Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 75-87, 4th in NL West. Pythagorean record of 67-95.
Key Additions: SP Jon Garland, C Yorvit Torrealba, PH Matt Stairs, OF Scott Hairston, UTIL Jerry Hairston, Jr.
Key Losses: 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, RF Brian Giles, C Henry Blanco, IF Edgar Gonzalez
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 73-89, 5th in NL West. CHONE – 78-84, 4th. CAIRO – 77.9-84.1, 5th.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.30 FIP (12th in MLB), 4.59 for starters, 3.85 for relievers
2010 – The Padres' rotation is unspectacular but should be solid, especially in its home park. Adding Jon Garland and getting a healthy Chris Young back should provide a lot of innings, and San Diego has some intriguing young arms in Mat Latos and Wade LeBlanc, among others.
Hitting: 2009 – .310 wOBA (29th in MLB)
2010 – San Diego has one elite hitter, at least until it eventually trades Adrian Gonzalez. Big Kyle Blanks can mash, and Chase Headley has about an .800 career OPS on the road. Unfortunately for him, he still has to play at Petco Park half the time.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -13.4(14th in MLB)
2010 – It's certainly questionable if Blanks -- at 6-foot-6, 270 pounds -- is really a viable outfielder in the long term, but he's likely there only until the Pads unload Gonzalez, at which point Blanks would move to first base. Headley is much better off at third base, his natural position, now that Kevin Kouzmanoff is in Oakland.

Reasons to Watch
1. Adrian Gonzalez: Gonzalez has become an excellent hitter, even playing half his games at Petco, but the most interesting thing about him this season will be watching where he ends up. Of course, Gonzalez has two years left on his contract at a very affordable rate, so he does not necessarily have to go anywhere. But the Padres don't figure to contend and clearly are rebuilding. Considering how cheap and good Gonzalez is, they likely could get an excellent group of prospects for him to help in that cause. It would be nice to see Gonzalez stay at home and help turn the Pads back around, but that doesn't seem like a likely scenario.
2. Kyle Blanks: Blanks looks like he belongs on the Chargers' defensive line, but that would be a bit of a waste, because he can really hit a baseball. Blanks played 54 games with the big club last season and struck out 37.2% of the time but also hit 10 home runs and slugged .514. In 2007 and 2008 in the minor leagues, he put up slugging percentages of .540 and .514, so the power is real, which is not hard to believe given his frame.
3. Heath Bell: Bell is one of the best examples of how a guy doesn't have to be an established closer to step in and do the job. The Padres needed someone to finish games last season after letting Trevor Hoffman leave, so they turned to Bell, who had two career saves in five seasons. All he did was save 42 games in 48 chances with a 2.42 FIP. Now of course, he might be on the move sometime this season to a team looking for an established closer. If he does get traded, whatever team acquires him will be adding a very entertaining guy.

Paint By Numbers: Of Blanks' 10 home runs last season, five traveled at least 420 feet, according to data on Hit Tracker Online. Perhaps more impressively considering his size, one of Blanks' homers was of the inside-the-park variety. ... Shortstop Everth Cabrera made 23 errors last season, the second-most of any player, even though he played fewer than 900 innings. No other player with that few innings made more than 14 errors. ... If Matt Stairs makes the team this spring and steps on the field for the Padres this season, he will tie a Major League record by appearing with his 12th different team. If Stairs homers for the Pads, it will be the 11th different team he's hit at least one long ball for, tying a record held by Todd Zeile.

Blog Jog: Geoff Young answers five questions about the Padres for The Hardball Times. ... Over at Ducksnorts, Young talks about what he's seen this March. ... Daniel Gettinger of Friars Forecast makes a case for trading Heath Bell. ... Dave Cameron explains why San Diego is No. 27 in FanGraphs' organizational rankings.

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