Hitting The Cutoff Man

In Internet time, last year’s headlines might as well be living in a cave, dressed in animal skins and carrying a spear. Time moves quickly, and the recent past is buried under the crushing weight of fresh news.

Out of curiosity, I hopped into my time machine and set out on a dangerous voyage to find those ancient, long-forgotten headlines. My target time: the days surrounding Nov. 16, 2010. My target location: NBC Sports’ HardballTalk, my go-to site for quick takes on the latest news and rumors around Major League Baseball. What follows is the strange bounty of that exploration.

Headline: Royals not willing to “dump” former top prospect Alex Gordon

Result: Kansas City kept Gordon and made him their starting left fielder.

How’d that work out? The Royals, get this, made the right call (cue the marching band and release the balloons!). Gordon broke out, hitting .303/.376/.502 and was worth 5.9 WAR. File this under “sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make.”



Headline: Cardinals expected to aggressively pursue Juan Uribe

Result: Uribe signed a three-year, $21 million deal with the Dodgers instead, and the Cardinals traded for Ryan Theriot and signed Nick Punto to bolster their infield.

How’d that work out? Compared with Uribe, Theriot and Punto were Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker. Still, Theriot was pretty bad, and Punto was hurt a lot. At one point, St. Louis’ infield was so thin, Albert Pujols actually played third base, but the team eventually got Punto and David Freese back and traded for Rafael Furcal, and the rest was recent history.

Headline: Athletics interested in Lance Berkman as designated hitter

Result: Berkman signed with the Cardinals instead, and the A’s went with Hideki Matsui.

How’d that work out? Berkman defied critics both by being less than a complete disaster in the outfield and by hitting like the old Puma at the plate (.301/.412/.547) on his way to a ring. With Matsui leading the “charge,” Oakland designated “hitters” “hit” .245/.313/.390. Wrong lottery ticket, Billy!


Headline: Shin-Soo Choo is trying to slug his way out of the army

Result: Choo did in fact lead South Korea to a gold medal at the Asian Games, freeing him of his two-year commitment to his country’s armed forces.

How’d that work out? Choo lived happily ever after! Well, actually, this was basically the last good thing that happened to Choo all season. He played only 85 games between multiple DL stints, hit an extremely disappointing .259/.344/.390 and was nabbed for an embarrassing DUI.


Headline: Brad Penny is going to be in the best shape of his life.

Result: “Best shape of his life,” one of the more amusing off-season cliches every year, is sort of subjective, so you can judge for yourself. Here is Brad Penny on April 28, 2011. Sexy!

How’d that work out? Great shape or not, Penny posted probably the worst full season of his career, giving up 11.0 hits per nine innings with a 1.19 K/BB ratio and a 5.02 FIP for the Tigers. Maybe watching TV and eating Doritos is the way to go this offseason.


Headline: The Cardinals will try to lock up Pujols before Christmas

Result: St. Louis signed its franchise player to a relatively team-friendly contract in early December. What’s that? (Puts fingers in ears). Lalalala can’t hear you, lalalala can’t hear you!

How’d that work out? Great!


Headline: Adam Dunn wants at least three years and $40 million

Result: He got it! A couple of weeks later, Dunn signed a four-year, $56 million deal with the White Sox.

How’d that work out? Rather than throwing out a bunch of stats, I will simply lead you to this visual representation.


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2009: 59-103, 5th in NL East. Pythagorean record of 66-96.
Key Additions: 2B Adam Kennedy, C Ivan Rodriguez, SPs Jason Marquis and Chien-Ming Wang, RP Matt Capps, OF Willy Taveras
Key Losses: OF Elijah Dukes, C Josh Bard, RPs Mike MacDougal and Ron Villone
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 74-88, 5th in NL East. CHONE – 74-88, 5th. CAIRO – 73.1-88.9, 5th.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.82 FIP (25th in MLB), 4.79 for starters, 4.88 for relievers
2010 – The best news for this staff is that Next Big Thing Stephen Strasburg is coming at some point this season, probably sooner rather than later. Marquis and John Lannan are capable big league starters, but when they're you're top two pitchers, that's a problem. The Nats brought in Capps to try to hold down the closer job
Hitting: 2009 – .326 wOBA (17th in MLB)
2010 – A lineup core of Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham and Nyjer Morgan isn't too shabby, but the rest of the lineup is uninspiring at best. 24-year-old rookie Ian Desmond will be the team's starting shortstop, and while he has good potential, he doesn't figure to make a Strasburg-esque impact this year.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -26.7 (24th in MLB)
2010 – Morgan and Zimmerman are two of the best defensive players in the majors at any position. Dunn is absolutely brutal in left field and not that much better at first base -- how he's not already in the American League DHing, I have no idea.

Reasons to Watch
1. Stephen Strasburg: This is obvious. Coming out of San Diego State, Strasburg was one of the most highly touted college pitchers ever. The Nationals took him No. 1 overall in the 2009 draft and were able to sign him. Most people view Strasburg as major league-ready right now, and his work in the Arizona Fall League and Spring Training (when he gave up two runs and struck out 12 in nine innings), did nothing to hurt that notion. Nonetheless, he will start the season at Double-A Harrisburg. Strasburg likely will be up in the majors by June, however, and all eyes are going to be on him. There will be tremendous expectations, but it doesn't appear like he's the type of guy who will be bothered by that.
2. Ian Desmond: Washington's young shortstop impressed late last season, when he hit .280/.318/.561 in 89 plate appearances. That performance capped a great year for Desmond, who also put up career-best numbers at the plate in the minors before his call-up. He has a sterling defensive reputation as well, but it wouldn't be a shock to see Desmond struggle some at the plate in 2010. CHONE, for example, sees him posting a .324 wOBA. And if Desmond hits a rough spot, Christian Guzman is still around to steal at-bats. Nationals fans will be hoping Desmond gets off to a good start and gets the chance to adjust to the big leagues over a full season of at-bats.
3. Moving pieces: The Nats have finally started to turn the organization around in the past year or so, drafting promising guys like Strasburg and fellow 2009 first-rounder Drew Storen, while also bringing in some undervalued players like Morgan and Willingham via trade. But the Nats are still a long ways away from building a contending team and need all of the pieces they can get. The question is if GM Mike Rizzo will be willing and able to deal Willingham, Dunn and others this season in an effort to stockpile as many good young players as possible. Sure, the Nats might win fewer games in 2010, but they're going to need the extra wins in 2013 a lot more than they will now.

Paint By Numbers: Dunn is one consistent guy. Last season, Big Donkey hit 38 home runs, breaking a streak of four consecutive seasons in which he hit exactly 40. Still, Dunn has done the following six seasons in a row: come to the plate between 630 and 690 times, hit between 38 and 46 home runs, driven in between 92 and 106 runs, walked between 15.9 and 18.6% of the time, struck out between 30.9 and 34.3% of the time and posted an OBP between .365 and .398. Meanwhile, his total UZR the past two seasons combined is a mind-boggling -64.3. ... Lannan has pulled the trick of vastly out-performing his FIP two straight seasons. In both 2008 and 2009, Lannan managed an ERA in the high 3s, even as his FIP stood between 4.70 and 4.80. Last season, his K/BB ratio was second-worst among qualified pitchers, but he also had the 10th -highest ground ball to fly ball ratio.

Blog Jog: Capitol Punishment's Chris Needham reacts to the news of Desmond winning the starting SS job and looks at his minor league track record. ... Mark Zuckerman has Storen answer some questions posed by his readers. ... The Nats Blog's Sam Farber analyzes Christian Guzman joining Washington's right field platoon, while William Yoder brings the latest installment of the Bryce Harper Watch.

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Since the calendar is about to flip to 2010, we’ve reached the time of year when we solemnly vow to improve in various ways in the coming 365 days. Let’s take a look at the New Year’s resolutions of your favorite Major League baseball teams, starting with the National League.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Persuade everyone on the roster to join teammate and award-winning mustache-grower Clay Zavada in developing a little upper-lip fuzz. To be good, you have to look good, and everyone can agree nothing looks more stylish that a ‘stache.

Atlanta Braves – Stock the bullpen with plenty of blankets. You don’t want free agent acquisitions Billy Wagner (38 years old) and Takashi Saito (39) to catch cold in the early-season chill.

Chicago Cubs – Convince first baseman Derrek Lee, who normally conducts himself with a quiet professionalism, to start acting standoffish toward teammates and like a jerk to the media. That way, when the team underperforms again, fans and lazy reporters will have a convenient scapegoat to replace the departed Milton Bradley.

Cincinnati Reds – For the love of Fire Joe Morgan, stop batting Willy Taveras leadoff. Taveras played 82 games in the No. 1 spot this past season and posted a robust .275 on-base percentage in those contests. In a related note, learn that the most important thing you can do in baseball is not make outs.

Colorado Rockies – Start the season off hot this time, then suddenly collapse late, just to throw people off.

Florida Marlins – Make it to the World Series again so people will actually show up for the games.

Houston Astros – Keep signing mediocre 30-ish relievers to relatively lavish multi-year contracts. Great strategy.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Tell Frank and Jamie McCourt that if they don’t find a way to settle their divorce and ownership dispute quickly and in a way that is best for the team, Tommy Lasorda will sit on them until they do.

Milwaukee Brewers – Now that Brett Favre is persona non grata in Wisconsin, spice up the traditional Miller Park sausage races with an extra participant: someone dressed as Favre in a Vikings Jersey and Wranglers. This Favre imposter should obviously get out to the lead before being intercepted and stopped before the finish line.

New York Mets – Ensconce every player in bubble wrap to try to ward off the injuries that decimated the team in 2009.

Philadelphia Phillies – Make Green Man the team’s new co-mascot. Check out the hilarity that would ensue (skip ahead to about the 0:50 mark).



Supplementary resolution for you, the reader: If you are not already doing so, start watching “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia.”

Pittsburgh Pirates – Stop delaying the inevitable and trade rising star Andrew McCutchen now, before fans grow attached to him. It’s the humane thing to do.

San Diego Padres – Instead of starting diminutive David Eckstein at shortstop, have him hide in the back pocket of 6-foot-6, 285-pound outfielder Kyle Blanks, only to leap out at crucial times and chase down fly balls in San Diego’s spacious outfield.

San Francisco Giants – Now that super utilityman Mark DeRosa has signed with the team, provide local media with info sheet highlighting how DeRosa is “gritty” and plays the game The Right Way in order to help facilitate fawning articles.

St. Louis Cardinals – Continue furious work on super-secret Albert Pujols cloning project.

Washington Nationals – Petition Commissioner Selig to allow Adam Dunn to use a jetpack in left field. This would increase Big Donkey’s range while also giving people a reason to watch the team play.

Tomorrow: the American League!

Hello, and welcome to Hitting the Cutoff Man!

As anyone who has played or watched much baseball knows, hitting the cutoff man is one of the many fundamentals a player is expected to master. An outfielder can have a cannon for an arm, but if he wildly launches his throw over the head of the infielder who has come out to receive it, the play has little chance of resulting in an out. In fact, it often leads to a runner getting an extra base.

Announcers never seem to tire of telling you that baseball is about these “little things” and is a “game of inches.” They say it’s about running out ground balls, taking the extra base, getting your uniform dirty, making productive outs and giving up your body to dive for balls just out of reach.

And, of course, all of those aspects of baseball matter, to varying degrees.

At the same time, as advanced statistical analysis has improved and become more mainstream in recent years, as a general fanbase we have become more knowledgeable about the relative importance of various parts of the game. Some might disagree, but for me, taking some of the mystery out of the game hasn’t dampened my love for it. Just the opposite is true.

When we’re watching a game on TV, we no longer have to take the announcer’s word for it when he says a guy is “one of the best hitters in the league.” We can go online and find his offensive contributions quantified to fractions of a run.

And while these advances might burst the bubble of some who pick their favorite players on the basis of vague qualities like scrappiness and grittiness, in general, our newfound knowledge makes it possible to appreciate players for many different reasons. Even though he has the quickness of a sedated sloth and whiffs enough to generate wind power for a small city, Adam Dunn has value because he often hits baseballs a very long ways. On the other end of the spectrum, Adam Everett hits worse than some pitchers, but he has value because he plays a fantastic shortstop.

Statistics may not be perfect, but they tell us far more about a player’s ability to hit, pitch, run, field and throw than our eyes do. Yet what is great about baseball is that in the tiny sample of any given play, it’s still the “little things” that can make a huge difference.

Say there’s a runner on first and two outs in a tie game. The batter smacks a shot into the gap. The outfielder gets over and fields it. The third base coach is windmilling his arm, sending the runner home, and the outfielder cocks his arm, ready to fire.

In that instant, one tiny thing takes precedence over all else: Hitting the cutoff man.