Hitting The Cutoff Man

The baseball season is a month old now, and it's been a crazy season already to say the least.

We've got Paul Konerko leading the majors in home runs by a margin of three, and Kelly Johnson tied for the NL lead. Tigers rookie Austin Jackson is second in the AL with a .376 batting average (aided by a mind-boggling .524 BABIP), while Cardinals rookie David Freese is atop the NL with a .360 mark. Andre Ethier is close to a triple crown, sitting first in the NL in RBI, tied for first in home runs and just behind Freese in average. Meanwhile, someone named Doug Fister is leading the AL in ERA while the ancient Livan Hernandez and rookie Jaime Garcia are second and third in the NL. We've already seen a no-hitter and a three-homer game (from John Buck).

Of course, it's still very early and by the end of the season, most of these facts will be nothing more than distant memories -- if they're remembered at all.

On the occasion of Cinco De Mayo, here are five stories I'll be watching intently as the month progresses.

1. Rookie Revolution -- As mentioned, guys like Jackson, Freese and Garcia are tearing up the league, along with phenom Jason Heyward. Jackson in particular seems likely to come crashing down to Earth, thanks to his ridiculously unsustainable BABIP and hacktastic approach, and the two Cardinals are almost certainly playing over their heads as well -- not to say they aren't good players. Heyward looks as good as the hype though, having shown patience, the willingness to hit the ball the other way, the ability to make adjustments to the adjustments pitchers make to him and a coolness and maturity under pressure. And don't forget, we haven't even seen perhaps the best rookie of all yet. That would be Stephen Strasburg, who was just promoted to Triple-A by the Nats and figures to be in the big leagues by sometime in June. It's always exciting to see young players break through, so this season is a real treat.

2. The Fabulous Rays -- I think it's safe to say that everyone outside of New York, Boston and Bristol, Conn., would like to see the low-budget Rays win the AL East this season. So far, so good. Tampa has the best record in baseball at 19-7, leading the AL in both runs scored and ERA. This team is young, very talented and extremely fun to watch, playing a much more visually appealing brand of baseball than their division counterparts. And for what it's worth, they know they can do it, having made the World Series two years ago.

3. The AL Wild West -- This certainly isn't baseball's best division, but it might be it's most fascinating, and it certainly could turn into the closest pennant race. With one month in the books, all four teams are within 2 1/2 games, although Texas at 14-13 is the only one over .500. In fact, if anyone runs away with the division, it will be the Rangers, who have gotten a nice pitching boost from Japan returnee Colby Lewis and converted reliever C.J. Wilson. Meanwhile, the depleted Angels have the second-worst run differential in the AL, and the Mariners -- a hot pre-season pick -- simply cannot hit the ball enough to win games so far. Only the Astros have scored fewer runs this season, and the whole team is hitting .235/.309/.327. That's worse than Adam Everett's career numbers.

4. Zack's Lack (Of Support) -- The good news about Zack Greinke's 2010 season is that it's another step toward convincing people to do away with the win as a good measurement of a pitcher's value. That's probably not much consolation to Greinke, however. The 2009 AL Cy Young winner has started six games this season, pitched 39 2/3 innings with a 33 to 7 K/BB ratio, a 2.27 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. In other words, he's been excellent, if not quite up to last season's outrageous start. Despite holding the opposition to two earned runs or less in five of his six starts, he is 0-3 with three no-decisions, two of which ended up as Royals defeats. Before Greinke's last start, when he held the hot-hitting Rays to one run in eight innings in a game the Royals lost 3-0, Joe Posnanski wrote about "The Agony of Being Greinke." The big stat: Since Aug. 16, 2008, Greinke had a 2.11 ERA in 46 starts, and the Royals went 22-24 in those games.

5. Zombies in the Outfield -- Before the season started, it was widely assumed that Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano were pretty much finished as impact players and hence had probably the two worst contracts in baseball. And frankly, nobody was really saying anything at all about Andruw Jones, who hadn't been good in about four years. Well, all three former star outfielders appear to be back from the dead. Jones, Soriano and Wells are 6th, 10th and 15th in MLB in wOBA among players with at least 80 plate appearances so far, and they've combined for 23 home runs. To put the redemption another way: Last season the three combined to be worth one win above replacement. In one month in 2010, they're already at 3.7.

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Although I've been wrapped up in baseball season for almost a month now, it never quite feels like baseball season until I actually get out to a game. Unfortunately, for the first time in my life I'm not living anywhere near a major league stadium, but on Saturday I made the roughly four-hour trek down to Atlanta for the Braves-Astros game.

Here are some thoughts from my first game of the season and my first experience at Turner Field, a 10-1 win by the Braves.

-- I've now been to 14 active MLB stadiums (and three defunct ones). Although Turner Field certainly wouldn't be at the top of my list -- that's reserved for Fenway, Wrigley, Dodger Stadium, Camden Yards and whatever they're calling the place the Giants play -- I thought it was a very pleasant place to watch a game. My only real complaints were the huge Cartoon Network attraction behind center field that made you wonder if you were at a baseball stadium or an amusement park and the annoying sound effects they played on foul balls into the stands. Oh, and that damn Tomahawk Chop. No offense to the Braves fans out there, but I hate that thing.

-- I still have 16 stadiums I haven't visited yet. Places at the top of my list: Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Kansas City.

-- The highlight of the game for me was Jason Heyward stroking a home run to left-center field. Just a thing of beauty. If you're a fan of the game, no matter what team you root for, you have to just love what this kid is doing. The fact that he is two years younger than me is really giving me some psychological problems, though.

In a related note, I was amazed at how many Heyward jerseys I saw at Turner Field. The guy was playing in his 23rd big league game, and already there were as many of his jerseys as there of Chipper Jones, a guy who's played in Atlanta for 15 years and been the face of the franchise.

-- They have slipped back under the radar since righting the ship after their 0-8 start, but good lord, the Astros are just a terrible baseball team. You can start with the fact that Pedro Feliz, a guy with a career .713 OPS was batting third for them (and yes, the No. 3 spot has been shown to not be as important as many believe, but is that really what Brad Mills was thinking?) They got six hits in the game, none for extra bases. They got thrown out stealing twice, including once when Michael Bourn only got halfway to second when Jeff Keppinger didn't swing the bat on a hit and run play. Their Nos. 3-6 hitters, none of whom are batting above .250, went a combined 1-for-12. They committed two errors in the fifth inning as Atlanta scored three to take a 5-1 lead. It was just one game, sure, but it was a truly ugly performance that certainly couldn't be considered an anomaly.

-- It was nice to see Tim Hudson pitching well, even if he didn't really have command early in the game. It's been kind of a bizarre road for Oakland's old "Big 3" of Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder. Mulder is done and has been for a while, but it appears Hudson and Zito might be back on the right track after a period of injuries and ineffectiveness.

-- Are we coming to the end of the line for Chipper Jones? He's said he'll retire at the end of this season if he doesn't improve on his 2009, and so far, he hasn't. The problem might be bad-luck fueled, and ZiPS still projects him to finish the year with a .377 wOBA, but it's clear the injuries and age have taken their toll. If this is Larry's final season, I think he's clearly done enough to get to Cooperstown as one of the best offensive third basemen and one of the best switch hitters of all time.

-- David Ross had a good game in this one, filling in at catcher for Brian McCann. He also manged to drive in a run without hitting a homer, which is a relatively rare feat for him. I've always sort of liked Ross since he played for the Dodgers early in his career and had a season in 2003 when he managed to hit 10 home runs with only 18 RBI. That tied him with Wayne Gross of the 1985 Orioles for fewest RBI in a season with 10 or more home runs, although Toronto's Randy Ruiz broke that record last season when he drove in 17 runs on 10 homers. Ross also had back-to-back seasons with Cincinnati in 2006-07 when he drove in a total of 91 runs while hitting 38 long balls.

For the record, Ross currently has 67 career home runs and 178 RBI. Nobody else with that many career homers has fewer than 200 RBI. It's sort of a bizarre record.

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Last night I watched as the Braves' Jason Heyward smacked a home run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie the game against the Phillies. A couple of days before, I watched as Heyward -- with two outs and two strikes and the Braves trailing by one -- hit an opposite-field single against a left-handed pitcher to score two and win the game.

It's getting awfully difficult to keep the Heyward Hype Machine from overheating.

The thing about Heyward is -- if he does turn out to be a great player, it will surprise nobody. He's been a big-time prospect for a long while, and this year was Baseball America's No. 1 prospect, a spot ahead of fellow phenom Stephen Strasburg.

That brought this thought to mind: What kind of prospects go on to be most successful? I'll leave a more serious study of the subject to someone else, but what I decided to do was take Baseball America's annual top 100 prospects lists (which go back to 1990) and divide them into top 10 players, top 100 players and unranked players.

Then I created a team out of each group. Each player is listed with the highest ranking they achieved on the list, as many were on there in multiple seasons.

     Team 'Top Ten'               Team 'Top 100'               Team 'Unranked'
C    Joe Mauer ('04-'05, #1)      Brian McCann ('05, #44)      Yadier Molina

1B   Mark Teixeira ('03, #1)      Albert Pujols ('01, #42)     Pablo Sandoval

2B   Brandon Phillips ('03, #7)   Chase Utley ('03, #81)       Ben Zobrist

3B   Alex Rodriguez ('95, #1)     Ryan Zimmerman ('06, #15)    Kevin Youkilis

SS   Hanley Ramirez ('05, #10)    Troy Tulowitzki ('07, #15)   Yunel Escobar

LF   Justin Upton ('07, #9)       Carl Crawford ('02, #59)     Matt Holliday

CF   Grady Sizemore ('04, #9)     Matt Kemp ('06, #96)         Denard Span

RF   Ichiro Suzuki ('01, #9)      Ryan Braun ('07, #26)        Nelson Cruz

DH   Prince Fielder ('04, #10)    Miguel Cabrera ('03, #12)    Mark Reynolds



C    Matt Wieters ('09, #1)       Victor Martinez ('03, #16)   Jorge Posada

MI   Derek Jeter ('95, #4)        Ian Kinsler ('05, #98)       Chone Figgins

CI   Evan Longoria ('08, #2)      Adrian Gonzalez ('03, #31)   Jorge Cantu

OF   Jason Heyward ('10, #1)      Shin-Soo Choo ('05, #51)     Michael Bourn

OF   B.J. Upton ('04, #2)         Jayson Werth ('00, #48)      Shane Victorino



SP   Felix Hernandez ('05, #2)    Tim Lincecum ('07, #11)      Dan Haren

SP   Justin Verlander ('06, #8)   Roy Halladay ('99, #12)      John Lackey

SP   CC Sabathia ('01, #7)        Zack Greinke ('04, #14)      Ricky Nolasco

SP   Josh Beckett ('02, #1)       Chris Carpenter ('97, #28)   Brandon Webb

SP   Tommy Hanson ('09, #4)       Adam Wainwright ('03, #18)   James Shields

SP   Clayton Kershaw ('08, #7)    Cliff Lee ('03, #30)         Scott Baker

SP   Matt Cain ('06, #10)         Josh Johnson ('06, #80)      Wandy Rodriguez

SP   Brett Anderson ('09, #7)     Ubaldo Jimenez ('05, #82)    Ryan Dempster

SP   Chad Billingsley ('06, #7)   Javier Vazquez ('98, #83)    Jorge de la Rosa



SU   Neftali Feliz ('10, #9)      Jonathan Papelbon ('06, #37) Joe Nathan

CL   Fran. Rodriguez ('03, #10)   Jonathan Broxton ('06, #63)  Mariano Rivera

I only included a couple of relievers because there aren't a whole lot of top prospects that become elite relievers.

Anyways, I think you can see a couple of things here. First, while Team 'Unranked' is quite good, there is a noticeable gap between it and the other two teams. So although we can safely say that Baseball America misses some good players, it does a pretty good job of identifying the best of the best.

That said, I think it's difficult to see much of a difference between Team 'Top 10' and Team 'Top 100.' Of course, the latter is pulling from a pool of players that is nine times deeper. In any case, the lesson is this: As great as Heyward, Strasburg and this year's other elite prospects might be, they're hardly the be-all and end-all.

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Opening Day provides all 30 teams and 750 players with a clean slate. This is certainly part of the romanticism that surrounds it -- everyone gets a fresh start, a rebirth, if you will.

But the other effect is that it amplifies whatever happens. Doing something particularly good or bad on Opening Day compared with in the middle of July is like the difference between doodling your name on wall that's freshly painted white and doing it on one already covered in graffiti.

Of course, what happens on Opening Day doesn't necessarily mean anything more than what happens on July 17 or September 4 or May 23 or any other day during the season. They're all just one game and to read too much into the results is to fall victim to the allure of small sample sizes.

But that can't stop us from having a little fun with the numbers.

Event: Jason Heyward crushes a huge home run in his first major league at-bat, goes 2-for-5 in debut.
Reaction: He's the Second Coming! If he keeps hitting a home run in every game, he'll break the home run record sometime around the end of the 2014 season.
Reality: About that home run -- if you haven't seen it, you should. It was absolutely crushed, as was the single Heyward picked up later in the game. It's also impressive how Heyward was able to focus enough to perform given all the hype, playing his first big league game at home and catching the first pitch from none other than Hank Aaron. That said, A LOT of players have hit home runs in their first at-bat. In the past few years, the list of guys who have done it includes Mark Saccomanno, Lou Montanez, Charlton Jimerson and fellow Braves outfield prospect Jordan Schafer. The point is, as amazing a moment as Heyward's bomb was, it's fairly meaningless in terms of his long-term outlook. It's quite likely the home run will be the opening chapter of a great career, but as we've seen time and time again, there are no guarantees.

Event: Placido Polanco hit a grand slam and drove in six runs as the Phillies predictably pummeled the Nationals.
Reaction: Polanco is now on pace for a record 972 RBI!
Reality: It certainly was a nice day for Polanco, who is what some might call "a professional hitter." Of course, all of these guys are professional hitters, so I'm not sure what that means. But I think it's getting at the fact that Polanco handles the bat well, makes contact, moves runners over and generally gives you a solid at-bat. He should do all of those things well for the Phillies, and in this lineup, he'll probably put up some good numbers, even at his age. What he almost certainly will not do is finish in even the top three or maybe four on his own team in home runs or RBIs.

Event: Zack Greinke leaves the Royals' game against the Tigers with a 4-2 lead after six innings, only to see his bullpen cough up six runs in the seventh.
Reaction: It's going to be tough for Greinke to repeat as the AL Cy Young winner if he wins zero games this season.
Reality: Well, it's not like the Royals were good last year when Greinke managed to win enough games (16) to convince the stodgy voting corps of the BBWAA to give him the award he clearly deserved. But would it be surprising if Greinke pitched brilliantly again, only to win just 10-12 games this season? No. If he can get his leads safely to closer Joakim Soria, he should be fine. But with an offense that is going to struggle to score and a group of middle relief arsonists, Greinke certainly could have grounds to sue for lack of support.

Event: Carlos Zambrano gives up eight runs in 1 1/3 innings, and the bullpen gives up eight more in the Cubs' embarrassing 16-5 loss to the Braves.
Reaction: Wait 'til next year.
Reality: Take a step away from the ledge, Cubs fans. Two years ago, the Phillies lost to the Nationals 11-6 on Opening Day, then went on to win the World Series. Now, this Chicago team doesn't necessarily compare to that Philly team, but the point stands. One bad game is just one bad game, and even if Monday felt like a continuation of the nightmarish 2009 (minus Milton Bradley), it wasn't. Most projections do have the Cubs falling short of the playoffs, and it's hard to argue that at this point. The bullpen is certainly a concern, and Zambrano might be too, to a lesser extent. But that hardly means the Cubbies will end the season where they are now -- behind the Pirates in the standings.

Event: Albert Pujols goes 4-for-5, homers twice in Cardinals' win over Reds.
Reaction: He's the best hitter in baseball!
Reality: He's the best hitter in baseball!

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2009: 86-76, 3rd in NL East, Pythagorean record of 91-71.
Key Additions: 1B Troy Glaus, LF Melky Cabrera, RPs Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito
Key Losses: SP Javier Vazquez, RP Rafael Soriano, 1B Adam LaRoche, 2B Kelly Johnson
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 86-76, 2nd in NL East (Wild Card), CHONE – 89-73, 1st in NL East, CAIRO – 84.5-77.5, 2nd in NL East

Pitching: 2009 – FIP of 3.66 (1st in MLB), 3.68 for starters, 3.62 for relievers
2010 – The Braves subtracted Javier Vazquez (traded) but added Tim Hudson (recovered from surgery) and figure to get a full season from youngster Tommy Hanson. Free agent signee Billy Wagner can still get it done as a closer, as long as he stays healthy.
Hitting: 2009 – wOBA of .326 (16th in MLB)
2010 – Getting rid of dead weight in Garret Anderson will help, but is Troy Glaus really the answer at first base? Help from uber-prospect Jason Heyward would provide a much-needed boost.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -18.8 (20th in MLB)
2010 – Melky Cabrera is a big upgrade over Anderson in left field. Glaus has played just 38 career innings at first, but moving there from third isn’t usually too strenuous an adjustment.

Reasons to Watch
1. Jason Heyward: As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, history is against a 21-year-old coming up and hitting like a superstar right away. Even most of the great ones struggle some when they’re that young. But for what it’s worth he’s been hot in Spring Training. It will be interesting to see what kind of an opportunity he gets early this season and what he’s able to do with it.
2. Chipper Jones: Could it really be his last season? Jones hasn’t backed off remarks he made after last season saying he would retire if he didn’t improve in 2010. It seems unlikely he would follow through on that, but make sure to appreciate “Larry” this year, just in case.
3. Eric Hinske: Anyone who is willing to spend $5,000 to do this to their own body is worth watching in my book.

Paint By Numbers: Reliver Peter Moylan was the only pitcher in either league last year to pitch more than 50 innings without surrendering a home run. A right-handed sidearmer from Australia, Moylan also put up the fourth-highest ground ball percentage. … Jair Jurrjens had a fantastic 2009, putting up a 2.60 ERA, about a run lower than his 2008 mark. But a .273 BABIP and 3.68 FIP, compared with .311 and 3.59 the previous season, suggest Jurrjens’ great step forward wasn’t as huge as it appeared. … On the other hand, hitters put up a .330 BABIP against Derek Lowe, the fifth-highest mark against any qualified pitcher and much higher than Lowe’s career mark. That luck figures to turn around somewhat.

Blog Jog: Capital Avenue Club explains why Chipper Jones is wrong and the Braves should leave Jason Heyward down on the farm, at least for a couple of weeks. ... CB Wilkins of Talking Chop files this report from Braves minor league camp. ... Atlanta Journal-Constitution beat writer David O’Brien says Tim Hudson was encouraged by his stuff in his last spring start. ... R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs muses on Atlanta’s dependence on injury-prone players and Bobby Cox’s final season as manager.

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Baseball players, particularly ones who have not yet played a Major League game, are often built up to mythic proportions.

It's often said that people fear the unknown, but baseball fans in particular also take the unknown, wrap it in hyperbole and set themselves up for disappointment. Speaking partly from personal experience, I can attest to the fact that fringe prospects can become franchise saviors in a fan's mind.

But what is going on right now with Braves 20-year-old outfield prospect Jason Heyward is something else entirely. Heyward was a first-round pick in 2007, and going into last season, Baseball America rated him the game's No. 5 prospect. Then the 6-foot-4, 220-pound lefty went out and hit .323/.408/.555 at three minor league levels.

Expected to compete for a big league roster spot in Spring Training, Heyward is denting cars in the parking lot of the Braves' facility with his mammoth batting practice shots and drawing comparisons to Hank Aaron.

And so, the myth gains steam.

But is the man equal to the myth, or even in the neighborhood? Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wonders if expectations are too high for the rookie, although he finds Heyward possesses an uncommon maturity that so far has left him unfazed by the attention he's getting.

Still, it's worth wondering, what is a reasonable expectation for Heyward this season?

FanGraphs lists two projections for Heyward, from Bill James and CHONE, and they vary pretty significantly. The James system sees a line of .303/.371/.465, compared with CHONE's much more conservative .258/.324/.416.

Of course, you have to take those numbers with a grain of salt, especially with a rookie whose amount of playing time has not yet been decided.

So I thought it might be informative to look at some other prospects who came up around the same age, and see what they were able to do at the plate as rookies.

Ken Griffey, Jr., 1989, 19 years old -- .264/.329/.420 in 455 AB

Alex Rodriguez, 1994, 19 years old -- .204/.241/.204 in 54 AB.
1995, 20 years old -- .232/.264/.408 in 142 AB.

Andruw Jones, 1996, 19 years old -- .217/.265/.443 in 106 AB
1997, 20 years old -- .231/.329/.416 in 399 AB

Justin Upton, 2007, 20 years old -- .221/.283/.364 in 140 AB

Albert Pujols, 2001, 21 years old -- .329/.403/.610 in 590 AB

That's just a sampling, but it gives you an idea of what Heyward is up against.

He could, as some seem to expect, be another rookie Pujols. It's more likely that he will spend some time in the minors this year and struggle a bit in The Show. That's just how it works -- most of the time.

Then again, there are exceptions, which is what feeds to mythology in the first place. And that's part of what makes baseball great.