Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 62-99, 6th in NL Central. Pythagorean record of 67-94.
Key Additions: 2B Akinori Iwamura, SS Bobby Crosby, OF Ryan Church, RPs Octavio Dotel, Brendan Donnelly and Javier Lopez
Key Losses: RPs Jesse Chavez and Matt Capps
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 70-92, 6th in NL Central. CHONE – 74-88, 5th. CAIRO – 73.6-88.4, 5th.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.48 FIP (22nd in MLB), 4.42 for starters, 4.61 for relievers
2010 – Paul Maholm is a solid big league pitcher but frankly wouldn't be a No. 1 starter on most teams. Things get increasingly thin after him. Pittsburgh is hoping veterans like Dotel and Donnelly can help stabilize a bullpen that struggled mightily last season.
Hitting: 2009 – .310 wOBA (28th in MLB)
2010 – It looks like the Pirates have something special in center fielder Andrew McCutchen, but there's really nobody in this lineup who is anything close to a lock for a productive 2010. Guys like Andy LaRoche and Lastings Milledge are going to start running out of chances to show they can hit at the big league level.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of 30.1(7th in MLB)
2010 – The Pirates lost a bunch of solid fielders during their in-season purge last year, namely Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez and Nyjer Morgan. McCutchen has the athletic ability to be a great center fielder, but it's fairly difficult to project how this group will fare in 2010.

Reasons to Watch
1. Bobby Crosby: It seems like an awfully long time ago that Crosby was the AL Rookie of the Year with Oakland and a future star in the making. That was back in 2004. Since then, injuries have kept Crosby to less than 100 games in all but one season, and when he has been in the lineup, he hasn't hit. He's never been much of a contact hitter, and his power seemingly has evaporated. Crosby is now 30 and no longer possesses the high ceiling he once did, but it will be interesting to see what he can do if healthy, including possibly taking the starting shortstop job from Ronny Cedeno.
2. Jeff Clement: Clement also had big-time potential but never even reached Crosby's heights in the Majors. He was Seattle's No. 1 prospect according to Baseball America in 2006, but in 2008, he hit .227/.295/.360 in 224 plate appearances. The Pirates picked him up as part of the Jack Wilson trade and have converted him to first base, where he apparently is the front-runner for the Opening Day job. Clement won't turn 27 until August, and CHONE projects him to hit .264/.342/.460. That would look a lot better behind the plate than at first, but the Pirates need all the solid bats they can accumulate, no matter the position.
3. Garrett Jones: Going into last season, Jones was 28, and his big league experience was limited to 84 ineffective plate appearances for the Twins in 2007. So it's fair to say nobody predicted that Jones would get called up at the beginning of July and proceed to knock the cover off the ball for the rest of the season. The damage: .293/.372/.567 line and 21 home runs in 358 plate appearances. Now the question is if he can keep it up. CHONE projects a tumble, from last season's .396 wOBA to a .346 mark. It will be up to Jones to surprise us again.

Paint By Numbers: Of the 10 players with the most plate appearances for the Bucs in 2009, four were traded during the season. ... Jones' 21 long balls last season is a single-season high among the Pirates' projected starters this year. Of players likely to be a part of the team's active roster to begin the season, only Crosby (22 HR in '04) can top that number. ... Paul Maholm induced 28 double-play grounders last season, tied for second in MLB, thanks to his sinker, which helped him produce a ground ball rate of 52.1 percent. ... Octavio Dotel, now on his eighth team since coming up in 1999, apparently will be Pittsburgh's closer. Dotel is just 19-for-34 in save opportunities since going 36-for-45 in 2004.

Blog Jog: Charlie at Bucs Dugout explains why the team's performance on the field this season should not be relevant to the futures of manager John Russell or (especially) GM Neal Huntington. ... Smitty of Rum Bunter offers 10 reasons why Andrew McCutchen is the face of the franchise. ... Pat Lackey of Where Have You Gone Andy Van Slyke takes a look at the pros and cons of the Pirates' new batting order.

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