Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 60-92, 4th in NL East. Pythagorean record of 72-90.
Key Additions: LF Jason Bay, OF Gary Matthews Jr., C Rod Barajas, RP Kiko Calero, 1B Mike Jacobs
Key Losses: 1B Carlos Delgado, OFs Gary Sheffield and Jeremy Reed, C Brian Schneider, RP JJ Putz, SP Tim Redding
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 78-84, 4th in NL East. CHONE – 80-82, 3rd. CAIRO – 77.1-84.9, 4th.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.50 FIP (24th in MLB), 4.65 for starters, 4.23 for relievers
2010 – The rotation is counting on Johan Santana (coming off elbow surgery), Mike Pelfrey (5.03 ERA in 2009), John Maine (40 starts total the past two years) and Oliver Perez (14 starts with a 6.82 ERA in 2009). Santana probably will be fine, but it's hard to be so confident about the other guys.
Hitting: 2009 – .321 wOBA (23rd in MLB)
2010 – Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are slated to begin the season on the DL. Once they come back, the Mets should have a solid core of a lineup with Jason Bay and David Wright. Of course, they're also planning to play Jeff Francoeur and David Murphy regularly at right field and first base.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -47.3 (29th in MLB)
2010 – It's worth wondering if Beltran will be missing a step in center field once he returns from knee surgery. Meanwhile, Luis Castillo seems to be slipping with age at second base, leaving the Mets' up-the-middle defense in limbo even if Reyes is fine.

Reasons to Watch
1. The injury situation: The amount of injuries the Mets had to deal with last season boggles the mind. As a result, New York wound up with just four players getting at least 400 plate appearances and one making more than 25 starts. That obviously had a lot to do with their disappointing season, and now the question is if something like it could happen again. The Mets apparently have taken steps to avoid that, but luck certainly plays a role, too. With Reyes and Beltran out to start the year, New York is not off to a good start in that department.
2. David Wright: 2009 was a puzzling season for Wright. Most noticeably, he hit just 10 home runs after smacking at least 26 in four straight seasons. Some of the blame was put on the new Citi Field, which turned out to be justified. In an article in 2010 Hardball Times annual, Greg Rybarczyk uses hit tracker data to show Citi Field cost Wright nine home runs and 35 points of slugging percentage compared with what he would have done at Shea Stadium. On the other hand, Wright hit just five home runs and slugged .458 on the road, so it's not like his power drop was entirely a product of his home park. Apparently, Wright added some muscle in the offseason, to go along with some modifications to Citi Field, so it will be interesting to see if he can revert to form.
3. Jeff Francoeur: One thing about Francoeur that probably appeals to the Mets these days is that he is very durable, having played at least 155 games in four straight seasons. Of course, in only one of those seasons (2007) was Francoeur even a league-average hitter, but the Mets still brought him back for $5 million this year. He did put up pretty good numbers after being brought in from Atlanta mid-season, but the fact is that his BABIP was 62 points higher with New York than Atlanta, meaning it probably had more to do with luck than with changing teams. Francoeur is still Francoeur. He doesn't walk much (or care about OBP) and doesn't hit for a high enough batting average or with enough power to make up for it. But at least he will be able to suit up!

Paint By Numbers: Nobody in the big leagues is capable of keeping their bat on their shoulder like Luis Castillo can. Last season, Castillo had the lowest swing percentage on both pitches in and out of the strike zone. But when he swung, he put the ball in play 93.3 percent of the time, second in MLB. ... Left-handed reliever Pedro Feliciano has been a busy guy the past two years. In that span, he has appeared in 174 games, 13 more than anybody else, although he's only pitched 112 2/3 innings in those appearances. ... The low home run total was not the only strange aspect of Wright's 2009 season. He also had the highest BABIP (.394) in MLB by 10 points, supported by the league's second-highest line drive rate. On the other hand, he struck out 26.2 percent of the time after never topping 20 percent in any other season.

Blog Jog: There has been an interesting debate going on between Mets beat writers, fans and bloggers about whether pitching prospect Jenrry Mejia will/should start the season in the major league bullpen or the minor league starting rotation. ... Brian Mangan at Fonzie Forever wonders if Hisanori Takahashi could be this year's Darren Oliver. ... Greg Prince of Faith and Fear in Flushing offers this essay in the wake of the latest unfortunate news about Doc Gooden.

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