Hitting The Cutoff Man

When I got the chance to cover the Cubs during the second half of last season, one of the many hot topics swirling around regarded the disappointing sophomore campaign of 2008 NL Rookie of the Year catcher Geovany Soto.

Fans and media had all sorts of theories for Soto's awful performance at the plate and injuries. They blamed his participation in the World Baseball Classic and said he spent the off-season eating too many Oreos and/or smoking too much pot, rather than getting in shape. No doubt these ideas probably had some degree of merit to them, but at the same time, Soto also was a victim of a pretty astonishing swing of luck.

To recap this succinctly: We can generally expect hitters to put up around a .300 average on balls in play (BABIP). In '08, Soto's BABIP was .332, but in '09, it dropped to .246. He did hit the ball with less authority, resulting in a drop in his line drive rate, but the move from really good luck to really bad luck clearly played a major role.

This season has played out as Soto's redemption story. He supposedly worked hard during the off-season and dropped 40 pounds. His BABIP is back up to .327, but he also has an excellent line drive rate of 24.1 percent, showing how he's been hitting the ball hard. He's hit seven home runs and slugged .462.

Soto also has exhibited outstanding plate discipline. Among players with at least 150 plate appearances this season, Soto is first with a walk rate of 19.4 percent and fourth with a .417 on-base percentage (behind Morneau, Youkilis and Pujols).

FanGraphs has him as sixth among all MLB catchers in wins above replacement level this season.

There's just one hitch in the whole redemption story: Soto isn't getting to play much. As Dave Cameron points out in this FanGraphs post titled "Piniella Loses His Marbles," Soto has collected fewer plate appearances in the month of June than "backup" Koyie Hill. This month, Soto is hitting .364/.462/.727 in 26 PAs, compared with Hill's line of .269/.321/.346 in 28 PAs.

As Cameron explains, the justification for this is some idea of Hill's superiority on defense and in handling the pitching staff, which has no basis in the statistical record and in any case pales in comparison to Soto's offensive superiority.

It's smart managing to give your starting catcher regular rest during the 162-game grind. Just take a look at Russell Martin's career. But Piniella obviously has gone way beyond making an effort to save Soto's knees.

Here's his reasoning for having Hill in the lineup for a recent game, as relayed in a Bruce Miles blog post: “We’re going to face two left-handers tomorrow and the next day, so Soto will be there,” Lou said. “We’re going to face a couple left-handers over the weekend against the Angels. We’re just trying to win baseball games right now. Hill’s been swinging the bat OK. He does a nice job behind (the plate). Actually, both catchers have done a nice job behind the plate. But I don’t know. We can go either way with that. Tonight, Hill’s catching because we won the other night. This is basically the same lineup that played the other night. We played a good ballgame. So we’re sticking with that, not changing it.”

So in other words, Hill played because he played in another game that the Cubs won. That can't be Piniella's real line of thinking, but if it is, I don't think I need to explain how ludicrous it is.

There are so many things Lou Piniella has no control over as this season continues. To name just some: Whether Aramis Ramirez can get healthy, whether Derrek Lee can start hitting, whether Carlos Silva can continue his stunning resurrection, whether the front office is able to acquire any help, whether the Cardinals and Reds come back to the pack and what members of the media say about him.

One of the things he has absolute control over is whom he marks down on the lineup card each day next to the number 2. It will be interesting to see if he continues to botch this task.

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2009: 83-78, 2nd in NL Central. Pythagorean record of 84-77.
Key Additions: CF Marlon Byrd, RF Xavier Nady, SP Carlos Silva
Key Losses: RF Milton Bradley, 1F/OF Jake Fox, SP Rich Harden, RP Kevin Gregg
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 80-82, 2nd in NL Central. CHONE – 79-83, 4th. CAIRO – 83.8-78.2, 3rd

Pitching: 2009 – 4.11 FIP (7th in MLB), 3.95 for starters, 4.45 for relievers
2010 – The starting pitching should be solid again, but the bullpen bears watching. Closer Carlos Marmol is electric but erratic and with Angel Guzman out for the year, the right side of the pen is very inexperienced. That's not necessarily bad but makes the unit's fortunes less predictable.
Hitting: 2009 – .323 wOBA (21st in MLB)
2010 – The offense is due for a rebound, as guys like Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto should bounce back somewhat from abysmal years. A healthy season from Aramis Ramirez would be a big help as well.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -19.8 (21st in MLB)
2010 – Byrd isn't a great center fielder, but he'll help just by pushing Kosuke Fukudome back to his much more natural right field. Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot (when he plays) make for a good combo in the middle infield.

Reasons to Watch
1. Carlos Marmol: You never know what's going to happen when Marmol enters the game. He could walk three straight hitters or strike out three straight, or even do one after the other. With Gregg gone and Guzman out, the Cubs are counting on Marmol to find the strike zone often enough to hold down leads, but you can bet it won't be a smooth ride.
2. Alfonso Soriano: To say 2009 was a rough season for Soriano but be understating things considerably. Limited to 117 games by a knee injury that also left him playing hurt a lot of the time, Sori was dreadful at the plate and in the field, culminating in a negative WAR total for the year. He's almost sure to improve considerably this time around, but will he improve enough to make his remaining contract look anything other than horrendous?
3. Carlos Silva: The Cubs had to take Silva off the Mariners' hands in order to get rid of Milton Bradley this offseason. But coming off an 8.60 ERA in eight games last season and a 6.46 mark in 28 games the year before, Silva appears to be a contender for the fifth spot in the rotation. If Silva can manage to turn his career around, it would make the Bradley dump a little more palatable.

Paint By Numbers: Of all pitchers who threw at least 50 innings last season, Marmol had the sixth-highest K/9 ratio at 11.31 but also the second-highest BB/9 ratio at 7.91. Marmol's .171 batting average against trailed only Jonathan Broxton. ... In his 2008 rookie season, Geovany Soto put up a .332 BABIP (comapred with the league average of about .300), but last season that number fell to .246, helping to explain Soto's steep decline. If Geo bounces back in 2009, many will say it's because he got in shape, but a closer to average BABIP likely will play a role as well. ... Ryan Theriot hit seven home runs in his first three big league seasons. He then hit seven in 2009, with all of them coming between May 1 and June 29. Perhaps in looking for more power, Theriot gave up some plate discipline, as his K/BB ratio dropped from a superb 1.26 in 2008 to a below-average 0.55 last season.

Blog Jog:Dave Szymborski of ESPN.com's Max Info blog projects Alfonso Soriano's 2010 performance, factoring in the impact of new hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo. ... Another Cubs Blog's mb21 takes Szymborski's work a step further by applying the "Jaramillo Effect" to the rest of the Cubs' projected regular hitters. ... ACB also takes a look at how the Cubs' bullpen is shaping up at this point in Spring Training and how that will affect the makeup of the 40-man roster. ... Brad from Cubs Stats considers the prospect of a "retooled" Carlos Silva.

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Anyone not living under a rock the past couple of years has the words "hope" and "change" imprinted on their brains.

But inspiring throngs of ardent supporters with visions of a better tomorrow is not the sole domain of people running for our nation's highest office (or any public office).

Baseball players employ this tactic as well as anyone, and Spring Training is the frantic climax of their campaign to win the hearts and minds of their teammates, coaches and fans, not to mention gullible fantasy baseball owners. It's truly amazing how everyone comes to camp in "the best shape of their life," or with a new batting stance, a new pitch, a new type of workout or with a personal chef in tow who is totally going to revolutionize this guy's diet.

I suppose it's human nature to look for reasons why this year will be better, whether you're the one doing the telling or the believing. And there's really not much harm in it, unless you're a decision-maker (real or fantasy) who's going to put more stock in someone's predicted re-birth than in the statistical evidence at hand.

I don't have the time, energy or means to look back at past claims of turning over new leaves to see how many actually resulted in some sort of sustained improvement. But let's put it this way: If every claim someone made in Spring Training turned out to be legitimate, MLB would have to bring back the long defunct second All-Star Game.

So without further adieu, let's take a quick look at just a few of the hopeful tales we've been told so far in Spring Training.

Who: Geovany Soto, C, Cubs
Change: 40 pounds lighter!
Hope: A more svelte Soto will return to the form he showed in 2008, when he won the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Comment: Soto likely will improve upon his dreadful 2009, but it will probably have more to do with his batting average on balls in play returning to a normal range.

Who: David Wright, 3B, Mets
Change: One ticket to the gun show!
Hope: More muscle will mean a return to the home run numbers of years past.
Comment: Maybe Wright feels he needs the extra juice to clear the fences at Citi Field, but his power numbers were likely to move back toward his career averages anyways.

Who: Delmon Young, OF, Twins
Change: A new man, in body and mind!
Hope: A good attitude and a tighter waistline will help this once-top prospect get back on track.
Comment: A slimmer frame probably could help Young in the outfield, where he's been dreadful defensively the past two years.

Who: Kyle Farnsworth, P, Royals
Change: He's a starter -- with a new pitch!
Hope: A new changeup will help this inconsistent reliever blossom in the rotation.
Comment: Because what the Royals need is MORE innings from Kyle Farnsworth. But hey, it's worth a try.

Who: Gerald Laird, C, Tigers
Change: A new stance!
Hope: Resting his bat on his shoulder before the pitch will help him raise last season's .225 average.
Comment: A new stance on public brawling would be good too.

First off, sorry for the long delay between posts. I’ve taken a new job that involved moving across the country, and things got a little hectic on me.

But now I’m operational again, and it’s coming at the perfect time, as pitchers and catchers start reporting to Spring Training Feb. 17 (although some teams wait until the 21st). To mark the occasion, I’ll be posting a different list looking ahead at the new season every day between now and when the first camps open.

Since there are six days left until Feb. 17, today's list is "6 Most Interesting Off-Season Moves." These aren't necessarily the biggest or most important moves, just the ones that caught my attention the most.

Phillies acquire Roy Halladay from Blue Jays and deal Cliff Lee to the Mariners
This was the biggest deal of the offseason and also the most interesting because of the Phillies' decision to swap aces. Philly could have gotten Halladay and still kept Lee, but apparently felt that would have left their farm system in bad shape. Still, the prospects they gave up for Halladay are more highly regarded than those they picked up for Lee, and you have to wonder whether the difference between the two pitchers is big enough to make it all worthwhile. The Phillies still look like serious World Series contenders this season, but this pair of trades was a little puzzling.

Red Sox sign Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre
Neither Cameron nor Beltre has a particularly bigtime reputation, and they're both low batting average hitters. But both players are productive at the plate and superb with the glove -- Cameron in center field and Beltre at third base. These signings indicate Boston's newfound dedication to run prevention, something the organization shares with other cutting-edge teams like the Mariners and A's. Beltre and Cameron figure to be difference-makers in what could be a very tight AL East race.

Cardinals name Mark McGwire hitting coach; Cubs name Rudy Jaramillo hitting coach
Putting aside the hubub of McGwire's PED admission, his hiring and that of Jaramillo are interesting as they relate to the issue of a batting coach's real impact on a team. The importance of these coaches at the big league level tends to be overstated in my opinion, making them easy scapegoats during tough times. But it will be fascinating to see how these two guys do. The Cubs' offense is poised for a rebound regardless of coaching, as it's hard to believe players like Geovany Soto and Alfonso Soriano will be as bad as they were last season, but Jaramillo has a sterling reputation and could provide an extra boost. McGwire has gotten glowing reviews from players who have worked with him privately and might make a difference for Cardinals hitters not named Albert Pujols.

Royals sign Jason Kendall to a two-year contract
The Royals have made a litany of baffling moves recently, but this signing stands out. How does a team that figures to be nowhere near a playoff race justify not only signing the aging Kendall, but to a two-year deal? Of course, the easy answer is some mythical combination of "veteran leadership" and "grit," but the fact is that Kendall hasn't managed an OBP above .331 or a slugging percentage above .324 the past three seasons. In other words, he's an offensive liability, even for a catcher. The Royals could have signed someone younger and cheaper to do just as poorly, but if they did that, they wouldn't be the Royals.

A's sign Ben Sheets
Sheets missed all of last season after having elbow surgery and has started 25 or more games only once since 2004. But the small-market A's, looking to compete in what figures to be a rough-and-tumble AL West, outbid the competition for his services, inking Sheets to a one-year deal worth $10 million plus incentives. Will Sheets help keep Oakland in the playoff race, or at least stay healthy long enough to get flipped for prospects at the trade deadline? That remains to be seen.

Cubs trade Milton Bradley to Mariners for Carlos Silva
This was one of those classic "our problem for your problem" deals. Bradley had worn out his welcome in Chicago, to put it mildly, having been suspended from the team late in the season. Silva was making a lot of money and pitching terribly in Seattle. Basically this trade boiled down to the Cubs taking on the final two years of Silva's horrid deal in exchange for getting rid of Bradley plus acquiring some cash, which went toward signing Marlon Byrd. But while Bradley's situation in Chicago probably was untenable, he figures to produce a lot more than Silva this season and could be a real asset to the M's.

Tomorrow: 5 Intriguing Players to Watch in '10