Hitting The Cutoff Man

The Dodgers beat the Padres on Monday in a battle of woeful NL West clubs, and like many LA victories these days, the driving force largely consisted of two players. Clayton Kershaw gave up two runs in a complete game, and Matt Kemp doubled, tripled and drove in a run.

You could sum up the Dodgers’ season by saying that nearly everything has gone wrong, except for Kershaw and Kemp. The former is one of the top few pitchers in the National League; the latter is one of the NL’s best position players. The rest of the team has resembled a black hole.

That brought me to this question: Are the Dodgers baseball’s most top-heavy team? There’s no precise way to answer that since “top-heavy” has no precise definition when it comes to baseball teams.

But I took an entirely unscientific shot anyway. For each team, I added the best two players’ FanGraphs wins above replacement (fWAR) -- through Wednesday's games -- and divided that number by the entire team’s. What I found was that my hunch was almost correct, but just like pitchers around baseball, it was foiled by a certain slugger residing north of the border.

Baseball’s five most top-heavy teams

1. Toronto Blue Jays
Jose Bautista (6.9) + Yunel Escobar (4.2) / 26.4 total = 42.05 %
Comment: Bautista holds a sliver of an edge over Dustin Pedroia as baseball’s most valuable player by fWAR. The guy simply is the best hitter on the planet right now, and it’s not close. Escobar, traded from Atlanta to Toronto last season, is vastly outperforming his Braves replacement, Alex Gonzalez.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Matt Kemp (5.3) + Clayton Kershaw (4.7) / 24.3 total = 41.15 %
Comment: The Dodgers only have five other players with even 1 WAR. Meanwhile, Kershaw ranks sixth among MLB pitchers and Kemp seventh among MLB position players. It’s lonely being good at Chavez Ravine this year.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew McCutchen (5.2) + Neil Walker (2.0) / 17.7 total = 40.68 %
Comment: When you look at this, it is both difficult to see how the Pirates hung around near the top of the NL Central standings so long and easy to see why they have been backsliding of late. The Bucs have been a great story but also one with a single strong main character in McCutchen and not much else that promises sustainability.

4. Seattle Mariners
Felix Hernandez (3.7) + Doug Fister (3.0) / 17.0 total = 39.41 %
Comment: Here is a true fact – The Mariners’ top three position players by fWAR are Brendan Ryan, June callup Dustin Ackley and Adam Kennedy. Yeesh. Fister has now been traded to the Tigers, leaving fellow pitcher Michael Pineda (2.7 fWAR) as the team’s second-best performer.

5. Houston Astros
Michael Bourn (3.4) + Hunter Pence (2.5) / 15 total = 39.33 %
Comment: Yep, the Astros’ two best players this year are no longer Astros. The next two guys in line are Clint Barmes and the shell of Carlos Lee. In other words, feel the excitement of Astros baseball!

And in case you were wondering, for some reason, your least top-heavy (most bottom-heavy?) is …

30. Atlanta Braves
Brian McCann (3.6) + Tim Hudson (2.7) / 29.4 total = 21.43 %
Comment: Despite being solidly in playoff position, the Braves have not had too many real standout performers this year. Of course, Bourn is now in the fold, joining a cast of solid players (plus Scott Proctor).

Conclusion: First of all, it's obviously the case that the results would be somewhat different if we measured by each team's top player only or top three players or top four players.

It does make sense that most bad teams rank higher in this rating than most good teams. After all, even bad teams tend to have one or two good players, and their WAR will be a higher percentage of the team's than someone on a good team. But there are exceptions. Four of the bottom five teams are the playoff-contending Braves, Rangers, Yankees and Cardinals, but the Marlins and A's are mixed in with them. The Phillies and Red Sox, baseball's two best teams, rank in the middle of the pack.

So what do we learn? Well, not much. But hey, at least the Dodgers lead the National League in something other than lawsuits.

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2009: 62-99, 6th in NL Central. Pythagorean record of 67-94.
Key Additions: 2B Akinori Iwamura, SS Bobby Crosby, OF Ryan Church, RPs Octavio Dotel, Brendan Donnelly and Javier Lopez
Key Losses: RPs Jesse Chavez and Matt Capps
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 70-92, 6th in NL Central. CHONE – 74-88, 5th. CAIRO – 73.6-88.4, 5th.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.48 FIP (22nd in MLB), 4.42 for starters, 4.61 for relievers
2010 – Paul Maholm is a solid big league pitcher but frankly wouldn't be a No. 1 starter on most teams. Things get increasingly thin after him. Pittsburgh is hoping veterans like Dotel and Donnelly can help stabilize a bullpen that struggled mightily last season.
Hitting: 2009 – .310 wOBA (28th in MLB)
2010 – It looks like the Pirates have something special in center fielder Andrew McCutchen, but there's really nobody in this lineup who is anything close to a lock for a productive 2010. Guys like Andy LaRoche and Lastings Milledge are going to start running out of chances to show they can hit at the big league level.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of 30.1(7th in MLB)
2010 – The Pirates lost a bunch of solid fielders during their in-season purge last year, namely Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez and Nyjer Morgan. McCutchen has the athletic ability to be a great center fielder, but it's fairly difficult to project how this group will fare in 2010.

Reasons to Watch
1. Bobby Crosby: It seems like an awfully long time ago that Crosby was the AL Rookie of the Year with Oakland and a future star in the making. That was back in 2004. Since then, injuries have kept Crosby to less than 100 games in all but one season, and when he has been in the lineup, he hasn't hit. He's never been much of a contact hitter, and his power seemingly has evaporated. Crosby is now 30 and no longer possesses the high ceiling he once did, but it will be interesting to see what he can do if healthy, including possibly taking the starting shortstop job from Ronny Cedeno.
2. Jeff Clement: Clement also had big-time potential but never even reached Crosby's heights in the Majors. He was Seattle's No. 1 prospect according to Baseball America in 2006, but in 2008, he hit .227/.295/.360 in 224 plate appearances. The Pirates picked him up as part of the Jack Wilson trade and have converted him to first base, where he apparently is the front-runner for the Opening Day job. Clement won't turn 27 until August, and CHONE projects him to hit .264/.342/.460. That would look a lot better behind the plate than at first, but the Pirates need all the solid bats they can accumulate, no matter the position.
3. Garrett Jones: Going into last season, Jones was 28, and his big league experience was limited to 84 ineffective plate appearances for the Twins in 2007. So it's fair to say nobody predicted that Jones would get called up at the beginning of July and proceed to knock the cover off the ball for the rest of the season. The damage: .293/.372/.567 line and 21 home runs in 358 plate appearances. Now the question is if he can keep it up. CHONE projects a tumble, from last season's .396 wOBA to a .346 mark. It will be up to Jones to surprise us again.

Paint By Numbers: Of the 10 players with the most plate appearances for the Bucs in 2009, four were traded during the season. ... Jones' 21 long balls last season is a single-season high among the Pirates' projected starters this year. Of players likely to be a part of the team's active roster to begin the season, only Crosby (22 HR in '04) can top that number. ... Paul Maholm induced 28 double-play grounders last season, tied for second in MLB, thanks to his sinker, which helped him produce a ground ball rate of 52.1 percent. ... Octavio Dotel, now on his eighth team since coming up in 1999, apparently will be Pittsburgh's closer. Dotel is just 19-for-34 in save opportunities since going 36-for-45 in 2004.

Blog Jog: Charlie at Bucs Dugout explains why the team's performance on the field this season should not be relevant to the futures of manager John Russell or (especially) GM Neal Huntington. ... Smitty of Rum Bunter offers 10 reasons why Andrew McCutchen is the face of the franchise. ... Pat Lackey of Where Have You Gone Andy Van Slyke takes a look at the pros and cons of the Pirates' new batting order.

Follow Hitting The Cutoff Man on Twitter at HitTheCutoff

It’s a great time to be a baseball fan, possibly excluding those poor souls in Kansas City, Pittsburgh and a few other places. But as you will see, even those fans have reason for some excitement.

While the scourge of performance-enhancing drugs certainly has not passed on entirely, the game has been blessed with a fresh generation of stars that plays the game clean (so far as we know) and incredibly well.

In an effort to illustrate the stunning collection of young talent already at the Major League level, I will compose an entire 25-man roster of players who have at least 100 plate appearances or 50 innings pitched in the big leagues but were 25 or younger at the start of 2010. Since a player’s prime usually begins around 26, this gives us a look at guys who are likely to be on the upswing.

Today we’ll do the position players, and tomorrow we’ll move on to the pitchers. Feel free to let me know if I missed someone in the comments.

C – Brian McCann, ATL, 25 years old. It’s hard to believe McCann is still 25 (he turns 26 next month), but he made his Major League debut at 21 and was an All-Star at 22. McCann is no Joe Mauer, who is a little too old for this list, but he has an .853 career OPS and the most home runs of any MLB catcher since 2005.

C – Matt Wieters, BAL, 23. Wieters came up last season with tremendous hype, and while his performance wasn’t awe-inspiring, it was solid and encouraging for a 23-year-old catcher getting his first taste of the Majors. Even with his inexperience and position, he was about a league-average hitter.

1B – Prince Fielder, MIL, 25. Fielder isn’t the type of player (big and slow) who is likely to age well, but he sure is fun to watch right now. In a little more than four full seasons, the big man has 160 home runs, and last season he was third in the big leagues with a 1.014 OPS.

1B – Pablo Sandoval, SF, 23. Kung Fu Panda has played mostly third base thus far but is expected to move across the diamond this season after the Giants signed Mark DeRosa. And make no mistake – the guy can flat-out rake. In 717 career at-bats, he’s put up a line of .333/.381/.543 while playing half his games in a terrible hitters’ park.

2B – Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE, 24. This is cheating slightly, as Cabrera played mostly shortstop last season, but second base is the weakest position in this age group and Cabrera played there a lot in 2008. He had a breakout year with the bat in ’09, and while he was a bit lucky, the Bill James projection still has Cabrera OPSing a respectable .779 next season.

3B – Evan Longoria, TB, 24. According to Fangraphs, Longoria was the seventh most valuable player in baseball last season despite being in his second year. How? He’s a solid hitter with good patience and excellent power, and he plays a beautiful third base. Over the past two seasons, Longoria’s Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of 33.4 is the second-best mark of any player at any position, behind Carl Crawford.

3B – Ryan Zimmerman, WAS, 25. Not a lot of people know about Zimmerman, who has the misfortune of playing for the woeful Nats, and that’s a shame. He isn’t quite Longoria, but he’s awfully close. Last season, he was second to Longoria in UZR at third while putting up a career-best .888 OPS.

SS – Troy Tulowitzki, COL, 25. Hanley Ramirez is slightly too old for this exercise, so Tulo gets the nod here. After a rough, injury-marred 2008, he bounced back in a big way last season. Although he didn’t play up to his capabilities defensively, he had a career year with the bat, producing of a line of .297/.377/.552, with 32 home runs.

SS – Elvis Andrus, TEX, 21. Erick Aybar would also be a solid choice, but Andrus is four years younger and already better defensively. He was third among MLB shortstops in UZR as a rookie last season, and while the bat wasn’t anything special, he has plenty of time to improve in that area.

OF – Matt Kemp, LAD, 25. The Bison made his big league debut in 2006 as an extremely raw package of skills and has developed in leaps and bounds since. He hits for average (.299 career mark), has learned to take an occasional walk, has prodigious power that still hasn’t fully materialized, and is shockingly fast for someone who weighs in around 230 pounds (69 steals the last two years). He’s still not a great center fielder because he takes some bad routes to fly balls, but there are few players in the whole league with a higher ceiling.

OF – Justin Upton, ARZ, 22. Upton was first called up to the Majors as a teenager in 2007 and quickly has become one of the best all-around players in the game. He hit .300 and slugged .532 last season, stole 20 bases and was fourth among MLB right fielders in UZR. It wouldn’t be much of a stretch to imagine him as this generation’s Ken Griffey, Jr.

OF – B.J. Upton, TB, 25. Justin’s older brother had an excellent year with the bat in 2007 and a solid one in 2008 but tailed off badly last year, putting up a .686 OPS. He is likely to rebound, however, and if he does he will be extremely valuable, as he already is one of the top few defensive center fielders in baseball.

OF – Andrew McCutchen, PIT, 23. The Pirates don’t have much, but at least they have their center fielder and leadoff man of the future (until they inevitably trade him, at least). McCutchen stormed onto the scene as a rookie with an .836 OPS, 12 home runs, 22 steals and average defense in center after getting called up in early June.

OF – Colby Rasmus, STL, 23. Adam Jones and Denard Span also were great options here, but Rasmus wins via music video tiebreaker. Rasmus is already a top-five defensive center fielder, so it’s just a matter of his bat developing after an unspectacular rookie season. More patience and a better performance against lefties would help, but Rasmus did show his power potential with 16 homers in 474 at-bats.

Here’s a potential starting lineup out of that group.
1. J. Upton, RF
2. M. Kemp, LF
3. E. Longoria, 3B
4. P. Fielder, 1B
5. P. Sandoval, DH
6. T. Tulowitzki, SS
7. B. McCann, C
8. B. Upton, CF
9. A. Cabrera, 2B

Since the calendar is about to flip to 2010, we’ve reached the time of year when we solemnly vow to improve in various ways in the coming 365 days. Let’s take a look at the New Year’s resolutions of your favorite Major League baseball teams, starting with the National League.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Persuade everyone on the roster to join teammate and award-winning mustache-grower Clay Zavada in developing a little upper-lip fuzz. To be good, you have to look good, and everyone can agree nothing looks more stylish that a ‘stache.

Atlanta Braves – Stock the bullpen with plenty of blankets. You don’t want free agent acquisitions Billy Wagner (38 years old) and Takashi Saito (39) to catch cold in the early-season chill.

Chicago Cubs – Convince first baseman Derrek Lee, who normally conducts himself with a quiet professionalism, to start acting standoffish toward teammates and like a jerk to the media. That way, when the team underperforms again, fans and lazy reporters will have a convenient scapegoat to replace the departed Milton Bradley.

Cincinnati Reds – For the love of Fire Joe Morgan, stop batting Willy Taveras leadoff. Taveras played 82 games in the No. 1 spot this past season and posted a robust .275 on-base percentage in those contests. In a related note, learn that the most important thing you can do in baseball is not make outs.

Colorado Rockies – Start the season off hot this time, then suddenly collapse late, just to throw people off.

Florida Marlins – Make it to the World Series again so people will actually show up for the games.

Houston Astros – Keep signing mediocre 30-ish relievers to relatively lavish multi-year contracts. Great strategy.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Tell Frank and Jamie McCourt that if they don’t find a way to settle their divorce and ownership dispute quickly and in a way that is best for the team, Tommy Lasorda will sit on them until they do.

Milwaukee Brewers – Now that Brett Favre is persona non grata in Wisconsin, spice up the traditional Miller Park sausage races with an extra participant: someone dressed as Favre in a Vikings Jersey and Wranglers. This Favre imposter should obviously get out to the lead before being intercepted and stopped before the finish line.

New York Mets – Ensconce every player in bubble wrap to try to ward off the injuries that decimated the team in 2009.

Philadelphia Phillies – Make Green Man the team’s new co-mascot. Check out the hilarity that would ensue (skip ahead to about the 0:50 mark).



Supplementary resolution for you, the reader: If you are not already doing so, start watching “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia.”

Pittsburgh Pirates – Stop delaying the inevitable and trade rising star Andrew McCutchen now, before fans grow attached to him. It’s the humane thing to do.

San Diego Padres – Instead of starting diminutive David Eckstein at shortstop, have him hide in the back pocket of 6-foot-6, 285-pound outfielder Kyle Blanks, only to leap out at crucial times and chase down fly balls in San Diego’s spacious outfield.

San Francisco Giants – Now that super utilityman Mark DeRosa has signed with the team, provide local media with info sheet highlighting how DeRosa is “gritty” and plays the game The Right Way in order to help facilitate fawning articles.

St. Louis Cardinals – Continue furious work on super-secret Albert Pujols cloning project.

Washington Nationals – Petition Commissioner Selig to allow Adam Dunn to use a jetpack in left field. This would increase Big Donkey’s range while also giving people a reason to watch the team play.

Tomorrow: the American League!