Hitting The Cutoff Man

Over the next three weeks, I will be previewing all 30 Major League teams (two teams per day, five days per week). First up, the Arizona Diamondbacks.

2009: 70-92, 5th place in NL West. Pythagorean record of 75-87.
Key Additions: SPs Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, 2B Kelly Johnson, 1B Adam LaRoche
Key Losses: SPs Max Scherzer and Doug Davis, OF Eric Byrnes, RP Daniel Schlereth
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 81-81, 4th in NL West. CHONE – 79-83, 3rd in NL West. CARIO – 81.5-80.5, 3rd in NL West.


Pitching: 2009 – FIP of 4.20 (10th in MLB), 4.29 for starters, 4.02 for relievers.
2010 – The health of Brandon Webb’s shoulder is the big question mark. The D-backs could use some support from Ian Kennedy and Billy Buckner at the back end of the rotation, especially if Edwin Jackson regresses a bit.
Hitting: 2009 – wOBA of .324 (20th in MLB)
2010 – Johnson and LaRoche were decent if uninspiring additions, but Arizona needs Conor Jackson to bounce back and Chris Young to start figuring things out.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of 21.6 (9th in MLB)
2010 – Bad news for D-backs pitchers, especially a ground ball artist like Webb: all four projected starting infielders have negative career UZRs at their positions.

Reasons To Watch
1. Justin Upton. He won’t turn 23 until August but is already a star. His top 10 Baseball Reference comparables through last season included Miguel Cabrera, Andruw Jones, Hank Aaron and Willie Mays. His top comparable was Ruben Sierra, but try to ignore that.
2. Mark Reynolds. He strikes out a lot, but when he connects, the ball flies – a long, long, way. According to hittrackeronline.com, Reynolds led the majors last season in average standard home run distance (a measurement that adjusts for weather and altitude). His 44 long balls traveled an average of 415.7 feet, and he smacked two of the seven longest bombs of the season.
3. Clay Zavada. A lefty reliever, Zavada won an actual award called “Mustached American of the Year” in 2009. His handlebar ‘stache is something to behold and makes him look like a player from the 19th Century.

Paint By Numbers: The D-backs had the second-highest strikeout rate of any team last season (23.3%) and the sixth-lowest walk-to-strikeout ratio (0.44). A big chunk of the credit should go to Mark Reynolds, who broke his own single-season MLB strikeout record with 223. But he didn’t do it alone. Chris Young, Chris Snyder and Justin Upton all were victims of the K in more than 25% of their at-bats. … Arizona also led MLB in percentage of plate appearances ending in an infield fly (11.4%), thanks largely to Eric Byrnes (now with Seattle), who led all players with at least 200 plate appearances with a rate of 25.3%, and Young, who was fourth at 22.4%. It was Byrnes’ fifth straight season with a rate of higher than 22%. Infield fly balls are of course almost automatic outs, so between all of the strikeouts and pop ups, its easy to see why the Diamondbacks struggled offensively in 2009 (20th in runs scored).

Blog Jog: Jim McLennan of AZ Snakepit examines Upton’s recent six-year, $51.25 million contract extension and compares it with some other big deals the team has inked in its history. ... McLennan reviews the first third of Spring Training. ... Arizona Republic beat writer Nick Piecoro brings the news that the D-backs could be interested in Kris Benson. ... Tom McKean of ESPN's The Max Info Blog (Insider Only), makes some interesting points about Zavada.

Follow Hitting The Cutoff Man on Twitter at HitTheCutoff