Hitting The Cutoff Man

This is what I wrote back in February about the Royals' signing of catcher Jason Kendall this offseason:

"The Royals have made a litany of baffling moves recently, but this signing stands out. How does a team that figures to be nowhere near a playoff race justify not only signing the aging Kendall, but to a two-year deal? Of course, the easy answer is some mythical combination of "veteran leadership" and "grit," but the fact is that Kendall hasn't managed an OBP above .331 or a slugging percentage above .324 the past three seasons. In other words, he's an offensive liability, even for a catcher. The Royals could have signed someone younger and cheaper to do just as poorly, but if they did that, they wouldn't be the Royals."

And Kendall is sporting a .269/.331/.316 batting line this season. (John Buck, whom the Royals let walk this offseason, is hitting .285/.315/.518 for the Blue Jays). This is not a surprise, obviously. What is shocking, however, is how the Royals insist on playing him every single day.

This was brought to my attention through Joe Posnanski's latest "Diary of a Losing Team" post, in which he notes that Kendall amazingly is on pace to average 155 starts at catcher this season. That would make Kendall the first catcher to start that many games in more than 40 years. (Backup Brayan Pena actually started Wednesday's game against Toronto and went 3-for-4 with a double).

Posnanski also points out that Kendall hasn't hit a home run or a triple this year, putting him on pace to snap the major league record for plate appearances in a season without one or the other.

This inspired me to do a little digging, with the thought of exploring Kendall's complete lack of power. Of course, Kendall isn't the only everyday player without any power, but he isn't the usual type (a speed guy, like Juan Pierre).

The last time Kendall slugged .400 or better was 2003. Since 2004, Kendall has played 950 games, and in 781 of them (768 as a catcher), failed to collect an extra-base hit. That's by far the most such games for a catcher in that span, with A.J. Pierzynski second with 617.

It's not the most for any player, though. Here's that list:
1. Pierre, 823
2. Ichiro, 811
3. Kendall, 781
4. Orlando Cabrera, 748
5. Chone Figgins, 742
6. Derek Jeter, 716
7. Luis Castillo, 707
8. Brandon Inge, 702
9. Bobby Abreu, 699
10. Pedro Feliz, 697

Besides Kendall, who lost his early-career speed a long time ago, the top seven guys on that list are all pretty fast, making the lack of extra-base power less jarring. So what happens if speed is removed from the equation? Here's a new version of the list, but this time in terms of games not only with no extra-base hits, but also with no stolen bases:
1. Kendall, 746
2. Feliz, 688
3. Inge, 679
4. Miguel Tejada, 673
5. Cabrera, 670

So there you have it. Over the past six and a half seasons, Jason Kendall has played 58 more games without an extra-base hit or steal than anyone else in the major leagues. He's like the opposite of a young A-Rod: a mesmerizing blend of no power and no speed.

Sure is "gritty," though.

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2009: 65-97, 5th in AL Central. Pythagorean record of 66-96.
Key Additions: CF Rick Ankiel, LF Scott Podsednik, 2B Chris Getz, 3B Josh Fields, C Jason Kendall
Key Losses: CF Coco Crisp, 1B Mike Jacobs, IF Mark Teahen, C John Buck and Miguel Olivo
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 77-85, 5th in AL Central. CHONE – 76-86, tied for 4th. CAIRO – 67.5-94.5, 5th.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.36 FIP (16th in MLB), 4.25 for starters, 4.58 for relievers
2010 – The Royals have an elite starter in Zack Greinke and an elite closer in Joakim "The Mexicutioner" Soria, but both the rotation and the bullpen get thin after that. Kansas City definitely could use some help from former No. 1 overall draft pick Luke Hochevar.
Hitting: 2009 – .318 wOBA (24th in MLB)
2010 – The team's offseason additions are not likely to be much help. Royals fans are going to have to just enjoy watching Billy Butler and pray Alex Gordon has a breakout season once his thumb heals.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -49.9 (30th in MLB)
2010 – David DeJesus is a solid outfielder, and pushing Jose Guillen to DH helps, although Ankiel is a downgrade from Crisp in center. Yuniesky Betancourt is a disaster at shortstop, and nobody else on the infield figures to be good enough to make up for it.

Reasons to Watch
1. Rick Ankiel: Ankiel's transformation from star rookie pitcher to walking headcase to major league outfielder is well documented, but now the next chapter in his story is in doubt. There was some early success and big-time power, but last season Ankiel struggled with injuries and slugged just .372. Worse than that, his bat looked slow, and you have to wonder if either pitchers have figured him out, or his body is wearing down after everything he's been through. Still, he's only 30 and it's possible that playing in a low-pressure environment in Kansas City will help.
2. Zack Greinke: Going by wins above replacement, last season Greinke had the best year by a pitcher since Randy Johnson in 2004. It will be difficult for him to pull a repeat of those Cy Young-winning numbers, including a major league-leading FIP. Still, there is a distinct possibility that last season was just the beginning of a terrific run for Greinke, who is still just 26 and has improved steadily. Any time you have a guy with great velocity, great control, command of multiple pitches and an understanding of how to go after hitters, you have something special. Plus, he even appreciates advanced statistics.
3. Yuniesky Betancourt: It seems like it would be nearly impossible for a major league player to be as bad as Betancourt was last season, when he split time between the Mariners and Royals. Between Betancourt's atrocious fielding at shortstop and his weak hitting, he was worth negative 2.2 wins above replacement, 1.2 WAR worse than the closest player. It's also the worst mark of any player since another Royals shortstop, Neifi Perez, put up a negative 3.1 in 2002. Now, there's almost no way Betancourt fails to improve this season, and CHONE projects him at a robust 0.3 WAR, but it will be fun seeing him try.

Paint By Numbers: Last season, 36 major league players got 300 plate appearances and put up a wOBA below .300. The Royals traded for one in the middle of the season (Betancourt) and signed two more in the off-season (Ankiel and Kendall). If you wanted to frame this positively, I guess you could say they are buying low. ... Greinke accounted for 35.1 percent of his team's total wins above replacement last season, the second-highest percentage, just barely behind the Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman. ... Hochever had the highest ERA of any pitcher with at least 100 innings last season at 6.55, and while his 4.84 FIP suggests he got a little unlucky, he still pitched pretty ineffectively. He did flash some potential, pitching one shutout, one complete game in which he gave up one run and one start in which he struck out 13 and walked none in seven innings. But the guy picked ahead of Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw in 2006 has yet to find consistent success.

Blog Jog: As only he can, Joe Posnanski takes a 9,000-word look at the Royals' last decade. ... Rany Jazayerli muses on pitching prospect Tim Melville and his significance (symbolic and otherwise) for the future course of the organization. ... Will McDonald of Royals Review thinks back on KC's Mike Sweeney deal in light of Joe Mauer signing a long extension with the Twins. ... Kings of Kauffman's Wally Fish reacts to the Royals' insistence on sticking with Jose Guillen.

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First off, sorry for the long delay between posts. I’ve taken a new job that involved moving across the country, and things got a little hectic on me.

But now I’m operational again, and it’s coming at the perfect time, as pitchers and catchers start reporting to Spring Training Feb. 17 (although some teams wait until the 21st). To mark the occasion, I’ll be posting a different list looking ahead at the new season every day between now and when the first camps open.

Since there are six days left until Feb. 17, today's list is "6 Most Interesting Off-Season Moves." These aren't necessarily the biggest or most important moves, just the ones that caught my attention the most.

Phillies acquire Roy Halladay from Blue Jays and deal Cliff Lee to the Mariners
This was the biggest deal of the offseason and also the most interesting because of the Phillies' decision to swap aces. Philly could have gotten Halladay and still kept Lee, but apparently felt that would have left their farm system in bad shape. Still, the prospects they gave up for Halladay are more highly regarded than those they picked up for Lee, and you have to wonder whether the difference between the two pitchers is big enough to make it all worthwhile. The Phillies still look like serious World Series contenders this season, but this pair of trades was a little puzzling.

Red Sox sign Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre
Neither Cameron nor Beltre has a particularly bigtime reputation, and they're both low batting average hitters. But both players are productive at the plate and superb with the glove -- Cameron in center field and Beltre at third base. These signings indicate Boston's newfound dedication to run prevention, something the organization shares with other cutting-edge teams like the Mariners and A's. Beltre and Cameron figure to be difference-makers in what could be a very tight AL East race.

Cardinals name Mark McGwire hitting coach; Cubs name Rudy Jaramillo hitting coach
Putting aside the hubub of McGwire's PED admission, his hiring and that of Jaramillo are interesting as they relate to the issue of a batting coach's real impact on a team. The importance of these coaches at the big league level tends to be overstated in my opinion, making them easy scapegoats during tough times. But it will be fascinating to see how these two guys do. The Cubs' offense is poised for a rebound regardless of coaching, as it's hard to believe players like Geovany Soto and Alfonso Soriano will be as bad as they were last season, but Jaramillo has a sterling reputation and could provide an extra boost. McGwire has gotten glowing reviews from players who have worked with him privately and might make a difference for Cardinals hitters not named Albert Pujols.

Royals sign Jason Kendall to a two-year contract
The Royals have made a litany of baffling moves recently, but this signing stands out. How does a team that figures to be nowhere near a playoff race justify not only signing the aging Kendall, but to a two-year deal? Of course, the easy answer is some mythical combination of "veteran leadership" and "grit," but the fact is that Kendall hasn't managed an OBP above .331 or a slugging percentage above .324 the past three seasons. In other words, he's an offensive liability, even for a catcher. The Royals could have signed someone younger and cheaper to do just as poorly, but if they did that, they wouldn't be the Royals.

A's sign Ben Sheets
Sheets missed all of last season after having elbow surgery and has started 25 or more games only once since 2004. But the small-market A's, looking to compete in what figures to be a rough-and-tumble AL West, outbid the competition for his services, inking Sheets to a one-year deal worth $10 million plus incentives. Will Sheets help keep Oakland in the playoff race, or at least stay healthy long enough to get flipped for prospects at the trade deadline? That remains to be seen.

Cubs trade Milton Bradley to Mariners for Carlos Silva
This was one of those classic "our problem for your problem" deals. Bradley had worn out his welcome in Chicago, to put it mildly, having been suspended from the team late in the season. Silva was making a lot of money and pitching terribly in Seattle. Basically this trade boiled down to the Cubs taking on the final two years of Silva's horrid deal in exchange for getting rid of Bradley plus acquiring some cash, which went toward signing Marlon Byrd. But while Bradley's situation in Chicago probably was untenable, he figures to produce a lot more than Silva this season and could be a real asset to the M's.

Tomorrow: 5 Intriguing Players to Watch in '10

Yesterday we looked at possible New Year's resolutions for the National League teams. Today, we give the American League the same treatment.

Baltimore Orioles – Bring in the other Adam Jones for a tryout. He’s not too busy these days, and the team could use some excitement until Matt Wieters breaks out.

Boston Red Sox – Buy a really nice card and a maybe a lovely bouquet for Mike Lowell, to break awkwardness of having him back, at least for now.

Chicago White Sox – Now that Juan Pierre is the starting left fielder, instruct shortstop Alexei Ramirez to go out twice as far as normal to cut off throws.

Cleveland Indians – The starting lineup is going to have a few unproven commodities this season, so bring back Pedro Serrano for some offensive insurance.

Detroit Tigers – Since a lot of Tigers supporters might be saddened by the departure via trade of fan-favorite Curtis Granderson, cheer them up with some discounted General Motors stock.

Kansas City Royals – Keep cornering that market on the worst players in the game. Seriously though, that Jason Kendall signing was superb. Keep up the great work.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – Pick a city and stick with it.

Minnesota Twins – Ink multi-billion dollar deal with hot chocolate manufacturer due to opening of open-air Target Field.

New York Yankees – What the hell, expand payroll to $300 million.

Oakland Athletics – Finally enact Billy Beane’s evil master plan to replace actual flesh-and-blood human players with computers. Start Rookie of the Year campaign for new MacBook Pro.

Seattle Mariners – Come up with a hip, catchy nickname for the new starting pitching duo of Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee. At the same time, alert Seattle media that arrival of free agent Chone Figgins does not mean they are permitted to use phrase, “Gettin’ Figgy with it.”

Tampa Bay Rays – Last season was a bit of a disappointment after the 2008 World Series run, and maybe what was missing was a little bit of an edge or a mean streak. Strike fear into the hearts of opponents by changing team name to “Devil Rays.”

Toronto Blue Jays – Since Vernon Wells is not making himself useful on the field and will be making almost $100 million over the next five years, try to find ways for him to pitch in elsewhere. Maybe he can operate the Rogers Centre roof or something.

Texas Rangers – Now that Darren Oliver is back, really commit to re-living the glory years of the mid-90s. Hey, what’s Rick Helling up to these days?