Hitting The Cutoff Man

2009: 83-78, 2nd in NL Central. Pythagorean record of 84-77.
Key Additions: CF Marlon Byrd, RF Xavier Nady, SP Carlos Silva
Key Losses: RF Milton Bradley, 1F/OF Jake Fox, SP Rich Harden, RP Kevin Gregg
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 80-82, 2nd in NL Central. CHONE – 79-83, 4th. CAIRO – 83.8-78.2, 3rd

Pitching: 2009 – 4.11 FIP (7th in MLB), 3.95 for starters, 4.45 for relievers
2010 – The starting pitching should be solid again, but the bullpen bears watching. Closer Carlos Marmol is electric but erratic and with Angel Guzman out for the year, the right side of the pen is very inexperienced. That's not necessarily bad but makes the unit's fortunes less predictable.
Hitting: 2009 – .323 wOBA (21st in MLB)
2010 – The offense is due for a rebound, as guys like Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto should bounce back somewhat from abysmal years. A healthy season from Aramis Ramirez would be a big help as well.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -19.8 (21st in MLB)
2010 – Byrd isn't a great center fielder, but he'll help just by pushing Kosuke Fukudome back to his much more natural right field. Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot (when he plays) make for a good combo in the middle infield.

Reasons to Watch
1. Carlos Marmol: You never know what's going to happen when Marmol enters the game. He could walk three straight hitters or strike out three straight, or even do one after the other. With Gregg gone and Guzman out, the Cubs are counting on Marmol to find the strike zone often enough to hold down leads, but you can bet it won't be a smooth ride.
2. Alfonso Soriano: To say 2009 was a rough season for Soriano but be understating things considerably. Limited to 117 games by a knee injury that also left him playing hurt a lot of the time, Sori was dreadful at the plate and in the field, culminating in a negative WAR total for the year. He's almost sure to improve considerably this time around, but will he improve enough to make his remaining contract look anything other than horrendous?
3. Carlos Silva: The Cubs had to take Silva off the Mariners' hands in order to get rid of Milton Bradley this offseason. But coming off an 8.60 ERA in eight games last season and a 6.46 mark in 28 games the year before, Silva appears to be a contender for the fifth spot in the rotation. If Silva can manage to turn his career around, it would make the Bradley dump a little more palatable.

Paint By Numbers: Of all pitchers who threw at least 50 innings last season, Marmol had the sixth-highest K/9 ratio at 11.31 but also the second-highest BB/9 ratio at 7.91. Marmol's .171 batting average against trailed only Jonathan Broxton. ... In his 2008 rookie season, Geovany Soto put up a .332 BABIP (comapred with the league average of about .300), but last season that number fell to .246, helping to explain Soto's steep decline. If Geo bounces back in 2009, many will say it's because he got in shape, but a closer to average BABIP likely will play a role as well. ... Ryan Theriot hit seven home runs in his first three big league seasons. He then hit seven in 2009, with all of them coming between May 1 and June 29. Perhaps in looking for more power, Theriot gave up some plate discipline, as his K/BB ratio dropped from a superb 1.26 in 2008 to a below-average 0.55 last season.

Blog Jog:Dave Szymborski of ESPN.com's Max Info blog projects Alfonso Soriano's 2010 performance, factoring in the impact of new hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo. ... Another Cubs Blog's mb21 takes Szymborski's work a step further by applying the "Jaramillo Effect" to the rest of the Cubs' projected regular hitters. ... ACB also takes a look at how the Cubs' bullpen is shaping up at this point in Spring Training and how that will affect the makeup of the 40-man roster. ... Brad from Cubs Stats considers the prospect of a "retooled" Carlos Silva.

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First off, sorry for the long delay between posts. I’ve taken a new job that involved moving across the country, and things got a little hectic on me.

But now I’m operational again, and it’s coming at the perfect time, as pitchers and catchers start reporting to Spring Training Feb. 17 (although some teams wait until the 21st). To mark the occasion, I’ll be posting a different list looking ahead at the new season every day between now and when the first camps open.

Since there are six days left until Feb. 17, today's list is "6 Most Interesting Off-Season Moves." These aren't necessarily the biggest or most important moves, just the ones that caught my attention the most.

Phillies acquire Roy Halladay from Blue Jays and deal Cliff Lee to the Mariners
This was the biggest deal of the offseason and also the most interesting because of the Phillies' decision to swap aces. Philly could have gotten Halladay and still kept Lee, but apparently felt that would have left their farm system in bad shape. Still, the prospects they gave up for Halladay are more highly regarded than those they picked up for Lee, and you have to wonder whether the difference between the two pitchers is big enough to make it all worthwhile. The Phillies still look like serious World Series contenders this season, but this pair of trades was a little puzzling.

Red Sox sign Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre
Neither Cameron nor Beltre has a particularly bigtime reputation, and they're both low batting average hitters. But both players are productive at the plate and superb with the glove -- Cameron in center field and Beltre at third base. These signings indicate Boston's newfound dedication to run prevention, something the organization shares with other cutting-edge teams like the Mariners and A's. Beltre and Cameron figure to be difference-makers in what could be a very tight AL East race.

Cardinals name Mark McGwire hitting coach; Cubs name Rudy Jaramillo hitting coach
Putting aside the hubub of McGwire's PED admission, his hiring and that of Jaramillo are interesting as they relate to the issue of a batting coach's real impact on a team. The importance of these coaches at the big league level tends to be overstated in my opinion, making them easy scapegoats during tough times. But it will be fascinating to see how these two guys do. The Cubs' offense is poised for a rebound regardless of coaching, as it's hard to believe players like Geovany Soto and Alfonso Soriano will be as bad as they were last season, but Jaramillo has a sterling reputation and could provide an extra boost. McGwire has gotten glowing reviews from players who have worked with him privately and might make a difference for Cardinals hitters not named Albert Pujols.

Royals sign Jason Kendall to a two-year contract
The Royals have made a litany of baffling moves recently, but this signing stands out. How does a team that figures to be nowhere near a playoff race justify not only signing the aging Kendall, but to a two-year deal? Of course, the easy answer is some mythical combination of "veteran leadership" and "grit," but the fact is that Kendall hasn't managed an OBP above .331 or a slugging percentage above .324 the past three seasons. In other words, he's an offensive liability, even for a catcher. The Royals could have signed someone younger and cheaper to do just as poorly, but if they did that, they wouldn't be the Royals.

A's sign Ben Sheets
Sheets missed all of last season after having elbow surgery and has started 25 or more games only once since 2004. But the small-market A's, looking to compete in what figures to be a rough-and-tumble AL West, outbid the competition for his services, inking Sheets to a one-year deal worth $10 million plus incentives. Will Sheets help keep Oakland in the playoff race, or at least stay healthy long enough to get flipped for prospects at the trade deadline? That remains to be seen.

Cubs trade Milton Bradley to Mariners for Carlos Silva
This was one of those classic "our problem for your problem" deals. Bradley had worn out his welcome in Chicago, to put it mildly, having been suspended from the team late in the season. Silva was making a lot of money and pitching terribly in Seattle. Basically this trade boiled down to the Cubs taking on the final two years of Silva's horrid deal in exchange for getting rid of Bradley plus acquiring some cash, which went toward signing Marlon Byrd. But while Bradley's situation in Chicago probably was untenable, he figures to produce a lot more than Silva this season and could be a real asset to the M's.

Tomorrow: 5 Intriguing Players to Watch in '10