Hitting The Cutoff Man

The Dodgers beat the Padres on Monday in a battle of woeful NL West clubs, and like many LA victories these days, the driving force largely consisted of two players. Clayton Kershaw gave up two runs in a complete game, and Matt Kemp doubled, tripled and drove in a run.

You could sum up the Dodgers’ season by saying that nearly everything has gone wrong, except for Kershaw and Kemp. The former is one of the top few pitchers in the National League; the latter is one of the NL’s best position players. The rest of the team has resembled a black hole.

That brought me to this question: Are the Dodgers baseball’s most top-heavy team? There’s no precise way to answer that since “top-heavy” has no precise definition when it comes to baseball teams.

But I took an entirely unscientific shot anyway. For each team, I added the best two players’ FanGraphs wins above replacement (fWAR) -- through Wednesday's games -- and divided that number by the entire team’s. What I found was that my hunch was almost correct, but just like pitchers around baseball, it was foiled by a certain slugger residing north of the border.

Baseball’s five most top-heavy teams

1. Toronto Blue Jays
Jose Bautista (6.9) + Yunel Escobar (4.2) / 26.4 total = 42.05 %
Comment: Bautista holds a sliver of an edge over Dustin Pedroia as baseball’s most valuable player by fWAR. The guy simply is the best hitter on the planet right now, and it’s not close. Escobar, traded from Atlanta to Toronto last season, is vastly outperforming his Braves replacement, Alex Gonzalez.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Matt Kemp (5.3) + Clayton Kershaw (4.7) / 24.3 total = 41.15 %
Comment: The Dodgers only have five other players with even 1 WAR. Meanwhile, Kershaw ranks sixth among MLB pitchers and Kemp seventh among MLB position players. It’s lonely being good at Chavez Ravine this year.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew McCutchen (5.2) + Neil Walker (2.0) / 17.7 total = 40.68 %
Comment: When you look at this, it is both difficult to see how the Pirates hung around near the top of the NL Central standings so long and easy to see why they have been backsliding of late. The Bucs have been a great story but also one with a single strong main character in McCutchen and not much else that promises sustainability.

4. Seattle Mariners
Felix Hernandez (3.7) + Doug Fister (3.0) / 17.0 total = 39.41 %
Comment: Here is a true fact – The Mariners’ top three position players by fWAR are Brendan Ryan, June callup Dustin Ackley and Adam Kennedy. Yeesh. Fister has now been traded to the Tigers, leaving fellow pitcher Michael Pineda (2.7 fWAR) as the team’s second-best performer.

5. Houston Astros
Michael Bourn (3.4) + Hunter Pence (2.5) / 15 total = 39.33 %
Comment: Yep, the Astros’ two best players this year are no longer Astros. The next two guys in line are Clint Barmes and the shell of Carlos Lee. In other words, feel the excitement of Astros baseball!

And in case you were wondering, for some reason, your least top-heavy (most bottom-heavy?) is …

30. Atlanta Braves
Brian McCann (3.6) + Tim Hudson (2.7) / 29.4 total = 21.43 %
Comment: Despite being solidly in playoff position, the Braves have not had too many real standout performers this year. Of course, Bourn is now in the fold, joining a cast of solid players (plus Scott Proctor).

Conclusion: First of all, it's obviously the case that the results would be somewhat different if we measured by each team's top player only or top three players or top four players.

It does make sense that most bad teams rank higher in this rating than most good teams. After all, even bad teams tend to have one or two good players, and their WAR will be a higher percentage of the team's than someone on a good team. But there are exceptions. Four of the bottom five teams are the playoff-contending Braves, Rangers, Yankees and Cardinals, but the Marlins and A's are mixed in with them. The Phillies and Red Sox, baseball's two best teams, rank in the middle of the pack.

So what do we learn? Well, not much. But hey, at least the Dodgers lead the National League in something other than lawsuits.

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Here's an understatement: Things have not gone as planned in Seattle this season.

Here's an even bigger understatement: It's not Cliff Lee's fault.

For anyone not following the virtuoso pitching that has been taking place in the Pacific Northwest this season, Lee currently is on a historic pace. The southpaw, who soon could be traded for the third time in a year, has struck out 76 batters and walked only four heading into Tuesday's start at Yankee Stadium. That's good for a 19-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which as the Baseball-Reference Blog shows, puts him on pace to destroy Bret Saberhagen's single-season record of 11-to-1, set in the strike-shortened 1994 campaign.

That ratio almost certainly will come down some over the course of the season, but Lee has a real shot to break the record.

But while thinking about Lee's amazing season, I wondered about the worst seasons in history in terms of K/BB ratio. After checking the numbers, I'm absolutely shocked at how poor they are.

This season, no pitcher with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title has walked more batters than he has struck out, with Aaron Cook's 1.03/1 mark the lowest (although Washington's John Lannan, just sent to the minors, has 35 BBs and 24 Ks). Last season, the worst K/BB mark was Trevor Cahill's 1.25.

But if you go back through history, you find some stunning numbers.

The ultimate Bizarro Cliff Lee is Ernie Wingard, who pitched four seasons for the St. Louis Browns in the 1920s. In his career (almost 700 innings), Wingard walked more than three times as many batters as he struck out, despite being a nearly league-average pitcher (ERA+ of 96). His worst K/BB actually came in 1925, when he didn't quite qualify for the ERA title, but his rookie year of '24 was almost as bad. Although Wingard posted a 3.51 ERA and a very solid 128 ERA+, he walked 85 compared with 23 strikeouts, for a ratio of 0.27-to-1. Of his 85 walks, 14 were intentional.

That season blows my mind, both for the K/BB ratio itself and for the fact Wingard was able to be so effective in spite of it when we know that ratio has such a strong relationship with a pitcher's success.

Coming in behind Wingard is Merritt Patrick Cain, who went by 'Sugar' but put up some rancid K/BB ratios. His worst in a qualified season came in 1933 for the Philadelphia Athletics, when he managed to issue 137 free passes in 218 innings, while striking out just 43. That's a 0.31-to-1 mark. And yet somehow, like Wingard, Cain didn't have a bad year, posting a 101 ERA+.

There are no players from recent seasons anywhere near the top of the list, but here are your worst K/BB marks since 2000:

1. Nate Cornejo, DET, 2003: 194.2 IP, 58 BB, 46 K, 0.79 K/BB
2. Mike Hampton, COL, 2002: 178.2 IP, 91 BB, 74 K, 0.81 K/BB
3. Kirk Rueter, SF, 2004: 190.1 IP, 66 BB, 56 K, 0.85 K/BB
4. Damian Moss, SF/BAL, 2003: 165.2 IP, 95 BB, 81 K, 0.85 K/BB
5. Jimmy Haynes, MIL, 2000: 199.1 IP, 100 BB, 88 K, 0.88 K/BB

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Before the season started, the ESPN Magazine baseball preview issue came in the mail, with the Seattle trio of Ichiro, Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee on the cover, flicking popcorn at the camera. "Outs are in -- and so are the Mariners," the headline proclaimed.

The idea was that the Mariners' focus on run prevention -- they led the majors with an incredible 85.8 team UZR in 2009 -- would lead them to the playoffs this season.

But while the M's defense has been solid, if not as spectacular as last year, the team is sitting at 12-19 entering play Tuesday and is in last place in the AL West. Lee's stint on the DL didn't help, but that's not the main problem.

The main problem is that outs are in fact "in." They're always "in" in baseball, due to the fact that avoiding them at the plate is the basis for success in the game. The Mariners have been worse at that than almost anyone this year, ranking 13th of 14 AL teams in OBP and 14th in slugging. Their team's weighted on-base average (wOBA) -- essentially a more advanced form of OPS -- is by far the worst in the AL and second-worst in baseball behind the Astros.

Culprits are not hard to come by, since every Mariners hitter besides Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro have been well below average. But nobody is more culpable than Seattle's designated "hitters."

During the off-season, the Mariners' front office had any number of options for filling its DH slot, but after picking up Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and Milton Bradley, among others, essentially decided to try a platoon of Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Sweeney. The main problem with this strategy is that while the DH's only job is to hit, neither Junior nor Sweeney are capable of doing so at the major league level anymore.

The decision to go with the two old guys (Sweeney is 36, Griffey is 40) clearly had something to do with the mystical value of "veteran leadership" and "clubhouse presence." It's understandable, particularly in the case of a Mariners legend like Griffey, but it's also wrong. Everyone knew Seattle needed offense after the team struggled to score runs last season, and management turned over an offense-only position to two guys whose glory days as hitters are long gone and whose days as useful hitters are gone, too. That's far more important than Junior catching some Zs in the clubhouse.

The stats tell the story.

Seattle's wOBA at DH this season (through Monday) is .213, and remember wOBA works on the same scale as OBP. In other words, that's really, really bad. How bad?

-- The White Sox are second-worst this season ... at .284.

-- Last season, the Royals finished last in this category ... at .291.

-- Since 2002, the record for the worst team DH wOBA for a season belongs to ... the 2008 Mariners! Their mark that year was .267.

-- During that 2008 season, Seattle DHs did actually have a month comparable to what they have done so far this season, putting up a .210 wOBA in June thanks to the offensive stylings of Jose Vidro's corpse.

-- To put a .213 wOBA in context: Only one qualified hitter this season, San Diego's Jerry Hairston Jr., has a wOBA lower than that. Last season, the worst wOBA among qualified hitters was .271, courtesy of KC's Yuniesky Betancourt; Mario Mendoza, who inspired the term "Mendoza line" with his weak hitting, had a career wOBA of .231. Six NL teams are getting a wOBA better than .213 so far this season from their pitchers.

-- Some more mainstream stats and the Seattle DHs' AL rank in them this season: .185 batting average (14th), 0 home runs (14th), 8 RBI (14th), 22 hits (14th), 3 extra-base hits (14th), 8 runs (14th). So yes, last in just about everything.

In essence, by sending Griffey and Sweeney out as "designated hitters," the Mariners are doing the equivalent of keeping Bengie Molina on their roster solely to pinch-run.

Now, Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik seems like a smart guy, and this won't go on for forever. It's been suggested Griffey might be on his way out, especially after "nap-gate." Eventually, Sweeney might follow, no matter how good of a guy he is. Reason probably will win out in the long run; Mariners fans will just have to hope it doesn't happen too late.

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2009: 85-77, 3rd in AL West. Pythagorean record of 75-87.
Key Additions: SP Cliff Lee, 2B/3B Chone Figgins, OFs Milton Bradley and Eric Byrnes, 1B Casey Kotchman
Key Losses: 3B Adrian Beltre, 1B Russell Branyan, OF Endy Chavez, SP Carlos Silva
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 82-80, 3rd in AL West. CHONE – 78-84, 4th. CAIRO – 82.6-79.4, 1st.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.39 FIP (20th in MLB), 4.41 for starters, 4.35 for relievers
2010 – Assuming Lee's strained abdominal muscle doesn't turn into a long-term problem, the Mariners have perhaps the best one-two punch in the game, with him and Felix Hernandez. They eventually should get Erik Bedard back as well, but not until at least mid-season, and in the meantime, they are going to have to count on guys like Ian Snell and Ryan Rowland-Smith to hold things together.
Hitting: 2009 – .313 wOBA (26th in MLB)
2010 – Ichiro is Ichiro, and with him and Figgins, the M's can count on a potent top of the order. A healthy, happy and productive Milton Bradley would provide some much-needed oomph to a lineup that's a little short on firepower, but just ask the Cubs about the wisdom of relying on that.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of 85.5 (1st in MLB)
2010 – The Mariners are sort of the darlings of the advanced fielding metrics revolution, and for good reason. Franklin Gutierrez is the Albert Pujols of defensive center fielders, and again, Ichiro is Ichiro. Seattle also has an elite glove at shortstop with Jack Wilson. The decision to swap Figgins and Jose Lopez between second and third base was an interesting one, but it's hard to question an organization that seems to be ahead of the defensive curve.

Reasons to Watch
1. Ichiro: As Joe Posnanski points out in his blog, the word unique is probably overused when it comes to describing baseball players, who tend to fall into one category or another. But not Ichiro, so I don't think Posnanski is exaggerating when he claims: "I don’t think there has ever been a player in baseball history quite like Ichiro Suzuki." JoePo goes on to point out that counting his time in Japan, Ichiro has more hits entering his age 36 season than anyone else, including Pete Rose and Ty Cobb. And of course, he's done it differently than anyone else, with his infield-single generating run-toward-first-as-you-swing maneuver and his ability to seemingly drop the ball in the exact location the defense has left open. Let's all enjoy watching the guy, because chances are, there will never be another Ichiro.
2. Milton Bradley: Nobody is going to argue about Bradley's talent, and I would not dispute the notion that he got some unfair treatment from fans and even some members of the media last season. Still, when you're changing teams nearly every season, in large part because almost every one of your employers develops some sort of problem with you, chances are it says more about you than it does about other people. And yet Bradley refuses to accept this, seemingly clinging to an everyone's-out-to-get-me mentality. In the end, winning is the best source of chemistry, so how Bradley acts in the clubhouse is not as important as how he plays on the field. But if times get tough in Seattle this season, it's probably just a matter of time before there's another incident.
3. Ken Griffey Jr.: The Mariners might have been thinking more with their hearts than their heads when they brought Griffey back for his 22nd season, but even in this golden age of objective analysis, it's hard to blame them. The guy is a franchise icon, and although he's barely a shadow of his former self, he's still got that sweet swing, and he did manage to hit 19 home runs last season. Griffey, who figures to DH against right-handed pitching, likely will retire after this season, making "winning one for Griff" a big goal for Seattle. As a baseball fan, especially one who got into the game during Griffey's prime, it's hard to think of a nicer story than that.

Paint By Numbers: Franklin Gutierrez's UZR in center field last season was a stunning 29.1, which is more amazing considering he had played a total of 29 big league games at the position before 2009. Individual single-season fielding metrics are not terribly reliable, but a number about 11 points better than anyone else's is impossible to ignore, especially since Gutierrez put up a 21.3 UZR in 97 games in right field in 2008. ... Ichiro racked up 50 infield hits last season, 21 more than second-place Michael Bourn, and only six of those came on bunts. He has averaged about 42 infield hits per season since coming to America. ... Chone Figgins first received significant big league playing time in 2003 and posted a 7.4 percent walk rate. Since then, that rate has increased in every single season, culminating in last year's 13.9 percent and career-high .395 OBP.

Blog Jog: At Lookout Landing, Jeff Sullivan suggests some possible reasons why the Mariners waived free agent signee Ryan Garko, while Matthew discusses the relative merits of extra outfielders Eric Byrnes and Ryan Langerhans. ... Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner looks at the bright side of Seattle's health woes, pointing out that April is as good a time as any to be hurting. And coming off a historically good defensive season, Cameron looks at a reasonable expectation for 2010. ... Meanwhile, Cameron explains Seattle's No. 6 finish in FanGraphs' organizational rankings.

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Four more days until the first pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Therefore, it seems like a good time to look ahead to four potentially interesting series on the schedule for this season.

I didn’t include matchups between division rivals here, since those are pretty obvious and provide intrigue every year.

April 12, 14-15, Red Sox @ Twins – On the 12th, outdoor baseball will return to Minneapolis for the first time since 1981, the last year of old Metropolitan Stadium. Ever since, the Twins have been safely tucked away in the ugly but warm confines of the Metrodome. Until this season, that is. Target Field is opening its doors for this prime series against the Red Sox. These two teams figure to put on a good show, as long as they’re not frozen solid. The average temperature in Minneapolis in April is a high of 57 and a low of 36, with the record low being a balmy 2 degrees. At least all three games in this series are day games, with the first night contest taking place to start the following series against the Royals. For the sake of Twins fans, let’s hope Target Field has hot chocolate dispensers in the backs of every seat.

June 22-24, Cubs @ Mariners – This interleague series is certainly interesting on its own merits. These two teams figure to be playoff contenders, and the Cubs have visited Seattle only once before, in 2002. But these three games have another storyline as well: Milton Bradley’s first appearance against his last team. Bradley’s brief tenure in Chicago ended with him getting suspended late in the season. The veteran outfielder might have gotten some undeservedly rough treatment from fans and the media – his on-field performance wasn’t as bad as many perceived – but he never fit in a clubhouse that generally got along well. Even Ryan Dempster, a first-class act, said after Bradley’s suspension, “It became one of those things where you see him putting the blame on everybody else, and sometimes you have to look in the mirror and realize that maybe the biggest part of the problem is yourself and wanting to be there and wanting to play every day and wanting to have some fun. It didn't seem like he wanted to have very much fun, even from Spring Training.” There could be some serious tension here, assuming Bradley is still on the active roster at that point.

June 25-27, Yankees @ Dodgers – This will be the Bronx Bombers’ first trip to Chavez Ravine since 2004. These are two franchise with a ton of history between them, including 11 clashes in the World Series (four since the Dodgers left Brooklyn). And this series figures to come with both squads near or at the top of their respective divisions. A lot will be made of Joe Torre managing against his old club, but what’s really more interesting is what happens on the field, and this series could feature some exciting matchups. Personally I’m eager to see LA’s 22-year-old lefty strikeout machine Clayton Kershaw test his stuff against New York’s nightmare-inducing lineup, or closer Jonathan Broxton try to finish off a close game against A-Rod. Not to mention that Manny Ramirez against the Yankees tends to be entertaining.

Sept. 17-19, Angels @ Rays – Most of the series at the very end of the season are divisional matchups, as they should be, but this is one late-season interdivisional series that could have huge playoff implications. The Rays seem to be in position to stand up to the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East again, while the Angels likely will have their supremacy in the AL West challenged by at least two division competitors. Depending on how things shake out, this could even turn into a crucial battle for a wildcard berth. Plus, you have a showdown of the minds between Mike Scioscia and former bench coach Joe Maddon, now managing Tampa, and Angels pitcher Scott Kazmir potentially squaring off against his old team for the first time.

Tomorrow: 3 teams to keep an eye on