Hitting The Cutoff Man

The Dodgers beat the Padres on Monday in a battle of woeful NL West clubs, and like many LA victories these days, the driving force largely consisted of two players. Clayton Kershaw gave up two runs in a complete game, and Matt Kemp doubled, tripled and drove in a run.

You could sum up the Dodgers’ season by saying that nearly everything has gone wrong, except for Kershaw and Kemp. The former is one of the top few pitchers in the National League; the latter is one of the NL’s best position players. The rest of the team has resembled a black hole.

That brought me to this question: Are the Dodgers baseball’s most top-heavy team? There’s no precise way to answer that since “top-heavy” has no precise definition when it comes to baseball teams.

But I took an entirely unscientific shot anyway. For each team, I added the best two players’ FanGraphs wins above replacement (fWAR) -- through Wednesday's games -- and divided that number by the entire team’s. What I found was that my hunch was almost correct, but just like pitchers around baseball, it was foiled by a certain slugger residing north of the border.

Baseball’s five most top-heavy teams

1. Toronto Blue Jays
Jose Bautista (6.9) + Yunel Escobar (4.2) / 26.4 total = 42.05 %
Comment: Bautista holds a sliver of an edge over Dustin Pedroia as baseball’s most valuable player by fWAR. The guy simply is the best hitter on the planet right now, and it’s not close. Escobar, traded from Atlanta to Toronto last season, is vastly outperforming his Braves replacement, Alex Gonzalez.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Matt Kemp (5.3) + Clayton Kershaw (4.7) / 24.3 total = 41.15 %
Comment: The Dodgers only have five other players with even 1 WAR. Meanwhile, Kershaw ranks sixth among MLB pitchers and Kemp seventh among MLB position players. It’s lonely being good at Chavez Ravine this year.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew McCutchen (5.2) + Neil Walker (2.0) / 17.7 total = 40.68 %
Comment: When you look at this, it is both difficult to see how the Pirates hung around near the top of the NL Central standings so long and easy to see why they have been backsliding of late. The Bucs have been a great story but also one with a single strong main character in McCutchen and not much else that promises sustainability.

4. Seattle Mariners
Felix Hernandez (3.7) + Doug Fister (3.0) / 17.0 total = 39.41 %
Comment: Here is a true fact – The Mariners’ top three position players by fWAR are Brendan Ryan, June callup Dustin Ackley and Adam Kennedy. Yeesh. Fister has now been traded to the Tigers, leaving fellow pitcher Michael Pineda (2.7 fWAR) as the team’s second-best performer.

5. Houston Astros
Michael Bourn (3.4) + Hunter Pence (2.5) / 15 total = 39.33 %
Comment: Yep, the Astros’ two best players this year are no longer Astros. The next two guys in line are Clint Barmes and the shell of Carlos Lee. In other words, feel the excitement of Astros baseball!

And in case you were wondering, for some reason, your least top-heavy (most bottom-heavy?) is …

30. Atlanta Braves
Brian McCann (3.6) + Tim Hudson (2.7) / 29.4 total = 21.43 %
Comment: Despite being solidly in playoff position, the Braves have not had too many real standout performers this year. Of course, Bourn is now in the fold, joining a cast of solid players (plus Scott Proctor).

Conclusion: First of all, it's obviously the case that the results would be somewhat different if we measured by each team's top player only or top three players or top four players.

It does make sense that most bad teams rank higher in this rating than most good teams. After all, even bad teams tend to have one or two good players, and their WAR will be a higher percentage of the team's than someone on a good team. But there are exceptions. Four of the bottom five teams are the playoff-contending Braves, Rangers, Yankees and Cardinals, but the Marlins and A's are mixed in with them. The Phillies and Red Sox, baseball's two best teams, rank in the middle of the pack.

So what do we learn? Well, not much. But hey, at least the Dodgers lead the National League in something other than lawsuits.

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2009: 95-67, 1st in NL West. Pythagorean record of 99-63.
Key Additions: OFs Reed Johnson and Garret Anderson, IF Jamey Carroll
Key Losses: 2B Orlando Hudson, SPs Randy Wolf and Jon Garland, OF Juan Pierre, IF Mark Loretta
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 82-80, 3rd in NL West. CHONE – 83-79, tie 1st. CAIRO – 84.6-77.6, 2nd.

Pitching: 2009 – 3.80 FIP (21st in MLB), 3.83 for starters, 3.74 for relievers
2010 – The Dodgers decided not to offer Wolf arbitration, then chose not to sign a replacement, leaving the rotation a little thin. LA has Vicente Padilla penciled in as its fourth starter, while the fifth slot is still a competition between several shaky candidates. The pen has some issues as well, but the Dodgers do have the best closer in the NL in Jonathan Broxton.
Hitting: 2009 – .331 wOBA (12th in MLB)
2010 – LA has one of the top outfields in baseball, led by the dynamic Matt Kemp. On the other hand, the Dodgers are waiting for Russell Martin and James Loney to realize the potential they showed earlier in their big league careers.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -0.1 (13th in MLB)
2010 – Manny Ramirez is Manny Ramirez in left field, and Andre Ethier has a -17.6 UZR in right over the past three years. Replacing Orlando Hudson with Ronnie Belliard at second base probably doesn't create as big of a defensive drop-off as most people would think.

Reasons to Watch
1. Clayton Kershaw: Kershaw walked 4.79 batters per nine innings last season. And that pretty much concludes the critical statements you can make about the left-hander's age 21 season. Kershaw's 9.74 K/9 ratio ranked seventh in MLB, his 0.37 HR/9 ratio ranked second, and his .198 batting average against ranked first. Even with all of the walks, Kershaw posted the eighth-best FIP in baseball in 2009, dominating hitters with a mid-90s fastball and a curve Vin Scully once called "Public Enemy No. 1." If Kershaw stays the way he is, he'll be a great pitcher; if he figures out how to cut down on the walks and increase his pitch efficiency, he'll be one of the best.
2. Martin and Loney: In 2007, Russell Martin hit .293/.374/.469, while James Loney (after arriving in the big leagues in June), put up a line of .331/.381/.538. It looked like Dodgers fans could count on having an elite catcher-first base duo for years to come, but things have taken a bit of a sour turn the past couple of years. Both players' power output has nosedived, as evidenced by their sub-.400 slugging percentages last season. Martin was a well below-average hitter in 2009, while Loney was about average, which is not what you're looking for from your first baseman. Both players are young -- Martin less so due to a heavy workload behind the plate -- so it's too early to write them off, but the Dodgers sure would like to see these guys hitting like it's 2007 again.
3. The McCourts: The bitter divorce proceedings of owner Frank McCourt and wife/former team CEO Jamie have been played out in public over the past several months, leaving the Dodgers caught in the web of their "parents'" bickering. No matter what anyone says, you can bet the team's passive offseason was not a coincidence, as the organization's financial situation has destabilized rapidly. It would take far too long to recount every twist and turn this drama has taken, but suffice it to say there is a lot of turmoil in Dodgertown, and that nobody knows how the whole thing will end up being resolved. We'll all have to stay tuned.


Paint By Numbers: No pitcher with at least 50 IP last season was anywhere close to Jonathan Broxton in the FIP category. Broxton's mark of 1.97 was 36 points ahead of Zack Greinke. Big Jon, whose average fastball of 97.7 mph was 1.1 mph faster than anybody else's, struck out 13.5 batters per nine innings. Rafael Soriano was second at 12.13. ... It's now pretty well accepted that over time, players will perform at about the same level as normal in key situations, and that the idea of "clutch" is based largely on luck and small sample sizes. Still, it's hard to ignore what Andre Ethier has done the past two seasons. In 2009, he came up with six walk-off hits, four of which were home runs. He had three other walk-offs, including a homer, in 2008. In high-leverage situations (ones in which the at-bat will have the greatest impact on the outcome of the game), Ethier recorded an OPS of 1.138 last season and 1.053 the year before.

Blog Jog: Joshua Fisher of Dodger Divorce dutifully recaps the latest developments in the McCourt saga. ... Dodger Thoughts' Jon Weisman monitors the battle for LA's No. 5 starter position and wonders anxiously, "Could it really be Russ Ortiz?" ... True Blue LA examines the Spring Training performances of some key players and looks at fifth starter candidate and Rule 5 draftee Carlos Monasterios. ... Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness goes over some options if the Dodgers choose to acquire a left-handed hitter and expresses relief about averting the Angel Berroa crisis.

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Four more days until the first pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Therefore, it seems like a good time to look ahead to four potentially interesting series on the schedule for this season.

I didn’t include matchups between division rivals here, since those are pretty obvious and provide intrigue every year.

April 12, 14-15, Red Sox @ Twins – On the 12th, outdoor baseball will return to Minneapolis for the first time since 1981, the last year of old Metropolitan Stadium. Ever since, the Twins have been safely tucked away in the ugly but warm confines of the Metrodome. Until this season, that is. Target Field is opening its doors for this prime series against the Red Sox. These two teams figure to put on a good show, as long as they’re not frozen solid. The average temperature in Minneapolis in April is a high of 57 and a low of 36, with the record low being a balmy 2 degrees. At least all three games in this series are day games, with the first night contest taking place to start the following series against the Royals. For the sake of Twins fans, let’s hope Target Field has hot chocolate dispensers in the backs of every seat.

June 22-24, Cubs @ Mariners – This interleague series is certainly interesting on its own merits. These two teams figure to be playoff contenders, and the Cubs have visited Seattle only once before, in 2002. But these three games have another storyline as well: Milton Bradley’s first appearance against his last team. Bradley’s brief tenure in Chicago ended with him getting suspended late in the season. The veteran outfielder might have gotten some undeservedly rough treatment from fans and the media – his on-field performance wasn’t as bad as many perceived – but he never fit in a clubhouse that generally got along well. Even Ryan Dempster, a first-class act, said after Bradley’s suspension, “It became one of those things where you see him putting the blame on everybody else, and sometimes you have to look in the mirror and realize that maybe the biggest part of the problem is yourself and wanting to be there and wanting to play every day and wanting to have some fun. It didn't seem like he wanted to have very much fun, even from Spring Training.” There could be some serious tension here, assuming Bradley is still on the active roster at that point.

June 25-27, Yankees @ Dodgers – This will be the Bronx Bombers’ first trip to Chavez Ravine since 2004. These are two franchise with a ton of history between them, including 11 clashes in the World Series (four since the Dodgers left Brooklyn). And this series figures to come with both squads near or at the top of their respective divisions. A lot will be made of Joe Torre managing against his old club, but what’s really more interesting is what happens on the field, and this series could feature some exciting matchups. Personally I’m eager to see LA’s 22-year-old lefty strikeout machine Clayton Kershaw test his stuff against New York’s nightmare-inducing lineup, or closer Jonathan Broxton try to finish off a close game against A-Rod. Not to mention that Manny Ramirez against the Yankees tends to be entertaining.

Sept. 17-19, Angels @ Rays – Most of the series at the very end of the season are divisional matchups, as they should be, but this is one late-season interdivisional series that could have huge playoff implications. The Rays seem to be in position to stand up to the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East again, while the Angels likely will have their supremacy in the AL West challenged by at least two division competitors. Depending on how things shake out, this could even turn into a crucial battle for a wildcard berth. Plus, you have a showdown of the minds between Mike Scioscia and former bench coach Joe Maddon, now managing Tampa, and Angels pitcher Scott Kazmir potentially squaring off against his old team for the first time.

Tomorrow: 3 teams to keep an eye on

Yesterday, I took a look at the best hitters in the game who are 25 years old or younger. Now it’s time to complete our 25-man roster with the pitching staff. To review, players must have been no older than 25 at the start of the calendar year and have at least 50 innings pitched at the Major League level.

Let’s get this going, and again, feel free to point out any oversights in the comments.

SP – Tim Lincecum, SF, 25 years old. This is as obvious as it gets. The University of Washington product has pitched two full seasons and won two Cy Youngs. Fangraphs has him as the most valuable pitcher in baseball over the past two years, by a comfortable margin over Roy Halladay. He is small of stature and has an unorthodox delivery, but to say it works for him would be a massive understatement.

SP – Felix Hernandez, SEA, 23. It seems like King Felix has been around for too long to be on this list, but he first came up at age 19. His development hasn’t always been smooth, but make no mistake: Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in the big leagues. He also took major strides in 2008, as he set what was easily a career-best in FIP (which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, a stat that works on the same scale as ERA but only measures things a pitcher has complete control over: home runs, hit batters, walks and strikeouts). His 3.09 mark was 66 points better than his previous low.

SP – Josh Johnson, FLA, 25. Playing for the Marlins has kept his profile low, and injuries have caused him to miss much of two seasons. But since Johnson returned from the DL in the middle of 2008, he is 22-6, and last season he posted a 3.06 FIP. The 6-foot-7, 252-pound fireballer will draw a ton of interest if he stays relatively healthy until he hits free agency after the 2011 season.

SP – Clayton Kershaw, LAD, 21. Kershaw led all left-handed starters in FIP last season, finishing just ahead of Cliff Lee. He only gave up 119 hits in 171 innings while striking out 185, but had trouble with his control at times, walking 91. That number should improve as he learns to trust his stuff, which is terrific and includes a sizzling fastball and a huge hook.

SP – Jon Lester, BOS, 25. The Red Sox southpaw sneaks in just ahead of our age cutoff, as his 26th birthday was Jan. 7. Despite playing in Boston, Lester doesn’t get a ton of publicity, but Fangraphs has him as the ninth most valuable pitcher over the past two years, and he pitches in MLB’s toughest division.

RP – Tommy Hanson, ATL, 23. We’ll sneak in a sixth starter as our long reliever/ swing man. Hanson put on quite a show in 21 starts during his rookie season, posting a 2.89 ERA and a solid 3.50 FIP. The 116 strikeouts in 127.2 innings are evidence of his electric stuff.

RP – Jonathan Broxton, LAD, 25. Big Jon is our closer, as he was easily the most valuable reliever in baseball last season. Broxton just continues to get better, too. In his four full seasons, his FIP has progressed steadily, from 3.13 to 2.73 to 2.26 to 1.97.

RP – Joakim Soria, KC, 25. Playing in Kansas City keeps you anonymous, but Soria not only has one of the best nicknames in sports (The Mexicutioner); he’s one of the best closers around. The only relievers who have been worth more over the past three years are guys by the names of Rivera, Papelbon, Broxton and Nathan. Soria missed some time due to injury in 2009 but still saved 30 games and stuck out 69 in 53 innings.

RP – Andrew Bailey, OAK, 25. The 2009 American League Rookie of the Year wasn’t as good as his 1.84 ERA would indicate. But his 91 strikeouts and 49 hits allowed in 83.1 innings show that he’s still likely to be a force to be reckoned with in coming years.

RP – Luke Gregerson, SD, 25. Who? Gregerson had never pitched above Double-A until last season, when he came over from the St. Louis organization as a player to be named later in the trade that brought Khalil Greene to the Cards. As it turned out, Gregerson had a much better year than Greene, notching a 3.24 ERA in 72 games and striking out 93 in 75 innings. Due to a some bad luck on balls in play, he was actually even better than that, as his 2.50 FIP suggests.

RP – Phil Hughes, NYY, 23. The Yankees might put Hughes in the starting rotation this year, and it would be hard to argue with the decision. That said, the guy was outstanding out of the pen in 2009, posting a 1.40 ERA in 51.1 innings with an outstanding 65-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In the event he doesn’t develop into a solid starter, he has proven he is at least a shutdown reliever.