Hitting The Cutoff Man

Imagine this crazy All-Star scenario: a team for each division, creating a six-team tournament. Will it happen? No. Should it happen? Also, no.

But if it did, theoretically, I decided to see what the teams might look like. It was an exercise in curiosity about division strength, and also boredom.

Here is a glimpse at each team, ranked in ascending order of perceived strength. Note: I only picked an abbreviated roster for each squad, because that felt like plenty under the circumstances. Another note: Selections are based on 2011 performance only.

AL Central
Starting lineup: 1. Denard Span - CF, 2. Alex Gordon - LF, 3. Miguel Cabrera - 1B, 4. Paul Konerko - DH, 5. Brennan Boesch - RF, 6. Jhonny Peralta - SS, 7. Alex Avila - C, 8. Wilson Betemit - 3B, 9. Gordon Beckham - 2B
Bench: Asdrubal Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Carlos Quentin, Travis Hafner.
Starting pitchers: Justin Verlander, Justin Masterson, Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker, Phil Humber.
Relievers: Sergio Santos, Glen Perkins, Al Alburquerque.

Comments: It’s going to be super awkward when Beckham walks into the team clubhouse and Miguel Cabrera is all like, “What are you doing here? You have a .291 wOBA as of July 7.” And then Beckham gets all defensive because he wasn’t the one who picked the team, and besides, it’s not his fault the other options at second were Chris Getz and Alexi Casilla. What, does Miguel want to cover the whole right side of the infield by himself? No? That’s what I thought.

AL West
Starting lineup: 1. Howie Kendrick - 2B, 2. Michael Young - DH, 3. Josh Hamilton - LF, 4. Nelson Cruz - RF, 5. Adrian Beltre - 3B, 6. Justin Smoak - 1B, 7. Mike Napoli - C, 8. Peter Bourjos - CF, 9. Elvis Andrus - SS
Bench:Ian Kinsler, Bobby Abreu, Coco Crisp, Erick Aybar
Starting pitchers: Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Felix Hernandez, C.J. Wilson, Michael Pineda.
Relievers: Jordan Walden, Brandon League, Scott Downs.

Comments: This team obviously has the misfortune of drawing from only four organizations. With two of those being the A’s and Mariners, it’s not surprising the offense is a little underwhelming. Luckily, with the Angels not being defending division champs, Mike Scioscia is not this team’s manager, which means he can’t find a way to play Jeff Mathis (even though he’s not on the roster anyways).

NL West
Starting lineup: 1. Carlos Gonzalez - CF, 2. Matt Kemp - LF, 3. Pablo Sandoval - 3B, 4. Troy Tulowitzki - SS, 5. Andre Ethier - DH, 6. Justin Upton - RF, 7. Miguel Montero - C, 8. Todd Helton - 1B, 9. Jamey Carroll - 2B
Bench:Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Cameron Maybin, Chase Headley
Starting pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Daniel Hudson, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner.
Relievers: Heath Bell, Mike Adams, Sergio Romo.

Comments: Frank McCourt is suing this team for using his players without his permission. This has Helton all bent out of shape, but Ethier just looks at him and is like, “Welcome to our world.” Anyways, this lineup has good thump, something the starting pitchers here are confused but excited about. Luckily the clubhouse is stocked with some helpful brochures titled, “Run Support and You: A Guide To Feeling Loved.”

NL Central
Starting lineup: 1. Andrew McCutchen - CF, 2. Rickie Weeks - 2B, 3. Joey Votto - 1B, 4. Matt Holliday - RF, 5. Prince Fielder - DH, 6. Ryan Braun - LF, 7. Aramis Ramirez - 3B, 8. Yadier Molina - C, 9. Starlin Castro - SS
Bench:Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Brandon Phillips, Michael Bourn
Starting pitchers: Jaime Garcia, Chris Carpenter, Shaun Marcum, Zack Greinke, Matt Garza.
Relievers: Joel Hanrahan, John Axford, Sean Marshall.

Comments: “Look at all these good players!” Castro says to Ramirez. “They’re on OUR team now!” Ramirez sighs deeply and nods. Memories of the old days flood his head and push a single tear down his weathered cheek. It’s hard to think about but impossible not to. “Live in the moment and enjoy it,” he advises Castro. “People in our situation must savor the good times, fleeting as they are.” Castro looks at his older teammate, sees how the years in Chicago have beaten him down. “Sure, Aramis,” he says. “I got ya.” But he doesn’t truly understand -- not yet.

NL East
Starting lineup: 1. Jose Reyes - SS, 2. Shane Victorino - CF, 3. Gaby Sanchez - 1B, 4. Carlos Beltran - LF, 5. Brian McCann - C, 6. Mike Stanton - RF, 7. Mike Morse - DH, 8. Danny Espinosa - 2B, 9. Placido Polanco - 3B
Bench:Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Daniel Murpy, Martin Prado
Starting pitchers: Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Jair Jurrjens, Jordan Zimmermann.
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Ryan Madson.

Comments: The great thing about an all-star team is getting to imagine what it would be like if a bunch of great players got thrown together and could join forces. Like, imagine a one-two punch at the top of a lineup of Jose Reyes and Shane Victorino. What energy! Or, imagine if you could field a starting rotation with Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels AND Cliff Lee! Why, that would be insane!

AL East
Starting lineup: 1. Jacoby Ellsbury - CF, 2. Curtis Granderson - LF, 3. Jose Bautista - RF, 4. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B, 5. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, 6. David Ortiz - DH, 7. Ben Zobrist - 2B, 8. Yunel Escobar - SS, 9. Matt Wieters - C
Bench:Mark Teixeira, Dustin Pedroia, Matt Joyce, Brett Gardner
Starting pitchers: CC Sabathia, David Price, James Shields, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester.
Relievers: Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Jonathan Papelbon.

Comments: “Hey Zobrist,” Shields says, “Did you hear the exciting news? ESPN is going to broadcast all of our all-star team’s games! That’s some great exposure!” Zobrist looks down at his shoes, feeling awkward. James is so clearly thrilled, and it would be a shame to bring him down. But it’s just like his grandpa always said: Tell the truth, even if it hurts. He closes his eyes and steels himself for the task ahead. “Yes, I heard,” Zobrist says. “But there’s something you should know. When nobody on the Red Sox or Yankees is either pitching or batting, they are going to cut to a reel of Jeter’s career highlights.”

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SI.com’s Joe Lemire had a fun piece the other day about ballplayers’ at-bat music that naturally got me to daydreaming about my own hypothetical walkup tune for my professional baseball career. It’s a no-doubter for me:



Just one great song in a brilliant catalogue, which is why yesterday’s news is such a disappointment.

But this is a baseball blog, not a music blog, so in honor of The White Stripes, here is a little something on duos in baseball.

Duos in history
There are so many good ones. Gehrig and Ruth. Koufax and Drysdale. Mays and McCovey. Trammell and Whitaker. Bagwell and Biggio. Those are just a handful. And then there were the pairs whose actions went above and beyond the game, like Pee Wee Reese and Jackie Robinson.

That new/old duo down in Florida
The Rays recently signed former Red Sox Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. You may remember them from such hits as, “Unnecessary but oh-so-awesome diving cutoff of a throw from left field.” Their introductory press conference indicated this could be a fun year to follow the Rays, for reasons other than the AL East pennant race.

The duo that makes the mute button your best friend
There are lots of terrible baseball announcers out there, but there is something special about Joe Buck’s mayonnaisesque style combined with Tim McCarver’s complete lack of insight and special ability to talk to you like this is your first baseball game.



The double duo
The 1-2 starting rotation punch is a valued commodity, and the Phillies got one at the 2009 trade deadline when they acquired Cliff Lee to pair with Cole Hamels. Then in the offseason they changed duos, swapping Lee for Roy Halladay. The duo became a trio at the 2010 deadline with the acquisition of Roy Oswalt, and then in this offseason, the team resigned Lee as a free agent. Most franchises would be thrilled to have a duo made up of any two of those four pitchers, but the Phillies don’t have to chose. Much has been made about where this rotation will stack up historically, and it’s certainly one of the big storylines of the upcoming season.

The duo that thankfully does not exist
Vin Scully and …. anyone else. The one-man broadcast booth is a thing of the past, but fortunately not in LA, where Scully continues to be the best. And he doesn’t need some mouth-breathing former player to sit next to him reliving his glory days and criticizing the guys today for not being “gamers.”

The duo that should be readily available in every baseball stadium
There are certain distasteful truths you must accept when attending a baseball game. You are going to have to take out a second mortgage if you want to buy a beer. At some point, the PA is going to start blasting Ke$ha or some other form of lyrical diarrhea. There might be some idiot behind you yelling in your ear, and he might even blow chunks all over you. I don’t like it, obviously, but it’s the price of spending a day at the ballpark. But I don’t think it’s too much to ask for every stadium to carry grilled Hebrew National hot dogs (the best) and deli-style brown mustard (not that neon yellow crap). If I’ve got a quality, appropriately condiment-topped meal, I can deal with everything else -- except maybe the vomiting.

The most entertaining duo in baseball
This is a tie between Ozzie Guillen and a microphone, Ozzie Guillen and a video camera, and Ozzie Guillen and a tape recorder.

A duo that doesn’t make much sense
It’s a famous one from the famous song that happens during every seventh-inning stretch. But why do you say, “Buy me some peanuts and cracker jack,” when cracker jack already include peanuts? Why would you want both? This has always puzzled me.

The duo that is a godsend for any baseball fan
An RSS feed and Twitter. No more having to filter through junk looking for pearls of baseball wisdom. Technology gives the baseball hype a needle of the pure stuff straight into the veins.

Duo that needs to shut up and go away The McCourts. We’ll let the Stripes speak for Los Angeles … play ‘em out, guys.



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Here's an understatement: Things have not gone as planned in Seattle this season.

Here's an even bigger understatement: It's not Cliff Lee's fault.

For anyone not following the virtuoso pitching that has been taking place in the Pacific Northwest this season, Lee currently is on a historic pace. The southpaw, who soon could be traded for the third time in a year, has struck out 76 batters and walked only four heading into Tuesday's start at Yankee Stadium. That's good for a 19-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which as the Baseball-Reference Blog shows, puts him on pace to destroy Bret Saberhagen's single-season record of 11-to-1, set in the strike-shortened 1994 campaign.

That ratio almost certainly will come down some over the course of the season, but Lee has a real shot to break the record.

But while thinking about Lee's amazing season, I wondered about the worst seasons in history in terms of K/BB ratio. After checking the numbers, I'm absolutely shocked at how poor they are.

This season, no pitcher with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title has walked more batters than he has struck out, with Aaron Cook's 1.03/1 mark the lowest (although Washington's John Lannan, just sent to the minors, has 35 BBs and 24 Ks). Last season, the worst K/BB mark was Trevor Cahill's 1.25.

But if you go back through history, you find some stunning numbers.

The ultimate Bizarro Cliff Lee is Ernie Wingard, who pitched four seasons for the St. Louis Browns in the 1920s. In his career (almost 700 innings), Wingard walked more than three times as many batters as he struck out, despite being a nearly league-average pitcher (ERA+ of 96). His worst K/BB actually came in 1925, when he didn't quite qualify for the ERA title, but his rookie year of '24 was almost as bad. Although Wingard posted a 3.51 ERA and a very solid 128 ERA+, he walked 85 compared with 23 strikeouts, for a ratio of 0.27-to-1. Of his 85 walks, 14 were intentional.

That season blows my mind, both for the K/BB ratio itself and for the fact Wingard was able to be so effective in spite of it when we know that ratio has such a strong relationship with a pitcher's success.

Coming in behind Wingard is Merritt Patrick Cain, who went by 'Sugar' but put up some rancid K/BB ratios. His worst in a qualified season came in 1933 for the Philadelphia Athletics, when he managed to issue 137 free passes in 218 innings, while striking out just 43. That's a 0.31-to-1 mark. And yet somehow, like Wingard, Cain didn't have a bad year, posting a 101 ERA+.

There are no players from recent seasons anywhere near the top of the list, but here are your worst K/BB marks since 2000:

1. Nate Cornejo, DET, 2003: 194.2 IP, 58 BB, 46 K, 0.79 K/BB
2. Mike Hampton, COL, 2002: 178.2 IP, 91 BB, 74 K, 0.81 K/BB
3. Kirk Rueter, SF, 2004: 190.1 IP, 66 BB, 56 K, 0.85 K/BB
4. Damian Moss, SF/BAL, 2003: 165.2 IP, 95 BB, 81 K, 0.85 K/BB
5. Jimmy Haynes, MIL, 2000: 199.1 IP, 100 BB, 88 K, 0.88 K/BB

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2009: 85-77, 3rd in AL West. Pythagorean record of 75-87.
Key Additions: SP Cliff Lee, 2B/3B Chone Figgins, OFs Milton Bradley and Eric Byrnes, 1B Casey Kotchman
Key Losses: 3B Adrian Beltre, 1B Russell Branyan, OF Endy Chavez, SP Carlos Silva
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 82-80, 3rd in AL West. CHONE – 78-84, 4th. CAIRO – 82.6-79.4, 1st.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.39 FIP (20th in MLB), 4.41 for starters, 4.35 for relievers
2010 – Assuming Lee's strained abdominal muscle doesn't turn into a long-term problem, the Mariners have perhaps the best one-two punch in the game, with him and Felix Hernandez. They eventually should get Erik Bedard back as well, but not until at least mid-season, and in the meantime, they are going to have to count on guys like Ian Snell and Ryan Rowland-Smith to hold things together.
Hitting: 2009 – .313 wOBA (26th in MLB)
2010 – Ichiro is Ichiro, and with him and Figgins, the M's can count on a potent top of the order. A healthy, happy and productive Milton Bradley would provide some much-needed oomph to a lineup that's a little short on firepower, but just ask the Cubs about the wisdom of relying on that.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of 85.5 (1st in MLB)
2010 – The Mariners are sort of the darlings of the advanced fielding metrics revolution, and for good reason. Franklin Gutierrez is the Albert Pujols of defensive center fielders, and again, Ichiro is Ichiro. Seattle also has an elite glove at shortstop with Jack Wilson. The decision to swap Figgins and Jose Lopez between second and third base was an interesting one, but it's hard to question an organization that seems to be ahead of the defensive curve.

Reasons to Watch
1. Ichiro: As Joe Posnanski points out in his blog, the word unique is probably overused when it comes to describing baseball players, who tend to fall into one category or another. But not Ichiro, so I don't think Posnanski is exaggerating when he claims: "I don’t think there has ever been a player in baseball history quite like Ichiro Suzuki." JoePo goes on to point out that counting his time in Japan, Ichiro has more hits entering his age 36 season than anyone else, including Pete Rose and Ty Cobb. And of course, he's done it differently than anyone else, with his infield-single generating run-toward-first-as-you-swing maneuver and his ability to seemingly drop the ball in the exact location the defense has left open. Let's all enjoy watching the guy, because chances are, there will never be another Ichiro.
2. Milton Bradley: Nobody is going to argue about Bradley's talent, and I would not dispute the notion that he got some unfair treatment from fans and even some members of the media last season. Still, when you're changing teams nearly every season, in large part because almost every one of your employers develops some sort of problem with you, chances are it says more about you than it does about other people. And yet Bradley refuses to accept this, seemingly clinging to an everyone's-out-to-get-me mentality. In the end, winning is the best source of chemistry, so how Bradley acts in the clubhouse is not as important as how he plays on the field. But if times get tough in Seattle this season, it's probably just a matter of time before there's another incident.
3. Ken Griffey Jr.: The Mariners might have been thinking more with their hearts than their heads when they brought Griffey back for his 22nd season, but even in this golden age of objective analysis, it's hard to blame them. The guy is a franchise icon, and although he's barely a shadow of his former self, he's still got that sweet swing, and he did manage to hit 19 home runs last season. Griffey, who figures to DH against right-handed pitching, likely will retire after this season, making "winning one for Griff" a big goal for Seattle. As a baseball fan, especially one who got into the game during Griffey's prime, it's hard to think of a nicer story than that.

Paint By Numbers: Franklin Gutierrez's UZR in center field last season was a stunning 29.1, which is more amazing considering he had played a total of 29 big league games at the position before 2009. Individual single-season fielding metrics are not terribly reliable, but a number about 11 points better than anyone else's is impossible to ignore, especially since Gutierrez put up a 21.3 UZR in 97 games in right field in 2008. ... Ichiro racked up 50 infield hits last season, 21 more than second-place Michael Bourn, and only six of those came on bunts. He has averaged about 42 infield hits per season since coming to America. ... Chone Figgins first received significant big league playing time in 2003 and posted a 7.4 percent walk rate. Since then, that rate has increased in every single season, culminating in last year's 13.9 percent and career-high .395 OBP.

Blog Jog: At Lookout Landing, Jeff Sullivan suggests some possible reasons why the Mariners waived free agent signee Ryan Garko, while Matthew discusses the relative merits of extra outfielders Eric Byrnes and Ryan Langerhans. ... Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner looks at the bright side of Seattle's health woes, pointing out that April is as good a time as any to be hurting. And coming off a historically good defensive season, Cameron looks at a reasonable expectation for 2010. ... Meanwhile, Cameron explains Seattle's No. 6 finish in FanGraphs' organizational rankings.

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First off, sorry for the long delay between posts. I’ve taken a new job that involved moving across the country, and things got a little hectic on me.

But now I’m operational again, and it’s coming at the perfect time, as pitchers and catchers start reporting to Spring Training Feb. 17 (although some teams wait until the 21st). To mark the occasion, I’ll be posting a different list looking ahead at the new season every day between now and when the first camps open.

Since there are six days left until Feb. 17, today's list is "6 Most Interesting Off-Season Moves." These aren't necessarily the biggest or most important moves, just the ones that caught my attention the most.

Phillies acquire Roy Halladay from Blue Jays and deal Cliff Lee to the Mariners
This was the biggest deal of the offseason and also the most interesting because of the Phillies' decision to swap aces. Philly could have gotten Halladay and still kept Lee, but apparently felt that would have left their farm system in bad shape. Still, the prospects they gave up for Halladay are more highly regarded than those they picked up for Lee, and you have to wonder whether the difference between the two pitchers is big enough to make it all worthwhile. The Phillies still look like serious World Series contenders this season, but this pair of trades was a little puzzling.

Red Sox sign Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre
Neither Cameron nor Beltre has a particularly bigtime reputation, and they're both low batting average hitters. But both players are productive at the plate and superb with the glove -- Cameron in center field and Beltre at third base. These signings indicate Boston's newfound dedication to run prevention, something the organization shares with other cutting-edge teams like the Mariners and A's. Beltre and Cameron figure to be difference-makers in what could be a very tight AL East race.

Cardinals name Mark McGwire hitting coach; Cubs name Rudy Jaramillo hitting coach
Putting aside the hubub of McGwire's PED admission, his hiring and that of Jaramillo are interesting as they relate to the issue of a batting coach's real impact on a team. The importance of these coaches at the big league level tends to be overstated in my opinion, making them easy scapegoats during tough times. But it will be fascinating to see how these two guys do. The Cubs' offense is poised for a rebound regardless of coaching, as it's hard to believe players like Geovany Soto and Alfonso Soriano will be as bad as they were last season, but Jaramillo has a sterling reputation and could provide an extra boost. McGwire has gotten glowing reviews from players who have worked with him privately and might make a difference for Cardinals hitters not named Albert Pujols.

Royals sign Jason Kendall to a two-year contract
The Royals have made a litany of baffling moves recently, but this signing stands out. How does a team that figures to be nowhere near a playoff race justify not only signing the aging Kendall, but to a two-year deal? Of course, the easy answer is some mythical combination of "veteran leadership" and "grit," but the fact is that Kendall hasn't managed an OBP above .331 or a slugging percentage above .324 the past three seasons. In other words, he's an offensive liability, even for a catcher. The Royals could have signed someone younger and cheaper to do just as poorly, but if they did that, they wouldn't be the Royals.

A's sign Ben Sheets
Sheets missed all of last season after having elbow surgery and has started 25 or more games only once since 2004. But the small-market A's, looking to compete in what figures to be a rough-and-tumble AL West, outbid the competition for his services, inking Sheets to a one-year deal worth $10 million plus incentives. Will Sheets help keep Oakland in the playoff race, or at least stay healthy long enough to get flipped for prospects at the trade deadline? That remains to be seen.

Cubs trade Milton Bradley to Mariners for Carlos Silva
This was one of those classic "our problem for your problem" deals. Bradley had worn out his welcome in Chicago, to put it mildly, having been suspended from the team late in the season. Silva was making a lot of money and pitching terribly in Seattle. Basically this trade boiled down to the Cubs taking on the final two years of Silva's horrid deal in exchange for getting rid of Bradley plus acquiring some cash, which went toward signing Marlon Byrd. But while Bradley's situation in Chicago probably was untenable, he figures to produce a lot more than Silva this season and could be a real asset to the M's.

Tomorrow: 5 Intriguing Players to Watch in '10

Yesterday we looked at possible New Year's resolutions for the National League teams. Today, we give the American League the same treatment.

Baltimore Orioles – Bring in the other Adam Jones for a tryout. He’s not too busy these days, and the team could use some excitement until Matt Wieters breaks out.

Boston Red Sox – Buy a really nice card and a maybe a lovely bouquet for Mike Lowell, to break awkwardness of having him back, at least for now.

Chicago White Sox – Now that Juan Pierre is the starting left fielder, instruct shortstop Alexei Ramirez to go out twice as far as normal to cut off throws.

Cleveland Indians – The starting lineup is going to have a few unproven commodities this season, so bring back Pedro Serrano for some offensive insurance.

Detroit Tigers – Since a lot of Tigers supporters might be saddened by the departure via trade of fan-favorite Curtis Granderson, cheer them up with some discounted General Motors stock.

Kansas City Royals – Keep cornering that market on the worst players in the game. Seriously though, that Jason Kendall signing was superb. Keep up the great work.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – Pick a city and stick with it.

Minnesota Twins – Ink multi-billion dollar deal with hot chocolate manufacturer due to opening of open-air Target Field.

New York Yankees – What the hell, expand payroll to $300 million.

Oakland Athletics – Finally enact Billy Beane’s evil master plan to replace actual flesh-and-blood human players with computers. Start Rookie of the Year campaign for new MacBook Pro.

Seattle Mariners – Come up with a hip, catchy nickname for the new starting pitching duo of Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee. At the same time, alert Seattle media that arrival of free agent Chone Figgins does not mean they are permitted to use phrase, “Gettin’ Figgy with it.”

Tampa Bay Rays – Last season was a bit of a disappointment after the 2008 World Series run, and maybe what was missing was a little bit of an edge or a mean streak. Strike fear into the hearts of opponents by changing team name to “Devil Rays.”

Toronto Blue Jays – Since Vernon Wells is not making himself useful on the field and will be making almost $100 million over the next five years, try to find ways for him to pitch in elsewhere. Maybe he can operate the Rogers Centre roof or something.

Texas Rangers – Now that Darren Oliver is back, really commit to re-living the glory years of the mid-90s. Hey, what’s Rick Helling up to these days?