Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 86-77, 2nd in AL Central. Pythagorean record of 81-82.
Key Additions: LF Johnny Damon, SP Max Scherzer, CF Austin Jackson, RPs Jose Valverde, Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke
Key Losses: CF Curtis Granderson, 2B Placido Polanco, SPs Edwin Jackson and Jarrod Washburn, DH Marcus Thames, RPs Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 79-83, tied for 2nd in AL Central. CHONE – 76-86, tied for 4th. CAIRO – 80.3-81.7, 4th.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.53 FIP (25th in MLB), 4.45 for starters, 4.66 for relievers
2010 – The top of the rotation looks great with Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello, and Scherzer is promising, if a bit of an injury risk. The rest of the staff is questionable, although Jeremy Bonderman -- who has started 13 games since 2007 -- could provide a lift if healthy. Valverde's not great, but he should help a bullpen that struggled in 2009.
Hitting: 2009 – .327 wOBA (14th in MLB)
2010 – Miguel Cabrera is one of the best hitters in baseball, but outside of him, the Tigers are relying on declining stars (Magglio Ordonez, Johnny Damon, Carlos Guillen) and unproven youngsters (Austin Jackson, Scott Sizemore).
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -43.6 (5th in MLB)
2010 – The left side of Detroit's infield is superb, with Adam Everett and Brandon Inge. But two-thirds of the Tigers' up-the-middle defense (Jackson and Sizemore) is relatively untested at the big league level.

Reasons to Watch
1. Rick Porcello: At the age of 20 and with no experience above Single-A, Porcello came up last season and went 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA. That's quite an accomplishment and certainly portends a bright future for Porcello, but 2010 could be a different story. As a rookie, he struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings and allowed 23 home runs, leading to a 4.77 FIP. CHONE projects Porcello for a a 4.97 ERA this year, so we'll have to see if he can avoid a sophomore slump with his ground ball-inducing prowess.
2. Miguel Cabrera: Cabrera had some unpleasant issues to deal with during the offseason. Now, he can go back to doing what he does best: hitting the crap out of baseballs. Cabrera has put up at least a .399 wOBA in four of the past five years, and he's still only turning 27 next month. That means we can still enjoy watching him in his prime.
3. Adam Everett: Everett is unquestionably a terrible hitter -- his career-high OPS is .703 -- and at 33 years old, he's not getting any better. Yet major league teams have allowed Everett to step to the plate 2,914 times in his career for one simple reason: Once he makes an out, he can go back to playing shortstop, where he's racked up a career UZR/150 of 18.3. The man is a human vacuum.

Paint By Numbers: Joel Zumaya threw the ball harder than anyone else last season with an average fastball velocity of 99.3 mph, but that didn't result in a good performance. Zumaya walked more than six batters per nine innings on the way to a 5.58 FIP. Of course, Zumaya has made just 78 appearances over the past three years while fighting injuries. ... Brandon Inge's OPS was .876 in the first half of 2009 and .542 in the second half. ... According to FanGraphs' pitch values, the Tigers' staff had two of the best fastballs in the game last season. Justin Verlander's heater ranked sixth and Rick Porcello's was 13th. But the two pitches were quite different. Verlander's went an average of 95.6 mph and is designed to generate swings and misses, while Porcello's averaged 90.9 mph and is designed to get ground balls.

Blog Jog: Kurt Mensching of Bless You Boys analyzes the news of Armando Galarraga getting optioned to Triple-A and what that means for the Tigers' pitching staff. ... Tiger Geist provides a status report near the mid-point of Spring Training. ... Kirkland Crawford of the Free Press looks at how Placido Polanco ended up in Philadelphia, putting Scott Sizemore in the lineup on Opening Day. ... MLB.com's Jason Beck says the Tigers are trying to figure out Zumaya's fastball.

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