Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 75-87, 4th in AL East. Pythagorean record of 84-78.
Key Additions: SS Alex Gonzalez, Cs John Buck and Jose Molina, SP Brendan Morrow, RP Kevin Gregg
Key Losses: SP Roy Halladay, SS Marco Scutaro, RP Brandon League, C Rod Barajas
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 72-90, 5th in AL East. CHONE – 68-94, 5th. CAIRO – 64.3-97.7, 5th.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.35 FIP (15th in MLB), 4.42 for starters, 4.21 for relievers
2010 – Halladay leaves a gaping hole in the rotation that isn't going to be filled. Shaun Marcum is solid but also is coming off Tommy John surgery, and with Marc Rzepczynksi now hurt, the rotation's depth took a big blow. The organization features some intriguing arms, but it's hard to see how they're going to keep those AL East lineups contained this season.
Hitting: 2009 – .337 wOBA (8th in MLB)
2010 – The trio of Adam Lind, Travis Snider and Aaron Hill is the best thing this organization has going right now. Vernon Wells has been terrible with the bat two of the past three years, and although he's being paid like a franchise cornerstone, he's obviously not one.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -33.3 (25th in MLB)
2010 – Wells simply doesn't belong in center field anymore, but the Jays don't have anyone else to put there. Edwin Encarnacion has been brutal four straight seasons at third base. At least the middle infield combo of Hill and Gonzalez should be solid.

Reasons to Watch
1. Vernon Wells: Wells is going to make $12.5 million this season, $23 million in 2011 and then $21 million in each of the three seasons after that, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. Plus, he has a full no-trade clause. For a team trying to rebuild now like the Blue Jays, that would be a burdensome contract even if Wells was worth the money, which he clearly is not. According to FanGraphs' valuation system, Wells has been worth $10.4 million over the past three seasons combined, and has been worth more than $12 million in a season only once in his career. Not surprisingly, that was in 2006, right before he signed his mega-deal. That deal is already set in stone as an enormous blunder, so it's now a matter of damage control for Wells. If he can find a way to at least return to being an above average hitter, and if the Blue Jays can find a way to move him to a corner outfield spot, it would take a bit of the sting out of the situation.
2. Aaron Hill: 2009 was a breakout season for Hill, as he slugged 36 home runs to more than double his career high. Considering the rest of their lineup, the Jays need Hill to crush the ball again this year, but the various projection systems don't see it happening. CHONE, ZiPS, Marcel and Bill James are all projecting 19 to 21 homers and a slugging percentage in the .450 to .460 range. That would still make Hill a very good offensive second baseman, but with some of the other guys in the lineup being what they are, Toronto needs its top performers to be at their best.
3. Travis Snider: Snider is 22 and has absolutely destroyed minor league pitching (he slugged .663 in about 200 plate appearances at Triple-A Las Vegas last season). The major leagues haven't been so kind to him, however. Last season in 276 MLB plate appearances, Snider went .241/.328/.419 with a strikeout rate above 30%. He probably will always be a big strikeout hitter, but anyone this young, with this type of power and patience at the plate, is likely to develop into a fine hitter. If Snider does that, Toronto will have a great one-two punch in the middle of the order with him and Adam Lind.

Paint By Numbers: Hill, who played in 158 games last season, led the majors with 734 plate appearances, five more than Chone Figgins. ... FanGraphs has a statistic called Win Probability Added (WPA), which measures a team's chances of winning at the start of a play, compared with at the end, then assigns the difference to the hitter and pitcher. Over the course of last season, Wells racked up a total of negative 2.55 WPA, worst in the majors among qualified players. ... According to this FanGraphs post, the Jays have a greater percentage of their payroll going to players no longer with the team than any other organization.

Blog Jog: Bluebird Banter offers up a three-part series that delves into the keys for the Blue Jays' 2010 season. Here are parts one, two and three. ... The Tao of Stieb reacts to the Jays finalizing their rotation, with lefty Dana Eveland getting the No. 5 spot. ... At Drunk Jays Fans, there is some unhappiness with the decision to put Brian Tallet in the rotation. ... Toronto came in at No. 26 in FanGraphs' organizational rankings.

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