Hitting The Cutoff Man

Somewhere out in the great beyond, there exists an alternate universe with an alternate Major League Baseball. Here are some recent headlines from this league's Hot Stove season.

Yanks’ Sabathia Opts Out of Contract, Eyes Homecoming With A's
By Buster Olney, ESPN.com

The New York Yankees drafted, developed and groomed CC Sabathia, but it appears the chronically cash-strapped organization is going to lose yet another homegrown talent to a team with considerably more payroll power.

Sabathia's agent Brian Peters said Monday that the left-handed former Cy Young winner will opt out of his current deal with the Yankees, with four years remaining, and become a free agent. Speculation among several high-ranking baseball front office personnel indicates that Sabathia wants to sign with his hometown team, the Oakland Athletics, who are looking to significantly increase their payroll thanks to their brand new stadium that will open next season.

Oakland general manager Billy Beane declined comment, but one American League GM said he would set the chances of a Sabathia-to-Oakland deal at “above 80 percent.”

Sabathia signed an extension with the Yankees when he first reached free agency after the 2008 season, but demanded the opt-out clause in case he felt the organization did not come through on its promises to field a competitive team. ...

Three Hospitalized After Camden Yards Stampede
By Baltimore Sun Staff Reports

Seven unidentified men were taken to a Baltimore hospital and three will be held overnight for observation after sustaining injuries in a stampede at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Thursday afternoon.

Details remain scarce about the incident, but witnesses told The Sun the stampede was caused by a large group of candidates for the Orioles’ open general manager position all trying to rush into an interview room at once. Only eight candidates were officially scheduled to interview for the much sought-after job, but at least three times that many people showed up at the ballpark Thursday in an attempt to gain consideration.

“This is the job that everyone wants, and so we all were trying desperately to be first to speak to (Orioles owner Peter Angelos),” said one of the potential GMs, who was released from the hospital with minor injuries and asked not to be identified by name. “We’re talking about a successful, stable organization with the best owner in baseball. Who wouldn’t want to step into that situation?” ...

Padres Said to Be Leading Charge for Fielder
By Ken Rosenthal, FoxSports.com

The San Diego Padres could be close to adding another big bat to their stable of sluggers.

According to multiple baseball sources, the team is currently the favorite to land free agent first baseman Prince Fielder, whose contract with the Milwaukee Brewers expired after this past season.

With chunks of excess cash burning a hole in the pockets of new general manager Josh Byrnes and Fielder said to be keen on playing 81 games a year at the bandbox known at PETCO Park, there is reason for both sides to be optimistic about an agreement.

“Money, as we all know, is no object for the Padres,” said a source with knowledge of the negotiations. “And even though they already led the National League in home runs last season, they have an opening at first base. Plus, Prince feels he could hit 60 homers a year thanks to PETCO’s practically Little League-sized right field.” ...

Red Sox Lock Up Epstein, Francona For Long Term
By Gordon Edes, ESPNBoston.com

BOSTON -- Just days after finishing off their third World Series Championship in eight years, the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday ensured that two key pieces of their operation will remain with the team for years to come.

Team officials confirmed that general manager Theo Epstein will receive a five-year contract extension that will kick in when his current deal expires after next season; they also confirmed that manager Terry Francona’s 2012 and 2013 options, worth a total of $8.75 million, will be picked up and supplemented with two additional years at a slightly higher rate. Exact terms of the extensions were not disclosed, but a press conference has been scheduled for Wednesday at Fenway Park.

Epstein and Francona presided over a Red Sox club that won 93 games in the regular season, holding off the Tampa Bay Rays for the American League wild card, then breezed through the postseason, beating the Atlanta Braves in five games in the World Series.

Epstein has been lauded for his recent signings of Carl Crawford and John Lackey, key pieces of the team’s 2011 success, while Francona’s relaxed clubhouse -- characterized by in-game sessions of fried chicken, beer and video games -- is said to have been crucial in preventing panic as the Rays made a late-season push. ...

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As you probably know by now, Trevor Hoffman is being given some time off to work on his mechanics after blowing his fifth save of the season in 10 tries on Tuesday. Hoffman likely will get a chance to step back into the closer role sometime soon and at least pick up the four saves he needs to reach 600 in his career, but there's no guarantee.

In what might be the most trying situation Hoffman has faced, I thought it would be nice to examine his extraordinary career.

134 pitchers have enjoyed a 30-save season in the major leagues. Of those pitchers, only 70 have managed at least two such seasons (granted, a few of these like Jonathan Broxton figure to pick up more). Here's what the numbers look like as we head up the ladder:

At least 3 30-save seasons: 48 pitchers
At least 4 30-save seasons: 40
At least 5 30-save seasons: 26
At least 6 30-save seasons: 19
At least 7 30-save seasons: 11
At least 8 30-save seasons: 8
At least 9 30-save seasons: 3
At least 13 30-save seasons: 1

The guy all by himself is Hoffman, with 14 30-save seasons, two more than Mariano Rivera. Hoffman also is 63 total saves ahead of Rivera on the all-time list.

But the point of the breakdown is to illustrate how absurdly consistent Hoff has been. It's relatively easy for any good pitcher to be a successful closer for a short period of time if given the opportunity, which is why closers tend to be overvalued.

On the other hand, not many guys are successful at it for a long period of time. Closers get hurt, get moved into (or back into) a starting role, get traded to a team that already has a closer or simply can't hold up in a job that requires you to live on the edge. Small sample sizes and fan and media emphasis blow failures out of proportion. That's why the rate of attrition is so high, as any fantasy owner trying to draft saves can tell you.

Rivera probably will go down as the greatest closer of all time and wind up as the all-time saves leader, but Hoffman is something special in his own right.

He became a regular closer in 1994 for San Diego, a year after the Padres acquired him from Florida as part of a trade for Gary Sheffield and just three years after the Reds converted him from infield to pitcher in the minor leagues. He has continued in that role ever since, with the exception of 2003, which he missed almost all of while recovering from shoulder surgery.

That's 15 seasons in which Hoffman has been a closer and pitched in at least 45 games. In 11 of those seasons, Hoffman posted a FIP below 3.00, and he never posted a WHIP of worse than 1.18.

In recent years at least, he's done this without what people would call "closer stuff." FanGraphs has data on pitch type and velocity going back to 2002, and in that time, Hoffman's fastball has averaged 85.5 mph. But he's been successful anyways because of his control and his changeup, a good pitch that helps make his fastball look faster. In a position highlighted by blazing heaters, power sliders and Rivera's devastating cutter, Hoffman's repertoire has been an effective oddity.

Despite his more finesse-based approach, Hoffman has employed one of the more badass closer intro songs out there -- AC/DC's "Hell's Bells -- at least since 1998. That's another reason to like him, but I've got a more personal one as well, if you will indulge me.

About four years ago, I was in college and went to a formal at a hotel in downtown Chicago. I was in the lobby waiting for an elevator when a guy walked up next to me. I looked over and after a few seconds became pretty sure it was Trevor Hoffman. This was before I started interviewing professional athletes for work purposes, so I was a little awe-struck. Nonetheless, I normally wouldn't have bothered him, except that I was, shall we say, a bit less than clear-headed at the time. Because of this, rather than talking to Hoffman like a normal person, what came out of my mouth was, "Are you who I think you are?" Looking back on it, it's kind of amazing he didn't at the very best ignore me or answer with a gruff "no." But he didn't. He politely answered "yes," and patiently waited while my date got a camera out to take a picture. It was more courtesy than I probably deserved and certainly showed a lot of grace on Hoffman' part.

I just hope that whenever the time comes, Hoffman is able to leave the game he loves with the same kind of grace.

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2009: 80-82, 3rd in NL Central. Pythagorean record of 78-84.
Key Additions: SPs Randy Wolf and Doug Davis, RP LaTroy Hawkins, OFs Carlos Gomez and Jim Edmonds, C Gregg Zaun
Key Losses: CF Mike Cameron, SS JJ Hardy, IF Felipe Lopez, C Jason Kendall, SP Braden Looper
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 78-84, tied for 3rd in NL Central. CHONE – 81-81, tied for 2nd. CAIRO – 83.8-78.2, tied for 3rd.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.84 FIP (29th in MLB), 5.15 for starters, 4.33 for relievers
2010 – Wolf should provide a big upgrade over Looper, who was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last season. Yovani Gallardo leads a staff that should be better than last year, although less so if the Brewers insist on keeping Jeff Suppan in the rotation. At 42, Trevor Hoffman will hit the wall eventually, but I wouldn't feel confident predicting it will be this year.
Hitting: 2009 – .335 wOBA (9th in MLB)
2010 – The Brewers' 1-2 punch of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun is as good as just about any in baseball, but they are surrounded by a bunch of question marks. Among those: Can Carlos Gomez and Alcides Escobar hit consistently at the big league level? Can Casey McGehee possibly repeat his out-of-nowhere 2009? What the heck happened to Corey Hart?
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of 9.9 (11th in MLB)
2010 – In Escobar and Gomez, the Brew Crew should have outstanding up-the-middle defense for years to come, although it's not like they were replacing terrible gloves in Hardy and Cameron. Fielder and Braun rightfully are known for their hitting.

Reasons to Watch
1. Alcides Escobar: There seems to be little doubt among scouts that Escobar will be an elite defender at shortstop, and that talent in itself creates a valuable player. The question is if Escobar will hit enough to go up to that next level. He has two things going for him: contact and speed, which helped him hit .304 in 134 MLB plate appearances last season. But Escobar also has never met a pitch he didn't want to swing at (just 4 walks in those 134 PA), and his career high in homers in the minors was eight. At 23 years old, there's time for improvement, but you have to wonder if Escobar will ever provide much more offensively than an empty batting average. With his defense, that could be enough, but the Brewers surely would love to see more.
2. Rickie Weeks: Escobar's potential double-play partner has tremendous talent but has yet to put it all together at the big league level. Injuries have played a role, including last season, when Weeks was lost for the year in May due to a torn tendon sheath in his wrist. Weeks was slugging .517 at the time, so the Brewers will have to hope the wrist is fully healed and won't stand in the way of him picking up where he left off.
3. Yovani Gallardo: After missing most of 2008 due to knee surgery, Gallardo came back strong in 2009, but there was one troubling statistic he will have to address. In 2007, Gallardo walked about 3 batters per nine innings. Last year, that number jumped to about 4.5, the fourth-highest rate of any qualified pitcher. Gallardo increased his ground ball rate, and he strikes out a ton of batters, but he's going to have to correct the walk issue if he is going to develop into the elite starter he should.

Paint By Numbers: Out of all pitchers with 150 innings last season, Suppan's 5.70 FIP was worse than anyone else's, except teammate Braden Looper. The Brewers let Looper go but kept Suppan, who also had easily the worst K/BB ratio in MLB at 1.08. ... Despite pitching just 114 1/3 innings, David Bush managed to lead the majors in HBP, with 15. It was the fifth straight season Bush had reached double digits in that category. ... Casey McGehee spent six seasons in the minors with the Cubs, never reaching an .800 OPS. Chicago released him after giving him a cup of coffee late in 2008, and Milwaukee picked him up. All McGehee did for the Brewers in '09 was have a career season in the majors, notching an .859 OPS and also setting a personal best with 16 home runs in just 394 plate appearances.

Blog Jog: Nicholas Zettel of Bernie's Crew offers 2010 projections for Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks, while Jim Breen thinks fans might be too preoccupied with Carlos Gomez to turn a critical enough gaze on Corey Hart. ... Brew Crew Ball's Kyle Lobner has a comprehensive team roundup on the Brewers' only off day of Spring Training. ... Brewed Sports takes FanGraphs' Marc Hulet's theory on fifth starters and applies it to the Brewers' situation.

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Baseball, perhaps more than any other sport, loves its unwritten rules.

One of the most stringent is "Don't show up thine opponent, or expect to get plunked." A guy showboats, and he better watch his back the next time he steps up.

But is it right?

We saw this scenario played out again -- in Spring Training -- yesterday, when Barry Zito nailed Prince Fielder in the back in the first inning. The reason behind it, acknowledged by most everyone except a fine-averse Zito, was Fielder's celebration after a walk-off homer against the Giants last September.

You can see the original offending incident here.

My feeling is that Fielder and the Brewers were having some fun after a dramatic moment on their home field. If you don't want to see that kind of thing happen, don't give up the home run. And if you want to get revenge, strike him out next time.

At least Zito had the sense to hit Fielder in a padded area (not that it's difficult), but it's still something I'd rather not see.

But maybe that's just me. What do you all think?

Retaliation via HBP: acceptable part of the game, or dangerous and silly artifact of another era?

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