'04 Still Casts Monster Shadow Over Beltre
- Tuesday, January 5, 2010 11:03 AM
- Written By: Andrew Simon
Now that Adrian Beltre has signed a free agent deal with the Red Sox, he will spend half his games in 2010 at Fenway Park, with the Green Monster looming far over his shoulder as he stands at third base.
The giant wall will not be the only thing hanging over Boston’s new man at the hot corner.
Beltre, who spent the past five seasons in Seattle, has established himself as a valuable Major Leaguer who plays an excellent third base and hits with some power. But it’s hard to think about Beltre without remembering his 2004 season, which continues to overshadow the rest of his career.
After five seasons tucked away in the Pacific Northwestern at cavernous Safeco Field, that ’04 campaign seems like eons ago. Let’s take a look back.
Beltre entered the 2004 season in the final year of his contract and went into free agency with not so much a bang, but a sonic boom. In one of the finest offensive seasons ever by a third baseman, he batted .334/.388/.629 with 48 home runs.
In the field, he came up with a stunning Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of 23.1, meaning he saved about 23 runs more than an average third baseman. For comparison’s sake, the best UZR by a third baseman in 2009 was Evan Longoria’s 18.5.
But what’s even more amazing than the season itself or the fact that LA fans took to showering him with MVP chants is how far away that 2004 campaign was from all of his others.
Beltre has spent the past five years in a terrible hitter’s park, but that certainly doesn’t make up for the whole contrast. Plus, Beltre had five full seasons in LA before his breakout.
Here is a list Beltre’s marks in key statistics during his 2004 campaign, then followed by his second-best season and his career average.
AVG: .334, .290, .270
OBP: .388, .360, .325
SLG: .629, .482, .453
OPS: 1.017, .835, .779
HR: 48, 26, 22
The chasm between Beltre’s 2004 and the rest of his career is remarkable. To condense that fact into one statistic, consider WAR, or “wins above replacement.” This stat tells you how many more wins a given player was worth to a team than the average player at that position the team could have taken off the waiver wire or from Triple-A. In 2004, Beltre was worth a stunning 10.0 WAR, making him the only player other than Barry Bonds to reach double digits since 2002. Beltre’s second best WAR total: 4.6.
The whole point of this exercise is not to denigrate Beltre or label him a bust or a disappointment. Considering his defense and factoring in the park adjustments, Beltre was worth the $64 million the Mariners paid him. And barring injury, it’s a good bet he will be worth the $9 million or so the Red Sox pay him this season.
It’s just an interesting example of the effect of perception on a player’s reputation. Many people probably would consider Adrian Beltre an underachiever, but that’s only true if you compare him to 2004’s Adrian Beltre.
And whoever that guy was, he wasn’t Adrian Beltre. He was barely human.
