Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 95-67, 2nd in AL East. Pythagorean record of 93-69.
Key Additions: SP John Lackey, 3B Adrian Beltre, CF Mike Cameron, SS Marco Scutaro
Key Losses: LF Jason Bay, 1B Casey Kotchman, RP Takashi Saito, SS Alex Gonzalez
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 98-64, 1st in AL East. CHONE – 93-69, 2nd (Wild Card). CAIRO – 93.8-68.2, 2nd (Wildcard).

Pitching: 2009 – 4.14 FIP (8th in MLB), 4.14 for starters, 4.15 for relievers
2010 – The signing of Lackey was obviously huge, as he will team with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester to give the Sox a great 1-2-3 punch. A resurgent Daisuke Matsuzaka and a blossoming Clay Buchholz would mean the best rotation in baseball.
Hitting: 2009 – .352 wOBA (2nd in MLB)
2010 – The additions of Beltre, Cameron and Scutaro have gotten a lot of attention for being signs of a shift toward defense by Boston's brass, but it's not like these three guys can't hit. The Sox lineup still has plenty of firepower.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -16.3 (16th in MLB)
2010 – It's been one of the big topics of the offseason: Boston's defense should be much better with its new free agent signings in tow. Plus, the team already had a brilliant defensive right side of its infield with Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia.

Reasons to Watch
1. The new guys: How accepting will Red Sox Nation and the media be if the team gets off to a rocky start and Beltre, Cameron and Scutaro aren't hitting much? Offensive prowess is easier to see than steady defense, and the team's new additions could turn into easy scapegoats if things aren't going well.
2. David Ortiz: 2009 was a bizarre year for Big Papi, who was hitting below .200 with one home run entering June before getting things going and finishing the year with 28 homers and a .340 wOBA. These weren't the types of numbers we've been accustomed to from Ortiz, but they were enough to fend off the he's-done talk for a while. But it will be interesting to see what happens if Papi gets off to another snail-paced start.
3. Young flamethrowers: Clay Buchholz finally started to put things together at the Major League level last season, while Daniel Bard made a name for himself in the bullpen with his 97-mph average fastball.

Paint By Numbers: Bard's average fastball velocity last season (officially 97.3 mph) was the second-best in the majors, trailing only Jonathan Broxton. But according to FanGraphs' PitchFx data, even though Bard threw the fastball 73 percent of the time, his slider was actually his most effective pitch, coming in at 5.1 runs above average. ... Jacoby Ellsbury stole 70 bases, making him the first AL player to reach that plateau since 1997. It also meant that Ellsbury swiped more bags than three teams: the Cubs, Braves and Brewers. ... Dustin Pedroia's strikeout rate of 7.2 percent led all qualified hitters, while his strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.64 put him behind only Albert Pujols.

Blog Jog: Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe's Extra Bases blog examines the rumor that has Mike Lowell headed back to the Marlins. ... Logan Lietz of Over the Monster frets over Clay Buchholz's first Spring Training outing. ... Wicked Clevah provides an illuminating Q&A on what the Red Sox front office is thinking.

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