Hitting The Cutoff Man

The baseball season is a month old now, and it's been a crazy season already to say the least.

We've got Paul Konerko leading the majors in home runs by a margin of three, and Kelly Johnson tied for the NL lead. Tigers rookie Austin Jackson is second in the AL with a .376 batting average (aided by a mind-boggling .524 BABIP), while Cardinals rookie David Freese is atop the NL with a .360 mark. Andre Ethier is close to a triple crown, sitting first in the NL in RBI, tied for first in home runs and just behind Freese in average. Meanwhile, someone named Doug Fister is leading the AL in ERA while the ancient Livan Hernandez and rookie Jaime Garcia are second and third in the NL. We've already seen a no-hitter and a three-homer game (from John Buck).

Of course, it's still very early and by the end of the season, most of these facts will be nothing more than distant memories -- if they're remembered at all.

On the occasion of Cinco De Mayo, here are five stories I'll be watching intently as the month progresses.

1. Rookie Revolution -- As mentioned, guys like Jackson, Freese and Garcia are tearing up the league, along with phenom Jason Heyward. Jackson in particular seems likely to come crashing down to Earth, thanks to his ridiculously unsustainable BABIP and hacktastic approach, and the two Cardinals are almost certainly playing over their heads as well -- not to say they aren't good players. Heyward looks as good as the hype though, having shown patience, the willingness to hit the ball the other way, the ability to make adjustments to the adjustments pitchers make to him and a coolness and maturity under pressure. And don't forget, we haven't even seen perhaps the best rookie of all yet. That would be Stephen Strasburg, who was just promoted to Triple-A by the Nats and figures to be in the big leagues by sometime in June. It's always exciting to see young players break through, so this season is a real treat.

2. The Fabulous Rays -- I think it's safe to say that everyone outside of New York, Boston and Bristol, Conn., would like to see the low-budget Rays win the AL East this season. So far, so good. Tampa has the best record in baseball at 19-7, leading the AL in both runs scored and ERA. This team is young, very talented and extremely fun to watch, playing a much more visually appealing brand of baseball than their division counterparts. And for what it's worth, they know they can do it, having made the World Series two years ago.

3. The AL Wild West -- This certainly isn't baseball's best division, but it might be it's most fascinating, and it certainly could turn into the closest pennant race. With one month in the books, all four teams are within 2 1/2 games, although Texas at 14-13 is the only one over .500. In fact, if anyone runs away with the division, it will be the Rangers, who have gotten a nice pitching boost from Japan returnee Colby Lewis and converted reliever C.J. Wilson. Meanwhile, the depleted Angels have the second-worst run differential in the AL, and the Mariners -- a hot pre-season pick -- simply cannot hit the ball enough to win games so far. Only the Astros have scored fewer runs this season, and the whole team is hitting .235/.309/.327. That's worse than Adam Everett's career numbers.

4. Zack's Lack (Of Support) -- The good news about Zack Greinke's 2010 season is that it's another step toward convincing people to do away with the win as a good measurement of a pitcher's value. That's probably not much consolation to Greinke, however. The 2009 AL Cy Young winner has started six games this season, pitched 39 2/3 innings with a 33 to 7 K/BB ratio, a 2.27 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. In other words, he's been excellent, if not quite up to last season's outrageous start. Despite holding the opposition to two earned runs or less in five of his six starts, he is 0-3 with three no-decisions, two of which ended up as Royals defeats. Before Greinke's last start, when he held the hot-hitting Rays to one run in eight innings in a game the Royals lost 3-0, Joe Posnanski wrote about "The Agony of Being Greinke." The big stat: Since Aug. 16, 2008, Greinke had a 2.11 ERA in 46 starts, and the Royals went 22-24 in those games.

5. Zombies in the Outfield -- Before the season started, it was widely assumed that Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano were pretty much finished as impact players and hence had probably the two worst contracts in baseball. And frankly, nobody was really saying anything at all about Andruw Jones, who hadn't been good in about four years. Well, all three former star outfielders appear to be back from the dead. Jones, Soriano and Wells are 6th, 10th and 15th in MLB in wOBA among players with at least 80 plate appearances so far, and they've combined for 23 home runs. To put the redemption another way: Last season the three combined to be worth one win above replacement. In one month in 2010, they're already at 3.7.

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2009: 83-78, 2nd in NL Central. Pythagorean record of 84-77.
Key Additions: CF Marlon Byrd, RF Xavier Nady, SP Carlos Silva
Key Losses: RF Milton Bradley, 1F/OF Jake Fox, SP Rich Harden, RP Kevin Gregg
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 80-82, 2nd in NL Central. CHONE – 79-83, 4th. CAIRO – 83.8-78.2, 3rd

Pitching: 2009 – 4.11 FIP (7th in MLB), 3.95 for starters, 4.45 for relievers
2010 – The starting pitching should be solid again, but the bullpen bears watching. Closer Carlos Marmol is electric but erratic and with Angel Guzman out for the year, the right side of the pen is very inexperienced. That's not necessarily bad but makes the unit's fortunes less predictable.
Hitting: 2009 – .323 wOBA (21st in MLB)
2010 – The offense is due for a rebound, as guys like Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto should bounce back somewhat from abysmal years. A healthy season from Aramis Ramirez would be a big help as well.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -19.8 (21st in MLB)
2010 – Byrd isn't a great center fielder, but he'll help just by pushing Kosuke Fukudome back to his much more natural right field. Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot (when he plays) make for a good combo in the middle infield.

Reasons to Watch
1. Carlos Marmol: You never know what's going to happen when Marmol enters the game. He could walk three straight hitters or strike out three straight, or even do one after the other. With Gregg gone and Guzman out, the Cubs are counting on Marmol to find the strike zone often enough to hold down leads, but you can bet it won't be a smooth ride.
2. Alfonso Soriano: To say 2009 was a rough season for Soriano but be understating things considerably. Limited to 117 games by a knee injury that also left him playing hurt a lot of the time, Sori was dreadful at the plate and in the field, culminating in a negative WAR total for the year. He's almost sure to improve considerably this time around, but will he improve enough to make his remaining contract look anything other than horrendous?
3. Carlos Silva: The Cubs had to take Silva off the Mariners' hands in order to get rid of Milton Bradley this offseason. But coming off an 8.60 ERA in eight games last season and a 6.46 mark in 28 games the year before, Silva appears to be a contender for the fifth spot in the rotation. If Silva can manage to turn his career around, it would make the Bradley dump a little more palatable.

Paint By Numbers: Of all pitchers who threw at least 50 innings last season, Marmol had the sixth-highest K/9 ratio at 11.31 but also the second-highest BB/9 ratio at 7.91. Marmol's .171 batting average against trailed only Jonathan Broxton. ... In his 2008 rookie season, Geovany Soto put up a .332 BABIP (comapred with the league average of about .300), but last season that number fell to .246, helping to explain Soto's steep decline. If Geo bounces back in 2009, many will say it's because he got in shape, but a closer to average BABIP likely will play a role as well. ... Ryan Theriot hit seven home runs in his first three big league seasons. He then hit seven in 2009, with all of them coming between May 1 and June 29. Perhaps in looking for more power, Theriot gave up some plate discipline, as his K/BB ratio dropped from a superb 1.26 in 2008 to a below-average 0.55 last season.

Blog Jog:Dave Szymborski of ESPN.com's Max Info blog projects Alfonso Soriano's 2010 performance, factoring in the impact of new hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo. ... Another Cubs Blog's mb21 takes Szymborski's work a step further by applying the "Jaramillo Effect" to the rest of the Cubs' projected regular hitters. ... ACB also takes a look at how the Cubs' bullpen is shaping up at this point in Spring Training and how that will affect the makeup of the 40-man roster. ... Brad from Cubs Stats considers the prospect of a "retooled" Carlos Silva.

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We’re now just five days away from pitchers and catcher reporting to Spring Training, and in honor of that, I’ve compiled a list of five intriguing players whom I will be following with great interest this season.

Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds -- Bruce is an immensely talented, 22-year-old left-handed batter. His first two big league seasons, comprising 839 plate appearances, have been rather bizarre, however. While missing some time due to injury, Bruce has put up a line of .240/.309/.460, while pounding 43 homers. As detailed in this piece on FanGraphs, Bruce has put up a stunningly low .262 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), compared with the league average of around .300. While it is possible for a few individual hitters to consistently put up BABIPs that vary wildly from the norm, it’s certainly reasonable to think Bruce has been unlucky thus far and is due for a major upswing in 2010. Both the Bill James and CHONE projection systems have Bruce’s BABIP returning to the normal range, with his OPS rising into the high 800s and his wOBA into the .370s, making him a well above average hitter. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out.

Brad Lidge, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies -- Relief pitchers are notoriously fickle, as the small number of innings they pitch can lead to wild fluctuations in performance due to sample size issues. But Lidge has taken the Jekyll and Hyde act to a different level, particularly the past two years. He was dominant in ’04-’05, putting up FIPs of 1.97 and 2.13. In ’06-’07, he was decent but not great, with FIPs of 3.79 and 3.88 and 14 blown saves. He was then spectacular during Philly’s 2008 championship run (2.41 FIP, 0 blown saves) and a complete disaster last season (5.45 FIP, 11 blown saves). Chances are, he will come back better than last season but not as good as two seasons ago, perhaps doing something comparable to his ’06-’07 campaigns (CHONE predicts a 4.10 FIP). But you never know – we could get another appearance from Unhittable Lidge or Meltdown Lidge.

Joel Piniero, RHP, Los Angeles Angels -- It’s not often that a pitcher, at age 30, completely reinvents himself. But that’s exactly what Piniero did last season with St. Louis, leading the majors in ground balls per balls in play thanks to a new two-seam fastball. He also managed to walk just 1.14 batters per nine innings. It’s unlikely he can duplicate that feat, which would make his bottom of the barrel strikeout numbers less palatable. Nonetheless, it will be fun to see if Piniero’s transformation is mostly permanent and he becomes a stellar back-of-the-rotation starter for the Angels, or if he regresses severely now that he’s back in his old division.

Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago Cubs -- It’s hard to overstate how terrible Soriano’s 2009 was, as he hit .241/.303/.423. Combined with a -10.8 UZR in left field, that line pushed Soriano’s wins above replacement (WAR) into negative territory. His -0.7 mark was fifth-worst among qualified players in 2009. Of course, it must be noted that Soriano played much of the season with a balky knee that eventually required surgery. If he’s healthy in 2010, a bounceback is a near certainty (CHONE projects 1.8 WAR). On the other hand, Sori is 34, so you have to wonder how much is left in the tank for a guy who has five years and $90 million left on his contract. This season could give us a significant clue.

Ben Zobrist, IF/OF, Tampa Bay Rays-- Take a look at FanGraphs' 2009 WAR leaders for position players. You might be surprised to find out that the No. 1 guy on the list wasn't Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer or some other highly recognizable star. Nope, it was Zobrist, a little-known 28-year-old playing his first full big league season. How did he do it? Walks (91 of them, leading to a .405 OBP), home runs (27 of them, contributing to a .543 SLG), some luck (a .330 BABIP) and great defense (a 16.0 UZR in 91 games at 2B and an 11.5 mark in 59 games in RF, most notably). The question regarding the versatile Zobrist isn't so much if he can duplicate his 2009 season -- he almost certainly can't -- but rather if he can get somewhere close. The CHONE projection system suggests it's not likely. It has Zobrist's OBP falling to .368, his SLG falling to .463 and projects him to be good for 3.8 WAR. That's still quite good, but it wouldn't get Zobrist back atop any leaderboards. Then again, you never know. He could always surprise us again.

Tomorrow: 4 Series To Mark On Your Calendar

First off, sorry for the long delay between posts. I’ve taken a new job that involved moving across the country, and things got a little hectic on me.

But now I’m operational again, and it’s coming at the perfect time, as pitchers and catchers start reporting to Spring Training Feb. 17 (although some teams wait until the 21st). To mark the occasion, I’ll be posting a different list looking ahead at the new season every day between now and when the first camps open.

Since there are six days left until Feb. 17, today's list is "6 Most Interesting Off-Season Moves." These aren't necessarily the biggest or most important moves, just the ones that caught my attention the most.

Phillies acquire Roy Halladay from Blue Jays and deal Cliff Lee to the Mariners
This was the biggest deal of the offseason and also the most interesting because of the Phillies' decision to swap aces. Philly could have gotten Halladay and still kept Lee, but apparently felt that would have left their farm system in bad shape. Still, the prospects they gave up for Halladay are more highly regarded than those they picked up for Lee, and you have to wonder whether the difference between the two pitchers is big enough to make it all worthwhile. The Phillies still look like serious World Series contenders this season, but this pair of trades was a little puzzling.

Red Sox sign Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre
Neither Cameron nor Beltre has a particularly bigtime reputation, and they're both low batting average hitters. But both players are productive at the plate and superb with the glove -- Cameron in center field and Beltre at third base. These signings indicate Boston's newfound dedication to run prevention, something the organization shares with other cutting-edge teams like the Mariners and A's. Beltre and Cameron figure to be difference-makers in what could be a very tight AL East race.

Cardinals name Mark McGwire hitting coach; Cubs name Rudy Jaramillo hitting coach
Putting aside the hubub of McGwire's PED admission, his hiring and that of Jaramillo are interesting as they relate to the issue of a batting coach's real impact on a team. The importance of these coaches at the big league level tends to be overstated in my opinion, making them easy scapegoats during tough times. But it will be fascinating to see how these two guys do. The Cubs' offense is poised for a rebound regardless of coaching, as it's hard to believe players like Geovany Soto and Alfonso Soriano will be as bad as they were last season, but Jaramillo has a sterling reputation and could provide an extra boost. McGwire has gotten glowing reviews from players who have worked with him privately and might make a difference for Cardinals hitters not named Albert Pujols.

Royals sign Jason Kendall to a two-year contract
The Royals have made a litany of baffling moves recently, but this signing stands out. How does a team that figures to be nowhere near a playoff race justify not only signing the aging Kendall, but to a two-year deal? Of course, the easy answer is some mythical combination of "veteran leadership" and "grit," but the fact is that Kendall hasn't managed an OBP above .331 or a slugging percentage above .324 the past three seasons. In other words, he's an offensive liability, even for a catcher. The Royals could have signed someone younger and cheaper to do just as poorly, but if they did that, they wouldn't be the Royals.

A's sign Ben Sheets
Sheets missed all of last season after having elbow surgery and has started 25 or more games only once since 2004. But the small-market A's, looking to compete in what figures to be a rough-and-tumble AL West, outbid the competition for his services, inking Sheets to a one-year deal worth $10 million plus incentives. Will Sheets help keep Oakland in the playoff race, or at least stay healthy long enough to get flipped for prospects at the trade deadline? That remains to be seen.

Cubs trade Milton Bradley to Mariners for Carlos Silva
This was one of those classic "our problem for your problem" deals. Bradley had worn out his welcome in Chicago, to put it mildly, having been suspended from the team late in the season. Silva was making a lot of money and pitching terribly in Seattle. Basically this trade boiled down to the Cubs taking on the final two years of Silva's horrid deal in exchange for getting rid of Bradley plus acquiring some cash, which went toward signing Marlon Byrd. But while Bradley's situation in Chicago probably was untenable, he figures to produce a lot more than Silva this season and could be a real asset to the M's.

Tomorrow: 5 Intriguing Players to Watch in '10