Fairweather Report

Now that March ... well, I guess April, Madness is over, it is time for the Butler Bulldogs to take off that glass slipper that they wore oh so well, and pass it along to their professional counterparts: the Oklahoma City Thunder. Yes, that Thunder. The neglected stepchildren of the Western Conference, the team formerly known as the SuperSonics, the home of the Durantula, the ... uh, hmm, that’s all I’ve got really, but one cannot deny that they are playing some of the most exciting basketball in the NBA right now.

As of today, the Thunder have comparable records to the Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks and are a mere game-and-a-half back of Utah, Denver, Phoenix and Dallas for the No. 2 through No. 5 seeds in the West. If they can maintain the momentum they have going now, having beaten the Lakers and Celtics a week ago and Dallas this past Saturday, they will have a legitimate shot at taking the No. 2 or No. 3 seed into the playoffs. I mean seriously, a year ago, who in their right mind thought that such a thing would even be possible?

Despite their consistent success this season, they still can’t break into the back page headlines overpopulated by the big boys of LA, Cleveland and Dallas. Sure, these teams consistently establish themselves as legitimate perennial contenders, but it’s hard to ignore the noise generated by the Thunder given the turnaround they’ve experienced from last year to now. The Thunder have not only doubled their win total from all of last season, but they’ve done it without massive free agent signings, a la the ’07-’08 Celtics, or big name trade deadline move. Instead, they’ve built a solid team through the draft (four of their five starters have three years or less experience), developed their young talent and have an established franchise player in Kevin Durant. These are the essential building blocks of a championship team in the making.

The key to Oklahoma City making a deep playoff run is maintaining their game plan from the regular season: Feed Kevin Durant till he can’t handle the ball anymore! Ever since they drafted Durant the team has done nothing but improve. Despite my skepticism stemming from his brief time at Texas, which hinged heavily on his awkward lankiness and underdeveloped build, I can’t help but be impressed by his game. Granted, he is still as scrawny and goobery as ever, but somehow he has made it work. If you were playing a pickup game, based solely upon looks, he would definitely end up being one of the last guys picked ... well, next to Rasheed Wallace’s Buddha belly and Chris Kaman’s hairline.

Durant has proven repeatedly that he is willing to bear the burden of the franchise while his young supporting cast develops. LeBron has Shaq, Antawn Jamison and Mo Williams. Kobe has Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher. Who does Oklahoma City have without Durant? Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green are having solid years, averaging 16.1 pts and 15.1 pts respectively, but they’re not exactly solid enough to keep the ship afloat. The one knock on Durant’s game is that he tends to disappear in the fourth quarter and is hesitant to take the game over, like the aforementioned LeBron or Kobe. That being said, all of this has to be put in perspective.

First, this Thunder team has rarely broken the .500 mark (20 and 23 wins the last two seasons), was being blown out on a nightly basis, and therefore rarely ever had anything to close out. Secondly, I think it simply shows the faith that the coaching staff, and Durant himself, has in the rest of the team to finish the game. No matter how great a singular player is, he still needs those other four guys on the floor to fulfill their roles to help win championships.

The anonymity of the Thunder’s roster is what makes them such an exciting team coming down the stretch. They are a completely new generation of players who are all evolving into superstars at the same time. They have given every big name team in the league a run already this season and if there were one team I would not want to play in the playoffs this year, it would definitely be the Thunder. Despite their youth and inexperience, my question is why not this year? Why does everyone root for the Cinderella team in March, but neglect them in May? Can we please come up with a better nickname than “Durantula?” I think it is about time for some new blood at the top of the NBA.

Welcome to National Pokémon Observation month, or at least that’s what March now looks and sounds like. Honestly, when else will you read the paper headlines or hear people openly discuss the pros and cons of contests between Banana Slugs, Golden Bears, Blue Devils, Demon Deacons, Highlanders, Aggies, Bulldogs, Boilermakers, Monarchs, Spiders, Racers, Fighting Irish, Bearkats, Buccaneers, and the list goes on and on. Not to mention the games, office mates, family members, close friends, not-so-close friends, roommates, and bloggers who “gotta catch’em all”. Tempers will flare, hearts will be broken, dreams shattered, glory exalted, and still no one will be able to tell me where the hell Murray State is and what it has to do with the state! March Madness has fully set in. The posturing is over. The brackets have been laid out. The mascots’ costumes dry cleaned. The time has come to crunch the numbers and make some difficult choices. Which 5 will take down a 12? Will all the 1 seeds make it to the Sweet 16 for the sixth straight year? Which 8 v 9 game will be the most fun to watch? Who will be wearing that ever-so-popular glass slipper and take home the title of Cinderella, which honestly is often times a better title to win? The coverage may be a little overwhelming, the games over-analyzed, but you WILL pay attention whether you like it or not. Whether you are in for school pride or for taking your boss’ bracket money, we all fall victim to March Madness!

After all of that, here are my Final Four predictions by region.

Midwest: Kansas Jayhawks



Simply the most well rounded and, more importantly, experienced team in college basketball. The Jayhawks simply create too many mismatches both on the inside and on the perimeter. It has been difficult for teams to cope with Sherron Collins quickness and Xavier Henry’s explosiveness off the bounce, all while keeping Cole Aldrich contained on the interior. They have struck an offensive balance across the board with four starters averaging in double figures and have the added luxury of a dynamic passing guard in Brady Morningstar and a solid big man in Markieff Morris coming off the bench to contribute. KU should have a relatively easy run through the first two rounds and be able to rest some of its stars before it meets its first legitimate challenge from either Michigan State or Maryland in the Sweet 16. Much like the Big 12 tournament I see them rolling through to the Final Four for a rematch with K-State in what could be an epic in-state showdown.

Team that could end their run: Maryland in the Sweet 16

The Terps aren’t exactly what one would call a defensive team. My brother and I would say they play Kenny “Screen Door” Anderson style defense, where you can blow by them or just go straight through them, either or, it does not matter. Maryland have one of the most underrated attacking guards, with arguably one of the best names, in the country with Greivis Vasquez. Vasquez can score from anywhere on the court and has developed into an efficient passer (6.3 ast per game) who creates a lot of open shots for his teammates when he penetrates the lane. With decent speed at every position, Maryland creates mismatches all over the court and if they can put together a complete game, or even just a half, of solid defense they could definitely be seen as a legitimate spoiler.

West: Kansas State Wildcats



Throughout the season K-State has proven that it can run with the big boys, but that has been the extent of it. The Wildcats can run with anyone, but every chance they have had to overtake them and assert themselves as legitimate contenders, they falter just the slightest bit. Nothing exemplifies this more than the two tough losses to No. 1 ranked Kansas, once in overtime during the regular season and again in the Big 12 Tournament Championship. Like Kansas and Syracuse, Kansas State is built around solid guard play and defense. Since the Wildcats rely so heavily on their starting two guards, Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente, they tend to go however they do. Pullen and Clemente lead the team in points and assists, 18.9/3.5 and 16.2/4.2 respectively, and are the team’s vocal leaders. In order for K-State to get to the national title it needs to get more production from role players, like Jamar Samuels and Luis Colon, who are both capable defenders, but need to be a more of a threat on the offensive end as well. They also have the good fortune of being in the same bracket as Syracuse. On paper that is not exactly a benefit, but with the uncertainty of the most efficient big man in the country, Arinze Onuaku, ‘Cuse could have issues escaping the early rounds, leading to the possibility of K-State meeting a 5, 8, or 9 seed in the Elite Eight.

Team that could end their run: BYU in the second round/Butler in the Elite Eight

BYU and Butler are both teams that can shoot lights out from anywhere on the floor. These groups of guys are built from a very similar mold where they rely on their outside shooting and perimeter defense to keep them in games. If they get hot, either team could make a serious run, but with any shooting team it comes in spurts and you’re never really sure what you’re going to get. Look at what happened to Purdue and their 11 first half points against Minnesota last week.

East: West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia is the team of destiny, simple as that. Throughout the whole Big East Tournament it never seemed like the Mountaineers were going to lose, no matter how close Cincinnati, Notre Dame or Georgetown came. Once Dion Dixon decided to dribble with his knees on the sideline it was over. Two seconds and a fade away bank three-pointer later you felt like the tournament was theirs to lose. Yes, Notre Dame and Georgetown gave them a run to the very last second of their games, but like my father always told me, the great teams always find a way to win. No matter how stagnant or ugly its offence can be West Virginia still gets it done on a nightly basis. The key to its success is defense. The Mountaineers smother perimeter shooters and, even though they are undersized, find ways to disrupt players in the post, which was exemplified by how they limited Greg Monroe’s productivity in the Big East Championship. On offence they have issues beating people off the dribble and tend to force shots, but they close out on the defensive end, run in transition, and consistently put themselves in a position to win (3 of their 6 losses by 3 pts or less). When they need a big stop, they get it. When they need a basket, they find a way, even if they have to travel, to get it done. Mainly I simply cannot bet against Bob Huggins’ burgeoning hockey mullet.

Team that could end their run: Kentucky Wildcats in the Elite 8

I just do not feel like Kentucky has faced a defense like West Virginia’s all year. The Mountaineers have decent size and speed at the guard positions to match up against John Wall and Eric Bledsoe and proved in the Georgetown game that they can handle both size and speed on the blocks. Mainly I just feel as though this year’s Kentucky team eerily mirrors Calipari’s ‘07-’08 Memphis team. Star freshman point guards in Derrick Rose and John Wall, who have relatively comparable numbers (Rose: 14.9 ppg/4.7 ast/1.2 st; Wall: 16.9 ppg/6.4 ast/1.8 st), similar regular-season records, but more importantly, they have a similar level of invaluable tournament inexperience.

South: Villanova Wildcats

To be honest, this entire region is a toss-up. I think that Duke is one of the softest No. 1 seeds in recent memory, with only one win over a top 25 team all year, and will be eliminated in the second round by either Louisville or Cal. Purdue is over-seeded and struggles mightily without Robbie Hummel’s shooting ability. Baylor and Villanova are the wildcards, and I see Nova having the slight edge because it plays in a tougher conference and has a proven winner in Scottie Reynolds. Baylor scares me because no one, including myself, really knows what to expect from the Bears on the big stage. Villanova has a solid core of guys who have been to the dance and know what it takes to win with the season on the line. Despite going out in the early rounds of the Big East tournament, Nova has had the benefit of being able to rest up knowing that their place in the tournament was already secured.

Team that could end their run: Richmond Spiders/Saint Mary’s or Baylor Bears

Uh, not really sure what to say about either of these teams, I just know that if Nova can make it out of the first couple of rounds, it should be golden.