Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 93-69, 1st in NL East (lost in World Series). Pythagorean record of 92-70.
Key Additions: SP Roy Halladay, 3B Placido Polanco, C Brian Schneider, RPs Danys Baez, Jose Contreras, IB/OF Ross Gload
Key Losses: SPs Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, 3B Pedro Feliz, RPs Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre and Brett Myers, PH Matt Stairs, C Paul Bako
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 90-72, 1st in NL East. CHONE – 87-75, 2nd (Wildcard). CAIRO – 91.7-70.3, 1st.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.36 FIP (17th in MLB), 4.46 for starters, 4.17 for relievers
2010 – Halladay is an upgrade over Lee, but not a huge one. Cole Hamels should have a better season than he did in 2009, although J.A. Happ will have a hard time repeating his rookie numbers. Brad Lidge, looking to rebound from an awful season, will begin this year on the DL.
Hitting: 2009 – .340 wOBA (5th in MLB)
2010 – The Phillies have one of the best, most dynamic offenses in the game and will benefit from subtracting Feliz in favor of Polanco. The Yankees might be the only team with a better offensive infield.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of 27.9 (8th in MLB)
2010 – Feliz was a solid defensive third baseman, while Polanco hasn't played the position since 2005. Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins form a great middle infield, while Jayson Werth is superb in right field.

Reasons to Watch
1. Jamie Moyer: It looks like Moyer is going to be the Phillies' No. 5 starter to begin the season. As Rob Neyer points out, this puts him in basically uncharted territory for a 47-year-old. It's not likely Moyer will be very effective at his age, but then again, the odds were strongly against him being around at all at this point. It's a unique situation and definitely one to follow.
2. Brad Lidge: Lidge, who has undergone surgeries on his knee and elbow, is not going to be ready for the beginning of the season (along with fellow reliever J.C. Romero). The question is how he will pitch one he's back. Philly's closer has been on a roller coaster in recent years, going from a 1.95 ERA and 41-for-41 in saves in 2008 to 7.21 and 31-for-42 last season, when his knee apparently bothered him a lot. Lidge at the top of his game would be a boon for the Phillies' bullpen, but it's far from clear he will get back to that point.
3. Roy Halladay: Doc has enjoyed a long and successful career already, with a Cy Young Award, a pair of 20-win seasons and a 3.43 ERA, among other accomplishments. Yet in all his years in Toronto, the Blue Jays finished better than third in their division once. That was in 2006, when they finished 10 games behind the Yankees and eight behind the Tigers in the wild card race. If things go according to plan though, Halladay will finally get to pitch in the playoffs in 2010, a just reward for a great pitcher.

Paint By Numbers: Chase Utley, with his combination of elite hitting and stellar fielding at a premium position, put up the fourth-highest wins above replacement total in 2009. For good measure, Utley led the majors in HBP, with seven more than anyone else, and stole 23 bases without being caught. Nobody else swiped more than 12 bags while having a perfect percentage. ... Ryan Howard had the second-highest rate of home runs per fly ball even though his 25.4 percent mark was the lowest he has put up in a full season. ... Cole Hamels' ERA jumped from 3.09 to 4.32 last season, but his FIP was 3.72, exactly the same as the year before. His BABIP jumped from .270 to .325, but if it comes back down in 2010 as it should, Hamels should return to something like his 2008 performance.

Blog Jog: Crashburn Alley's Bill Baer previews the Phillies for The Hardball Times. Included is a deeper explanation of why Hamels is due for a rebound. ... At Crashburn Alley, Baer takes Eric Polsky's work with "DVORP" -- Dollar Value Over Replacement Player -- and puts a Phillies spin on it. ... Dash Treyhorn of The Fightins discusses Moyer as the team's fifth starter and what effect that would have on the rest of the pitching staff. ... The Good Phight has an in-depth look at the Phillies' options regarding the contract situations of Ryan Howard and Jason Werth.

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