Cubs Diaries

“Don’t Worry, It’s Still Early”

That’s about the most common line you hear from baseball fans this time of year. The Cubs are looking up in the standings at the Reds and Pirates? Come on, It’s still April! Christian Guzman is leading the NL in batting average? Don’t worry, it’s early.

Before you know it though, it’s too late. Sure, you can chalk up just about anything in baseball to the fact that the calendar hasn’t yet reached May, let alone June – but as players get increasingly closer to the 100-at-bat mark numbers start to solidify.

So if you’re a Cubs fan, you officially have 42 at-bats before you begin to worry about Derek Lee. The 33-year-old has manned first base for the Cubs since 2004 and his defense hasn’t slipped – he could very easily add to the one Gold Glove he’s won with Chicago. The same can not be said for his offense.

After a monster 2005 season that saw him hit .335 with 46-round trippers and lead the league in doubles, on base percentage and slugging percentage, Lee got injured 50 games in to the 2006 season and he hasn’t been himself since. He hit 22 and 20 bombs in ’07 and ’08 respectively and hasn’t come within 100 total bases of his 2005 total.

This year Lee’s decline has been precipitous. Again, he’s only logged 58 at-bats, but he’s hitting .207 and isn’t on pace to come close to his customary 40+ double total. As a result, the Cubs offense has not lived up to the hype they generated before the season started. Granted he isn’t the only Cub to have struggled with the bat thus far, but the others – Soto, whose very young and is coming off a nagging injury and Bradley, whose been a streaky hitter his whole career – shouldn’t elicit panic yet. Worse still, Lee has hit .304 and has been counted on as a consistent source of middle-of-the-order production since arriving from Florida; and with his slump the lineup – considered the most feared in all the National League – doesn’t scare teams the way North Siders anticipated it would.

Lee is in his 13th season and he’s reaching the age where a poor season might not be just an aberration, but a sign of what’s to come. The Cubs are about kick off their second series with the arch-rival Cardinals in the young season, and with the NL Central looking tougher than expected this series could set the tone for the first third of the season. Lee needs to start coming around before it’s too late to say “don’t worry it’s still early”.