Hitting The Cutoff Man

You surely know by now that Ken Griffey Jr. retired last week, ending his 22-year career with 630 home runs.

There are so many things to remember about Junior: the sweet swing, the backwards cap, the great catches in center field, and ultimately, the long decline. But what sticks in my mind most about him are two of those 630 bombs -- only one of which I saw.

With a little help from Baseball-Reference.com, I was able to confirm my memory of something which I think sums up Griffey pretty well.

It was July 21, 1996, I was nine years old, and the Mariners were playing a Sunday afternoon game in Anaheim to play the Angels. I had tickets to go to the game with my parents and my friend Chris, a huge Griffey fan. As so often happens in LA, we got stuck in some horrendous traffic and sat helplessly in the car, inching along toward the stadium as the game got started.

Sure enough, Griffey came up in the first inning (facing Jim Abbott, as I now see), and launched a three-run homer to right field. I distinctly remember us sitting in the car, listening to the game on the radio as this unfolded. Chris and I, being nine and huge fans, were crushed. Ken Griffey Jr., probably the premiere star of the day, had hit a home run and we'd missed it.

Well, eventually we got to the stadium and got to our seats. I don't really remember much about the game, but I do remember this: Griffey came up again, this time with all of us watching, and came through. It was his third at-bat of the game, and he smacked another homer to right off Abbott, this one a two-run shot. We were absolutely thrilled.

That was Ken Griffey Jr. in a nutshell. The guy just had a way of giving fans what they wanted, of making watching baseball a fun and fulfilling experience. Whether it was the sugary swing that evoked thoughts of The Natural or the exuberance that said, 'Hey, it's OK to look like you're having fun playing the game,' Griffey at his best was a joy.

Sure, the end was too long and awfully painful to watch, but that's not how I'll remember Griffey. I'll remember him as the guy who made a couple of kids awfully happy (and relieved) one summer day by doing what he did best: hit a baseball really, really hard.

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Before the season started, the ESPN Magazine baseball preview issue came in the mail, with the Seattle trio of Ichiro, Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee on the cover, flicking popcorn at the camera. "Outs are in -- and so are the Mariners," the headline proclaimed.

The idea was that the Mariners' focus on run prevention -- they led the majors with an incredible 85.8 team UZR in 2009 -- would lead them to the playoffs this season.

But while the M's defense has been solid, if not as spectacular as last year, the team is sitting at 12-19 entering play Tuesday and is in last place in the AL West. Lee's stint on the DL didn't help, but that's not the main problem.

The main problem is that outs are in fact "in." They're always "in" in baseball, due to the fact that avoiding them at the plate is the basis for success in the game. The Mariners have been worse at that than almost anyone this year, ranking 13th of 14 AL teams in OBP and 14th in slugging. Their team's weighted on-base average (wOBA) -- essentially a more advanced form of OPS -- is by far the worst in the AL and second-worst in baseball behind the Astros.

Culprits are not hard to come by, since every Mariners hitter besides Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro have been well below average. But nobody is more culpable than Seattle's designated "hitters."

During the off-season, the Mariners' front office had any number of options for filling its DH slot, but after picking up Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and Milton Bradley, among others, essentially decided to try a platoon of Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Sweeney. The main problem with this strategy is that while the DH's only job is to hit, neither Junior nor Sweeney are capable of doing so at the major league level anymore.

The decision to go with the two old guys (Sweeney is 36, Griffey is 40) clearly had something to do with the mystical value of "veteran leadership" and "clubhouse presence." It's understandable, particularly in the case of a Mariners legend like Griffey, but it's also wrong. Everyone knew Seattle needed offense after the team struggled to score runs last season, and management turned over an offense-only position to two guys whose glory days as hitters are long gone and whose days as useful hitters are gone, too. That's far more important than Junior catching some Zs in the clubhouse.

The stats tell the story.

Seattle's wOBA at DH this season (through Monday) is .213, and remember wOBA works on the same scale as OBP. In other words, that's really, really bad. How bad?

-- The White Sox are second-worst this season ... at .284.

-- Last season, the Royals finished last in this category ... at .291.

-- Since 2002, the record for the worst team DH wOBA for a season belongs to ... the 2008 Mariners! Their mark that year was .267.

-- During that 2008 season, Seattle DHs did actually have a month comparable to what they have done so far this season, putting up a .210 wOBA in June thanks to the offensive stylings of Jose Vidro's corpse.

-- To put a .213 wOBA in context: Only one qualified hitter this season, San Diego's Jerry Hairston Jr., has a wOBA lower than that. Last season, the worst wOBA among qualified hitters was .271, courtesy of KC's Yuniesky Betancourt; Mario Mendoza, who inspired the term "Mendoza line" with his weak hitting, had a career wOBA of .231. Six NL teams are getting a wOBA better than .213 so far this season from their pitchers.

-- Some more mainstream stats and the Seattle DHs' AL rank in them this season: .185 batting average (14th), 0 home runs (14th), 8 RBI (14th), 22 hits (14th), 3 extra-base hits (14th), 8 runs (14th). So yes, last in just about everything.

In essence, by sending Griffey and Sweeney out as "designated hitters," the Mariners are doing the equivalent of keeping Bengie Molina on their roster solely to pinch-run.

Now, Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik seems like a smart guy, and this won't go on for forever. It's been suggested Griffey might be on his way out, especially after "nap-gate." Eventually, Sweeney might follow, no matter how good of a guy he is. Reason probably will win out in the long run; Mariners fans will just have to hope it doesn't happen too late.

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2009: 85-77, 3rd in AL West. Pythagorean record of 75-87.
Key Additions: SP Cliff Lee, 2B/3B Chone Figgins, OFs Milton Bradley and Eric Byrnes, 1B Casey Kotchman
Key Losses: 3B Adrian Beltre, 1B Russell Branyan, OF Endy Chavez, SP Carlos Silva
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 82-80, 3rd in AL West. CHONE – 78-84, 4th. CAIRO – 82.6-79.4, 1st.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.39 FIP (20th in MLB), 4.41 for starters, 4.35 for relievers
2010 – Assuming Lee's strained abdominal muscle doesn't turn into a long-term problem, the Mariners have perhaps the best one-two punch in the game, with him and Felix Hernandez. They eventually should get Erik Bedard back as well, but not until at least mid-season, and in the meantime, they are going to have to count on guys like Ian Snell and Ryan Rowland-Smith to hold things together.
Hitting: 2009 – .313 wOBA (26th in MLB)
2010 – Ichiro is Ichiro, and with him and Figgins, the M's can count on a potent top of the order. A healthy, happy and productive Milton Bradley would provide some much-needed oomph to a lineup that's a little short on firepower, but just ask the Cubs about the wisdom of relying on that.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of 85.5 (1st in MLB)
2010 – The Mariners are sort of the darlings of the advanced fielding metrics revolution, and for good reason. Franklin Gutierrez is the Albert Pujols of defensive center fielders, and again, Ichiro is Ichiro. Seattle also has an elite glove at shortstop with Jack Wilson. The decision to swap Figgins and Jose Lopez between second and third base was an interesting one, but it's hard to question an organization that seems to be ahead of the defensive curve.

Reasons to Watch
1. Ichiro: As Joe Posnanski points out in his blog, the word unique is probably overused when it comes to describing baseball players, who tend to fall into one category or another. But not Ichiro, so I don't think Posnanski is exaggerating when he claims: "I don’t think there has ever been a player in baseball history quite like Ichiro Suzuki." JoePo goes on to point out that counting his time in Japan, Ichiro has more hits entering his age 36 season than anyone else, including Pete Rose and Ty Cobb. And of course, he's done it differently than anyone else, with his infield-single generating run-toward-first-as-you-swing maneuver and his ability to seemingly drop the ball in the exact location the defense has left open. Let's all enjoy watching the guy, because chances are, there will never be another Ichiro.
2. Milton Bradley: Nobody is going to argue about Bradley's talent, and I would not dispute the notion that he got some unfair treatment from fans and even some members of the media last season. Still, when you're changing teams nearly every season, in large part because almost every one of your employers develops some sort of problem with you, chances are it says more about you than it does about other people. And yet Bradley refuses to accept this, seemingly clinging to an everyone's-out-to-get-me mentality. In the end, winning is the best source of chemistry, so how Bradley acts in the clubhouse is not as important as how he plays on the field. But if times get tough in Seattle this season, it's probably just a matter of time before there's another incident.
3. Ken Griffey Jr.: The Mariners might have been thinking more with their hearts than their heads when they brought Griffey back for his 22nd season, but even in this golden age of objective analysis, it's hard to blame them. The guy is a franchise icon, and although he's barely a shadow of his former self, he's still got that sweet swing, and he did manage to hit 19 home runs last season. Griffey, who figures to DH against right-handed pitching, likely will retire after this season, making "winning one for Griff" a big goal for Seattle. As a baseball fan, especially one who got into the game during Griffey's prime, it's hard to think of a nicer story than that.

Paint By Numbers: Franklin Gutierrez's UZR in center field last season was a stunning 29.1, which is more amazing considering he had played a total of 29 big league games at the position before 2009. Individual single-season fielding metrics are not terribly reliable, but a number about 11 points better than anyone else's is impossible to ignore, especially since Gutierrez put up a 21.3 UZR in 97 games in right field in 2008. ... Ichiro racked up 50 infield hits last season, 21 more than second-place Michael Bourn, and only six of those came on bunts. He has averaged about 42 infield hits per season since coming to America. ... Chone Figgins first received significant big league playing time in 2003 and posted a 7.4 percent walk rate. Since then, that rate has increased in every single season, culminating in last year's 13.9 percent and career-high .395 OBP.

Blog Jog: At Lookout Landing, Jeff Sullivan suggests some possible reasons why the Mariners waived free agent signee Ryan Garko, while Matthew discusses the relative merits of extra outfielders Eric Byrnes and Ryan Langerhans. ... Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner looks at the bright side of Seattle's health woes, pointing out that April is as good a time as any to be hurting. And coming off a historically good defensive season, Cameron looks at a reasonable expectation for 2010. ... Meanwhile, Cameron explains Seattle's No. 6 finish in FanGraphs' organizational rankings.

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We all remember when we were kids and the athletes we followed and rooted for seemed larger than life and awe-inspiring. Meeting one of our heroes was enough to nearly cripple us.

As fans, this can persist even into adulthood. Through my experience in journalism, I've been fortunate enough to cover a fair amount of MLB games as a reporter, and after a while you get used to talking to the players. Nonetheless, the first time I interviewed Albert Pujols, it required all of my will power to keep my composure and some form of professional demeanor.

You would figure things would be different for the athletes themselves, especially one like Tim Lincecum who has spent the past two seasons coolly mowing down opposing hitters. Think again.

From ESPN.com's Spring Training blog comes this anecdote:

-----
Lincecum, a Seattle native, was taking to reporters after throwing an inning against the Mariners when Ken Griffey Jr. -- a player he rooted for as a boy -- dropped by to say hello.

"Lincecum, what's up? I just wanted to say hi," Griffey said, extending his hand.

"It's a pleasure," Lincecum replied, looking awestruck as he shook Griffey's hand and watched him walk away. "It was nice meeting you," he added as Griffey headed for the Mariners' clubhouse.

Lincecum paused, let out a breath and said, "Man. Wow. He just came over. That was pretty cool."

He paused again. Then, he asked the media surrounding him, "What were we just talking about?"
-----

It's a pretty great image, a two-time Cy Young Award winner briefly turned back into a little kid, pleasantly shaken by a meeting with his baseball idol.

Even if we can't relate to someone throwing 95 miles per hour, we can certainly relate to that.

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Baseball players, particularly ones who have not yet played a Major League game, are often built up to mythic proportions.

It's often said that people fear the unknown, but baseball fans in particular also take the unknown, wrap it in hyperbole and set themselves up for disappointment. Speaking partly from personal experience, I can attest to the fact that fringe prospects can become franchise saviors in a fan's mind.

But what is going on right now with Braves 20-year-old outfield prospect Jason Heyward is something else entirely. Heyward was a first-round pick in 2007, and going into last season, Baseball America rated him the game's No. 5 prospect. Then the 6-foot-4, 220-pound lefty went out and hit .323/.408/.555 at three minor league levels.

Expected to compete for a big league roster spot in Spring Training, Heyward is denting cars in the parking lot of the Braves' facility with his mammoth batting practice shots and drawing comparisons to Hank Aaron.

And so, the myth gains steam.

But is the man equal to the myth, or even in the neighborhood? Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wonders if expectations are too high for the rookie, although he finds Heyward possesses an uncommon maturity that so far has left him unfazed by the attention he's getting.

Still, it's worth wondering, what is a reasonable expectation for Heyward this season?

FanGraphs lists two projections for Heyward, from Bill James and CHONE, and they vary pretty significantly. The James system sees a line of .303/.371/.465, compared with CHONE's much more conservative .258/.324/.416.

Of course, you have to take those numbers with a grain of salt, especially with a rookie whose amount of playing time has not yet been decided.

So I thought it might be informative to look at some other prospects who came up around the same age, and see what they were able to do at the plate as rookies.

Ken Griffey, Jr., 1989, 19 years old -- .264/.329/.420 in 455 AB

Alex Rodriguez, 1994, 19 years old -- .204/.241/.204 in 54 AB.
1995, 20 years old -- .232/.264/.408 in 142 AB.

Andruw Jones, 1996, 19 years old -- .217/.265/.443 in 106 AB
1997, 20 years old -- .231/.329/.416 in 399 AB

Justin Upton, 2007, 20 years old -- .221/.283/.364 in 140 AB

Albert Pujols, 2001, 21 years old -- .329/.403/.610 in 590 AB

That's just a sampling, but it gives you an idea of what Heyward is up against.

He could, as some seem to expect, be another rookie Pujols. It's more likely that he will spend some time in the minors this year and struggle a bit in The Show. That's just how it works -- most of the time.

Then again, there are exceptions, which is what feeds to mythology in the first place. And that's part of what makes baseball great.