Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 75-87, 4th in AL West. Pythagorean record of 81-81.
Key Additions: SP Ben Sheets, 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, CF Coco Crisp, IF/OF Jake Fox, IF Adam Rosales
Key Losses: OF Scott Hairston, IF Nomar Garciaparra and Adam Kennedy
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 83-79, 1st in AL West. CHONE – 81-81, tied 2nd. CAIRO – 77.6-84.4, 4th.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.10 FIP (6th in MLB), 4.58 for starters, 3.35 for relievers
2010 – The success of the rotation is going to hinge on whether Ben Sheets can stay healthy and pitch effectively, the latter of which he has not done this spring, for whatever that's worth. Oakland does have some good young arms to pair with Sheets, particularly 22-year-old lefty Brett Anderson. It's unlikely that the A's again will have the best bullpen in baseball by a big margin.
Hitting: 2009 – .321 wOBA (22nd in MLB)
2010 – The A's have some solid hitters but are distinctly lacking in firepower. The only player on last year's team to put up even an .800 OPS was Matt Holliday, who was traded mid-season. Free agent signees Kouzmanoff and Crisp might help, but if the A's show much improvement with the bats, it's likely going to be because young hitters like Daric Barton and Ryan Sweeney took steps forward.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of 5.2 (12th in MLB)
2010 – Outfield defense figures to be one of Oakland's strongest assets. With Crisp, Sweeney and Rajai Davis, the A's have three guys with good range. For that matter, Barton, Kouzmanoff and second baseman Mark Ellis are solid glove men as well, giving Oakland strong infield defense as well.

Reasons to Watch
1. Ben Sheets: It was interesting watching the A's, of all teams, outbid several other clubs this offseason for Sheets' services. It was probably a risk worth taking for Billy Beane, because Sheets has been an excellent pitcher when healthy. The problem is that since 2005, he's started 22, 17, 24, 31 and 0 games due to injuries. Yet in a division that figures to pit the A's against three solid teams, it's difficult to envision a playoff run that doesn't include something close to 30 effective starts from Sheets.
2. Daric Barton: Barton was a star catching prospect in the St. Louis organization who came to Oakland along with Dan Haren and Kiko Calero in the Mark Mulder trade. Since 2005, he's switched to first base and established himself defensively there, but been unable to swing the bat up to expectations at the big league level. Barton now has about 800 MLB plate appearances with a line of .249/.348/.394, and while he has good plate discipline, it now seems unlikely he's ever going to develop much power. If he can get the batting average and OBP up, he can still put together a solid career, but he's going to have to get it going soon.
3. Brett Anderson: After getting a few good seasons from Haren, Beane moved him along to Arizona, getting Anderson as one of the players in return. The southpaw got a chance to stick in the big league rotation last season at age 21 and wound up starting 30 games with a 3.69 FIP. Anderson, with a strong fastball/slider combo, showed an ability to get strikeouts and ground balls while avoiding walks. He posted a 3.33 K/BB ratio, and his ground ball rate topped 50%, strong indicators of continued success. Anderson didn't get as much attention as some other young pitchers, but his future looks just as bright.

Paint By Numbers: Jack Cust might as well be named Mr. Three True Outcomes, for his ability to turn an amazing percentage of his plate appearances into strikeouts, walks and home runs (aka, the three outcomes not affected by fielders). As FanGraphs' Matt Klaassen found, over the past three seasons, Cust has done of those three things in 54.4% of his plate appearances, by far the most of any player in that span, even Adam Dunn. The A's brought Cust back this season, so if you're not a fan of the defense getting involved in the game, rejoice. ... Mike Wuertz's 2.37 FIP last season was fourth among MLB relievers. Wuertz struck out better than 11.5 batters per nine innings and had nearly a 4.5 K/BB rate, by far the best numbers of his big league career. The key was Wuertz's slider, which was worth more runs than any other relief pitcher's last season.

Blog Jog: Athletics Nation examines the battle for the final couple of Opening Day roster spots. ... The San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser provides an update on Ben Sheets' latest Spring Training performance. ... The A's come in at No. 19 in FanGraphs' organizational rankings, and Dave Cameron explains why. ... ESPN.com's Max Info blog (insider only) has the scoop on why Ryan Sweeney bears watching. ... Rob Neyer comments on the ongoing saga of the franchise's potential relocation.

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It's already been a tough Spring Training for injuries.

We've had Alex Gordon and Russell Martin go down with a broken thumb and a pulled groin respectively, issues that will keep them out for at least a few weeks. Cubs set-up man Angel Guzman tore a ligament in his shoulder, and Joe Nathan tore one in his elbow, with both pitchers' seasons likely finished.

It's certainly a shame -- for those players, and for the fantasy players owners who have drafted them (this is why you don't hold your draft this early).

Yet I've been focused more on a guy who's now hurt -- at least not now.

The news out of A's camp is that Eric Chavez is working out at first base. It's an effort to increase the ways Chavez can get playing time this season, as Oakland has a glut of corner infielders, including Kevin Kouzmanoff and Jake Fox, plus Jack Cust penciled in at DH.

It's nice that the A's are trying to make room for a guy who not so long ago was a franchise cornerstone, and good for Chavez for giving the move a shot. But the whole thing makes me kind of sad.

Every season from 2000 through 2003, Chavez played at least 150 games and put up an OPS between .850 and .900. Starting in 2001, he won six straight Gold Glove awards (from 2002-06, his UZR at third was 34.8, suggesting he was well above average at the hot corner).

After the 2003 season, Oakland signed him to a six-year, $66 million extension that kicked in starting in 2005 and will end after this year. There was little reason to argue against the idea. Chavez was a bona fide star who was going into his age 26 season and had very little injury history.

The next three seasons went OK, as Chavez averaged about 140 games per season and won three more Gold Gloves, although his offensive production slowed down in 2005 and 2006.

Simply put, the past three seasons have been increasingly brutal for Chavez, who has had to deal with a wave of serious injuries, including to his back.

2007: 90 games, 101 OPS+, .322 wOBA
2008: 23 games, 85 OPS+, .302 wOBA
2009: 8 games, 3-for-30, 1 extra-base hit

A guy who was worth 23.2 WAR from 2002-06 was worth 0.6 from 2007-09.

Chavez is just 32, but even someone without his injury history likely would be on the downslope of his career by now. It's possible Chavez could finally kick the injury bug and find a second wind, at least for a while, but that type of thing just doesn't happen often.

What's more likely is that we'll see a guy who once fielded the hot corner as smoothly as anyone and was one of the game's brightest young stars hobble around first base every so often and share some at-bats with the likes of Fox, Daric Barton and Adam Rosales.

It's another sad reminder of how quickly and completely injuries can rob someone of their career and us of the chance to enjoy watching them play.

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