Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 65-97, 5th in AL Central. Pythagorean record of 66-96.
Key Additions: CF Rick Ankiel, LF Scott Podsednik, 2B Chris Getz, 3B Josh Fields, C Jason Kendall
Key Losses: CF Coco Crisp, 1B Mike Jacobs, IF Mark Teahen, C John Buck and Miguel Olivo
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 77-85, 5th in AL Central. CHONE – 76-86, tied for 4th. CAIRO – 67.5-94.5, 5th.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.36 FIP (16th in MLB), 4.25 for starters, 4.58 for relievers
2010 – The Royals have an elite starter in Zack Greinke and an elite closer in Joakim "The Mexicutioner" Soria, but both the rotation and the bullpen get thin after that. Kansas City definitely could use some help from former No. 1 overall draft pick Luke Hochevar.
Hitting: 2009 – .318 wOBA (24th in MLB)
2010 – The team's offseason additions are not likely to be much help. Royals fans are going to have to just enjoy watching Billy Butler and pray Alex Gordon has a breakout season once his thumb heals.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -49.9 (30th in MLB)
2010 – David DeJesus is a solid outfielder, and pushing Jose Guillen to DH helps, although Ankiel is a downgrade from Crisp in center. Yuniesky Betancourt is a disaster at shortstop, and nobody else on the infield figures to be good enough to make up for it.

Reasons to Watch
1. Rick Ankiel: Ankiel's transformation from star rookie pitcher to walking headcase to major league outfielder is well documented, but now the next chapter in his story is in doubt. There was some early success and big-time power, but last season Ankiel struggled with injuries and slugged just .372. Worse than that, his bat looked slow, and you have to wonder if either pitchers have figured him out, or his body is wearing down after everything he's been through. Still, he's only 30 and it's possible that playing in a low-pressure environment in Kansas City will help.
2. Zack Greinke: Going by wins above replacement, last season Greinke had the best year by a pitcher since Randy Johnson in 2004. It will be difficult for him to pull a repeat of those Cy Young-winning numbers, including a major league-leading FIP. Still, there is a distinct possibility that last season was just the beginning of a terrific run for Greinke, who is still just 26 and has improved steadily. Any time you have a guy with great velocity, great control, command of multiple pitches and an understanding of how to go after hitters, you have something special. Plus, he even appreciates advanced statistics.
3. Yuniesky Betancourt: It seems like it would be nearly impossible for a major league player to be as bad as Betancourt was last season, when he split time between the Mariners and Royals. Between Betancourt's atrocious fielding at shortstop and his weak hitting, he was worth negative 2.2 wins above replacement, 1.2 WAR worse than the closest player. It's also the worst mark of any player since another Royals shortstop, Neifi Perez, put up a negative 3.1 in 2002. Now, there's almost no way Betancourt fails to improve this season, and CHONE projects him at a robust 0.3 WAR, but it will be fun seeing him try.

Paint By Numbers: Last season, 36 major league players got 300 plate appearances and put up a wOBA below .300. The Royals traded for one in the middle of the season (Betancourt) and signed two more in the off-season (Ankiel and Kendall). If you wanted to frame this positively, I guess you could say they are buying low. ... Greinke accounted for 35.1 percent of his team's total wins above replacement last season, the second-highest percentage, just barely behind the Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman. ... Hochever had the highest ERA of any pitcher with at least 100 innings last season at 6.55, and while his 4.84 FIP suggests he got a little unlucky, he still pitched pretty ineffectively. He did flash some potential, pitching one shutout, one complete game in which he gave up one run and one start in which he struck out 13 and walked none in seven innings. But the guy picked ahead of Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw in 2006 has yet to find consistent success.

Blog Jog: As only he can, Joe Posnanski takes a 9,000-word look at the Royals' last decade. ... Rany Jazayerli muses on pitching prospect Tim Melville and his significance (symbolic and otherwise) for the future course of the organization. ... Will McDonald of Royals Review thinks back on KC's Mike Sweeney deal in light of Joe Mauer signing a long extension with the Twins. ... Kings of Kauffman's Wally Fish reacts to the Royals' insistence on sticking with Jose Guillen.

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