Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 92-70, 2nd in NL West (Wild Card). Pythagorean record of 90-72.
Key Additions: 3B Melvin Mora, C Miguel Olivo
Key Losses: 3B Garrett Atkins, SPs Jason Marquis and Jose Contreras, RP Joe Beimel, C Yorvit Torrealba
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 86-76, 1st in NL West. CHONE – 83-79, tied for 1st. CAIRO – 84.7-77.3, 1st.

Pitching: 2009 – 3.96 FIP (5th in MLB), 3.97 for starters, 3.96 for relievers
2010 – Marquis is gone, but Jeff Francis, who missed the 2009 season to recover from shoulder surgery, is back. Ubaldo Jimenez has developed into a legitimate No. 1 starter, and the rest of the rotation should be solid if highly unspectacular.
Hitting: 2009 – .340 wOBA (6th in MLB)
2010 – This lineup is stocked with young talent. Troy Tulowitzki is the most accomplished of the bunch, but the outfield is absolutely loaded as well, with Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith and Ryan Spillborghs to go along with Brad Hawpe.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -14.0 (15th in MLB)
2010 – Hawpe is a disaster is right field, but the Rockies should be pretty solid everywhere else, especially if Fowler's performance in center catches up to his tools. Tulowitzki looked like a defensive whiz upon his arrival in the big leagues, but his UZR is -1.4 over the past two years. Look for at least a bit of a rebound in 2010.

Reasons to Watch
1. Chris Iannetta and Ian Stewart: Both of these guys are relatively young and combine above-average patience at the plate with solid power. But they also both hit .228 last season, which held down their OBPs. If the batting averages come up a little – and CHONE projects them to do just that – the Rox will have two much more valuable players in their lineup.
2. Aaron Cook: Cook is kind of amazing, in that you can pretty much set your watch by him. The veteran right-hander’s 4.44 K/9 last season was actually a career high, but Cook has consistently found success (at Coors Field, no less) by letting the ball off the ground less than just about anyone else. His ground ball rate was second in the majors last season and has been between 55.9 percent and 61.7 percent every year.
3. The outfield situation: One tough task manager Jim Tracy faces – other than figuring out a way to continue last season’s brilliant run – is divvying up the at-bats in this crowded outfield. Despite his glove, Brad Hawpe probably will play a lot against right-handed pitchers, while youngsters Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler will play regularly as long as they continue their solid play from last season. But that still leaves Seth Smith, who has raked in his limited time in the big leagues, and Ryan Spillborghs, a solid defender who can play all three positions. If everyone stays healthy, it will interesting for both Rockies fans and fantasy owners to follow who’s getting the at-bats.

Paint By Numbers: Troy Tulowitzki’s .256 isolated power last season was 16th in the big leagues but was the best mark among middle infielders. Tampa Bay’s Ben Zobrist was the only other primary middle infielder to finish in the top 35. … Brad Hawpe has been the worst defensive player in baseball over the past three seasons – and it’s not even close. Hawpe’s UZR of -82.1 is 21 points worse than his closest “competition,” Jermaine Dye. … Jorge de la Rosa doesn’t get a whole lot of attention, but his 9.39 K/9 put him 10th among qualified pitchers last season.

Blog Jog: Andrew Martin of Purple Row parses Tulowitzki's great offensive numbers and puzzling defensive numbers. ... Purple Row's Rox Girl examines the team's latest bullpen news, including closer Huston Street's injury status. ... Jeremy Lundblad of ESPN.com's Max Info blog (insider only) takes a close look at Carlos Gonzalez's success and his struggles with runners in scoring position.

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