two seconds left. Just a cruel way for ISU to lose.

Texas Tech 48, New Mexico 28: Slow start for Texas Tech, and I guess it's understandable with the disappointment that there early season has been. The good news: backup quarterback Steve Sheffield is a lightning rod. After taking over when Taylor Potts went down injured, Sheffield created a QB controversy in Lubbock.

Baylor 31, Kent State 15: Down to its third-string quarterback, the Bears did a reasonable job on Kent State, playing it safe with Nick Florence in the pocket. He managed this game well enough to win, but they need Blake Szymanski back in the pocket ASAP.

Misses

West Virginia 35, Colorado 24(Thursday): When Colorado scored early in the third quarter to cut the lead to four, I thought the Buffs were in good shape, having won the first five minutes of the second half and reclaiming momentum. But West Virginia just pounded the defense on the ground. The defensive line was overpowered and exhausted, and Dan Hawkins didn't look much different on the sideline.

Arkansas 47, Texas A&M 19: Whoa, Nellie. Who saw that coming? So much for both teams being in the same place. Arkansas has made its presence known to the rest of the SEC, while Texas A&M looks very much like the team I thought could finish in the South Division cellar. It really surprises me that Mike Sherman could do nothing to stop the hemorrhaging in this game. A&M just lost everything it had gained while rolling through its cakewalk of an early schedule.

Miami (FL) 21, Oklahoma 20: It's a huge testament to Miami that it was able to rebound, not just from the Virginia Tech loss, but from falling behind early in this game. I hadn't come to a solid conclusion on Miami, particularly when the early stretch of the schedule can be so deceiving, but I don't think you can deny the Canes have returned as a power. Oklahoma, on the other hand, can't do much better than win its division and play spoiler to Texas, turning what was supposed to be a BCS title-contending season into a nightmare.

The Big 12 Conference didn't do much to improve its reputation nationally. Far more teams performed well below expectations than those that played like they should have. Three programs lost to teams outside the major BCS conferences, and one had their fledgling national championship hopes all but crushed. Only Kansas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma met expectations (so did Iowa State, though losing by 25 shouldn't be praised.) But the rest of the conference showed why no one should look ahead. It's only week three, and we've seen two of the projected top three teams lose, and one team that expected to be near the top smoldering at the bottom as the conference's only winless team.

Week 2 record: 7-3

Overall record: 14-7

Hits

Kansas 34, UTEP 7: Total rushing yards: Kansas 255, UTEP 4. That's four on 20 attempts. As good as the offense is, the team's defense will be the determinant in its success this season, as it has been in the past. So far, so good.

Oklahoma 64, Idaho State 0: Kind of expected, but Landry Jones did a great job in Sam Bradford's absence. The Sooners are smart enough to know their season is far from over.

Texas Tech 55, Rice 10: I expected more scoring from Rice, but I'm not heartbroken over it. Quarterback Taylor Potts was more comfortable this week than last, throwing for seven touchdowns in typical Red Raiders fashion.

Missouri 27, Bowling Green 20: This doesn't seem like a Missouri win, and I'm sure the Tigers don't feel like it after scrapping to rally and save their season at home, no less. A week after trouncing Illinois, the Tigers nearly botch a sure-win. So we're back to having no clue what kind of a team MU is.

Texas 41, Wyoming 10: After a rough first half and a three-point halftime lead, Texas put together a solid second half to reassert itself as the dominant team. I'd chalk it up to a mix of lack of focus by the Longhorns and a mad crowd in Laramie. But unlike other teams yet to be mentioned, Texas shook off the dust and refocused with plenty of time to spare.

Nebraska 38, Arkansas State 9: It would have been a bigger blowout if not for some questionable calls favoring Arkansas State, but the Huskers were never threatened by the Red Wolves. Zac Lee had a solid game to balance Roy Helu Jr.'s relatively quiet one. If he can carry the load against teams of relevance, the Huskers will be in great shape down the road.

Iowa 35, Iowa State 3: Iowa State sure can make people's careers, as it did for the Hawkeyes' Tyler Sash. Sash collected three interceptions and a fumble recovery against the Cyclones. Sad day for Austen Arnaud, who threw for interceptions and got pulled.

Misses

Toledo 54, Colorado 38: Holy Toledo, the Buffs are terrible. Giving up 624 yards to Toledo is inexcusable (and the defense is supposed to be CU's strong suit). Few 0-2 teams rally for a 10-win season, and I guarantee you that team does not believe it can win even close to 10 right now. More on this later in the week.

Houston 45, Oklahoma State 35: In my predictions, I talked about Oklahoma State fans too lost in the smoke standing from the Georgia game to care much about Houston coming to town. Apparently, that went for the Cowboys, too. They got down early, put it together in the third quarter and took the lead, but couldn't lock down on defense in a fourth quarter they lost, 21-0. They've completely erased everything gained from the Georgia win.

Louisiana-Lafayette 17, Kansas State 15: I knew it. Knew it, knew it, knew it. At least I had the foresight to bet against my bet when I picked KSU in this game. His recruiting may be great, but the suggestions Bill Snyder made in the preseason about letting his coaches have lives outside of football -- I admire it, for sure. But it doesn't win football games. I'm not sure this won't be par for the course this year.

What's become of football scheduling is a shame. Gone are the non-conference schedules abundant with what would become BCS conference schools. Instead, we're left with disappointing matchups between big-time programs and the Bowling Greens, Toledos and UTEPs of the world. And why? Three reasons:

A) BCS conference schedules make up for weak non-conference schedules;

B) Schools would be stupid to make a long, hard road longer and harder than it has to be in a sport where championships are decided by formulas and speculation instead of on-field results;

and (most importantly)

C) Money.

Think I'm wrong? Ask Nebraska how much it makes off those 85,000 seats selling out at $45 a piece (minimum). Add in the $30 pay-per-view charge for schools with committed fan bases. We're already well over $3 million heading towards $4 million. And this is hardly a conclusive estimate.

So schools minimize the home-and-away series they schedule with respectable programs and bring in teams like Arkansas State, throwing more money at the opposing school than they know what to do with, and everyone's happy.

Except fans.

But unlike the polls vs. playoffs debate, which I expect to rage until Orrin Hatch is a young 400 years old, this problem has a solution:

Bring down the free market.

Easy to say, tough to do. Which brings us to this week's Big 12 Alum of the Week: Nebraska's Warren Buffet, formerly the richest man in the world. The guy knows his economics.

With that, this week's picks:

Colorado at Toledo (Friday): Remember what I said about BCS schools banking off home games against lower-tier schools? CU didn't get that memo. I have no idea why they're playing at Toledo. I also have no idea why they could only manage a 1.4-yard rushing average in a loss to Colorado State last week. And I have no idea what Dan Hawkins plans on doing to keep this team believing they can win 10 games. I'm still saying five. One of them comes this week.

Iowa at Iowa State: The only Big 12 loss I'm predicting this week. Iowa blocked field goal attempts on two consecutive plays against Northern Iowa last week to win by one point, notching a nice win over a team that's been the best in the state, or close to it, the last couple years. Iowa State's been the worst by a considerable margin, and it will uphold that reputation.

Arkansas State at Nebraska: Arkansas State won 61-0 last weekend -- something you don't expect from teams named Arkansas State. It runs a spread offense similar to what Nebraska will see during much of the Big 12 season. Nebraska will win, but ASU will land some punches, too.

Houston at Oklahoma State: Man, did you see the Cowboys take down Georgia last weekend? OSU fans won't even be able to see this win through the smoke still lingering from last weekend's barn burner.

Texas at Wyoming: Before you start lambasting me for totally botching my "Top teams just schedule home games except for the rare semi-annual marquee non-conference match-up," let me explain: This is Texas' marquee non-conference match-up. "But didn't they visit Ohio State, like, yesterday?" Yes. Well, 2005, though it seems much more recent. That's actually the Longhorns' last road game against a ranked foe outside the Big 12. So let's retract that blanket statement with a "generally speaking" statement with the same parameters. Oh, Texas wins.

Bowling Green at Missouri: I can't wait to see if this Tigers defense, that Blaine Gabbert, that offense of no-names, is for real. And on October 8 against Nebraska, I'll get to. But I bet they don't disappoint en route to a win.

Idaho State at Oklahoma: Boy, does Oklahoma need Idaho State more than Idaho State needs Oklahoma. What a tragedy of a season, and it's only week one. Luckily, Landry Jones will have it easy after a demanding game last week.

Kansas State at Louisiana-Lafayette: You know, Kansas State has always traveled to the middle of nowhere to play football games. I'm guessing its paying teams back for traveling to the middle of nowhere to play the Wildcats in the late 1980's, when, much like now, K-State was a program in shambles, and Bill Snyder had just been hired to fix things. Kansas State wins. If I were you, I'd bet against me.

Rice at Texas Tech: I bet there's some scoring in this game. Am I alone in my near-total lack of interest in Texas Tech? I thought it was just that they played North Dakota last week, but I'm starting to think I just don't care for the product Mike Leach has put on the field every year except last: good offense doomed by sub-mediocre defense. They're still good enough to win this one easily.

Kansas at UTEP: Todd Reesing is so good. UTEP is going to make him look good. Then next week they'll play Duke, and once again they'll look good. But that won't matter as much, because next week has some intriguing games in the Big 12. Be smart: hit the snooze button. You won't miss much.

Any college football fan who tuned in last night saw Boise State humble Oregon on the Smurf Turf. What you might not have seen was the postgame aftermath, in which Oregon running back LeGarrette Blount completely lost his head -- first punching Broncos defensive lineman Byron Hout square in the jaw (a beautiful punch, for what it's worth) in front of BSU coach Chris Petersen, then attacking a group of heckling Boise State students, bringing us to this week's *cue booming voice* Big 12 Alum of the Week:

Frost, a former Nebraska quarterback, wrangled and contained Blount after he went for the kill in the stands. Not only did this former Husker more or less overpower and manhandle a young man in his athletic prime, he saved the lives of at least three BSU students, whose Krispy Kreme bodies had no shot of defending Blount's attack.

That said, it's time to look ahead to the weekend's games and make some predictions. I'll be keeping track of my overall and conference prediction record over the course of the season. I'm late getting to Iowa State, which defeated North Dakota State 34-17, and to the three of you who cared, I apologize. But really, what do you want me to say? Here's my after-the-fact prediction:

North Dakota State at Iowa State: The Cyclones will win but will offer no encouragement that they can do any better than worst in the Big 12 Conference. I expect ISU quarterback Austen Arnaud to throw for between 226 and 228 yards and think Grant Mahoney will boot a 50-yard field goal, if given the chance.

Yeah, it's a gift. Now for the real predictions:

Baylor at Wake Forest: It's a pretty tall order for Baylor to go into hostile ACC territory on opening weekend and hope to bring home a win. And I believe in Robert Griffin -- I believe he is Baylor's savior, that much like in The Beauty and the Beast he is the spellbound red rose, floating and wilting ever so precariously, the only remaining hope Baylor has of transforming into something other than the ugly football wannabe it currently is -- but I don't believe he can win this game. I think senior quarterback Brian Skinner produces just enough offense to help out the Demon Deacons' defense.

Georgia at Oklahoma State: Big 12 game of the week here. I subscribe to the school of thought that Georgia will almost always, almost surely lose a game early in the season that Bulldog fans will bemoan when the bowl bids get handed out. This is that game.

Illinois vs. Missouri: This has been a fun game to watch the last couple years. That may be the case this year, too, but Illinois will claim redemption over a down Missouri squad.

Florida Atlantic at Nebraska: I prefer to look at is as Nebraska v. Howard Schnellenberger, the coach at Miami when the Canes claimed their first championship after Tom Osborne's famous-but-failed two-point conversion attempt in the 1984 Orange Bowl. All-time classic game. This one's on pay-per-view. Why? Easy Nebraska win.

North Dakota at Texas Tech: What's with all these Big 12 teams scheduling sure-win games with schools from North Dakota? I swear, if Kansas State has Bismark Tech on the sked ...

New Mexico at Texas A&M: What I love about this game -- and I know, it's sick to delight in one team's pain -- but I love that this is not a sure A&M win. I'm picking them, but I'm not convinced.

Northern Colorado at Kansas: Another boring Big 12 home-opening win. I'm sorry, I wish I could be more interesting, but I'm not being given much to work with. Alright, here's something: KU hangs 50!

Massachusetts at Kansas State: The only thing coming to mind is Marcus Camby. But on a more serious note, I'd actually like to watch this game. I'm a big Bill Snyder fan, and with all that's gone on in Manhattan this offseason, even if the game's boring the commentary will pull me through. Oh, and I'm going with KSU.

Oklahoma vs. Brigham Young: That's what I'm talking about, a real game. It gets more interesting with Oklahoma tight end Jermaine Gresham out. I still think they'll win, but BYU is just good enough to scare the Sooners and expose their problems on the offensive line.

Louisiana-Monroe at Texas: This is just a stats-grab, but it matters if my Colt-for-Heisman prediction will come through. I'll say 300 total yards for McCoy, no turnovers, and he sits the fourth.

Colorado State at Colorado: The Buffs' dubious road to 10 wins starts against their in-state rival. Expect them to win this game, but don't count on double-digit victories.

Finally, for those of you who made it this far:

Creepy coincidence: Also on the Ducks' staff with Frost is a tight ends coach named Tom Osborne. I wonder how it would feel to be the second-best football coach with your own name?

2008 record: 5-7 overall, 2-6 Big 12 Conference

2009 projection: They'll duke it out with Iowa State at the bottom of the standings. At the end of the day, they'll have capable coaching and better players.

Reason to get excited: Bill Snyder's name rings holy throughout central and western Kansas. He's got talent, and he's done more with less.

Reason not to get worked up: The past eight months have sent the Wildcats into a downward spiral. Even leveling off and stopping the bleeding will be a big task. At 69, Snyder may not be able to maintain the workload and intensity to win consistently in a major conference. He seems excited and upbeat, but even he doesn't expect great things.

The gist: Snyder has one of the most difficult jobs in college football -- again. Twenty years after he first took the job, Snyder is back at the helm to provide stability within the program and help preserve what remains of his masterful job building a program. Ron Prince is out after three seasons, numerous internal issues, and a money scandal left in his wake. The offense has fresh, young talent on the offensive line and 2008 Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year Brandon Banks, but the wide receiver will likely find catches and yards harder to come by on the receiving end of Carson Coffman's passes. Former quarterback Josh Freeman, like Nebraska's Jammal Lord earlier in the decade, will be appreciated more when his absence reveals how little surrounding talent he had to work with. The defense is a mental mess, with Prince installing a 3-4 and later switching to 4-3. Snyder seems set to run a 4-2-5 nickel and minimize the team's weakness at linebacker.

Rallying point: Snyder. He's a college football legend.

Cover your eyes: Coffman. The quarterback from Peculiar, Missouri, seems to have earned Snyder's trust, but doesn't have the look of a Big 12 leader. Says one reporter at Big 12 Media Days: "A picture is worth 1,000 words, and every one of them says Kansas State isn't going anywhere with him."

For what it's worth: If all Snyder does is calm the waters, win a few games, and bring in some strong recruits, his tenure will be a success. Expect 2-3 years out of Snyder and enjoy it while it lasts.

I don't know if any Big 12 Conference football program has as bleak a future as Kansas State. Yes, I know Iowa State's in the Big 12. Kansas State's white-collars are destroying the program even faster than Bill Snyder built it.

Ron Prince was a failure -- a big one. He brought a different attitude that stunned recruits (Josh Freeman excluded) after Bill Snyder's departure. This didn't translate to popularity, like-ability or wins. They fired him after three seasons and just one bowl appearance, tying him for the shortest head coaching tenure of the Big 12 era.

But surprise, surprise! Prince's buyout wasn't enough to rid Kansas State of him. Then-athletic director Bob Krause agreed to cushion Prince's firing with $3.2 million in payments between 2015 and 2020 -- under the table.

So Kansas State decides to sue to nullify the payments, since the administration and Board of Regents weren't aware of the deal. Does this mean Kansas State is suing itself? I like to think it does.

Then Kansas State placed longtime administrators Jim Epps and Bob Cavello on administrative leave, saying it's unrelated to the Prince fiasco. But there's so much on KSU's plate by this point, I have a hard time imagining they would suspend two prominent administrators that weren't connected in some way.

Just for a bit of added zest -- because this story needs it -- an audit that former athletic director Tim Weiser received a $500,000 loan from the school to help pay for a real estate purchase. But don't worry. The loan was paid with interest, and at any rate, Weiser -- who hired Prince, for what it's worth -- has long been fired.

This might just be me being impulsive, but I think Kansas State has some trouble.

Check that: It has an incredible amount of trouble. The Wildcats football program is on the brink of returning to the barrel bottoms it is known for inhabiting. This is way worse than any scandal Nick Saban or Rhett Bomar might cook up. Snyder is supposedly back coaching for two seasons to help right the ship, but KSU is sitting at the crossroads of money and tradition. Both are leading straight off a cliff.

In 2007, the year for which we have the most recent data, Kansas State football brought in just shy of $22 million. It's also more than 45 percent of KSU's entire athletic department revenue. That's well short of Texas' $72.9 million in football revenue and a middling number in terms of percentage of total sports revenue. One can imagine it was much higher when the program was excelling on the national stage. But it seems like the Wildcats are prepared to spend most of what they've made on lawsuits, lawyer's fees, and the illegal payments that prompted all this legal work.

In the meantime, Snyder isn't going to do much with that program except keep the headset warm. At 69 and coming out of retirement, Snyder won't be able to turn this into a lengthy stay like Tom Osborne is doing with Nebraska's athletic director job. Coaching is much more taxing.

But building success now is going to be much harder than it was the first time he started, when he was an up-and-coming disciple of Hayden Fry and Kansas State could only go up. Snyder's recruiting abilities had dipped in his last final years at KSU, and with a limited tenure and no answers for what the future might hold, convincing recruits to sign up for four years of unknowns is going to be a tough sell.

What Kansas State has, besides an incredible mess, is one last chance to make the right hire and preserve what Snyder has built. The next athletic director will need to be an incredible fundraiser -- one that can find the money an established coach can't say no to (Jim Leavitt will be at the top of this list). If Snyder goes out and the next coach proves to be a schmuck, the program Snyder built was dead.

Kansas State isn't like Nebraska, where former players and coaches work like an immune system to eliminate infecting legions and re-establish order. Without another run of success, Kansas State will be starting from scratch.

It's a shame to see Snyder's masterpiece crumbling. But his return to coaching is only stabilizing, not problem-solving.

As for Price, he's back at Virginia working as the Cavs' special teams coach. That's a pretty long fall for a coach who had coached in a major football conference and upset Texas twice.

Just more evidence that we don't yet know the majority of this story.