Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 103-59, 1st in AL East (won World Series). Pythagorean record of 95-67.
Key Additions: SP Javier Vazquez, CF Curtis Granderson, DH Nick Johnson, OF Randy Winn, RP Chan Ho Park
Key Losses: LF Johnny Damon, DH Hideki Matsui, OF Melky Cabrera, RPs Phil Coke and Brian Bruney, SP Chien-Ming Wang, C Jose Molina
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 90-72, 3rd in AL East. CHONE – 99-63, 1st. CAIRO – 99.4-62.6, 1st.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.32 FIP (13th in MLB), 4.31 for starters, 4.33 for relievers
2010 – Adding Vazquez strengthens an already solid rotation, assuming he pitches better than he did during his first go-around in the Big Apple. Phil Hughes beat out Joba Chamberlain for the fifth rotation slot, with Joba presumably adding another power arm to the pen. Mariano Rivera, now 40 years old, is a freak of nature and about as good as ever.
Hitting: 2009 – .366 wOBA (1st in MLB)
2010 – The Yanks were by far the best offensive team in baseball last season, and there's no reason they can't be again with the lineup they can put on the field. When you can play eight above-average hitters every day, the only thing that is going to derail you is an injury bug.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -18.5 (19th in MLB)
2010 – New York should have a strong defensive outfield with the additions of Granderson and Winn. Derek Jeter, who posted his first positive UZR last season since the metric started in 2002, will look to continue his improved defensive play.

Reasons to Watch
1. Phil Hughes: Hughes was just named as the team's No. 5 starter to begin the season, apparently with a revamped changeup in tow. He's been a top prospect for a while now and had a lot of success in the minors but has yet to prove he can be an effective starter at the major league level. Still, Hughes is only entering his age 24 season and has made just 28 MLB starts, having spent most of last season in the bullpen. In other words, it's far too early to judge. Still, Hughes hasn't thrown more than 116 innings in a season since 2006, so it's worth wondering if he'll be able to stay in the rotation full-time even if he's effective.
2. Curtis Granderson: The trade that sent Granderson over from Detroit puts the Yankees' new center fielder in a better lineup and a great park for left-handed hitters. It will be interesting to see if those factors help turn around a career that has been on the decline. Granderson's wOBA has fallen from .395 to .374 to .340 over the past three years, a pretty steep drop, and at 29 it's not inconceivable that his best days are behind him. Part of the problem is that his career OPS against lefties is .614, and it's been below .500 two of the past three years. He also suffered from a low BABIP last season, but that can be partially attributed to him hitting the ball in the air much more than in years past. The question is, will Granderson's downward trend continue, or will the Yankees (and their stadium) provide a boost?
3. Brett Gardner: Gardner is in an odd position. In a lineup of sluggers, he's the little guy who is playing primarily for his glove, rather than his bat. Gardner has only played 150 major league games, and while that's not enough to draw any definitive conclusions, he's put up a 19.9 UZR. And that was done mostly in center, a more difficult position than left, where he'll play this season to accommodate Granderson. What's more, Gardner is not completely inept with the bat. Sure, he has very little power. But he managed a better than awful .724 OPS year and does have a career .389 minor league OBP. That's really not the point, though. The Yanks have so much offensive firepower that they can easily afford to give up some offense for defense, and Gardner fits the bill.

Paint By Numbers: Even with Gardner's three career home runs, New York's projected starting lineup boasts an average of 178 career dingers. ... The last two seasons, at ages 38 and 39, Mariano Rivera has put up his two best K/9 rates since becoming a closer in 1997. A lot of that success is of course based on his devastating cutter, a pitch everyone knows is coming but nobody can hit. Even though Rivera is a reliever, his cutter has racked up more value (55.6 runs) than anybody else's over the past three years, according to FanGraphs' pitch values. ... Last season, Javier Vazquez was third in MLB in FIP, third in K/BB rate, third in WHIP and fifth in opponents' batting average. On the other hand, his previous season with the Yankees was the worst of his career with the exception of his rookie year in Montreal. With New York in 2004, he posted a 4.78 FIP.

Blog Jog: Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues examines some spray charts in an effort to determine how much Gardner's thumb injury impacted his hitting late last season. Mike Axisa of the same site takes a look at the Yankees' defensive projections. ... The guys at Pinstripe Alley weigh in on the decision to put Hughes in the rotation over Joba. .... Moshe Mandel of The Yankee U wonders if the "Hughes Rules" are coming. ... Was Watching's Steve Lombardi projects the Yankees' Opening Day roster and gives his thoughts.

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