Hitting The Cutoff Man

In Internet time, last year’s headlines might as well be living in a cave, dressed in animal skins and carrying a spear. Time moves quickly, and the recent past is buried under the crushing weight of fresh news.

Out of curiosity, I hopped into my time machine and set out on a dangerous voyage to find those ancient, long-forgotten headlines. My target time: the days surrounding Nov. 16, 2010. My target location: NBC Sports’ HardballTalk, my go-to site for quick takes on the latest news and rumors around Major League Baseball. What follows is the strange bounty of that exploration.

Headline: Royals not willing to “dump” former top prospect Alex Gordon

Result: Kansas City kept Gordon and made him their starting left fielder.

How’d that work out? The Royals, get this, made the right call (cue the marching band and release the balloons!). Gordon broke out, hitting .303/.376/.502 and was worth 5.9 WAR. File this under “sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make.”



Headline: Cardinals expected to aggressively pursue Juan Uribe

Result: Uribe signed a three-year, $21 million deal with the Dodgers instead, and the Cardinals traded for Ryan Theriot and signed Nick Punto to bolster their infield.

How’d that work out? Compared with Uribe, Theriot and Punto were Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker. Still, Theriot was pretty bad, and Punto was hurt a lot. At one point, St. Louis’ infield was so thin, Albert Pujols actually played third base, but the team eventually got Punto and David Freese back and traded for Rafael Furcal, and the rest was recent history.

Headline: Athletics interested in Lance Berkman as designated hitter

Result: Berkman signed with the Cardinals instead, and the A’s went with Hideki Matsui.

How’d that work out? Berkman defied critics both by being less than a complete disaster in the outfield and by hitting like the old Puma at the plate (.301/.412/.547) on his way to a ring. With Matsui leading the “charge,” Oakland designated “hitters” “hit” .245/.313/.390. Wrong lottery ticket, Billy!


Headline: Shin-Soo Choo is trying to slug his way out of the army

Result: Choo did in fact lead South Korea to a gold medal at the Asian Games, freeing him of his two-year commitment to his country’s armed forces.

How’d that work out? Choo lived happily ever after! Well, actually, this was basically the last good thing that happened to Choo all season. He played only 85 games between multiple DL stints, hit an extremely disappointing .259/.344/.390 and was nabbed for an embarrassing DUI.


Headline: Brad Penny is going to be in the best shape of his life.

Result: “Best shape of his life,” one of the more amusing off-season cliches every year, is sort of subjective, so you can judge for yourself. Here is Brad Penny on April 28, 2011. Sexy!

How’d that work out? Great shape or not, Penny posted probably the worst full season of his career, giving up 11.0 hits per nine innings with a 1.19 K/BB ratio and a 5.02 FIP for the Tigers. Maybe watching TV and eating Doritos is the way to go this offseason.


Headline: The Cardinals will try to lock up Pujols before Christmas

Result: St. Louis signed its franchise player to a relatively team-friendly contract in early December. What’s that? (Puts fingers in ears). Lalalala can’t hear you, lalalala can’t hear you!

How’d that work out? Great!


Headline: Adam Dunn wants at least three years and $40 million

Result: He got it! A couple of weeks later, Dunn signed a four-year, $56 million deal with the White Sox.

How’d that work out? Rather than throwing out a bunch of stats, I will simply lead you to this visual representation.


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2009: 83-78, 2nd in NL Central. Pythagorean record of 84-77.
Key Additions: CF Marlon Byrd, RF Xavier Nady, SP Carlos Silva
Key Losses: RF Milton Bradley, 1F/OF Jake Fox, SP Rich Harden, RP Kevin Gregg
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 80-82, 2nd in NL Central. CHONE – 79-83, 4th. CAIRO – 83.8-78.2, 3rd

Pitching: 2009 – 4.11 FIP (7th in MLB), 3.95 for starters, 4.45 for relievers
2010 – The starting pitching should be solid again, but the bullpen bears watching. Closer Carlos Marmol is electric but erratic and with Angel Guzman out for the year, the right side of the pen is very inexperienced. That's not necessarily bad but makes the unit's fortunes less predictable.
Hitting: 2009 – .323 wOBA (21st in MLB)
2010 – The offense is due for a rebound, as guys like Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto should bounce back somewhat from abysmal years. A healthy season from Aramis Ramirez would be a big help as well.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -19.8 (21st in MLB)
2010 – Byrd isn't a great center fielder, but he'll help just by pushing Kosuke Fukudome back to his much more natural right field. Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot (when he plays) make for a good combo in the middle infield.

Reasons to Watch
1. Carlos Marmol: You never know what's going to happen when Marmol enters the game. He could walk three straight hitters or strike out three straight, or even do one after the other. With Gregg gone and Guzman out, the Cubs are counting on Marmol to find the strike zone often enough to hold down leads, but you can bet it won't be a smooth ride.
2. Alfonso Soriano: To say 2009 was a rough season for Soriano but be understating things considerably. Limited to 117 games by a knee injury that also left him playing hurt a lot of the time, Sori was dreadful at the plate and in the field, culminating in a negative WAR total for the year. He's almost sure to improve considerably this time around, but will he improve enough to make his remaining contract look anything other than horrendous?
3. Carlos Silva: The Cubs had to take Silva off the Mariners' hands in order to get rid of Milton Bradley this offseason. But coming off an 8.60 ERA in eight games last season and a 6.46 mark in 28 games the year before, Silva appears to be a contender for the fifth spot in the rotation. If Silva can manage to turn his career around, it would make the Bradley dump a little more palatable.

Paint By Numbers: Of all pitchers who threw at least 50 innings last season, Marmol had the sixth-highest K/9 ratio at 11.31 but also the second-highest BB/9 ratio at 7.91. Marmol's .171 batting average against trailed only Jonathan Broxton. ... In his 2008 rookie season, Geovany Soto put up a .332 BABIP (comapred with the league average of about .300), but last season that number fell to .246, helping to explain Soto's steep decline. If Geo bounces back in 2009, many will say it's because he got in shape, but a closer to average BABIP likely will play a role as well. ... Ryan Theriot hit seven home runs in his first three big league seasons. He then hit seven in 2009, with all of them coming between May 1 and June 29. Perhaps in looking for more power, Theriot gave up some plate discipline, as his K/BB ratio dropped from a superb 1.26 in 2008 to a below-average 0.55 last season.

Blog Jog:Dave Szymborski of ESPN.com's Max Info blog projects Alfonso Soriano's 2010 performance, factoring in the impact of new hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo. ... Another Cubs Blog's mb21 takes Szymborski's work a step further by applying the "Jaramillo Effect" to the rest of the Cubs' projected regular hitters. ... ACB also takes a look at how the Cubs' bullpen is shaping up at this point in Spring Training and how that will affect the makeup of the 40-man roster. ... Brad from Cubs Stats considers the prospect of a "retooled" Carlos Silva.

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