Hitting The Cutoff Man

Opening Day provides all 30 teams and 750 players with a clean slate. This is certainly part of the romanticism that surrounds it -- everyone gets a fresh start, a rebirth, if you will.

But the other effect is that it amplifies whatever happens. Doing something particularly good or bad on Opening Day compared with in the middle of July is like the difference between doodling your name on wall that's freshly painted white and doing it on one already covered in graffiti.

Of course, what happens on Opening Day doesn't necessarily mean anything more than what happens on July 17 or September 4 or May 23 or any other day during the season. They're all just one game and to read too much into the results is to fall victim to the allure of small sample sizes.

But that can't stop us from having a little fun with the numbers.

Event: Jason Heyward crushes a huge home run in his first major league at-bat, goes 2-for-5 in debut.
Reaction: He's the Second Coming! If he keeps hitting a home run in every game, he'll break the home run record sometime around the end of the 2014 season.
Reality: About that home run -- if you haven't seen it, you should. It was absolutely crushed, as was the single Heyward picked up later in the game. It's also impressive how Heyward was able to focus enough to perform given all the hype, playing his first big league game at home and catching the first pitch from none other than Hank Aaron. That said, A LOT of players have hit home runs in their first at-bat. In the past few years, the list of guys who have done it includes Mark Saccomanno, Lou Montanez, Charlton Jimerson and fellow Braves outfield prospect Jordan Schafer. The point is, as amazing a moment as Heyward's bomb was, it's fairly meaningless in terms of his long-term outlook. It's quite likely the home run will be the opening chapter of a great career, but as we've seen time and time again, there are no guarantees.

Event: Placido Polanco hit a grand slam and drove in six runs as the Phillies predictably pummeled the Nationals.
Reaction: Polanco is now on pace for a record 972 RBI!
Reality: It certainly was a nice day for Polanco, who is what some might call "a professional hitter." Of course, all of these guys are professional hitters, so I'm not sure what that means. But I think it's getting at the fact that Polanco handles the bat well, makes contact, moves runners over and generally gives you a solid at-bat. He should do all of those things well for the Phillies, and in this lineup, he'll probably put up some good numbers, even at his age. What he almost certainly will not do is finish in even the top three or maybe four on his own team in home runs or RBIs.

Event: Zack Greinke leaves the Royals' game against the Tigers with a 4-2 lead after six innings, only to see his bullpen cough up six runs in the seventh.
Reaction: It's going to be tough for Greinke to repeat as the AL Cy Young winner if he wins zero games this season.
Reality: Well, it's not like the Royals were good last year when Greinke managed to win enough games (16) to convince the stodgy voting corps of the BBWAA to give him the award he clearly deserved. But would it be surprising if Greinke pitched brilliantly again, only to win just 10-12 games this season? No. If he can get his leads safely to closer Joakim Soria, he should be fine. But with an offense that is going to struggle to score and a group of middle relief arsonists, Greinke certainly could have grounds to sue for lack of support.

Event: Carlos Zambrano gives up eight runs in 1 1/3 innings, and the bullpen gives up eight more in the Cubs' embarrassing 16-5 loss to the Braves.
Reaction: Wait 'til next year.
Reality: Take a step away from the ledge, Cubs fans. Two years ago, the Phillies lost to the Nationals 11-6 on Opening Day, then went on to win the World Series. Now, this Chicago team doesn't necessarily compare to that Philly team, but the point stands. One bad game is just one bad game, and even if Monday felt like a continuation of the nightmarish 2009 (minus Milton Bradley), it wasn't. Most projections do have the Cubs falling short of the playoffs, and it's hard to argue that at this point. The bullpen is certainly a concern, and Zambrano might be too, to a lesser extent. But that hardly means the Cubbies will end the season where they are now -- behind the Pirates in the standings.

Event: Albert Pujols goes 4-for-5, homers twice in Cardinals' win over Reds.
Reaction: He's the best hitter in baseball!
Reality: He's the best hitter in baseball!

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