Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 87-75, 2nd in AL West. Pythagorean record of 85-77.
Key Additions: SPs Rich Harden and Colby Lewis, OF/DH Vladimir Guerrero, IF Andres Blanco, RPs Darren Oliver and Chris Ray, 1B Ryan Garko (as of today)
Key Losses: SP Kevin Millwood, CF Marlon Byrd, C Ivan Rodriguez, OF/DH Andruw Jones, UTIL Hank Blalock, SS Omar Vizquel, RP Eddie Guardado
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 83-79, tied for 1st in AL West. CHONE – 86-76, 1st. CAIRO – 81.4-80.6, 2nd.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.49 FIP (22nd in MLB), 4.71 for starters, 4.05 for relievers
2010 – For a team planning to contend for a playoff spot this season, the Rangers face an awful lot of uncertainty with their starting rotation. Rich Harden has trouble staying healthy, Colby Lewis is just back from Japan and C.J. Wilson hasn't started a game since 2005. The rest of the group, besides Opening Day starter Scott Feldman, is relatively unproven. The flame-throwing Neftali Feliz is one to watch in the bullpen.
Hitting: 2009 – .333 wOBA (10th in MLB)
2010 – The Rangers have a great ball park in which to hit, and some good bats, led by second baseman Ian Kinsler. The biggest questions are if Chris Davis can put things together, Josh Hamilton can stay relatively healthy and if Vlad Guerrero has anything left in the tank.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of 32.5 (6th in MLB)
2010 – Elvis Andrus looks like the next great defensive shortstop, and Julio Borbon has the speed to cover a ton of ground in center field. If Hamilton is healthy to go along with Borbon and Nelson Cruz, Texas could have a very strong defensive outfield. It will be interesting to see if Kinsler's career year at second last season is truly indicative of an improved skill level.

Reasons to Watch
1. Colby Lewis: The Rangers drafted Lewis in the first round of the 1999 draft, but he didn't succeed with the Rangers or anyone else in his first go-around in the majors. In 72 games and 34 starts between 2002 and 2007, Lewis posted a 6.71 ERA before heading off to pitch for the Hiroshima Carp. In two seasons there, he picked up two strikeout titles and notched a 2.83 ERA. Now Lewis is back in Texas and figures to get a shot at holding down a rotation spot. It remains to be seen if the strides Lewis seems to have made in Japan stick against the tougher American competition, but if Lewis indeed has salvaged his career, it will be a nice story.
2. Josh Hamilton: Nobody needs another rehashing of Hamilton's history, but suffice it to say, he and his body have been through a lot. And for all his natural ability and renewed dedication to the sport, it's just not clear if that body will hold up for long. It did in 2008, but not last season. A move to left field might relieve some of the burden, and if Hamilton can stay healthy, he clearly can be a force in the Texas lineup.
3. Chris Davis: As someone who drafted Davis in two fantasy leagues last season, I am all too familiar with his rough 2009. Davis showed tremendous promise in a half-season in 2008, but his hack-tastic approach got out of hand in his second go-around. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances, Davis' 38.4% strikeout rate was second-highest behind Mark Reynolds, while his 0.16 BB/K ratio was third-worst. The big first baseman clearly possesses a ton of power, but he's going to have to improve his approach at the plate in order to enjoy a successful big league career.

Paint By Numbers: Batters hit .124 against Neftali Feliz in his rookie season and struck out 39 times in 31 innings. Feliz had by far the lowest line drive rate of any pitcher with at least 30 innings, at 4.6%. ... Andrus and Kinsler tied with Detroit's Adam Everett and Placido Polanco for best combined UZR for a SS-2B combo last season. ... Of the Ranger's theoretical top eight starting pitchers, only Scott Feldman and Rich Harden have started 25 major league games in a season since 2003. That group averaged about 16 starts last season and nine the year before.

Blog Jog: Baseball Time in Arlington's Joey Matschulat dives into a deep discussion of the Rangers' injury concerns, while BTIA's Josh Garoon explores the "utility of the utility infielder." ... Adam J. Morris of Lone Star Ball ponders the options for the Rangers' final bullpen slot. ... Within this piece about the possibility of Texas trading for Mike Lowell, Rob Neyer says the Rangers are his pick to win the AL West this season. ... The Rangers placed fourth in FanGraphs' organizational rankings.

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