Hitting The Cutoff Man

When I got the chance to cover the Cubs during the second half of last season, one of the many hot topics swirling around regarded the disappointing sophomore campaign of 2008 NL Rookie of the Year catcher Geovany Soto.

Fans and media had all sorts of theories for Soto's awful performance at the plate and injuries. They blamed his participation in the World Baseball Classic and said he spent the off-season eating too many Oreos and/or smoking too much pot, rather than getting in shape. No doubt these ideas probably had some degree of merit to them, but at the same time, Soto also was a victim of a pretty astonishing swing of luck.

To recap this succinctly: We can generally expect hitters to put up around a .300 average on balls in play (BABIP). In '08, Soto's BABIP was .332, but in '09, it dropped to .246. He did hit the ball with less authority, resulting in a drop in his line drive rate, but the move from really good luck to really bad luck clearly played a major role.

This season has played out as Soto's redemption story. He supposedly worked hard during the off-season and dropped 40 pounds. His BABIP is back up to .327, but he also has an excellent line drive rate of 24.1 percent, showing how he's been hitting the ball hard. He's hit seven home runs and slugged .462.

Soto also has exhibited outstanding plate discipline. Among players with at least 150 plate appearances this season, Soto is first with a walk rate of 19.4 percent and fourth with a .417 on-base percentage (behind Morneau, Youkilis and Pujols).

FanGraphs has him as sixth among all MLB catchers in wins above replacement level this season.

There's just one hitch in the whole redemption story: Soto isn't getting to play much. As Dave Cameron points out in this FanGraphs post titled "Piniella Loses His Marbles," Soto has collected fewer plate appearances in the month of June than "backup" Koyie Hill. This month, Soto is hitting .364/.462/.727 in 26 PAs, compared with Hill's line of .269/.321/.346 in 28 PAs.

As Cameron explains, the justification for this is some idea of Hill's superiority on defense and in handling the pitching staff, which has no basis in the statistical record and in any case pales in comparison to Soto's offensive superiority.

It's smart managing to give your starting catcher regular rest during the 162-game grind. Just take a look at Russell Martin's career. But Piniella obviously has gone way beyond making an effort to save Soto's knees.

Here's his reasoning for having Hill in the lineup for a recent game, as relayed in a Bruce Miles blog post: “We’re going to face two left-handers tomorrow and the next day, so Soto will be there,” Lou said. “We’re going to face a couple left-handers over the weekend against the Angels. We’re just trying to win baseball games right now. Hill’s been swinging the bat OK. He does a nice job behind (the plate). Actually, both catchers have done a nice job behind the plate. But I don’t know. We can go either way with that. Tonight, Hill’s catching because we won the other night. This is basically the same lineup that played the other night. We played a good ballgame. So we’re sticking with that, not changing it.”

So in other words, Hill played because he played in another game that the Cubs won. That can't be Piniella's real line of thinking, but if it is, I don't think I need to explain how ludicrous it is.

There are so many things Lou Piniella has no control over as this season continues. To name just some: Whether Aramis Ramirez can get healthy, whether Derrek Lee can start hitting, whether Carlos Silva can continue his stunning resurrection, whether the front office is able to acquire any help, whether the Cardinals and Reds come back to the pack and what members of the media say about him.

One of the things he has absolute control over is whom he marks down on the lineup card each day next to the number 2. It will be interesting to see if he continues to botch this task.

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Opening Day provides all 30 teams and 750 players with a clean slate. This is certainly part of the romanticism that surrounds it -- everyone gets a fresh start, a rebirth, if you will.

But the other effect is that it amplifies whatever happens. Doing something particularly good or bad on Opening Day compared with in the middle of July is like the difference between doodling your name on wall that's freshly painted white and doing it on one already covered in graffiti.

Of course, what happens on Opening Day doesn't necessarily mean anything more than what happens on July 17 or September 4 or May 23 or any other day during the season. They're all just one game and to read too much into the results is to fall victim to the allure of small sample sizes.

But that can't stop us from having a little fun with the numbers.

Event: Jason Heyward crushes a huge home run in his first major league at-bat, goes 2-for-5 in debut.
Reaction: He's the Second Coming! If he keeps hitting a home run in every game, he'll break the home run record sometime around the end of the 2014 season.
Reality: About that home run -- if you haven't seen it, you should. It was absolutely crushed, as was the single Heyward picked up later in the game. It's also impressive how Heyward was able to focus enough to perform given all the hype, playing his first big league game at home and catching the first pitch from none other than Hank Aaron. That said, A LOT of players have hit home runs in their first at-bat. In the past few years, the list of guys who have done it includes Mark Saccomanno, Lou Montanez, Charlton Jimerson and fellow Braves outfield prospect Jordan Schafer. The point is, as amazing a moment as Heyward's bomb was, it's fairly meaningless in terms of his long-term outlook. It's quite likely the home run will be the opening chapter of a great career, but as we've seen time and time again, there are no guarantees.

Event: Placido Polanco hit a grand slam and drove in six runs as the Phillies predictably pummeled the Nationals.
Reaction: Polanco is now on pace for a record 972 RBI!
Reality: It certainly was a nice day for Polanco, who is what some might call "a professional hitter." Of course, all of these guys are professional hitters, so I'm not sure what that means. But I think it's getting at the fact that Polanco handles the bat well, makes contact, moves runners over and generally gives you a solid at-bat. He should do all of those things well for the Phillies, and in this lineup, he'll probably put up some good numbers, even at his age. What he almost certainly will not do is finish in even the top three or maybe four on his own team in home runs or RBIs.

Event: Zack Greinke leaves the Royals' game against the Tigers with a 4-2 lead after six innings, only to see his bullpen cough up six runs in the seventh.
Reaction: It's going to be tough for Greinke to repeat as the AL Cy Young winner if he wins zero games this season.
Reality: Well, it's not like the Royals were good last year when Greinke managed to win enough games (16) to convince the stodgy voting corps of the BBWAA to give him the award he clearly deserved. But would it be surprising if Greinke pitched brilliantly again, only to win just 10-12 games this season? No. If he can get his leads safely to closer Joakim Soria, he should be fine. But with an offense that is going to struggle to score and a group of middle relief arsonists, Greinke certainly could have grounds to sue for lack of support.

Event: Carlos Zambrano gives up eight runs in 1 1/3 innings, and the bullpen gives up eight more in the Cubs' embarrassing 16-5 loss to the Braves.
Reaction: Wait 'til next year.
Reality: Take a step away from the ledge, Cubs fans. Two years ago, the Phillies lost to the Nationals 11-6 on Opening Day, then went on to win the World Series. Now, this Chicago team doesn't necessarily compare to that Philly team, but the point stands. One bad game is just one bad game, and even if Monday felt like a continuation of the nightmarish 2009 (minus Milton Bradley), it wasn't. Most projections do have the Cubs falling short of the playoffs, and it's hard to argue that at this point. The bullpen is certainly a concern, and Zambrano might be too, to a lesser extent. But that hardly means the Cubbies will end the season where they are now -- behind the Pirates in the standings.

Event: Albert Pujols goes 4-for-5, homers twice in Cardinals' win over Reds.
Reaction: He's the best hitter in baseball!
Reality: He's the best hitter in baseball!

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2009: 83-78, 2nd in NL Central. Pythagorean record of 84-77.
Key Additions: CF Marlon Byrd, RF Xavier Nady, SP Carlos Silva
Key Losses: RF Milton Bradley, 1F/OF Jake Fox, SP Rich Harden, RP Kevin Gregg
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 80-82, 2nd in NL Central. CHONE – 79-83, 4th. CAIRO – 83.8-78.2, 3rd

Pitching: 2009 – 4.11 FIP (7th in MLB), 3.95 for starters, 4.45 for relievers
2010 – The starting pitching should be solid again, but the bullpen bears watching. Closer Carlos Marmol is electric but erratic and with Angel Guzman out for the year, the right side of the pen is very inexperienced. That's not necessarily bad but makes the unit's fortunes less predictable.
Hitting: 2009 – .323 wOBA (21st in MLB)
2010 – The offense is due for a rebound, as guys like Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto should bounce back somewhat from abysmal years. A healthy season from Aramis Ramirez would be a big help as well.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -19.8 (21st in MLB)
2010 – Byrd isn't a great center fielder, but he'll help just by pushing Kosuke Fukudome back to his much more natural right field. Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot (when he plays) make for a good combo in the middle infield.

Reasons to Watch
1. Carlos Marmol: You never know what's going to happen when Marmol enters the game. He could walk three straight hitters or strike out three straight, or even do one after the other. With Gregg gone and Guzman out, the Cubs are counting on Marmol to find the strike zone often enough to hold down leads, but you can bet it won't be a smooth ride.
2. Alfonso Soriano: To say 2009 was a rough season for Soriano but be understating things considerably. Limited to 117 games by a knee injury that also left him playing hurt a lot of the time, Sori was dreadful at the plate and in the field, culminating in a negative WAR total for the year. He's almost sure to improve considerably this time around, but will he improve enough to make his remaining contract look anything other than horrendous?
3. Carlos Silva: The Cubs had to take Silva off the Mariners' hands in order to get rid of Milton Bradley this offseason. But coming off an 8.60 ERA in eight games last season and a 6.46 mark in 28 games the year before, Silva appears to be a contender for the fifth spot in the rotation. If Silva can manage to turn his career around, it would make the Bradley dump a little more palatable.

Paint By Numbers: Of all pitchers who threw at least 50 innings last season, Marmol had the sixth-highest K/9 ratio at 11.31 but also the second-highest BB/9 ratio at 7.91. Marmol's .171 batting average against trailed only Jonathan Broxton. ... In his 2008 rookie season, Geovany Soto put up a .332 BABIP (comapred with the league average of about .300), but last season that number fell to .246, helping to explain Soto's steep decline. If Geo bounces back in 2009, many will say it's because he got in shape, but a closer to average BABIP likely will play a role as well. ... Ryan Theriot hit seven home runs in his first three big league seasons. He then hit seven in 2009, with all of them coming between May 1 and June 29. Perhaps in looking for more power, Theriot gave up some plate discipline, as his K/BB ratio dropped from a superb 1.26 in 2008 to a below-average 0.55 last season.

Blog Jog:Dave Szymborski of ESPN.com's Max Info blog projects Alfonso Soriano's 2010 performance, factoring in the impact of new hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo. ... Another Cubs Blog's mb21 takes Szymborski's work a step further by applying the "Jaramillo Effect" to the rest of the Cubs' projected regular hitters. ... ACB also takes a look at how the Cubs' bullpen is shaping up at this point in Spring Training and how that will affect the makeup of the 40-man roster. ... Brad from Cubs Stats considers the prospect of a "retooled" Carlos Silva.

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Four more days until the first pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Therefore, it seems like a good time to look ahead to four potentially interesting series on the schedule for this season.

I didn’t include matchups between division rivals here, since those are pretty obvious and provide intrigue every year.

April 12, 14-15, Red Sox @ Twins – On the 12th, outdoor baseball will return to Minneapolis for the first time since 1981, the last year of old Metropolitan Stadium. Ever since, the Twins have been safely tucked away in the ugly but warm confines of the Metrodome. Until this season, that is. Target Field is opening its doors for this prime series against the Red Sox. These two teams figure to put on a good show, as long as they’re not frozen solid. The average temperature in Minneapolis in April is a high of 57 and a low of 36, with the record low being a balmy 2 degrees. At least all three games in this series are day games, with the first night contest taking place to start the following series against the Royals. For the sake of Twins fans, let’s hope Target Field has hot chocolate dispensers in the backs of every seat.

June 22-24, Cubs @ Mariners – This interleague series is certainly interesting on its own merits. These two teams figure to be playoff contenders, and the Cubs have visited Seattle only once before, in 2002. But these three games have another storyline as well: Milton Bradley’s first appearance against his last team. Bradley’s brief tenure in Chicago ended with him getting suspended late in the season. The veteran outfielder might have gotten some undeservedly rough treatment from fans and the media – his on-field performance wasn’t as bad as many perceived – but he never fit in a clubhouse that generally got along well. Even Ryan Dempster, a first-class act, said after Bradley’s suspension, “It became one of those things where you see him putting the blame on everybody else, and sometimes you have to look in the mirror and realize that maybe the biggest part of the problem is yourself and wanting to be there and wanting to play every day and wanting to have some fun. It didn't seem like he wanted to have very much fun, even from Spring Training.” There could be some serious tension here, assuming Bradley is still on the active roster at that point.

June 25-27, Yankees @ Dodgers – This will be the Bronx Bombers’ first trip to Chavez Ravine since 2004. These are two franchise with a ton of history between them, including 11 clashes in the World Series (four since the Dodgers left Brooklyn). And this series figures to come with both squads near or at the top of their respective divisions. A lot will be made of Joe Torre managing against his old club, but what’s really more interesting is what happens on the field, and this series could feature some exciting matchups. Personally I’m eager to see LA’s 22-year-old lefty strikeout machine Clayton Kershaw test his stuff against New York’s nightmare-inducing lineup, or closer Jonathan Broxton try to finish off a close game against A-Rod. Not to mention that Manny Ramirez against the Yankees tends to be entertaining.

Sept. 17-19, Angels @ Rays – Most of the series at the very end of the season are divisional matchups, as they should be, but this is one late-season interdivisional series that could have huge playoff implications. The Rays seem to be in position to stand up to the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East again, while the Angels likely will have their supremacy in the AL West challenged by at least two division competitors. Depending on how things shake out, this could even turn into a crucial battle for a wildcard berth. Plus, you have a showdown of the minds between Mike Scioscia and former bench coach Joe Maddon, now managing Tampa, and Angels pitcher Scott Kazmir potentially squaring off against his old team for the first time.

Tomorrow: 3 teams to keep an eye on

Who should be in charge of a player’s legacy?

It seems to me it should be the player, but the Hall of Fame apparently has other ideas. The Hall has decided 2010 inductee Andre Dawson will wear a Montreal Expos hat on his plaque even though "The Hawk" said he would prefer to go in as a Chicago Cub.

Here is a key sentence from that article regarding Hall of Fame policy:

The Baseball Hall of Fame said it considers the wishes of an inductee but that the choice of the logo on each plaque must be emblematic of where the player made his greatest impact.

Despite its stated intentions, the Hall must not be all that concerned with what the player wants. Because in terms of impact, this does not seem like a clear-cut decision at all.

True, Dawson played 11 years for the since-deceased Expos and only six for the Cubbies. Naturally, his counting stats are bigger with Montreal (225 home runs vs. 174, for example). He didn't move to the Cubs until he was 32, so with Montreal he was a much better all-around player in terms of speed and defense. And while his rate stats are a little better with Chicago (125 OPS+ vs. 122), it's not a huge gap.

Dawson won an MVP award with the Cubs but finished second twice with the Expos, and he made one postseason appearance with each team.

So there is certainly a good argument to be made for Dawson going in as a member of the Expos. But is it such an obvious choice that The Hawk shouldn’t have gotten to cast a deciding vote? I think not.

Normally I am all in favor of evaluating baseball and making decisions -- such as for post-season awards -- on the basis of advanced statistical analysis. But when it comes to the cap a guy wears on his plaque, I don't think we need to be quite so interested in being 100 percent "correct." It should be more about the comfort of the individual being honored. After all, this is what they will be wearing for eternity.

It’s understandable why the Hall doesn’t put the decision totally in the hands of the player. Otherwise, we might have Wade Boggs in there as a Tampa Bay (Devil) Ray. On the other hand, a player should have the ability to dictate how he will be remembered, within reason.

Most players are tied to an obvious team that any reasonable person could agree about. Yet if a player accomplished a little more with Team A but feels a deeper connection with Team B, why shouldn't Team B's hat be the one on the plaque?

The Hall needs to set aside its collective ego and put the players’ legacies back in the hands that earned the players those legacies to begin with.