Hitting The Cutoff Man

Imagine this crazy All-Star scenario: a team for each division, creating a six-team tournament. Will it happen? No. Should it happen? Also, no.

But if it did, theoretically, I decided to see what the teams might look like. It was an exercise in curiosity about division strength, and also boredom.

Here is a glimpse at each team, ranked in ascending order of perceived strength. Note: I only picked an abbreviated roster for each squad, because that felt like plenty under the circumstances. Another note: Selections are based on 2011 performance only.

AL Central
Starting lineup: 1. Denard Span - CF, 2. Alex Gordon - LF, 3. Miguel Cabrera - 1B, 4. Paul Konerko - DH, 5. Brennan Boesch - RF, 6. Jhonny Peralta - SS, 7. Alex Avila - C, 8. Wilson Betemit - 3B, 9. Gordon Beckham - 2B
Bench: Asdrubal Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Carlos Quentin, Travis Hafner.
Starting pitchers: Justin Verlander, Justin Masterson, Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker, Phil Humber.
Relievers: Sergio Santos, Glen Perkins, Al Alburquerque.

Comments: It’s going to be super awkward when Beckham walks into the team clubhouse and Miguel Cabrera is all like, “What are you doing here? You have a .291 wOBA as of July 7.” And then Beckham gets all defensive because he wasn’t the one who picked the team, and besides, it’s not his fault the other options at second were Chris Getz and Alexi Casilla. What, does Miguel want to cover the whole right side of the infield by himself? No? That’s what I thought.

AL West
Starting lineup: 1. Howie Kendrick - 2B, 2. Michael Young - DH, 3. Josh Hamilton - LF, 4. Nelson Cruz - RF, 5. Adrian Beltre - 3B, 6. Justin Smoak - 1B, 7. Mike Napoli - C, 8. Peter Bourjos - CF, 9. Elvis Andrus - SS
Bench:Ian Kinsler, Bobby Abreu, Coco Crisp, Erick Aybar
Starting pitchers: Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Felix Hernandez, C.J. Wilson, Michael Pineda.
Relievers: Jordan Walden, Brandon League, Scott Downs.

Comments: This team obviously has the misfortune of drawing from only four organizations. With two of those being the A’s and Mariners, it’s not surprising the offense is a little underwhelming. Luckily, with the Angels not being defending division champs, Mike Scioscia is not this team’s manager, which means he can’t find a way to play Jeff Mathis (even though he’s not on the roster anyways).

NL West
Starting lineup: 1. Carlos Gonzalez - CF, 2. Matt Kemp - LF, 3. Pablo Sandoval - 3B, 4. Troy Tulowitzki - SS, 5. Andre Ethier - DH, 6. Justin Upton - RF, 7. Miguel Montero - C, 8. Todd Helton - 1B, 9. Jamey Carroll - 2B
Bench:Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Cameron Maybin, Chase Headley
Starting pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Daniel Hudson, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner.
Relievers: Heath Bell, Mike Adams, Sergio Romo.

Comments: Frank McCourt is suing this team for using his players without his permission. This has Helton all bent out of shape, but Ethier just looks at him and is like, “Welcome to our world.” Anyways, this lineup has good thump, something the starting pitchers here are confused but excited about. Luckily the clubhouse is stocked with some helpful brochures titled, “Run Support and You: A Guide To Feeling Loved.”

NL Central
Starting lineup: 1. Andrew McCutchen - CF, 2. Rickie Weeks - 2B, 3. Joey Votto - 1B, 4. Matt Holliday - RF, 5. Prince Fielder - DH, 6. Ryan Braun - LF, 7. Aramis Ramirez - 3B, 8. Yadier Molina - C, 9. Starlin Castro - SS
Bench:Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Brandon Phillips, Michael Bourn
Starting pitchers: Jaime Garcia, Chris Carpenter, Shaun Marcum, Zack Greinke, Matt Garza.
Relievers: Joel Hanrahan, John Axford, Sean Marshall.

Comments: “Look at all these good players!” Castro says to Ramirez. “They’re on OUR team now!” Ramirez sighs deeply and nods. Memories of the old days flood his head and push a single tear down his weathered cheek. It’s hard to think about but impossible not to. “Live in the moment and enjoy it,” he advises Castro. “People in our situation must savor the good times, fleeting as they are.” Castro looks at his older teammate, sees how the years in Chicago have beaten him down. “Sure, Aramis,” he says. “I got ya.” But he doesn’t truly understand -- not yet.

NL East
Starting lineup: 1. Jose Reyes - SS, 2. Shane Victorino - CF, 3. Gaby Sanchez - 1B, 4. Carlos Beltran - LF, 5. Brian McCann - C, 6. Mike Stanton - RF, 7. Mike Morse - DH, 8. Danny Espinosa - 2B, 9. Placido Polanco - 3B
Bench:Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Daniel Murpy, Martin Prado
Starting pitchers: Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Jair Jurrjens, Jordan Zimmermann.
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Ryan Madson.

Comments: The great thing about an all-star team is getting to imagine what it would be like if a bunch of great players got thrown together and could join forces. Like, imagine a one-two punch at the top of a lineup of Jose Reyes and Shane Victorino. What energy! Or, imagine if you could field a starting rotation with Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels AND Cliff Lee! Why, that would be insane!

AL East
Starting lineup: 1. Jacoby Ellsbury - CF, 2. Curtis Granderson - LF, 3. Jose Bautista - RF, 4. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B, 5. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, 6. David Ortiz - DH, 7. Ben Zobrist - 2B, 8. Yunel Escobar - SS, 9. Matt Wieters - C
Bench:Mark Teixeira, Dustin Pedroia, Matt Joyce, Brett Gardner
Starting pitchers: CC Sabathia, David Price, James Shields, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester.
Relievers: Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Jonathan Papelbon.

Comments: “Hey Zobrist,” Shields says, “Did you hear the exciting news? ESPN is going to broadcast all of our all-star team’s games! That’s some great exposure!” Zobrist looks down at his shoes, feeling awkward. James is so clearly thrilled, and it would be a shame to bring him down. But it’s just like his grandpa always said: Tell the truth, even if it hurts. He closes his eyes and steels himself for the task ahead. “Yes, I heard,” Zobrist says. “But there’s something you should know. When nobody on the Red Sox or Yankees is either pitching or batting, they are going to cut to a reel of Jeter’s career highlights.”

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2009: 86-77, 2nd in AL Central. Pythagorean record of 81-82.
Key Additions: LF Johnny Damon, SP Max Scherzer, CF Austin Jackson, RPs Jose Valverde, Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke
Key Losses: CF Curtis Granderson, 2B Placido Polanco, SPs Edwin Jackson and Jarrod Washburn, DH Marcus Thames, RPs Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 79-83, tied for 2nd in AL Central. CHONE – 76-86, tied for 4th. CAIRO – 80.3-81.7, 4th.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.53 FIP (25th in MLB), 4.45 for starters, 4.66 for relievers
2010 – The top of the rotation looks great with Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello, and Scherzer is promising, if a bit of an injury risk. The rest of the staff is questionable, although Jeremy Bonderman -- who has started 13 games since 2007 -- could provide a lift if healthy. Valverde's not great, but he should help a bullpen that struggled in 2009.
Hitting: 2009 – .327 wOBA (14th in MLB)
2010 – Miguel Cabrera is one of the best hitters in baseball, but outside of him, the Tigers are relying on declining stars (Magglio Ordonez, Johnny Damon, Carlos Guillen) and unproven youngsters (Austin Jackson, Scott Sizemore).
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -43.6 (5th in MLB)
2010 – The left side of Detroit's infield is superb, with Adam Everett and Brandon Inge. But two-thirds of the Tigers' up-the-middle defense (Jackson and Sizemore) is relatively untested at the big league level.

Reasons to Watch
1. Rick Porcello: At the age of 20 and with no experience above Single-A, Porcello came up last season and went 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA. That's quite an accomplishment and certainly portends a bright future for Porcello, but 2010 could be a different story. As a rookie, he struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings and allowed 23 home runs, leading to a 4.77 FIP. CHONE projects Porcello for a a 4.97 ERA this year, so we'll have to see if he can avoid a sophomore slump with his ground ball-inducing prowess.
2. Miguel Cabrera: Cabrera had some unpleasant issues to deal with during the offseason. Now, he can go back to doing what he does best: hitting the crap out of baseballs. Cabrera has put up at least a .399 wOBA in four of the past five years, and he's still only turning 27 next month. That means we can still enjoy watching him in his prime.
3. Adam Everett: Everett is unquestionably a terrible hitter -- his career-high OPS is .703 -- and at 33 years old, he's not getting any better. Yet major league teams have allowed Everett to step to the plate 2,914 times in his career for one simple reason: Once he makes an out, he can go back to playing shortstop, where he's racked up a career UZR/150 of 18.3. The man is a human vacuum.

Paint By Numbers: Joel Zumaya threw the ball harder than anyone else last season with an average fastball velocity of 99.3 mph, but that didn't result in a good performance. Zumaya walked more than six batters per nine innings on the way to a 5.58 FIP. Of course, Zumaya has made just 78 appearances over the past three years while fighting injuries. ... Brandon Inge's OPS was .876 in the first half of 2009 and .542 in the second half. ... According to FanGraphs' pitch values, the Tigers' staff had two of the best fastballs in the game last season. Justin Verlander's heater ranked sixth and Rick Porcello's was 13th. But the two pitches were quite different. Verlander's went an average of 95.6 mph and is designed to generate swings and misses, while Porcello's averaged 90.9 mph and is designed to get ground balls.

Blog Jog: Kurt Mensching of Bless You Boys analyzes the news of Armando Galarraga getting optioned to Triple-A and what that means for the Tigers' pitching staff. ... Tiger Geist provides a status report near the mid-point of Spring Training. ... Kirkland Crawford of the Free Press looks at how Placido Polanco ended up in Philadelphia, putting Scott Sizemore in the lineup on Opening Day. ... MLB.com's Jason Beck says the Tigers are trying to figure out Zumaya's fastball.

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My last post about Eric Chavez was an apt lead-in to yesterday's news that Nomar Garciaparra was retiring. As Rob Neyer phrased it, Nomar's career was "an excellent object lesson in the non-inevitability of immortality."

Garciaparra was on his way to becoming an absolute, no-doubt Hall of Famer until the injuries started chipping away at him.

It's amazing to look back now on the 2000 season. That year was Nomaaaaaaaah's best, as he hit .372/.434/.599, won the AL batting title and punched up a career-high 155 OPS+.

It's funny though -- immortality is certainly not inevitable, but even if Nomar isn't a Hall of Famer, he's a guy people will remember for a long time. If you look at other guys who had great seasons in 2000 (just 10 years ago!) it's stunning how quickly players of a somewhat lower quality become completely irrelevant.

For example, who were the top 10 in batting average in the majors in 2000? Nomar was one, and Todd Helton, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Delgado and Derek Jeter appear on the list too.

The rest of that list inspired me to scratch my head and go, "THAT guy?"

In 2000, it's difficult to remember, Darin Erstad and Moises Alou hit .355, Jeffrey Hammonds hit .335 and David Segui hit .334, all finishing in the top 10. This same year, Richard Hidalgo finished fifth in home runs, and the top 10 in ERA included Jeff D'Amico, Chan Ho Park and Rick Ankiel.

The fact is, nothing is inevitable in baseball. If you look at last year's leaders, you can confidently predict that Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer will go down as two of the greatest players of all time, Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera will eventually cruise into the Hall and Joey Votto and Pablo Sandoval have years of All-Star games and MVP votes ahead of them.

But reality is a lot messier than that. Chances are, injuries will sap somebody's potential before it fully blooms, and someone else's career will fizzle out just as quickly as it erupted in the first place.

We'll just have to stay tuned to find out who.

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