Hitting The Cutoff Man

Baseball players, particularly ones who have not yet played a Major League game, are often built up to mythic proportions.

It's often said that people fear the unknown, but baseball fans in particular also take the unknown, wrap it in hyperbole and set themselves up for disappointment. Speaking partly from personal experience, I can attest to the fact that fringe prospects can become franchise saviors in a fan's mind.

But what is going on right now with Braves 20-year-old outfield prospect Jason Heyward is something else entirely. Heyward was a first-round pick in 2007, and going into last season, Baseball America rated him the game's No. 5 prospect. Then the 6-foot-4, 220-pound lefty went out and hit .323/.408/.555 at three minor league levels.

Expected to compete for a big league roster spot in Spring Training, Heyward is denting cars in the parking lot of the Braves' facility with his mammoth batting practice shots and drawing comparisons to Hank Aaron.

And so, the myth gains steam.

But is the man equal to the myth, or even in the neighborhood? Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wonders if expectations are too high for the rookie, although he finds Heyward possesses an uncommon maturity that so far has left him unfazed by the attention he's getting.

Still, it's worth wondering, what is a reasonable expectation for Heyward this season?

FanGraphs lists two projections for Heyward, from Bill James and CHONE, and they vary pretty significantly. The James system sees a line of .303/.371/.465, compared with CHONE's much more conservative .258/.324/.416.

Of course, you have to take those numbers with a grain of salt, especially with a rookie whose amount of playing time has not yet been decided.

So I thought it might be informative to look at some other prospects who came up around the same age, and see what they were able to do at the plate as rookies.

Ken Griffey, Jr., 1989, 19 years old -- .264/.329/.420 in 455 AB

Alex Rodriguez, 1994, 19 years old -- .204/.241/.204 in 54 AB.
1995, 20 years old -- .232/.264/.408 in 142 AB.

Andruw Jones, 1996, 19 years old -- .217/.265/.443 in 106 AB
1997, 20 years old -- .231/.329/.416 in 399 AB

Justin Upton, 2007, 20 years old -- .221/.283/.364 in 140 AB

Albert Pujols, 2001, 21 years old -- .329/.403/.610 in 590 AB

That's just a sampling, but it gives you an idea of what Heyward is up against.

He could, as some seem to expect, be another rookie Pujols. It's more likely that he will spend some time in the minors this year and struggle a bit in The Show. That's just how it works -- most of the time.

Then again, there are exceptions, which is what feeds to mythology in the first place. And that's part of what makes baseball great.