Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 91-71, 1st in NL Central. Pythagorean record of 91-71.
Key Additions: IF Felipe Lopez, SPs Brad Penny and Rich Hill
Key Losses: SPs Joel Pineiro, John Smoltz and Todd Wellemeyer, 3B/OF Mark DeRosa, OF Rick Ankiel, IFs Joe Thurston and Khalil Greene
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 87-75, 1st in NL Central. CHONE – 91-71, 1st. CAIRO – 90.6-71.4, 1st.

Pitching: 2009 – 3.82 FIP (3rd in MLB), 3.61 for starters, 4.30 for relievers
2010 – A lot will depend on Chris Carpenter's ability to remain healthy for most of the season. Penny is unlikely to fully replace Pineiro's production, but you never know what will happen with the Dave Duncan Magic. A bigger concern is the bullpen, which is solid from the left side but shaky from the right, especially if closer Ryan Franklin struggles as he did down the stretch in '09.
Hitting: 2009 – .325 wOBA (19th in MLB)
2010 – When you have the undisputed best hitter in the game, that always helps. But with Matt Holliday remaining in the fold along with Ryan Ludwick and a promising Colby Rasmus, among others, Pujols isn't going to have to do it by himself. The biggest question is if rookie David Freese can hold down the everyday third base job, but Lopez will be there if he can't.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -17.8 (18th in MLB)
2010 – With Rasmus in center field and Brendan Ryan at shortstop, St. Louis has a pair of excellent up-the-middle defenders, and second baseman Skip Schumaker made big strides last season in his move from the outfield. Catcher defense is hard to quantify, but there doesn't seem to be any argument against ranking Yadier Molina among the top few at his position.

Reasons to Watch
1. Albert Pujols: As I discussed a while back, it's amazing to actually look at the stats and see just how much better Pujols has been anyone else over the past nine years. And it's not just the hitting. It's also the fact that he's made himself into a plus defender at his third big league position and the way he runs the bases so aggressively. Crude interpretations of his last name aside, there's not a whole lot anyone (even Cubs fans) can say against him.
2. Chris Carpenter: Carp's tenure in St. Louis has been fantastic, except for the pesky detail of almost two full seasons missed due to injury. Yet having pitched 21 1/3 big league innings since 2006, he came back strong last year, making 28 starts with a 2.78 FIP. The fact is, when he's on the mound, Carpenter is one of the best pitchers around. It's probably not wise to count on him for 30-plus starts in 2010, but Cardinals fans are certainly keeping their fingers crossed. Carp missing significant time would be a big blow to the playoff chances of a team most are picking to repeat at NL Central champs.
3. Yadier Molina: As fun as it is to watch a guy like Pujols come into the league smashing pitches all over the park and never stop, there's also something special about watching a guy make himself into a decent hitter through a lot of hard work. Such is the case with Molina. Strong defensive catchers can play 15 years in the big leagues without being able to hit, and Molina is one of the best behind the plate. Seeing him pick a runner off first base with a perfectly placed throw is a thing of beauty. But Molina clearly wasn't content with being all-glove, no-bat, which he most certainly was earlier in his career (2006 NLCS heroics aside). Starting with that '06 season, Molina's wOBA has climbed from .261 to .311 to .323 to .337 last season, a very solid output for a catcher. Yadi still doesn't hit for much power, but he puts the ball in play a lot and takes a fair number of walks. It's been quite a transformation.

Paint By Numbers: Rasmus posted a solid 12.7% walk rate at Triple-A Memphis in 2008, but shed that patient approach upon arriving in the majors last season, walking at a 6.9 percent clip. That included a stretch from May 26 through July 4 when Rasmus did not draw a single free pass. He did walk twice as much in the second half of the season, however. ... Skip Schumaker was easily the most extreme ground ball hitter in the majors last season, when he led all qualified hitters with a 61 percent ground ball rate and finished last with a 17.5 percent fly ball rate. ... In 2009, his third season as a big league starting pitcher, Adam Wainwright improved his strikeout rate by about two per nine innings, to 8.19. One factor might have been Wainwright's terrific curveball, which he threw significantly more than he had previously as a starter. The pitch was worth 23.3 runs according to FanGraphs' pitch value data, making it the second-best curve in the game last season, behind Wandy Rodriguez's.

Blog Jog: At Viva El Birdos, DanUpBaby discusses which Cardinals might really be in the proverbial "best shape of their lives" this season and looks back at the team's recent history with fifth starters. ... St. Louis Post-Dispatch beat writer Derrick Goold shares a humorous anecdote about pitching coach Dave Duncan on the Bird Land blog. ... Over at Fungoes, Pip wonders if the Cards' right-handed relief pitching should really be a concern. ... The Cardinals come in at No. 10 in FanGraphs' organizational rankings, and Dave Cameron explores the reasons why.

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