Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 64-98, 5th in AL East. Pythagorean record of 69-93.
Key Additions: SP Kevin Millwood, RP Mike Gonzalez, 3B Miguel Tejada, 1B Garrett Atkins
Key Losses: 3B Melvin Mora, RP Danys Baez, C Gregg Zaun
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 80-82, 4th in AL East. CHONE – 75-87, 4th. CAIRO – 68.5-93.5, 4th.

Pitching: 2009 – 5.03 FIP (30th in MLB), 5.33 for starters, 4.55 for relievers
2010 – The rotation figures to be better, but Millwood is hardly a No. 1 caliber starter, and Baltimore will need young guys like Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman to take big steps forward.
Hitting: 2009 – .327 wOBA (15th in MLB)
2010 – The O's outfield is stacked with great young talent and catcher Matt Wieters should be much better in his second go-around, but it's not clear that putting Atkins at first base was a good move.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -23.6 (23rd in MLB)
2010 – The outfield defense should improve because it seems unlikely that the numbers Adam Jones and Nick Markakis put up last season were indicative of their true talent level. Cesar Izturis is stellar at shortsop, but Tejada is trying third base for the first time.

Reasons to Watch
1. Matt Wieters: Wieters was the Jason Heyward of 2009, facing loads of hype fueled by a shockingly robust PECOTA projection. He struggled early but came on late (including a Sept/Oct line of .333/.395/.486) to finish with some pretty solid numbers. To be about a league-hitter as a 23-year-old catcher is quite an accomplishment, and it will be fun to see if Wieters blossoms this season, especially with the pressure of being a super-rookie out of the way.
2. The outfield: Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie are all between 24 and 26 years old. Jones looks like a budding all-around talent, Markakis already is one, Reimold mashed as a rookie and Pie is a superior defensive player. With Luke Scott penciled in at DH, they can't all play at once, which could lead to a trade down the road, but they should all get plenty of opportunities to shine.
3. Brian Matusz: The 23-year-old lefty seems like the most promising of Baltimore's young pitchers, who will need to develop if the team is going to challenge the AL East establishment in the coming years. Matusz started 2009 in A ball before jumping from Double-A to the majors in August and posted a 4.08 FIP.

Paint By Numbers: Jeremy Guthrie gave up a stunning 35 home runs in 200 innings last season, putting him second behind Milwaukee's Braden Looper. Guthrie's rate of home runs per fly ball was pretty much in line with his career numbers, but he gave up fly balls in 46.5 percent of his at-bats, compared with about 38 percent the two previous seasons. ... Garrett Atkins' OPS the last four seasons has fallen like this: .965, .853, .780, .650. ... In his career, Mark Hendrickson has a 5.28 ERA as a starter, compared with a 3.40 mark out of the bullpen. Last season, Hendrickson made 11 starts with a 5.40 ERA, a .910 OPS against and a 1.26 K/BB ratio. In 42 relief appearances, he was a different pitcher, posting a 3.44 ERA, .708 OPS against and a 2.64 K/BB ratio.

Blog Jog: Camden Chat's Stacey Long ponders the state of the Orioles' fan support. ... Roar From 34 highlights Matt Wieters' Sports Illustrated cover and looks back at the last time a Baltimore backstop received the honor. ... Daniel Moroz of Camden Crazies examines potential fill-ins at second base, both internal and external, while Brian Roberts deals with a back problem.

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