Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 86-76, 3rd in NL East, Pythagorean record of 91-71.
Key Additions: 1B Troy Glaus, LF Melky Cabrera, RPs Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito
Key Losses: SP Javier Vazquez, RP Rafael Soriano, 1B Adam LaRoche, 2B Kelly Johnson
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 86-76, 2nd in NL East (Wild Card), CHONE – 89-73, 1st in NL East, CAIRO – 84.5-77.5, 2nd in NL East

Pitching: 2009 – FIP of 3.66 (1st in MLB), 3.68 for starters, 3.62 for relievers
2010 – The Braves subtracted Javier Vazquez (traded) but added Tim Hudson (recovered from surgery) and figure to get a full season from youngster Tommy Hanson. Free agent signee Billy Wagner can still get it done as a closer, as long as he stays healthy.
Hitting: 2009 – wOBA of .326 (16th in MLB)
2010 – Getting rid of dead weight in Garret Anderson will help, but is Troy Glaus really the answer at first base? Help from uber-prospect Jason Heyward would provide a much-needed boost.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -18.8 (20th in MLB)
2010 – Melky Cabrera is a big upgrade over Anderson in left field. Glaus has played just 38 career innings at first, but moving there from third isn’t usually too strenuous an adjustment.

Reasons to Watch
1. Jason Heyward: As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, history is against a 21-year-old coming up and hitting like a superstar right away. Even most of the great ones struggle some when they’re that young. But for what it’s worth he’s been hot in Spring Training. It will be interesting to see what kind of an opportunity he gets early this season and what he’s able to do with it.
2. Chipper Jones: Could it really be his last season? Jones hasn’t backed off remarks he made after last season saying he would retire if he didn’t improve in 2010. It seems unlikely he would follow through on that, but make sure to appreciate “Larry” this year, just in case.
3. Eric Hinske: Anyone who is willing to spend $5,000 to do this to their own body is worth watching in my book.

Paint By Numbers: Reliver Peter Moylan was the only pitcher in either league last year to pitch more than 50 innings without surrendering a home run. A right-handed sidearmer from Australia, Moylan also put up the fourth-highest ground ball percentage. … Jair Jurrjens had a fantastic 2009, putting up a 2.60 ERA, about a run lower than his 2008 mark. But a .273 BABIP and 3.68 FIP, compared with .311 and 3.59 the previous season, suggest Jurrjens’ great step forward wasn’t as huge as it appeared. … On the other hand, hitters put up a .330 BABIP against Derek Lowe, the fifth-highest mark against any qualified pitcher and much higher than Lowe’s career mark. That luck figures to turn around somewhat.

Blog Jog: Capital Avenue Club explains why Chipper Jones is wrong and the Braves should leave Jason Heyward down on the farm, at least for a couple of weeks. ... CB Wilkins of Talking Chop files this report from Braves minor league camp. ... Atlanta Journal-Constitution beat writer David O’Brien says Tim Hudson was encouraged by his stuff in his last spring start. ... R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs muses on Atlanta’s dependence on injury-prone players and Bobby Cox’s final season as manager.

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